Rossi’s Goal For 2012: 1 Million Units, Kill Competition

Writing after midnight on Christmas Eve, Andrea Rossi made an interesting comment regarding the current and future state of E-Cat technology. Since the October 28th demonstration, there has been little public activity from Leonardo Corporation, and understandably people are curious about what he has been up to. Here’s what Rossi says.

“In this period we did not talk too much and we did not give substantial news, but we worked tremendously on the business side and now I can say we have the Partners who will allow us to produce sooner than expected the 10 kW E-Cats at a price that will kill the Copy-Cats of the competitors. The first generation will produce heat, and will be able to be retrofitted to produce also electricity when we will be ready for it.”

Rossi does not name the “copy-cat” competitors — does he mean Defkalion? If so, it would be the first time that he has acknowledged that they may actually possess a working LENR technology. There are other competitors out there as well, and it seems that a priority for Rossi and Leonardo has been to get partnerships in place that will allow them to stay at the front of the cold fusion pack. Yesterday Rossi restated this priority when asked when the E-Cat would go to market. (Presumably the questioner meant the small home-based units). Rossi replied:

I hope within 2012. We must have a production of 1 million pieces immediately, to put the price at a level to reach these strategic targets:
1- allow everybody to buy it
2- kill the competition

I’m sure that Rossi’s competitors will be thinking along similar lines — and the beauty of competition is that it spurs ingenuity and pushes prices lower so the consumer is the ultimate beneficiary. At this point it is hard to imagine 1 million working E-Cat devices in the marketplace within twelve months, especially with patent approval and safety certification required — a huge network of R&D, manufacturing, distribution and support would need to be in place in order for that to happen. Perhaps that is exactly what Rossi has been organizing.

  • Martin

    1 million 10Kw E-cat’s – I reckon I could couple up a domestic E-cat at home in a day, only flow and return hot water to connect, maybe use flexible hose, remote control room stat, no gas and no flue to worry about.

    This is the reality of the E-cat, cheap domestic heating, I could even heat my garage and workshop!

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  • lenr

    LOL, still waiting to see a functioning e-cat.

    And no, a few hours show without access, proper measurements and data logging doesn’t count.

    • Steve Robb

      Your’s is the persnickety scientific approach that would convince only small fraction of the scientific community as too many will continue to keep their ears stuffed and their hands over their eyes or will demand that they too should be allowed to perform the test. As for myself, the simple engineering approximation of the penultimate “scientific” test is sufficient.

      • veskod

        Curiously, people normally wouldn’t pay physics theorists to design their elevators or the brakes of their cars, or allow biology professors to perform surgery on them or their relatives, but are perfectly willing to take scientific opinions from medical doctors and engineers. Go figure..

    • JP

      To me, the public dismissal of cold fusion and Rossi’s eCat is part of its brilliance, and the very reason why there could be something to it. Notice that there’s little “hype” surrounding this technology? The MSM will barely touch it, but those that have are refraining from demonizing it completely. Perhaps to prevent a situation of having to eat their words later? Perhaps because any extreme in assessing the potential of cold fusion, from complete belief all the way to outright dismissal, is likely to be based on dogma instead of fact, because as it stands we simply do not have enough information to make a non-biased, objective assessment.

      Sometimes I choose to approach more “alternative” sources of information and possibilities with a broad, philosophical analysis of things, especially when science is unable to take a definitive stand (and even then, as quantum physics shows us, the more we peel back the layers of truth, the more questions that appear). This could actually work… or, it might be a load of bunk.

      It’s possible that Rossi is misinformed, and is unknowingly engaging in confirmation-bias… yes, that’s possible. I think this is more likely than him purposely deceiving the public and scientific community. If he’s a conman, the truth won’t be difficult to find. If there is any grain of truth within this technology though, it has the potential to completely revolutionize the planet.

      It could very well contain the seed for the next global paradigm shift. Man discovers fire and other tools. Man develops verbal language. Man develops internet. Man discovers a plentiful and sustainable energy source.

      It’s possible. Whatever the case ends up being with Rossi and the eCat, I believe the next stage of human evolution will have to do with some fundamental change in how humanity interacts with the material world, whether that be through a new energy source, a change in how we experience time, a deeper understanding of the mind/body connection… it’s GOING to happen (science and history all but guarantees it!), and cold fusion is a viable possibility. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it.

      Just be open-minded, that’s all. The world and the things inside of it are a lot more interesting and beautiful than we’ve been conditioned to think. Try not to limit yourself… “either anything is possible, or nothing is.” View the world with fresh and imaginative eyes, like children do. We need to hold onto our sense of wonder, lest all of our creativity floats away with the wind.

  • Jimr

    Me thinks that Mr Rossi had a bit too much egg nog on Chriatmas eve.
    im afraid he has over estimated his capability. I do wish him well. I would be satisfied with the combination of 100 complete units..

  • Ginés

    In my opinion, it is not realistic:

    1 million 10Kw E-cat’s = 10.000 Mw. That means the energy output of 10 big Nuclear Reactors.

    • Steve Robb

      Yes, but we are not talking about the complexity of nuclear plants and if the manufacturing is simple as it seems once the design is finalized it could be farmed out to manufacturers that have no more sophistication as those who manufacture water heaters and central air conditioning units. As the Rossi heater units would be in competition with them I am sure they could be easily be persuaded to sign on or else face a decline of their business.

    • Robert Horning

      Major automobile manufacturers produce on the order of several million engines each year…. any one of which can produce on the order of about 10 kW of power. It isn’t like this scale of energy production isn’t being done elsewhere in the world or even by a single company.

      The difference here is that the energy production isn’t going to be concentrated in one place, but rather into a million different locations. The regulatory issues may still be there and since this is a nuclear device there might be some safety requirements….but then again those can be met to general satisfaction as once the model has been certified the whole production line can be accepted as well. When you are building nuclear fission reactors, they are big and complicated things which are difficulty to certify, which wouldn’t necessarily be the case for something small enough to sit on the desk of the examiner at the NRC.

  • daniel maris

    Gines – That’s the whole point of LENR/cold fusion…
    The mass v output ratio is very low. So, if Rossi really had a working unit, then producing a million of them would be reasonably simple…probably the equivalent of producing 100,000 cars in a year – or about 300 a day.

    However, I would be scepical about the claim more for reasons of certification and convincing a conservative market. We’ll see…

  • on the other hand, one million ecat core units is ‘just’ 3000 1MW plants, i.e. about a half nuke. It should not be totally unrealistic, but there must now have some sort of factories and plenty of infrastructure already present. Has anyone ever visited Leonardo Corporations facilities and factories? Has anyone ever interviewed any other Leonardo Corporation personels expect Rossi himiself. Even Meddalena Pascucci would do, because she is very important person. I have no doubt that they have plenty of infrastructure, but no one seems not to know anything else but an office addresses. Where did Leonardo Corporation manufacture the diesel gensets before ecat came into business? No one seem to know, although these bits of information would easily confirm or disconfirm the realism of ecat.

  • Pachu

    1 million in a year its 2740 per day… starting in a week.

    He make such nonsense asserts that i think he needs sleep.

    • veskod

      Better yet, almost two units every minute of every day.. Impressive lack of common sense on Rossi’s behalf!

  • sapain

    400 ecats per day is nothing in todays tech world, molding and pouring and electronics for this simplistic unit can reach production levels of 10,000 units per day, compared to the material and tech used to produce a car. once this tech is proven 100% to all (believers and non believers), 10,000 units would be closer to the norm.

  • Steve Robb

    As the Air Force says, “Aim high.” A rate of one million units per year by the end of 2012 seems possible but not a total this next year. As someone else pointed out, perhaps it was the eggnog talking.

  • With outsourcing it’s a triffling task. Any metal-working mill could do it. An industry that turns 50+ million cars per annum, could easily turn tens of millions of eCats with its iddling capacities alone. It’s an instant revolution; no new technology is needed, only simple retooling.
    By the way, a million of 10 kWt eCats gives 10 GWt, corresponding to rougly 3 standard nukes of 1 GWe. Electric and thermal power are apples and oranges!

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  • Robert Mockan

    A million E-Cats? That would require a few hundred tons(!) of activated nickel powder fuel.
    There are only a few corporations with the laboratories that could produce that kind of material.
    Maintaining security with the logistics Rossi is implying will be interesting.

    • Robert Horning

      On the other hand, a million E-cats is still going to be an order in the range of $100 million to $1 billion in sales to whatever company is interested in supplying that level of material. That is enough money for somebody to take serious notice and be able to deal with any sort of complications that may come along. It is also a large enough order that it might just spike the spot price of Nickle, so a futures contract would be IMHO something that would be absolutely necessary for such an order.

      • Rockyspoon

        Doubtful it will spike the price of nickel much. As of today, Kitco has nickel trading at $8.25 a pound, whereas back in 2007 it was going for around $24 a pound (the metal’s main use is in steel alloys). Generally 1.5 million metric tonnes of nickel are mined and the soft price of nickel reflects a very slow economy, which will continue for several years (at least until the “transformation” of the US to a demonstrably-failed European-style socialist system has been stopped). I’ve calculated that all of the world’s electricity could be generated with about 15% of current nickel production, and there’s a bunch of it still sitting in warehouses just begging for buyers. It might spike a buck two-fifty, but not much more than that. Just my take on the supply/demand constraints vs. future prices for nickel. (There’s enough nickel in unmined reserves to last the world more than a million years, by the way.)

    • It would need 15 metric ton of nickel fuel.
      This is no more than 4 m3 of nickel, probably less (I don’t remember the specific weight of Nickel).
      A truck could deliver them without problems.

  • PaulC

    e-catworlds Frank Acland has the best Ecat Rossi coverage on the web, accurate information not found on other blogs, keep it up we are all waiting for the big news that ecat production has started !

  • To use mild euphemisms- this plan is naive, childish, primitive savage capitalistic thinking and self-destructive strategy.
    To use dumping on an endless, insatiable market- you cannot succeed even with a hundred million E-cats.
    And to kill (!) the competition is as counter-productive as impossible.
    It is very surprising that Rossi accepts now that the competition exists.

  • Martin6078

    We will see who ist right.
    I am thinking if AR would not be very shure, he never would be given such a statement…

  • Linda

    With 3D printing technology, were it universally deployed as planned, it would be a trivial thing to produce a million units a day worldwide.

    We are about 10 years away from being able to do that, but when we can do it, we will not be able to recognize our world.

    Combining LENR with 3D printing will bring on the singularity. In 10 years, there will be no need to work, and no real jobs left except in service and IT. We need to radically rethink our economic, social and political paradigms in light of these developments.

    Our society is revolves around the creation and control of wealth, which has no objective value, only relative value. The rich are rich only so long as there are poor people to compare themselves with. But in a world where energy is free and anything can be fabricated from a printer, even a house, all persons will be free of needs and wants. There will be no poor, unless of course poverty itself continues to serve those in power.

    The Occupy Movement is the only group currently challenging the notion of inequality as a political and social “necessity”. A political system that is fundamentally based on the protection of privilege has no future in a world where money and work have no real meaning.

    • Wes

      We hope technologies like the e-cat will move us toward economic freedom, and perhaps a utopian world. Or, will the singularity enslave us under the domination of someone (or something) else? Work toward technological freedom, but keep your hand firmly placed on the “off” switch!

    • Robert Horning

      3D printing is something that certainly shows promise, and devices like F[email protected] and other projects designed to self-fabricate parts for those devices indeed have some promise.

      I think we are still about a century or more away from having such a 3D printer become completely self-reproducing with nothing but raw materials like sand and raw metal ores, and even with specially manufactured “protomaterials” it is still some time away. They all need parts that come from more traditional manufacturing techniques.

      You still have devices like the lathe and machine screw that are from previous centuries that can reproduce themselves as long as you have a skilled technician operating them. Then again, that is what gave us the Industrial Revolution and much of what we consider to be modern society.

  • s

    Just a little while ago, there were articles saying 10,000 people were needed to sign up for the Ecat. Now, it seems like 1 Million are needed. So, will , perhaps, 100 million be needed the next time? At the same time, the demo in January 2011 seemed to be less than 24 hours in length, and, as far as I can tell, all demos for the past year made public have been from a few hours to less than 24 hours. So, while the number of Ecats that need to be sold seems to rise, the length of the demos seems to remain below 24 hours. At some point, the quantity and quality of the demos need to match the increasing claims and sales targets.

    • Robert Horning

      That is not what is said here. The 10,000 units was to prove market viability. The 1 million units is merely the very ambitious sales goal for the year.

      There are some problems with that, however. Rossi thinks he may be in competition with Defkalion, but in fact he is in competition with oil companies, wood burning stove companies, and other groups that manufacture heat generating devices. If somehow he can produce an E-cat that can have a price point at about USD $1000 or less, he may have a real market changer on his hands.

      There still are manufacturing and logistical issues to make out, however, including working in some heat exchanger that could work in a forced air furnace as a replacement for the “burner” that is currently used in such devices. If that could be developed, he would have a real winner.

      I also don’t see this kind of volume happening without the Nuclear Regulatory Commission getting involved in some rather substantial level, not to mention the Federal Trade Commission and other similar groups, even if he ignores patent issues as well. If this starts to be installed in people’s homes, governments will start to notice and can make a mess out of things even if everything is above board and the production lines are up and running to produce these devices.

      • Cliff Bradley

        The regulatory agencies are the biggest fear. I’m thinking that there might be a good black market for E-Cats to get around them.

      • veskod

        Don’t forget the fact that Rossi still walks around alive. We have all reasons to believe that if well-known parties with stake in energy production had any reason to take his claims seriously this wouldn’t be the case.

  • John De Herrera

    Without knowing much about Leonardo Corporation, Rossi, or the capabilities of the E-Cat, we can not be sure about the future production or successes. Rossi IS very confident, and he should know! Let’s just be supportive and hopeful that our world will change substantially, for the better, beginning this year.

  • John Howard

    It would seem to me that new technology like this should be tested for a prolonged period of time – How do we know that with continuous running – this cold fusion reaction could suddenly become a hot fusion explosion? – I’m sure it’s safe – but not sure enough to build 1,000,000 units and have them running for several years – just waiting for a Surprise? Something like this needs a very very close look!

  • Brad Arnold

    First, one million units from Leonardo will not squash the competition, because the market for LENR generators is much too large.

    Second, the feasibility of Leonardo manufacturing (not selling – that is a foregone conclusion) one million units seemfar fetcheded. Frankly, I’d be satisfied with ten thousand or perhaps a hundred thousand household ones.

    Finally, I bet Rossi is just saying that to freak out Defkalion. Rossi has been proceeding in a linear fashion so far, it seems reasonable to expect him to continue building his manufacturing company from the ground up, rather than join forces to exponentially increase his resources.

    • Brad Arnold

      BTW, everything could change quickly when either Defkalion’s or Leonardo’s LENR generators hit the market in quantity. The short run profit potential is so large that corporations big and small will flock to it, offering resources that are simply daunting to increase production or improve the product.

  • Prediction

    How about one (1) unit, just for starters?
    The claims are getting bigger and bigger, and Rossi hopes we all forget that WE HAVE NEVER SEEN ONE e-cat.

    All we have are statements by Rossi claiming
    – people have verified it
    – he’s producing 1MW
    – he’s got 10.000 orders (who has ordered one??)
    – he’s producing 1.000.000 of them.

    The numbers are getting bigger, but we have never seen ONE device independently verified.

    Just ONE journalist who has had an e-cat in his house, and it ran for 24 hours while Rossi went away.
    Just ONE.
    Not one million.
    Just one.

    • Stefan

      just wait, no actions and $$ are required, we’ll see soon enough how for real LENR is…

    • Farah Yousuf Faghey

      Yes just one unit… and even if it’s true and… as a “dreamer” I love to think is real… what worries me is the… “kill Competition”.
      Is he starting thinking as the Old Oil’s Companies?

      • Stefan

        >Is he starting thinking as the Old Oil’s Companies?

        If all LENR start-ups think along such aggressive self-serving line it will create a fearsome competition. It is a long way for this tech to worry about monopoly…

  • xy

    i just googled on “production capacity” and it is a reality that a single factory in china can produce 1 million engines per year. an e-cat is much simpler than an engine. so, that’s completely feasible. not saying you can have it manufactured at 5 parallel sites. though it seems to me that AR should hire some PR pros along with the partners to steer the marketing campaign since this gets all weird. keeping fingers crossed for the tchnology and Mr. AR anyway.

    • veskod

      And how exactly is it feasible if Rossi doesn’t expect to get the device certified before the last quarter of 2012?! Who will gamble to invest into producing 1 million uncertified units?

  • Rockyspoon

    My son currently works in HVAC installing heating units primarily into new homes. He tells me some cost as much as $15k, which undoubtedly are larger home units that include air conditioning (but none are generating electricity since that’s typically outside the unit’s capability). And he and a crew of two can install such a unit in 2-3 days. It would be interesting to see how many people would buy a relatively inexpensive LENR furnace (both in terms of initial outlay and operating costs) that also generated the home’s electricity. Can’t think of too many things that would slow down demand, except government regulations, since the concept is simple, cost-effective, environmentally friendly, and gives the new owner “first on the block” status. Sweet!

    It is also better than having guests over to watch football! (You: “Hey, wanna go downstairs and see my new cold fusion power system?” Friend: “Wow, you got one of those? Absolutely!”)

  • Gregoryyc

    Mini e-cat for warm jump suit or works suits, mini e-cat coffee maker, mid size e-cat Kitchen stove, mini e-cat desk top computer, laptops or even i-pads and the likes, E-cat powered cars boats trucks trains, planes, ships, lawmowers, any size green houses for farming produce, fruits etc. etc….
    Can you imaqine a world where every single possible tools and gadgets are self powered or heated and made human friendly? How many jobs and brand new industrial revolution it’s gonna create ?

  • Joe

    Instead of free power could this thing be used to produce primarily cheap pure copper as it is very costly in the southwest. Folks would no longer need to strip abandon houses for their copper. All they would need is nickel, hydrogen plus Rossi and Focardi’s secret blend of 11 herbs and spices and you get cheap copper.

    I expect Rossi to end up much like the guy that invented that car that supposedly ran on only water. People will talk about him for years, about how colse he came to fixing the world only to be done in by the CIA on order from big oil.

  • bill colley

    My interest is that of amature. I do not want to seem negative, but possibly my concerns can be answered. I have not been able to find data on long term operation of E-CAT. One theory is that fusion originates at high pressure cavitives which fissure in time to result in a network that leads to the surface causing loss of pressure and terminating the fusion.

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