If the E-Cat is Real . . . (You Predict)

As October begins the attention of many is turning Rossiwards. Some are already convinced of the validity of Rossi’s E-Cat claims, while others are firmly skeptical. Hopefully it won’t be long before we know which of these camps is right. There are announced events coming up which should prove to convince many uncertain observers one way or another whether Rossi has truly discovered a breakthrough technology.

So while we are waiting for reports from these tests, I thought it might be fun and perhaps informative to ask this question, and see what predictions people came up with:

What if the E-Cat is Real? That is, if as Rossi claims, it really does produce useful energy in a newly discovered way that is far cheaper than anything discovered to date.

I will kick off with some short predictions, and then throw the floor open to anyone who cares to offer other responses (use the comment box). As answers come in, I’ll update the post. Let’s try and keep our predictions reasonably short term, I’d like to review these predictions a year from now and see which were accurate — this is just for a bit of fun — no one will be shamed if they are wrong!

1. Academic textbook publishers will get busy printing new editions.
2. Sculptors and street sign makers will be busy making Rossi statues and streetnames.
3. Oil boomtowns in the US and Canada will see sharp reversals of fortune within a year.
4. Gasoline prices will see a sharp decline within a few months.
5. Railroad freight will drop significantly with the decrease of coal shipments to power stations.
6. The US Congress will hold hearings on the safety of the E-Cat.
7. Wind farm and solar plant projects around the world will shut down.
8. At least fifty new books about the E-Cat will be available on Amazon.com
9. The E-Cat will be featured in political campaign ads.
10. Andrea Rossi will visit the White House.

  • Danny

    Currencies of major oil exporters surge (inversely).

    • Luca Salvarani

      Could you explain me why, please? It would be very interesting for me!

      I’m unable to undestand… Indeed in this scenario major (gas, coal and oil) exporters will have virtually nothing to export but can’t stop their import, for istance food in Saudi Arabia… So why other countries should (expecially tipical export based ones like Germany) give Saudi Arabia their products in exchange of nothing? And how could Saudi Arabia buy those products without huge oil cash flows? … The only possible way is Germany should finance Saudi Arabia import of german products.. But it doesn’t make sense! You finance someone only if you believe that he can refund you in the future or you don’t finace him at all (subprime was the exception roves the rule)! But how can Saudi Arabia, without oil cash flows, ever refund germans? Which will be its exchangeable assats, obviously not pieces of desert… Saudi Arabia simply can’t affortd any refund! it would be impossible! so in practice Germany should work hard to Saudi Arabia for free….the identical pattern of current Euro-crisis if you replace Saudi Arabia with Greece or Italy! At hiat point if german corporation should work for free has more sense working for themselves and not for Saudi Arabia…. do you agree? So this option seems me very very difficult, not to say impossibile!
      So Saudi Arabia will be obliged to deeply and quickly restructure its economy (because oil cash flows is not only for import, but also to subidize nearly every wasteful domestic economic activity… ) for istance devaluing its currency and making itself more attractive for foreign investors. The appreciation of its currency would be a further shock for Saudi Arabia collapsing economy… and why large banks, hedge funds, insurances… should sell currencies of winning countries (such as oil importers, like US) and buy currencies of loosing and probably defautinf countries…. indeed this is the only way your scenario could occur…..maybe I’m missing something… Please explain me, thanks a lot!

      Warm regards Luca Salvarani from Mantua.

  • H. Hansson

    “Pax Americana” will go (read more about the concept on Wikipedia).

    This will accelerate the development in the Arab states and the situation will go AWOL. USA can not act because USA has neither the financial nor the military resources anymore (or political will) to impose their way (Hegemony).

    When a new system replace a older system It will always be a transition that means conflicts (WAR). But in the long run this will be good for us.

  • Africa will grow economically

    • Luca Salvarani

      It’s difficult to say…. indeed commodities are right now their only valuable asset… With e-cat what could they export us? In my previous comment I have conjectured about the Saudi Arabia situation… There’s also an other asset such as low cost labour work but due to software, robotization, automation and so on… it would be much less valuable than today…. Africa growth depends on completely different factors such as deep social, economic reforms and adoption of our cultural values… things very difficult to such backward countries.. For us is much better do without Africa, not only in economic sense!

      Luca Salvarani from Mantua.

    • I think you’re right on this one. I think that free energy will give Africa something that they desperately need to develop agriculture and industry.

      • Luca Salvarani

        E-cat certainly turn that easier, you’re right! But it can’t replace deep reforms and expecially tremendous cultural advancements!… For istance agriculture (and related desalination to get water) would turn easier and cheaper but if you fear someone will steal your products or expropriate your lands it’ s all more risky and complicated! For istance Zimbabwe was one of the more avanced and richest countries of Africa… but now is collapsing, only few years after blacks went to power (not because of skin color! I’m truly not a racist! but because natives don’t even undestand the reforms I have written about.. what them really mean and entail…). If you simply treat womens, so nearly half of your citizens, as slaves or as unound minds at best, you are stupidly wasting 1/2 of your potential (ethical isues apart) and e-cat can’t solve this…. For Africa only e-cat could be nearly indifferent or even counter-productive without reforms and cultural advancements, their true emergencies!

  • Roger Barker

    The test on October the 6th will leave us with yet more questions then answers.

    • Brusse

      How do you know that? Please explain.

      • Roger Barker

        Wait and see.

  • Anon

    -In the very short term there will be destabilization of the global economic system. Recession, and in some cases civil war, followed by a quick settling. Something like what was seen in Egypt and other countries recently. Growing pains really, as the life blood of the dominant economic paradigm changes from an increasingly rare and geographically restricted commodity to basically water and pocket change.

    -Within five years commercial space flight and the mining of Mars starts to be realized as practical and profitable.

    -Personal Robotics sees a boom on par with personal computing.

    -People work less and spend more time in hobby and educational pursuits. As a result a sort of modern renascence takes place with the term ‘cottage-industry’ taking on a whole knew life and meaning.

    -Things like basic food and shelter become unthinkable to not provide to people relative to the cost.

    I have more, but restraining it to the next 5 or 10 years limits it. With in one year things will just look crazed as the world adjusts.

  • Hampus ericsson

    I agree with you Anon, But I don’t know if there will be any “war”, I think this will effect the economy positively right away.

    Lower energy cost will mean lower cost, at first companies will make big money on lowering the price just a little bit, but the market will fix that in due time.

    Lower cost is gonna kick start the economy. In a very short term view we here in sweden can grow our own vegs, and heat up our cities. Maybe we can even put a big glass dome over Stockholm to heat it up during the winters :).

    People are gonna travel much more with all kinds of transport, cars, trains, flight.

    This is maybe 20-30 years up the road(haha) but I know we will create flying cars. Energy have been the big problem for flying cars but with cold fusion we have enough. The biggest issue with flying cars is the new infrastructur. Are the flying cars on auto drive? Do you need a flying permit? Where can you fly where can’t you fly?

    The question is what are we gonna do with all the roads? I suggest we remake them into bike lanes.

    There are soo many impacts this will have on society, it is just impossible to name them all :). That’s why we call it “The new fire”. It really is as big as when we discovered fire the first time.

    I am gonna stop rambling now.

    I just wonder how mars is like, I can’t wait till I go there. I have already planned it in my calendar 🙂

    • “I think this will effect the economy positively right away” Put yourself in the boots of the King of Saudi Arabia and say that. Put yourself in the boots of the CEO of Exxon and say that. There will be turmoil. Many will see the revelation of the e-cat as the worst day of their lives. Transformation is never smooth.

      • Hampus

        What can they do? Ofc some ppl are gonna loose there jobs but I don’t see a war coming. The people with money are just gonna start investing in cold fusion, they will keep being rich.
        Maybe it’s just me being naive I live in sweden and things are pretty calm here.

      • Matt

        It’s easy to pick out people who this will negatively effect, but you can do that any technology just ask the post office. The economy as a whole will benefit though and Hampus is right, the rich will reinvest their considerable wealth wherever it will make them the most money. I don’t think any CEO is going to start a war over this technology. Saudi Arabia on the other hand… well still don’t think it would go that far, seeing as they have a lot of land that would benefit from desalination.

    • charlie sutherland

      With decentralization of activities, a scattering of population to the country, and all needs for survival portable, the economic need to travel will decrease but the desire to travel to sight-see will increase. It will be an interesting world. And, no one will be in much of a hurry as our time becomes more our own and not that of an employer.

  • ups

    Untill oil is over-Rossi never will be on CNN,bloomberg. It is more possible people will learn about the e-cat from neighbor then from main mediastream. just look at the profits of main oil guys 18b. 30b. 15 b. and so on. That is why the development of e-cat will be silent without a pathos. And Rossi should do all posible for personal security. I dont like conspiracy theories, but we live in really evil world if only you have not “invent ed” facebook, and other useless for humanity web startups which are not dangerous for “sponsors of democracy”. I hope i was wrong!!!

  • Aj

    World population growth surges.
    Water and food scarcity lead to wars, like the world has never seen before.

    • I doubt your hypothesis. It seems that the more modern a country gets, the slower its population grows. The e-cat will make water purification affordable, and will turn any land into arid land.

    • Gray Champion

      Agreed. But there will be enough to feed them.

    • Lloyd

      World population slowsdown because women get access to electric power, build businesses, develop greater economic freedoms, increase choices and utilise contraception.

    • Matt

      I think you’re about 60 years late with that prediction, as that is what happened when oil became the world’s leading source of energy.

  • paul42

    There will be a technological revolution as just about every company tries to come up with a way to make money on this new technology. The demand for products using this will be enormous, which will drive up the competition for scientists and engineers that can develop those products.

    It will change the world in ways we mostly cannot foresee.

    Some things like concrete & aluminum are highly dependent on energy prices. What happens when they become a lot cheaper, and the cost of other things such as wood are relatively unaffected? Many plastics are dependent on oil prices. What happens when they become much cheaper, but other materials do not?

    As wealth and power changes hands, there will be conflict. But change will happen regardless.

  • John Dlouhy

    After one year there would still be insufficient market penetration to have any visible effects in our economy.

    • Luca Salvarani

      I agree! But like many succesful start ups the growth will be exponential… thinks about Microsoft for istance…. It doesn’t take a long time for visible effects.

    • It will not need market penetration to have effects, it will only need for people to see the effects coming. Consider that you are in the oil business, for instance. Your company has a certain amount of oil reserves. First, are you going to continue exploration? Nope. So ends all geology businesses, all pipeline construction, all hydroelectric development. Second, will you want to sell as much oil at $80 per barrel now as you can or are you going to want to wait 3 years when the price of oil is $15? Oil producers are this smart. As soon as the e-cat is well known and verified (I say 6 months) these effects will take place in a big hurry! I think by a year we’ll be seeing the effects of the e-cat all over the place even though the only way we’ll be able to buy one is as a home heater.

      • Luca Salvarani

        I’m perfectly in line with you… financial effects will accelerate the process!

    • John Dlouhy

      How many E-Cats would it take to diminish present energy demand by a trivial 1%?

      The world consumes about 15 terawatts of power on average and is increasing by about 2% per year. To lessen the world’s present demand of conventional energy sources by a very small 1%, enough E-Cats would have to be built and installed in a years time to offset 1% of the world demand plus the 2% that it would have grown in that period. That’s a total of 3% of 15 terawatts supplied by 10 kW modules.

      3% X 15 TW (15 000 gigawats) = 450 gigawatts = 450 000 000 kilowatts

      450 000 000 KW ÷ 10KW E-Cat = 45 million E-Cats.

      It would take 45 MILLION E-Cats, built, installed, and operating within 1 years time for conventional energy suppliers to see a 1% drop from today’s demand.

      That seems highly unlikely but even if it happened, a 1% drop in conventional demand would not be significant.

      • s

        Good calcs, John D. Keep in mind that over 70 million automobles were produced last year and autos have complex moving parts, a size usually over 20 times that of the ecat, and many tests and safety regulations the vehicles must pass. The ecat has one complex part (the core), no moving parts as far as i can tell, and a seemingly simple design.

        If one person can assemble 5 ecats per day on a modern manufacturing line, that person can make 1200 ecats in a 240 workday year. So, you would only need about 40000 people to make ~45million ecats in a year. Even if a person can only make 1 ecat per day, it would only take ~200000 people to make the ecats in a year. Given that all ecats to date, perhaps over 100, have probably been made mostly by hand and not with a modern manufacturing line, 1 per day is probably very conservative.

        The fact that (worst case) 200,000 people can make enough ecats to replace 1% of the worlds energy in a year, and only 2 million could make enough ecats to replace 10% of the worlds energy in a year is why people think this tech is so disruptive.

      • s

        The number above should be 800,000 workers worst case to replace 10% total +2% growth rate of electricity and not 2million.

  • David

    The skeptics will claim “victory” in the discussion by claiming that the Ecat is generating energy by a process that is not “truly fusion”. They will do so to save face even as their computers becoming tied to these “non fusion” reactors.
    Oil prices will begin to slide but oil will continue to be needed for gasoline and plastics. The amount needed and cost will drop enough that western economies will boom from the savings generated.
    Converting ecats to direct transportation needs will take years. Other power sources like coal and natural gas that are used for heat and electricity will be adversely impacted much more quickly.
    Research money will flow toward LENR programs in ever larger amounts. The technology will improve quickly. Research into fission and hot fusion will suffer most from this. Solar power will still hold promise and research into this technology will continue.
    Within a year gas prices in the west will offset the loss of jobs in the current power industries. New factories will be under construction all over the world setting off an economic boom. All of this funded by the billions saved by consumers as energy speculators sell down the cost of oil.

  • Gray Champion

    Think of all the worthless land that will be able to be farmed when it becomes cost effective to pump water. A device that does what the e-cat claims to do will bring water to the parched deserts of the sahara, gobi, arabean and the southwestern US. Barren and desolate places will become cornucopias and breadbaskets feeding the inhabitants of the earth. And imagine the third-world places that will benefit with pure clean water to drink and bathe in. The children in these places will be able to go to school instead of haul water all the time. Sickness and disease will retreat from the supply of fresh clean water. We will then discover that “the earth is full and that there is enough and to spare.”

    • Hampus

      Truly inspiring words. Water is the most important thing for a society. Let’s make the world green again 🙂

  • Luca Salvarani

    A very secondary but however positive effect:

    No more arrogant billionaires seiks ruining our sport (and its real values) with their petro-dollars.. Pick a camel and go back home please!

  • Lloyd

    Coal seam gas, fracking etc.. will be abandoned.

    Gas turbine electrical generation abandoned in favour of ecat.

    Fall in share prices of gas companies.

    Coal electrical generation abandoned in favour of ecat.

    Fall in share prices of coal companies.

    Japan, China and India abandon conventional uranium reactors. Uranium prices fall further.

    Fall in share prices of nuclear mining companies.

    Decentralisation of communities. Home and water heating via ecat.

    Conversion of arid desserts into farmland with fresh water converted from the sea.

    Cheaper land and ship travel.

    Africa and India to benefit the most as slums get access to cheap abundant energy for the first time in history.

    Greeening of the earth, which should slowdown and possibly reverse climate change caused by global warming.

    Use of ecats as weapons by terrorists.

    • Lloyd

      Electrification of cars. Obsolescence of petrol pumps within 15 years. Increased street lighting.

      Electrical and electronic engineers in high demand.

      Collapse of renewable energy industries – wave, solar and wind.

    • You think that the greening of the earth will have more effect on anthropocentric global warming that the abandoning of fossil fuels will?

      • Lloyd

        Will it matter either way?

    • baabaablacksheep

      I don’t see weaponry coming directly out of this technology. Remember, this is Low Energy, and the makers of both crude and advanced weapons like stuff that’s High Energy.

      It would enable the manufacturing and transport of other types of weapons, though.

      • Achi

        Depending on how small and how portable you can make an e-cat I can imagine several weapons that could be made to use it. However, using an e-cat directly as a weapon isn’t going to happen. Using it to improve or realize other weapon designs is inevitable.

  • Neil Ferguson

    I pretty much agree with David. Elaborating, the tremendous capital costs for new energy production and conversions, aside from fuel, will limit the rate of E-Cat’s spread. It will NOT make energy free. I’m guessing overall it will reduce cost by one third to one half, but only after 20-30 years. Here are some guesses, mostly with respect to wealthier economies and U.S. dollars:
    I predict the most immediate major impact will be on existing coal-fired power plants. It will take around five years of R and D to design technically mature high capacity E-Cat boilers that can be dropped into existing or new power plants and get them past government regulators. But given the almost immediate payback, I expect industry to tool up very fast. I’d guess conversions will be complete in 10 more years. Thereafter, all new power plants will run on E-Cat.
    Gas and nuclear power plants may be more of a problem, requiring different machinery, thus higher conversion costs. Gas plants may be kept for some years to provide peak power until the bulk of coal conversions are finished. It’s a matter of specific cost considerations at the moment. Nuclear plants will probably be retired soon after the first coal conversions, if only for political reasons.
    As for new power plants worldwide, consider that China and India are even now building power plants as fast as they can. But still it will be decades before those countries are fully industrialized. I don’t think that rate of electrification will increase a whole lot more with E-Cat’s. Some faster, but not a lot. Capital equipment costs – for turbines, dynamos, distribution systems – will continue to limit progress, though the cost of fuel no longer does.
    How E-Cat’s will play out in home heating and air conditioning is a mystery. It will be probably be very dependent on how E-Cat research and development unfolds, and on local climate. But regardless of its form, the economic impact of E-Cat’s at home won’t be more than $1000-2000 per year per home.
    Because of the foregoing, I predict the impact of E-Cat’s on coal, natural gas, and nuclear will be major and fairly rapid. Oh, and the impact on wind and solar will be total and immediate, thank heaven. The impact on oil will probably be more gradual.
    I guess that it will be at least a few years before E-Cat’s will work in automobiles (assuming that it is practical at all), and the automobiles will cost about the same as they do now, plus/minus 10 percent. Fuel saving: $500-1500 per year. It will be 10-15 years beyond introduction of practical E-Cat automobile engines before most cars on the road use them. Until then, automobiles will continue to use oil.
    Ocean-going ship propulsion is a significant user of oil and prime E-Cat application, but it will take at least 5 years to do the developmental engineering. Use in new ship construction will be almost immediate thereafter, but it could take decades to migrate E-Cat systems into the existing fleet. There will be a certain reduction in shipping due to the rapid elimination of coal shipments, but most trade will continue. That trade will require the existing fleet, so that use of oil will continue for some time.
    In the case of railroad locomotives, E-Cat commercialization will probably take several years, if it can be done at all. Thereafter, conversion of existing engines will take place over a period of relatively few years, because of almost immediate payback.
    Aviation will continue to use oil for the forseeable future. Oil and coal will still be used for fertilizers, chemicals, industrial processes.
    I think the typical unit price of coal nowadays is pretty close to its mean extraction cost. So after a very volatile period, its price will approach the current extraction cost of the most cheaply extracted, high quality grade. I’d guess about one-half, but the experts will probably laugh at me.
    The range of extraction costs for oil is huge. And its price if partly fixed by cartels. So if over a period of twenty years its use drops by say half, its price could drop dramatically. 70 percent? 80 percent? Again, I think I hear the experts laughing at me.

    • Lloyd

      They will stick an ecat on a car, ship, train, gas powerplant, nuclear powerplant etc.. to turn a dynamo which will generate electricity.

      I expect to see change within 5 years.

  • Susan

    This article has become a nice playground for Rossi enthusuiastics.

    11. All the skeptics (me too) will eat his hat. Hat industries will know a new era.

    • Lloyd

      Also, don’t forget dentistry as a consequence of all that hat eating – teeth will be in high demand.

    • And Worcestershire sauce, lots of Worcestershire sauce will be sold to make all those hats more palatable.

  • Martin6078

    I´m thinking within of one year only- no significant things will happen. Because e-cat markt needs more time and concurrents never sleeping. In one year maybe small shops will exists like in the early 90´ the PC- and Mobilphone- dealer. A new kind of middle class and service for e-cat´s growing up. Some well known Middle to big sized comanies start dealing with own developed e-cat derivates and enhanced products.
    In Germany in example I could image these companies: Vailant, Buderus, Vissmann, Siemens, AEG…
    But I´m convinst in so short time of one year the big, like mentioned they(the big ones)will take more time to start on market with their products.
    I resume in the first year, middle sized to small dealers will sell distribute and serve a relative small amount of e-cats for heatig only for private users. But the nummer of sold e-cats will not be very much in relation of offes to conventional or alternatively solar-powered heating systems.
    I´m shure goverment and lobby of greens in Germany will opposite to e-cat.

    • Luca Salvarani

      Dear Martin

      I don’t undestand why greens should oppose E-cat? Expecially in Germany!
      If it works Germany, could take from it enormous advantages (considering your great manufacturing industry and your export oriented model)! maybe more than any other countries! Here there’s why:
      Germany imports a lot of gas and oil from unstable and undemocratic countries, first of all Russia! and right now is using a lot of very polluting coal and is subsidising the crazy expensive fraud of so called “renewables”, expecially the photovoltaic bullshit … So you are wasting a lot of money, benefiting mainly russians and muslims or at best the few german inefficient corporations at the expense of your many efficient ones, polluting your contry and however depending from Putin rather than Ghaddafi mood for an essential thing like energy supply! It’s absolutely unacceptable for a great country like Germany!
      With e-cat you will always have a cheaper and environmental friendly energy source ! You can retain in Germany billions of euros every year that you have been sending to other countries, you will be no longer depenent from anyone for energy supply (not exactly a secondary issue)! Your energy-intensive corporation can turn even more competitive.. so higher profits for shareholders and wage for workers… And the icing on the cake: everyone could produce its own electricity and heat, becoming much more free, in any sense…. so what do you still want! Further there are great opportunities for german corporation such as automakers! They could work, thanks their superior know how and quality, on e-cat aplication for cars… this application could break growing korean competitition and restore german competitive advantage in this market… Germans seem me very pragmatic people so I’m sure they will embrace it! epecially greens!
      Warm regards Luca Salvarani Mantova.

    • Luca Salvarani

      I forget… those companies can’t simply copy the e-cat for many years thanks patent protection in the same way I can’t copy a Bayer patent protected drug which would be much more quick and cheap to do! They can only use ROssi scientific explanations and invent a completely ne hardware.. but it’s expensive, it takes time and e-cat will be already spreading… so for them it should be more profitable to produce and distribute e-cat under licence from Rossi.

      • web4YOu

        Mr. Rossi is not the only one who has a patent one LENR powered devices.

        There is a German patented invention who use the LENR Energy of NiH not only make hot water or steam, they made directly mechanical energie.
        The invention is: put the Ni-H reactor directly into a stirling engine where the working gas is the same as the reaction gas: hydrogen.

        The best way to power our cars in the future.

        The cars of the future will be our electricity suppliers for homes and industry, because 90% of there time they don´t drive they park somewhere and deliver electricity to a lokal grid.

      • Martin6078

        Dear Luca Salvarani.
        Your words in God´s ear! In German medias nothing is told about the sensation of A.R. E-Cat, it´s a blame!
        Due I´m not a typically German, who ist against all what is together with nuclear, science, spaceflight and so on, I´m anticipating very thrilled the E-Cat as the most importend invention ever. Nothing else in our history will change the world so significant like this, but positive!
        The unholy spirit of time in Germany blocks the real thinking of the most people. All the parties in GER becames green, sustrainable, CO2- and human made climate change- Lies are often told. When I´m tell somebody about E-Cat, nearly nobody belive that. The most changing the subject. I´m name that behavior consulting -resistant!…
        With best regards: Martin

  • Hampus

    One thing we dont really know yet is how powerful it is. Even if it works (which I am sure of), the adaption of this tech is largely based on it’s power. If it’s as strong as Rossi suggest and 90% cheaper then today’s power source the change will be quick.

    But what if the ecat is not as strong as Rossi says, will it be bought anyway? Maybe Rossi have even underestimated the ecat and after some more reaserch we find that it’s even more powerful.

    We can’t make predictions before we know how powerful the device is.

  • Brad Arnold

    The Rossi E-Cat (i.e. LENR Ni-H using the Rossi Secret Italian Sauce) will have a tremendous impact both psychologically and economically.

    The bad effects of higher energy prices on our economy are well documented. The Rossi E-Cat ought to gradually cause fuel prices to go down as it we transition, so we can enjoy the opposite for a change: lowering energy prices.

    Psychologically, a clean energy source about 1/10th the cost of coal (about the cost that Rossi is shooting for) will give everyone (except the oil sheiks) hope for the future. The prospects of future energy price drops will spur investment, and switching to LENR will spur employment.

    It is difficult to overestimate the impact this will have on the economy and our society. Suddenly, energy isn’t going to be a constraining variable.

  • bobrobbob

    huhu:

    7. Wind farm and solar plant projects around the world will shut down.

    ecat is just a new technique based on a non renewable resource: even if it looks abundant now its not infinite. a lot of comments here are stating world population will rise, nickel consumption will too then. in 500 years humanity will have depleted all nickel from solar system and will cry about how it was stupid to sell off real free energies like solar/wind ones

    ecat is just the new oil

    think hard about it

    • Luca Salvarani

      1) “In 500 years humanity will have depleted all nickel from solar system” Do you know how much nickel e-cat needs and how much nickel there’s only on Earth (not to speak about the solar system)?
      2) “and will cry about how it was stupid to sell off real free energies like solar/wind ones”…. Are you joking? First of all we can still wasting money with solar also in the future, not only in the present… If you want you can keep wasting your money with solar just not to force me (thanks for stupid) paying for your waste! Only 1 curiosity: if solar and wind are very cost-effective sources why every so called renewable corporation begs for public money insead of using your money like Rossi?

      • bobrobbob

        “First of all we can still wasting money with solar also in the future” it was a reaction about “7. Wind farm and solar plant projects around the world will shut down.” not my idea, dont blame me for it.

        i dont care if its in 500 or 500 000 years, but nickel will be depleted. that’s a pure fact and its pointless to argue about the when. you’re just postponing the oil problem, not solving it.

        • Jonathan

          @bobrobbob, this is silly. If the world nickel reserves last for 1/2 million years, do you seriously think we will need to worry about running out of energy? Even if it is 500 years, I know we will have better energy processes by then. What we need to be concerned with is our energy for the next hundred years. I agree that solar has very strong potential for the future, but we are talking decades away until it is cost competitive. Also, current solar manufacturing processes all have expensive and oftentimes rare elements that are needed.. My long term bet is on aneutronic fusion.

    • If I understand correctly, to replace all current energy sources will produce a 5% increase in the production of nickel. The risk of a nickel shortage, or even a significant price increase in nickel from the e-cat is minimal until we begin to use a massive amount more energy than we do today. (However, with energy becoming almost free, I expect that we’ll head in that direction rather quickly.)

    • Martin6078

      #bobrobbob.
      Keep in mind one gram of nicel produces so much energy like 517tons of Oil!
      The Earth consists to a major percentigrade of niclel! Now start calculation please how long mankind could benefits of these energy…
      Warm regards:

  • Franz

    One reason for the greens in Germany to oppose the e-cat is because it’s “nuclear” in germany everything nuclear is evil. Don’t know about other countries but in gemany the greens are the most stupid and irrational people of all.

    • baabaablacksheep

      hmm, I have a feeling the citizens of Fukushima, Hiroshima and Nagasaki might vote with those stupid and irrational Greens.

  • prediction:
    Avalanche of advanced technologies and jobs will result form the reduced cost of petrochemicals. Saudi will not be broke

    • You may be right. Currently about 5% of oil is used in plastics manufacture and such. If oil becomes notably less expensive, the use of plastics may sour. Saudi oil is marketable at about $15 per barrel, whereas Canadian tar sands oil is only profitable at $65 or so. As such, the Saudi resource, unlike the Canadian, might survive on non-energy uses of the black goo.

  • Gridlock from all the (large) cars.

    • That has the ring of truth. However, maybe the flying car will finally become a phenomenon.

  • s

    First, the criteria for proving the ecat is real will be given. Then possible implications, if it is real, will be given. These numbers represent my personal opinion and should not be construed as fact.

    There are two cases to consider: 1) Black box input./output only test where the 80kg internal ecat mass is not examined for fuel and 2) the case of the Oct 6 test where scientists might examine the inner workings of the 80kg module except for, probably, the inside of the reactor core module.

    Case1: Assume steady state excess power of 7.6Kw (10kw total – 2.4kw input) and ignore self sustain mode as that has not been clearly defined. The Ecat produces ~ 27.36 Mega joules per hour excess energy. The energy density of gasoline is ~48 Megajoules per kg. So, the Ecat needs to run ~1.75 hrs/kg multiplied by mass in kgs not verified as containing fuel to burn up any possible fuel. It would need to run ~3.5hrs/kg X unverified mass to prove beyond most doubt it is real and 7 X to prove conclusively it is real. For 80kg mass, the ecat would need to run at least 280 consecutive hrs at 7.6kw excess power to prove it is real beyond most doubt and 560 hrs to prove conclusively it is real.

    Case2: Use the same 1.75 X mass to hours multiplier as above. Assume the scientists at the Oct 6 test can examine everything internal to the ecat except the reactor core. Assume the mass the scientists can’t examine is 4kg. Then, the ecat wouild need to run at least 3.5X4=14 hours to prove beyond most doubt it works and at least 7X4=28 hrs to prove conclusively it works.

    The 1.75 X multiplier should be adjusted if the actual excess power on the day of the test is not 7.6kw. The mass that cannot be inspected in case 2 should be set to the actual uninspected mass measured on the day of the test.

    In terms of the impact, I doubt there will be a unilateral international response initially. Countries such as Japan and Germany, who desire to move away from atom power, will probably strongly pursue ecat technology before the end of this year. This is contingent on their own scientists’ independent verifications that the ecat produces enough power to be useful, of course.

    Other countries will attempt to tax and regulate the cost difference between ecat power and normal power to ease the budget situation. This will only work until the ecat completely takes over virtually all of energy generation.

    The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that many modern countries with expensive distributed electricity and fuel infrastructure will delay initial use of the ecat. When the ecat is allowed, the existing large corporations and energy companies, that would have been run out of business by new companies specializing in the ecat, will mostly control ecat technology. Andrea Rossi will be paid and he won’t die penniless like Tesla, but I don’t see his being allowed to become a trillionaire and run so many large and powerful companies out of business. Keep in mind that he is making his initial demonstrations in a country where he does not have issued patent protection.

    • s

      To summarize the prediction- If the ecat works, many countries will adapt it quickly while others will take much longer due to politics. Relative to the infrastructure the ecat will replace, it is one of the more disruptive technologies ever.

      Large corporations see the ecat will be difficult to compete with, so they offer a significant lump sum of $ for rights to the ecat, which Rossi accepts. Many inventors sell rights to their products to corporations, so this situation could be similar.

  • s

    I meant he is demonstrating the initial 1MW unit to be sold in a country where he doesn’t have an issued patent. Rossi has a patent in Italy to cover the Oct 6 test.

  • zabulab

    About solar power: the space industry will still be very dependant on good solar power for satellite, deep space research, robot on planets …. anything that needs to have independant power without any recharge and with very little failure probability. It would be a great stupidity to stop financing solar power because it has too much potential benefit even if it is very unmature at this time (low efficiency).

    • Johan H

      Agree, solar power will still develop for several reasons.

      So far the e-cat produces heat. To produce electricity it needs additional hardware and it’s not a neglectable problem for small scale applications. It also uses fuel and need refueling.

      Solar panels have no moving parts. It is ideal for remote locations with small energy needs and little maintenance.

      And most of all, the technology have taken a great leap forward last 5 years that wont stop since new materials are entering the market like graphene which can open up the area even more.

      But I doubt we see much of large scale solar farms.
      If e-cat shows the be fake or problematic I think solar will take a big role in the future so I think many of the benefits we see with e-cat can be applied to solar as well.

      • Luca Salvarani

        ” I think solar will take a big role in the future”…. Maybe in a soviet economic system! Keep on dreaming!

        • Johan H

          You know the price per watt has dropped significantly last 5 years and the introduction of CIGS cell has made the production a lot simpler. The technology is still in its infancy but the production ramps up fast now.

          One of the great benefits of solar is that it is very simple to use and require a minimum of maintenance. Once in place it doesn’t need much attention. Makes it attractive in many applications.

          Material science is a hot subject today and solar is one of the areas that can and probably will have great benefits from this. Take graphene as an example as I mentioned above.

          I can’t see no reason why the price drop will stall, since the market is bigger now days and more money are spent on development price will drop further which opens up bigger markets and so on. The ball is rolling. It has passed that critical point in development.

          Battery technology is another area that is moving forward strongly. Will also be beneficial for solar.

          e-cat changes all if true but material science development wont stop. If not directly focused on how to improve solar cells there are going to be indirect benefits from new discoveries.

          • Luca Salvarani

            I respect your opinion but I strongly, strongly strongly disagree!

            Not for ideological but only for phisical and financial economical reasons (I’m very careful about finance)!
            A debate would be off topic and too long so …. I have an only one very simple question for you (and all photovoltaic fans): if photovoltaic is so cost-effective, so simple, cheap…. to install to mantain…. so perfect in any sense….. why all coporations involved in photovoltaic beg for (a lot of) public money? Why just government only reduce these enormous subsides (speaking about billions of Euros not peanuts) many of those so called “corporations” file for bankruptcy and all related investment collapse???? Aren’t they so effective, so profitable? This is a fact, not an opinion!
            You are free to keep confidence in photovoltaic, just not use taxpayers or customers money! because this is the only way photovoltaice exists: a soviet economic system at best or a systemic fraud at worst… Rossi isn’t stealing your money to finance its corporation…. a great difference! Warm regards Luca Salvarani Mantua.

    • baabaablacksheep

      I see New Fire having a significant short term negative impact on all types of solar products – PV, hot water, solar thermal, solar towers etc . However, if you accept that Peak Oil is a reality, then you may grasp the catastrophic implications facing our world without some sort of “energy miracle” like the e-cat.

      Long term, this miracle will be the lifeline that solar technologies need to survive and be relevant 50, 100 and 1000 years from now. New Fire will provide economic stability and allow governments to continue to provide subsidized R&D into solar. This time is needed to allow solar to become efficient enough to compete without subsidy.

      Without something like the e-cat, a long and painful de-evolution into a pre-industrial society will certainly occur.

  • Eco-ernie

    There is hope after all for my old timers! I can’t drive them much with these rediculous petrol prices. If these prices drop to stay competitive with e-cat-powered vehicules, I finally see my hobby get back alive like it supposed to be, hahahah.

    Althoug, if oilprices do drop, lots of people will stick to old technology just until government forbids driving fossil-fueled-vehicules. Damn, that is the total end of my oldtimer-hobby 🙁
    But nature if far more important and I’d happily not drive at all if the Ecat goes into succes as it should go.

    Keep fingers crossed for a properous future of the Ecat.
    (I’d even gladly abandon my solar panels, though I’m so proud of them)

  • Prognosticator

    You guys are nuts. There are few things that will happen short term. Most are long term changes.

    Short Term:
    1. The US will demand extensive testing. Lobbyists will attempt to minimize the technology. The rest of the world will move forward in it’s development and the US will miss another opportunity to become a leader in a new technology.

    Long Term:
    1. Nickel prices will rise, as will the stock of nickel mining companies.
    2. Copper prices will decline.
    3. ECATs will be utilized in electrical power generation.
    4. ECATs will be used in a distributed fashion. Homes may have independent water heating ECATs and military may have these plus electrical generating ECATs.
    5. Fossil fuel prices will stabilize as supplies dwindle and ECATs gain traction offsetting price increases.
    6. Africa will still be poor because their issue is cultural/educational and not economic/resource.
    7. Someone will figure out how the ECAT works and build a better one pushing aside Rossi.
    8. High temperature ECAT will enable the construction of efficient deep space propulsion.
    9. World economy will accelerate as cheap energy drives costs down for everything, provided debt is finally contained.
    10. Cheap energy and new battery technologies will enable 90% of cars to be pure electric.

    • Lloyd

      Nickel use negligible, so nickel prices fall as cost of production decreases, due to reduced cost of energy.

      Education in Africa increases as people don’t need to manually transport water, have access to abundant electricity, health levels improve, arid areas are watered with desalinated water.

      World economy cannot escape debt problems without debt jubilee.

      New battery technology not necessary for vehicular transport, as electricity can be produced on demand.

  • s

    When I said “expensive distributed electricity and fuel infrastructure “, I meant “expensive grid centered…”.

  • medium term: energy prices fall while food prices remain high, rising inflation. this creates riots and eventually failing states and wars. wars spurs technological advances on an mobilization scale.

    long term: technology advances in cold fusion allows for super cheap space travel. autamated space mining allows an explosoion in human activities, both research and economic. we populate space and reduces the stresses on the ecosystems.

  • charlie sutherland

    mid-eastern oil producing nations will no longer be able to support their present extravagant interests as the rest of the world chooses other suppliers with political systems closer to their own

  • Wes

    A gasoline tax at the pump will simply be replaced by a “miles-traveled” tax, determined by an odometer reading when a car is registered, nullifying any financial gain from the use of an e-cat for transportation. Anti-terrorist bills will be passed which require the registration of any large consumer power source, along with a heft registration fee (read tax). You didn’t actually believe governments were going to let the bird of paradise land on the public, did you?

    • H. Hansson

      Our politicians have for years told us that the environmental taxes is justified to solve environmental issues. But the fact is that most governments is addicted to these revenues to balance the budget.

      So, when the old rhetoric becomes obsolete over night, something new had to replace it, just watch.

      And what will happened will all these activist that is now doing “research” about global warming with our tax money?? Find themselves a real job???

    • Rather than lambaste every tax a government charges, consider their costs. Consider, for instance that governments fund the building and maintaining of roads. Their investment must be covered somehow. How better than to get the people who use the roads to pay for the cost. When the e-cat comes in, gas taxes will no longer cover the cost of roads. It is only fair that some tax be paid by motorists to cover this cost. It is only fair that those who use the roads the most pay the most. A mileage tax, payable at the annual registration of the vehicle (getting the new license plate sticker) is one way to do it.

  • Johannes Hagel

    Cars would not directly run on E-Cats but E-Cats, as soon as they can be used to create electricity will enable us to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water in a cheap way. And hydrogen can easily run todays cars after minor modification. Then water will come out of the exhaustion pipes and no more carbon dioxide.

    • So why do you think that cars will not be able to run on e-cats directly?

      • Johannes Hagel

        I just refer to the E-Cat as a heat generator and I cannot see how we could integrate this module easily into the existing techniques of cars. Steam engines would certainly be possible for cars but it seems to me much easier to apply some minor changes to gasoline motors so that they can run from hydrogen bottles. In addition existing infrastructure (pipelins) could be used to distribute hydrogen produced by centralized E-Cat plants in an effective way.

        • Lloyd

          Think chevy volt minus petrol engine using an ecat to recharge batteries.

      • Certainly you need a heat engine, such as a steam or stirling engine, to convert heat to rotary motion and/or to electricity. However steam engines can be built with about twice the power to weight ratio of internal combustion engines (www.cyclonepower.com). Further, steam engines do not require transmissions, which are about 50% the weight of a car’s drive train. So a steam-powered drive train weighs about 1/3 of an automotive drive train. The e-cat itself will weigh about the same as a full tank of gas — maybe more initially, but I think the weight will come down. In any case, its got a lot of room to be a lot heavier than gas.

        In light of this, why develop a new hydrogen distribution system when we can have cars that go for a year or two between refuelings?

        • Dave

          Using a e-cat directly is not practical for two main reasons
          1) to run a steam engine you need a lot of steam, and thus a lot of water. It is not convenient to have a huge tank of water, for wait reasons
          2) the ignition of a car engine needs to be fast. It is my understanding that the e-cat takes up to hours to reach steady state where the energy output is greater than the input. this is not practical for automotive purposes.

          I can see though how you can reload the battery of an electric car at home with your e-cat 😉

  • georgehants

    As half the workforce can easily produce everything needed it may one day become clear that the Capitalist way of creating an illusion that everybody must work and struggle, will be recognized for what it is.
    A conspiracy for inequality of effort verses return.

    Every technological advance, Rossi’s E-Cat included, obviously means less work and more time to enjoy life and help others, but Capitalism dictates that one should fear unemployment, and not as it should be, celebrate it.

    It does not have to be Capitalism versus Communism or any other “ism” but the best of any system that produces the best result for all and not just a select group of inheritors and manipulators.

    • Wes

      Exactly! Automation has allowed the few to gather the wealth from the many, leavng the many to compete for too few remaining jobs. The obvious solution will be a shock to the capitalist system: scale back the work day to distribute employment over the available workforce, using automation to reduce prices to match reduced salaries. Eventually, little actual work will be required for survival. However, “selling” this to the owners of production will not be an exercise in politeness.

      • Paul Brelin

        I agree. It is becoming more and more clear that a new world is being born. Capitalism as we know it today is being questioned around the world and the vast majority of people will be firmly behind the new and sweeping changes that must come.

  • baabaablacksheep

    The US Military already has a plan in place to retrofit major sectors of their vehicle inventory with new fire propulsion systems. The research and manufacturing behind this will be a massive economic boom to defense subcontractors with the capacity to address the demand. Buy General Dynamics etc.

    • AR

      Out of all of the overexcited irrational doomsday prophets here you are the one who is most full of B.S

  • Rick Gresham

    Don’t mean to sound like a smartypants, but there’s a couple of misconceptions circulating about hydrogen powered vehicles. It can’t be readily distributed with existing pipelines. The hydrogen diffuses into the carbon steel making it brittle leading to fractures, the existing seals and valves won’t contain the small molecules, the pumps used on liquid pipelines won’t pump hydrogen, the compressors used on natural gas pipelines won’t compress hydrogen very efficiently and the pressures needed to efficiently distribute the hydrogen are beyond most pipelines’ capability.

    As a motor fuel, some issues with hydrogen include lack of lubricity so valve stems wear out quickly, it requires a whole new fuel storage, distribution and injection system, vapor leaks/detection challenges. Storage is a big issue, proposals include 10,000 psi cylinders (expensive compression, traveling at 70 mph, poorly maintained as most cars are, mom and kids sitting inches away – I think not), liquid storage (expensive refrigeration, issues with leakage, large expensive storage vessels, small capacity), various solid state storage methods (expensive, experimental).

    Using hydrogen to make DME makes more sense – spark or compression ignition, lower pressure liquid storage – better energy density per dollar storage cost, lower pressure pumps, still a problem with lubricity, still requires a different but less challenging injection system.

    I think the thing that would be most useful in transportation and probably for home CHP is direct conversion of heat to electricity by merging the e-cat reaction with a thermoelectric material. Producing steam to rotate a machine will always be expensive in terms of mechanics and efficiency. Direct conversion elminates moving parts, elminates fuel storage, distribution, consumption issues. It’s a ways off but seems plausible.

  • Dandelion

    If the E-Cat is real the most important change will not be direct, by the use of the E-Cat powerplants. The most important change brought by a working E-Cat will come indirectly to us, after a longer time, through the changes it will impose in the field of theoretical physics.

  • Dandelion

    An I will give you one example of such change.

    I remember there is a study that shows that a hen that lays eggs consumes less calcium than it produces. This observation led to the conclusion that there happens some kind of biological level transmutation. That is why, in my circle of friends, I am reffering to the E-Cat as “The Hen” :-).

    Now, if the E-cat is real and the scientist understand the mechanism by which it works, and discover that this mechanism applies to the biological transmutation, too, then we could see genetics and biotechnology make it possible to use living cells to produce chemical elements!

    It will not be exactly a fantasy to have a hen that lays golden eggs… or eggs containing high percentages of rare earths – not so rare anymore, China! Or plants with increased contents of certain chemical elements – will we harvest “Fields of Gold”? 🙂

    This will we the most unexpected and clever use of the energy of the Sun – farm mines.
    Agrarian transmutation.

    If the E-cat is real, this kind of line of scientifical pursuit will have more impact on our lives than anything else.

    • Yet another stunningly excellent post. I have not assumed that biological processes are doing transmutations, but if transmutations are possible, why not? I have seriously wondered about the veracity of the current cosmological theory of how the heavy elements got here. My understanding is that in the 16 billionish years that the universe has been around the material in our earth has cycled through the lives and deaths of a number (4, I think) stars. As our star, the sun, has been cooking for at least 4 billion years, this seems odd to me.

      I expect that the scientific world will discover that transmutations have been happening all over the place. If the e-cat then whole vistas of research opportunities exist.

      • Paul Brelin

        Crabs also create far more calcium when molting then is accounted for by the calcium in ocean water and the crab body.

      • qq

        Our universe has 13.7 billion years.
        Very big stars has a life of only a few million years so they produce elements and spread them very fast.

  • s

    Another prediction: If the much hyped test on Oct 6 fails, is inconclusive, or is delayed for any reason, many people, including me, will lose interest in the ecat/cold fusion. Interest will only perk up again if/when a working cold fusion device is on the market. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice…

    • Sebastian

      The much hyped test would be the one at the end of October, not the one tomorrow.
      Though I am quite excited about this next test, especially if it is true what Krivit says.

      • s

        The 1MW test is very important. Let’s think of tomorrow as a preliminary test of the 1MW plant.

  • Pipmon

    The new “fire” indeed. Any way you look at it, essentially free energy, (automation becomes the norm and extracting nickel and building e-cats could be automated) makes all commodities become extremely cheap. The only things retaining value are those that cannot be extracted or produced in any desired quantity, regardless of how much money you throw at it.

    My guess is that land situated in prime areas will be the only commodity that will increase till it is un-buyable! Head for the hills! (or the beach if that’s your preference).

  • Phil the drill

    My prediction is that seeing as how the ecat can transform nickel into copper somebody will figure out how to transform platinum into gold etc. Have a look at a periodic table of elements.

    This will finally prove how useless gold is and finally bring down the silly commodities market and the rest of the stock market soon after. Sell everything you have and buy a gun with a lot of ammo 😉

  • David Lang

    people will migrate out of stationary homes and live in e-cat powered mobile homes where they will pay no rent, house payment, or utilities, or they will populate cheap remote land Just in the nick of time as the financial markets around the world tumble from a overload of debt. The biggest expense will be food and water. But with e-cat technology, you can turn cold climates into farmland using insulated tarps and e-cats for heat. The momentum has been in favor of big banks and governments. This is power for the people. A more independent, free life. The possibilities are truly stunning to think about. Oh, be true, be true. The world soooo needs this right now. HOPE! In a little black (or whatever color you choose) box.

  • I think not only will this lead to mobile homes that can be located in remote and currently uninhabited areas (as suggested in the post by David Lang) — we will also see how the regions of the earth that are currently covered by water will start to be populated. I can imagine huge fleeting colonies out at sea that rely exclusively on e-cat power for many different purposes (heat generation, desalinization of sea water, electricity, propulsion, hydrogen production, etc.) Fleeting greenhouses for growing plants and vegetables will become commonplace and of course the colonies will also rely on fish farming.