Buy, Sell, Hold — Which Industries Will Prosper or Decline in an LENR World?

Here’s a mental exercise for E-Cat World readers and a chance for some creative thinking. Let’s assume for a moment that at some future point a working, useful LENR technology finds its way into the marketplace and begins to be used in the real world. As has been mentioned many times, such a breakthrough could have a profound impact on the way our world works — particularly in the world of business. So here is the question I’m throwing out today — What are the industries that will be positively affected by such a development, and what are the ones that will suffer? How about industries that may not be affected one way or another? Anoter related question is what will businesses need to do in order to remain viable in an LENR world?

Creative thinking welcome here — maybe seemingly obvious answers may not, upon analysis, hold up. For example, could LENR be a real boon for oil companies if it provides cheap energy for exploration, extraction and refining purposes. At this point there are no right or wrong answers, of course — all just speculation.

If you have any thoughts on these questions, just post them below!

  • Mark

    Sir,
    Why do we need an exercise in futility?
    The majority of projections – in technology,
    science, economy, politics- have been either
    totally wrong or significantly off the mark.
    Nature is taking its own course, there is a
    lot of “unknown unknown” per Mr Rumsfeld.

    • jacob

      mark,it is only a fun thing

    • We have all been engaged in an exercise in futility since we stumbled on this story. Personally I do lots of other inherently futile things too – that’s life!

    • daniel maris

      No, I don’t agree. Of course it is FUN, which is reason enough but there is a serious side to such speculation. People do get it wrong but we also get it right. It didn’t take long for people to appreciate many of the benefits of the internet, if anything people were a bit too quick with their predictions.

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      Most exercise is not considered futile.

      • Life is short and then we die. Everything is futile. In vino veritas (slumps unconscious on keyboard).

  • Iggy Dalrymple

    Initially, natural gas will be hurt most. LENR produces cheap clean heat and that is presently natgas’ forté. Wind, solar, and geothermal are doomed but may last a little while as green religious symbols. Nukes will will last until next overhaul, unless needed for weapon production. Professional skeptics will have to get real jobs.

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      Once natgas and oil prices tank, chemical, plastic, and fertilizer manufacturers will greatly profit from reduced feedstock cost. Energy intensive industries such as cement, metal smelting, and transportation will benefit.

      So if and when it happens, go short natgas and long Cemex.

      • BertB

        Fertilizer production is also energy-intensive, so along with cheap desalinized water, this should be a boon to farmers, and food costs.

    • GreenWin

      Yep, NG is already tanking due to the glut from overproduction. LENR will leave NG in the ground. Wind farms could make one of a kind art projects – in the Christo mold. Or large miniature golf ranges.

      Professional skeps will need re-education through labor camp. North Korea and CCP will finance.

      • jacob

        he he he,lets just show them a working unit,that will twist their reality towards the Truth.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    The education business.
    There will be a major reranking of universities. For example Portland State University (where John Dash discovered that palladium was being transmuted into silver http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/DashJcoldfusion.pdf ) will receive a higher ranking than the institutions that disparaged F&P.

    • Alan DeAngelis

      PS
      The industries that use rare elements in their manufacturing processes will take off when the transmutation aspect of LENR is commercialized.

    • alex

      On the contrary, Most Universities get money from Big Oil, and Hot Fusion research. So, when it comes to attractive and prosperous places to study, it will come down to how skillful they are at bridging the gap when things do change. I think, all will be forgotten and forgiven about F & P, when they start allowing experimentation in the Cold Fusion Field.

    • There is plenty of expertise in private industry that could develop CF/LENR (given any opportunity to do so) much more effectively than hidebound academics in the universities. Only those institutions that offer formal courses on LENR theory and related physics will have any relevance at all. The story will of course be rewritten to minimise the shame of Huizenga, Park and the others who tried to bury the technology for their own slimy reasons.

      • GreenWin

        Dunce caps and three days in the corner for all Professorial deniers of cold fusion. Ten days for those who wrote denial books.

        Or, a sack cloth and ashes apology to the human race on international chat shows.

  • chris robinson

    My State in OZ generates a significant part of its revenue from the export of Coal and Gas
    The Government has just announce a 100 billion deficit in the budget ,mainly due to the GFC
    This will take decades to repay.
    It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that in the event a LENR generator is a realistic
    alternative , we and many others countries would end up as another Greek basket case, in short order.

    • GreenWin

      Greece oddly is one of two or three LENR pioneers. If Defkalion introduces a heater/generator – they’re golden. As for your fossil industry – heavy lift vehicles and aircraft will need liquid fuels for the foreseeable future. Both coal and NG convert nicely to liquid fuels.

      And someone in OZ’s gotta manufacture, install and maintain those LENR units.

      • Stephen

        Actually I think that aircrafts need liquid fuels just because of energy density issues. For instance, batteries suck in that respect… they are too heavy. If LENRs ever work they would provide a huge energy density so I don’t see the problem. Indeed NASA primary interest in LERNs is in aviation/space, as far as I understand.

        I agree it would take time, though. The scale of the energy/transportation sector is really massive… in any case things would not change from one day to the other.

      • jacob

        If magnetic lifter technologies are declassified and used by aircraft manufacturers,which were made Top Secret in 1959, no liquid fuel will be needed,actually no fuel at all

  • jacob

    well,considering full LENR integration in todays economy,for just heating purposes,Oil prices could bottom out to 30 $ a barrel,helping the economy by people spending less on gas and more on other goods,jobs will be lost in the oil sector, but jobs will be gained in selling and installing millions of LENR heating units,further reducing the regular expenses to run their homes, some Oil companies will suffer and go bankrupt,LENR repair will be a new business creating thousands of jobs,major businesses will save millions on heating costs and save on vehicle fuel expenses,trucking companies will have a field day,and may have to remove the fuel surcharge,Government is going to have many meetings ,to see how they can tax LENR because of lost sales tax on fuel and electricity,some countries currency will be devalued ,due to less oil reserves value,If people spend the money they save on oil,the economy may become healthier than it is now,reduced energy costs affects the cost of the food grown for farmers,trucking will be less,hopefully if the big grocery store do not get more greedy,we could see less inflation and a lower grocery bill

  • Clean cheap energy from LENR would allow developing countries with food and water shortages to build water desalination and/or filtration plants to supply clean drinking water to their population and to irrigate new farming lands. Food and water shortages would be a thing of the past, and agriculture would be possible even in arid areas, providing that sea water could be piped in.

  • alex

    Agriculture:
    I would say inner city farming, greenhouses, hydroponics, and landscaping rooftops will be the new craze with cheap power. Turning places like Detroit, or Gary Indiana, into a Populous of self supporting agriculture, and where food doesn’t need to get spoiled sitting on a Trailer coming from three states away, will become big local business opportunity. Each community, all over, would have new jobs to be filled, new purpose that builds on itself, and could lead to a new human condition where people become more connected with each other and the environment. It should be taught in Home Economics how to farm, and cultivate food, not just prepare a batch of cookies from ingredients made in China.

    • alex

      Pardon my grammar and sentence run-on.

  • Stefan Flueler

    There are two distinct features of LENR, which will have the most profound impact on economy.
    The first feature is a matter of scale. With LENR, it is very easy to realize a completely decentralized energy production, which is largely independent from natural prerequisites and/or superordinate structures.
    With only a tank full of deuterium gas and a suitable LENR reactor, everyone can start his own energy production business.
    That means all those already existing centralized energy production and distribution structures (power plants, national grid etc.) will turn into useless, unprofitable crap in a short amount of time.
    The second feature is a matter of efficiency. In terms of efficiency, every investment into LENR will return more profit than investing it into oil or natural gas, or nuclear fission, or hydro/wind power.
    In short you’ll get more bang for the buck, if you invest it into LENR.
    This will radicalize the process of subversion, the LENR energy revolution will gain momentum out of its own efficiency, it will propel itself to new heights, and finally to total and irrevocable victory.
    The impact of LENR onto economy and society will be a profound one. As soon as energy isn’t a limiting factor anymore, completely new production techniques will emerge, while others will die out soon.
    All those primary energy carriers of today and their related techniques will sink into insignificance soon. For example gasoline and gasoline driven cars will soon be completely outdated. Much too clumsy and dirty, and expensive on top of it. Transportation in general will change dramatically, everything driven by electricity will flourish, while everything else will suffer. Airplanes will soon fly with electricity instead of kerosene.

  • Dave From NJ

    My thinking is the only reason big oil companies have not come in, bought up all the patents, purchased all the companies, and shut the whole effort down is because everyone believes Rossi and the whole lot are a hoax.

    You watch what happens. As soon as any company is truly successful, watch the hammer come down. We are talking trillions of dollars. Big oil will no go quietly.

    At first I thought Rossi was really crazy. But maybe he is smarter than I think. The only way you can defend against all the inevitable billion dollar patent lawsuits is to have a billion dollars for lawyers. So maybe the only way to fight big oil is to penetrate the market so quickly and accumulate enough money so you can defend your empire.

    • Dave From NJ

      However, to answer your question: Everyone will prosper from successful LENR technology. There would be so much commerce that state governments would be overloaded with tax revenues from all the commerce. Goverments would pay off their debts and all our social problems will be address. All the economies of the world would be on fire with activity. It would be like 1998 and 1999 when the Internet made a difference but times 100.

      • jacob

        that would be nice,if that could happen

  • syl799

    travel and tourism will prosper

  • Bertuswonkel

    I was wondering. Oil has taken the place of gold as the commodity on which currencies are based. A sharp fall of the oil price might spell financial disaster!? Furthermore, the stability in e.g. the Middle east will also be further undermined which might lead to conflicts within or between states. It will not be easy to keep these deserts liveable without the financial help of selling vast quantities of oil. The stability in large parts of the world depends on the steady stream of oil revenues, an oil price of 30 dollars or less will surely cause upheaval in some parts of the world. I live in the Netherlands and around 10% (17 billion Euro) of our GDP comes from selling natural gas. If the prices seriously go down, we will have a huge hole in our budget. We already have to cut spending in the order of 20 billion Euros. In the short run, another 10 billion euros in spending cuts to account for the lower gas prices will seriously hamper economic growth in the Netherlands and threaten our comfortable welfare state. In the long run LENR is good of course but since nobody has seriously prepared for it, there could be some negative effects of the technology in the short term.

    • jacob

      I see the predicament ,I grew up in Holland and Germany,and realize the problem governments are facing,not being able to meet budgets,but it seem to me that the future holds a major economic collapse,maybe world wide,causing a massive disruption as money is devalued ,and I remember we were taught in school ,people were getting food stamps to survive,during the second world war,and counties rebuilt and prospered for many decades after.

      We can’t seem to make any headway,with free energy
      technologies ,and there are at least a dozen ways of extracting free energy from the wheel works of nature,but it is almost impossible to integrate it without causing major problems for meeting budgets for most countries,to me nature will take its course,and I predict free energy will not find their way into the market place,unless there is a global financial collapse,and that should get rid of the current energy and banking monopolies,and then after governments have all gone bankrupt and all debts are forgiven,then a better energy supply infrastructure and policies can be written to include free energy,to include all free energy sources,hydro power,solar,wind,geothermal,cold fusion LENR,solid state electric amplifiers,centrifugal force mechanical multipliers, plasma erg, HIDRO,
      BB motor corp,perendev magnetic motors,testatika ,
      just to name a few,and my hope is that all the above mentioned can then compete in a new global market.
      And I think the clear winner will be plasma erg,which can be the lowest production cost per horse power.
      If I remember correctly if mass produced it could be as low as 300$ with enough to power a car for virtually free,has been around for a long time and uses noble gases in a piston engine with no intake and exhaust manifolds,the gas is compressed ignited,the piston pushes down,the gases return to the pre combustion state and the same gas is exploded for about 6 month ,and a new noble gas charge is needed that comes in a tiny spray bottle type the size of a cigar,I did check on how long ago it was discovered,and it was discovered by Josepf Papp in the 1960’s,he even built a small submarine and made an Atlantic crossing in like 16 hrs,but he was frowned on,was just to far ahead of it’s time,just like Tesla. Much is not revealed,including power magnification using crystals,which was used by ancient Atlantis,a continent that sunk between Spain and Florida,which is part of the Bermuda mysteries ,where some types of crystals in shallow waters struck by sunlight can still cause damage to ships and planes,the rays emitted from these crystals can disintegrate steel.

      • Iggy Dalrymple

        In the last days of new world socialism, there was no food because all the farmers quit and went on the dole. Stop gap solution was vitamin enriched, edible food-stamps produced by robots. The only survivors were old pot-heads who converted their grow-rooms to food crops.

    • supermario

      Let us assume Mr Rossi manages to flood the market with portable energy lowcost units for individual homes and/or villages/towns. The mere acknowledgement of the fact would send crashing all energy based financial markets, the savings tied to those equities would fritter away. But capitalism has survived crashes many a time and markets would eventually bounce back. Alternative energy (solar, Ph-Voltaic, wind, etc.) would be obsolete overnight because of investment costs.
      Thank God that would happen to nuclear energy as well and ganger from radiations, making it clear who wants N-bombs. Power stations would survive if re-tooled. No more mega-dams to spoil environment. We would eventually have a new balance of power away from oil and pollution. Oil majors would either retool or perish. OPEC countries also. If they invest in hard working people, then work and intelligence will be the new currency that can create a new economy with brilliant prospects. Backward muslim oil countries would return to “camel and pistachio economies”. Non-oil poorer countries like Egypt would be pressed to modernise and could even prosper. Last but not least Jihadis would no longer be indirectly funded by us Western oil guzzlers.

  • georgehants

    The Dawk is again making science look stupid.
    His God tells him there is no creator.
    All the while he keeps selling books for cash to an unwary public, he will continue.
    Thankfully again a few Rebels speak the Truth about evolution and many other subjects, that are not necessarily all wrong but highjacked by the closed-minds for political funding of a scientific direction that is in error.

    The Guardian home
    The Observer home
    Richard Dawkins in furious row with EO Wilson over theory of evolution.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/jun/24/battle-of-the-professors

    • daniel maris

      INteresting article. I once saw Dawkins lecture and was very unconvinced by his assertion that all the “birds bees” activity we see in nature was a result of natural selection working on random mutation. When later I learnt about epigenetics I felt my scepticism was warranted.

      There is certainly a “philosophical” problem about what natural selection is favouring. Is it the organism, the group, the close kin network, the gene, the genome – or the molecular chains in the genes. The more you think about it, the more you realise that “natural selection” is just a way of saying “whatever there is, is”. It certainly isn’t a synonym for “survival of the fittest”, since fitness has a meaning and the meaning is not “whatever survives, survives”.

      It seems to me that evolutionary processes have themselves evolved over time so that now it is a much “interactive” process.

    • Dave From NJ

      I will prove to you God exists. God is just a word. Unlike apples, God is word that only exists in word space of our collective mind. To say God does not exist is like saying we have no emotions. Theree are many words that only exist in word space and are just as real: Hope, Democracy, Love, Santa Claus, Easter Bunny, the Spagetti Monster, etc. God, however, is the only word in special class of container words that represents ALL containers, ALL possibilities, ALL logical and illogical ideas ALL at once. So in that sense, there is only ONE word for God. And that word is God.

      • georgehants

        Dave can’t say that I follow all that, but if it says, that any scientist who says there is no Creator is an illogical Dawk, then I agree.

  • Jimr

    The immediate advantage will go to the HVAC (heat,vent, air cond) and electrician technicians and the companies that support them.

    • Jimr

      This naturely is in reference to home Ecats only.

  • georgehants

    Why are schizophrenics starting to respond better to placebos?
    Studies of drugs that treat schizophrenia, what are also known as antipsychotics, are having fewer effects over time — and it’s not because these drugs are becoming any less effective. Rather it’s because patients are responding better to placebos – and it’s not immediately obvious why this is happening.
    Antipsychotics have been helping schizophrenics manage their symptoms — such as hallucinations and delusional thinking — for decades. For many people, these drugs have been indispensable, allowing schizophrenics to live a relatively normal life. But a strange thing has been happening since the introduction of second generation antipsychotics nearly 20 years ago: clinical trials of these drugs have been finding less dramatic effects, compared with trials from the early 1990s.

    What this means is that the impacts of the drugs are narrowing over time, when you compare patients who are taking the real thing to people who are given a placebo.
    The discovery was recently made by the Food and Drug Administration, which recently concluded a meta-analysis of 32 clinical trials that were submitted to the agency between 1991 and 2008. The trials, which involved 11,567 patients, showed a tendency towards decreased effects, compared to older studies.
    But the FDA says this wasn’t because the new drugs were ineffective — it was because patients given placebo pills were starting to show more significant responses. The researchers are stumped.
    http://io9.com/5920649/why-are-schizophrenics-starting-to-respond-better-to-placebos

    • georgehants

      Just like Cold Fusion, it is against sciences religious Dogma, so deny the Placebo and let people suffer.
      No profit in drug free treatment that is so powerful that it can change medical conditions such as short-sightedness or even eye colour, in MPD patients.

      • Iggy Dalrymple

        I prefer concentrated placebo extract(CPE)on an empty stomach at bedtime.

    • Interesting, but off topic.

      • georgehants

        Zedshort, Just another, hidden by science topic just like Cold Fusion.
        Not off topic, as one of the main things Rossi is doing is to show-up the failures of science.
        If there are other subjects being denied in the same way, now is the time to highlight them.

  • Guru

    Benefits from LENR or other form of Free/Ultra cheap energy will during first phase far lesser then BIG LOSSES from losing industries.

    Even after 2-3 years folks will on electric grids, however powerplant, gas, coal companies will IMMEDIATELLY impossible to sell (unmarketable) at whichever price or sellable for equivalent of crap value.

    It is not clear if oil will dive to low 30’s or 20’s prices.

    It is possible another alternative scenario:
    LENR will be launched with big humbug and 1-2 months later there will launch of HephaHeat or Orbo or Hugh Deasy’s technology, which may be higher efficiency with even lower costs.

    In such situations some Luciferians, Molek owl statue adorers, Satanists, Talmudists etc. will conduct suicides. After hundreds years of devilish work against common folks, their wealth will vaporize during few days/weeks.

  • Charles

    We can convert Obama’s algae fuel to the production of filet mignon and other meats. Algore can figure out the process.

    • GreenWin

      Call it Ponzi’s Green Beef.

  • Already many thoughtful ideas here. I think in the short/medium term the degree of disruption will hinge mainly on what ‘type’ of LENR device becomes available, assuming one or more do in due course.

    Probably the least disruptive overall would be small LENR heaters which would allow homes to disconnect from gas or heating oil supplies. However Rossi’s gadget looks moderately unattractive from this POV due to electrical power consumption and an unresponsive control cycle. Assuming a better model (DGT?) such a device would probably kill most NG producers and the heating oil market, but have few other effects other than ending the government tax take from these producers. There would be fairly massive gains available to industrial users of the technology that would more than offset any losses as increased production and new industries such as manufacture of hot-gas airships became viable. Agriculture could also gain greatly from cheap low grade heat energy, leading to cheaper food and increased production. In addition, production of low cost biofuels from waste materials enabled by cheap heat would extend the life of IC propelled transport, at some cost to the oil industry.

    The second most disruptive technology would be big industrial scale boilers designed to replace existing fossil fuel boilers for powergen. In short order, large marine power plants would follow, first military then merchant ships. Large electricity generators of the Brillouin type (may not be ‘LENR’ as such) would be in roughly the same category. Main losers would be the nuclear industry, gas and coal producers initially, oil producers later (as electric cars replace internal combustion), governments (loss of taxes on fossil fuel extraction). The main winners would be fossil fuel electricity generators and merchant fleet operators (after huge conversion costs), railways and industry in general and the rest of us (after a decade or so as transitional costs are absorbed). Direct taxation of power production at source is likely to massively reduce the potential cost benefits to virtually everyone, but would lead to a relatively stable transition.

    The most disruptive development would be the marketing of small electrical power generators that could allow every home and small/medium industry to go off grid, and LENR/electric transport to become an immediate reality. The massive potential losses to government taxation, big oil, the nuclear industry and all other energy sectors would simply never be permitted, despite the huge gains such a technology would provide to almost everyone else. I would expect any company that announces the ‘launch’ of any such device to ‘go dark’ almost immediately and never be heard from again.

    If by some miracle a compact high-output electrical power source *did* become available without restriction, there would be total financial chaos for a decade or two, while extreme adjustments were made, and these could potentially be very detrimental to the average citizen of the West during the transition. It could make the current banker-initiated ‘debt’ crisis look like a minor blip unless the introduction was ‘managed’ very carefully (look what has happened to the average Greek citizen’s standard of living as a result of their current financial difficulities).

    Of course, one the transition was made, life could become vastly better for everyone, provided that governments the world over did not seek to ‘claw back’ their losses of both revenue and power to control their citizens. Unfortunately that is exactly what they would in all probability seek to do.

    • I have no idea why certain words have been turned into links to ads. Nowt to do with me squire!

    • georgehants

      Peter, I am still crazy, I say remove all money and only do work of good to society.
      Millions out of work. shorter working life, less hours per week.
      People can enjoy their lives but still achieve if things are worked out correctly.
      No rich, (but incentives) no poor, no greed, no powerful people.
      One day maybe.

      • Its a nice idea George, but IMHO, human nature precludes it. Small groups of sociopaths will always want power and massive wealth relative to others, and will make sure that the socioeconomic system is arranged accordingly. Besides, who is going to collect the garbage, design and make new things, maintain utilities and hospitals, or build houses if they are not recompensed for their effort in some way (enter ‘money’). I’m afraid I’d rather play than work, any day, and would do exactly that if I had the choice!

        • georgehants

          Peter everybody would have to work until they are say 45, doing jobs that are appropriate as now.
          Everybody is recompensed equally with all needs and fair luxuries as desired by all.
          It would only remove all jobs with no purpose, the rich and any form of inherited wealth or position.

          • But what about the slobs and slackers like me? Do they receive just the same as the hard workers? If yes – lets go for it!

          • georgehants

            Peter, you have picked up one of the real problems.
            We have many ideas how to handle that situation but something that would need much thought.
            Will not go any further as once the positive possibilities are seen then as always the fun becomes in overcoming the problems.
            But in this case not the problem of how to keep the rich and powerful in their positions.
            But how to devise a system that is fair to everybody.
            If I have not convinced you that the advantages are so great that it must be considered seriously then I have failed and you will be responsible for me topping myself.
            Ha.

          • Please don’t do that George! I recant my carping criticisms entirely!

      • Iggy Dalrymple

        Hippie communes are still available. Why advocate forcing them down everyone’s throat?

        No one is preventing you from giving up your money. But that’s not your point. You want to force others to give up their’s.

        • georgehants

          Iggy, I thought we lived in a Democracy where people choose what they want.
          Your comment seems invalid.

      • Dave From NJ

        Although I understand your sentiment, I think the better approach is to apply tactics so our leaders and people in power CHOOSE humanity over their own psychosis.

        The problem with power is it makes have contempt over the people you control or influence to the point where you no longer respect their humanity (either out of fear or pity).

        • georgehants

          Dave you are correct of course, but how to come up with such “tactics”. Most people do not understand they are working much of their lives just to keep capitalism alive, to create a false environment where the rich and powerful can exist.
          It is those people attracted by wealth and power that run the present system, so by definition they will fight every attempt to remove the unequal and wasteful system that we have.
          With production have’n risen since the 50’s many fold, we are now told our retirement ages must rise, clearly insane, if one thinks about it.

          • Dave From NJ

            Yes, there is a lot of insanity. Clearly, anyone with any sense is having their faith in people and God tested to its maximum. As I have said for years, it is the brief moments of sanity that keep driving me insane.

            I have spent a lot of time reading about LENR. I think it is very close. The problems of human nature will, however, not go away anytime soon. But every age fights this battle. I remember thinking, living in New Jersey during the gasoline crisis and 1974 recession, if humanity could survive the 70s we could survive anything!

            Then MTV, the space shuttle, and the Internet came along. And unfortunately also did George W Bush.

            What does it all mean? Mundane or divine? I think all our subjective judgements are choices. We might as well choose divine and keep our faith.

          • georgehants

            Again, I fully agree especially in the Spiritual outlook that can help us all.
            See above article from the Guardian I just found.
            There are people willing to look at reality and try to improve things.

    • Karl

      The question is if we haven’t built too complex and inefficient and uncontrollable energy and banking solutions? We are virtually all of us like passive “paying” passengers unable to control drunken drivers on slippery mountain-roads.

      Thus some of this system and solutions are under heavy pressure to crack and put the majority in poverty and destroy environment. Simple, clean and low cost energy solutions could also help to simplify many large and complex systems.

      Most people could solve the energy needs and in fact wealth virtually by them self and a tremendous innovative dynamic period could start all over the globe

    • GreenWin

      Peter, I have to disagree on the “going dark” part. That’s too much like old Irenaeus (Censor of Lugdunum in Gaul) and suppression of the gnostics. He initiated the Dark Ages. LENR is knowledge in the open. Thousands of experimental proofs, publications and conferences. Vigorous competition to develop commercially.

      One press conference at NASA, NSF, a manufacturer (Leonardo, Defkalion, Siemens, GE) and a couple webcams on a working device… Any attempt to darken it will be met with outrage and uprising.

      Which of course increases viewers.

      • Greenwin- “LENR is knowledge in the open”. That’s partly true, although there is no clear path to home-scale or vehicular electrical power generation yet. It is specifically this that I think will be ‘disallowed with prejudice’, i.e., stopped by absolutely any means.

        I’m assuming that commercial/corporate adoption of large CF boilers will go ahead fairly soon, and just possibly small home heaters (though I doubt it – it’s too small a step to off-grid power generation). Small gensets or vehicle power units will I am sure be totally verboten, unless some way is found to tax their output in a way that can never be bypassed (probably not possible).

        • Amended for vehicular propulsion in the light of PeterWol’s suggestion – GPS tracking could tax by the mile, and would have other benefits for gov’t. Obvious really – the danger of thinking too narrowly.

        • GreenWin

          The vehicular solutions are a bit murky. I suspect massive low cost electric on and off grid will drive chemical storage, e.g. LiIon down around $100/kWh. This would let automakers build compact EVs with 160M range for $12-15k MSRP.

          To “fill” or charge this auto would cost around 40 CENTS! (£0.26) Close to nothing. Alternatively, to put LENR inside a vehicle near-term will meet all kinds of safety issues – if only from the H2 dangers.

          There is likely less of an issue with Blacklight’s CIHT since there is direct conversion of heat to E. Battery EVs are on the rise and low, low cost LENR electricity is a perfect match. Long on EV automakers esp in emerging nations.

          • Yes I fully agree that battery EVs will be encouraged, provided that a means is employed to extract taxes equivalent to those on IC fuels. This has to mean GPS tracking and a ‘road mileage tax’ paid like a metered utility.

            That would answer my case against ‘on board’ LENR being permitted, if it were not for the obvious fact that car power plants could then easily be adapted to stationary power production, if home power generators were banned. For this reason I imagine that all the obvious ‘safety issues’ would be used to completely ban portable usage, as I sure they will be in the case of home gensets.

            People argue ‘how could gov’t prevent anyone making a genset if the knowledge is available and the process is relatively easy’. The fact is its pretty easy to grow and process cannabis but very few people try it because they don’t want to wake up one day to the sound of armed police kicking in the front door.

        • GreenWin

          Your example re cannabis is interesting. In the more liberal States here in USA – there are now legal allowances for growing and using hemp/pot/cannabis. They revolve around a growing acceptance of holistic or Naturopathic medicine.

          Provided enough people become aware of the massive cost savings from home LENR/CHP appliances – it will be hard to legislate against.

          Also, in the USA anyway, there will be a harsh reaction to GPS, RFID or other tracking for tax purposes. It will be ruled a Fourth Amendment violation (Privacy.) Payment of VAT/Sales tax, annual license and registration fees, quick charge tax – combined with lower cost of road construction and repair (low cost energy) will be the ONLY revenue Dept of Transportation get. Period.

          This probably means not so many guys leaning on shovels while repaving a road. Oh well.

          • That’s very interesting GW. In fact it seems that cannabinoids may be among the most powerful anti-cancer compounds available, especially for skin cancers. For that reason alone I’d expect the FDA to jump on any suggestion of relaxing control laws. Over here in the UK, growing cannabis is treated pretty much on a par with attempted murder!

  • Strictly no interest till the e-cat commercialy available !

    • Dave From NJ

      Agree. I think Rossi has something but he cannot control it or understands it.

  • Francesco CH

    Short First Solar (FSLR).

    ps

    A revolution in the revolution within the revolution is going on… Quite remarkable, and still undisclose, fresh news concerning the E-Cat.

    • Robert

      Francesco CH…I’m intrigued by your statement of “fresh news concerning the E-Cat. Could you elaborate? Thanks.

      • Francesco CH

        Only a number: 1000

        • Robert

          F CH…any idea when this information will officially be released? I can only guess..hours, dollars, degrees customers……?

          • Hours of sustained operation of a high temp core I suspect.

            Admin – an edit function at last! We can clean up at least some of our mess before it goes public. Thanks!

    • Dave From NJ

      I heard an interesting theory about all the Rossi websites. All the Rossi web sites are financed by BIG OIL in order to give the impression that something about to replace fossil fuels is just around the corner. Then, this will cause governments to delay huge public investments in proven alternative energies like solar, wind, geothermal in order to keep the price of oil high.

      • I wonder where you heard this theory? I can’t remember coming across it anywhere else.

    • Lu

      About time.

  • Don Witcher

    The jockeying for position may just be beginning. http://www.iltamtam.it/Generali/Economia-e-Lavoro/Ce-l-E-Cat-di-Rossi-dietro-il-divorzio-Angelantoni-Siemens.aspx
    Google translation
    Recently, the Group of Massa Martana Angelantoni announced, as reported, “from 2009 to now .. the Siemens strategies have changed and this change of course also involved Archimedes’ Solar Energy, which was returned to 100% of the group Massa . Angelantoni after the repurchase by the German Siemens 45% of the shares of Ase. Many have wondered what were those new strategies in Germany who had bet on the famous Desertec to produce, with concentrating solar power stations based on the famous tube receivers whose The umbra is the exclusive dealer company and whose name is associated with the Nobel Prize Rubbia. The assumptions made ​​were many and one where the new “love” Siemens would be none other than Andrea Rossi and his “cold fusion . ” In truth it is almost certain that the German company is looking to provide the equipment to be invented by Rossi a 1MW turbine that produces electricity using steam produced by the invention of Rossi. Now we assume that European customers by Andrea Rossi, who will soon receive an E-Cat 1 MW by the end of July, it’s just the German giant. But this is not the only situation in issue: some think Hydrofusion, a group of Swedish investors who bought the license to sell the E-Cat in northern Europe.

    • GreenWin

      I’m going long on Orville Reddenbaker and Newman’s Own popcorn.

      • Don Witcher

        Risk off

  • GreenWin

    IF oilcos and nuke companies are in fact in the “energy business” – they will make the transition. e.g. A typical coal-fired utility company would realize the inevitability of distributed energy (CHP units in residences and light industry) – and move to enter the market. How? License one of many LENR patents/processes and start manufacturing CHP systems.

    Take an appropriately named utility, NYC’s CON-Edison – if they were to produce Con-Ed branded CHP units for single and multi-family homes, provide sales, installation, and maintenance contracts – they have an entirely new “energy” business overnight.

    There are excellent business models for this in Germany and Japan where Tokyo Gas, government and micro-CHP manufacturers install and maintain SOFC and ICE/Sterling systems. The US DOE is already supporting “District” CHP units for industry and local areas. LENR just speeds this roll out.

    The only way catastrophic disruption will arrive is for fossil fuel and fission cartels to bury their heads in the sand of change. There are ENORMOUS new global markets: electrification of transport, residential and light industry CHP, heavy industry local & central power production, agriculture, water desalination, all things “green,” education, military, government, micro-grids, old grid decommissioning, hybrid LENR/solar/wind, etc, etc.

    Remember when TV was gonna put radio out of business? TV was gonna kill off movies?? Economies have a way of adapting to new technologies and savvy players stay in the game. Oil has been primary energy for 100 years, coal a couple hundred, nukes about 50. What’s the big deal about a 25 year transition to a new form of energy? Yes, it will make less $$ for big utilities, and less tax revenue for government – two over-bloated entities that need a diet.

    But home owners, renters, businesses will pocket difference in utility bills – that money goes to job creation, college funds, education, recreation, cost of living upgrades, savings, etc. i.e. $$ previously hoarded by utils and oilcos – stay with the wage earner. This is a perfectly good thing.

    PS, there are always gloom and doomers. They got no faith in humanity… and its friends.

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      I remember when(1954)I rudely predicted to my employer, a drive-in movie theater, that TV would put them out of business.

    • GreenWin

      True Iggy – driveins are gone. Probably as much to do with land values as TV, since box office revenues keep increasing – in spite of internet, gaming, piracy, etc. But they did make a fine place for gfriend grope.

    • Nuclear companies, if they survive, may possibly make the transition as their existing plant time expire, but they may not have that luxury if generation costs fall, and their hidden subsidies dry up. In addition, if they invest in a new generation of fission reactors now, as they seem to be intent on doing, then they are definitely finished.

      With each new station costing 5-7 billion pounds (say $10B), largely borrowed from banks, when they are very quickly forced to shut down by a combination of public opinion, loss of political support and taxpayer money, cheap LENR competition etc., they will only have one option – to go bankrupt. The reason is simply that if they can’t recover their investment, and in addition are faced with decommissioning costs nearly equal to construction costs, they could never repay the banks who funded them. Their reaction would certainly be to cut their losses through bankruptcy, and pass the decommissioning costs on to the taxpayer.

      Undoubtedly they would immediately reconstitute themselves under new flags, but governments left holding their babies would not be in any rush to hand them further contracts for LENR power stations (although of course individual politicians can always be purchased, just as they are now).

      • Dave From NJ

        What is really going to be bad is the owners of these companies will walk away with billions while the tax payers will pay for all the cleanup and dismantling costs. We live in a era of mega-socialists who protect the interests of the few while enslaving the many. The mega-socialists privatise the profits while allowing government take overs of the risk. Is pure BS.

        Maybe enforcing monopoly laws will make a come back after the world gets sick of selfish grandchildren of the super wealthy. The brats only know a life of absolute privilege.

      • GreenWin

        Peter, you make good sense. Nuke builders in Germany have refused to start new UK sites for these reasons. And the banks will get stuck with the bad loans – which should BK the bank for poor judgment. The UK government seems bent on being the last major to build new fission plants. Not even CANDU or thorium.

        Savvy nuke industrialists may learn of LENR’s ability to neutralize spent fuel rods – and then build a nuclear remediation business. Between decommissioned plants and warheads – they’d have business for a half century.

        • Unfortunately Cameron is EDF’s representative in the UK. He is a fool or much worse.

  • Karl

    Here more actors to join the party!

    It seems like we are moving towards an innovative period in the area of CF. See below referred experiment of nickel, ionized hydrogen via spark plug control reaction, hexane plus perhaps nanotube catalyst? It offers a stable 650 C steam according to information on Vortex.

    1. Purchased 60 plate heat exchanger at : http://www.dudadiesel.com/heat_exchangers.php
    2. Purchased Ni at : http://www.xuzhounano.com/a/About/About_Us/
    3. Mixed Ni & catalyst powder with Hexane from J. T. Baker
    4. Filled one side exchanger with suspension.
    5. Evacuated two days ending at 250 C.
    6. Followed http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com procedure using Medical Lesion RFG to spark plug.
    7. Perfect control using pulse adjustment on RFG and Propane flow.
    8. Incredible steam output steady 2 weeks under pressure.
    9. Operating at 650C.
    10. Must now get patent on catalyst.

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  • Dave From NJ

    I been following Rossi for 2 years. I bet it will be another 2 to 3 years and we will be right where we are now.

    He may have something, but he is clearly not capable of controlling it or understanding it. He is too escentric or untrusting to allow real scientists in on his secrets.

    I think Rossi should try to get true independent validation. Rossi should have faith in the people of the world to give him all the wealth and privilege he deserves. Right now, at the rate he is going, he will be dead before he enjoys the fruits of all his labors.

    I still think once Big-Oil gets a real sense they are threaten by this technology they will come down on LENR like nuclear bomb. Right now most people in the world think Rossi and all the others are purely a hoax.

    • Bernie Koppenhofer

      “Rossi should have faith in the people of the world to give him all the wealth and privilege he deserves.” Like Tesla and a million other inventors dying broke.

    • Omega Z

      @ Dave From NJ

      When everything settles the people at the reins, will still be. A few may fall by the wayside, but for the most part the status quo will be maintained.

      Bernie is right. Given any possibility, they will kick Rossi to the Curb given the chance.

      I believe Rossi’s mistrust is justified. Defkalion Stole their knowledge from Rossi. They outright admitted it.

      Sadly, that’s the world we live in & income brackets really have little to do with it. It’s part of human nature. Envy at all levels. The Very well to do may have an edge in snobbery, But even that may be a false perception.

  • georgehants

    By coincidence, and thank you Frank for allowing a subject very much connected to Cold Fusion and it’s effects, I find from the Guardian today.
    Put here because below comment fairly full.

    Yes, there is an alternative to capitalism: Mondragon shows the way
    Why are we told a broken system that creates vast inequality is the only choice? Spain’s amazing co-op is living proof otherwise.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/24/alternative-capitalism-mondragon

    • Dave From NJ

      Communism becomes unstable for the same reasons capitalism fails. There will always be someone in the co-op who will mess it all up for whatever reason. Human nature is the problem that needs to be addresssed.

      I think the world is suffering from a mass delusion about human nature. If the bankers want to destroy the banking system nothing is going to stop them.

      However, if they do destroy the banking system, they have only destroyed the value of their own currencies. The people of the world will eventually shrug off the devalued currency for something with value. Nobody wants to work for nothing forever. You can only oppressed the people for so long. Something will happen when the pain of not doing something becomes greater than the pain of doing something.

      I think we need to take lessons from how casinos manage their money. Most of the cameras are pointed at the dealers for a reason.

      • georgehants

        Not Communism not Capitalism but a new “ism” in line with productivity to give people a fair return for their labour and efforts and remove the obscene, hereditary, rich and powerful.
        Easy to say the things that don’t work, the clever thing is to suggest things that will work.

        • Dave From NJ

          Again, it will all work well until someone in the co-op starts doing something that messes with the metaphysics of the “ism”.

          I think the good hearted people of the world need to get their story straight as to what it means to be humane. We need tactics to influence our leaders and people in authority. Here’s the problem with the world. It has nothing to do with the “system”. All the world’s problems have to do with people in power.

          The problem with power is it makes people have contempt for the people under their influence to the point where the power-holder no longer respects the humanity of their subjects (either out of fear or pity). Once the subjects are no longer human beings but thought of as animals bad things happen. This cycle of contempt by power-holders gets repeated over and over again at every level of society.

          • georgehants

            Dave agreed, you have outlined the problem, now comes the Wonderful opertunity, as with Cold Fusion, to find the Answers.
            This is where most things fail especially science.
            We have all been led into a dark hole where we feel we can have no effect.
            The Elite in science and society has brain-washed almost everybody into believing that what they say is the Truth and the only way.
            We now have the Internet and there are no excuses for everybody not to have their fair say.
            The rich, powerful and opinion experts will try every trick to maintain the status quo, but if we really care about everybody then for the first time,True fairness and advance can be achieved in all areas.

          • Dave From NJ

            I think each of us has a powerful effect over the whole of society.

            Each of us ripples the pond in every direction with our energies. But occassionally, rogue waves, or Q-Waves (pun intended), combined into a single force of pursuasion and something spectacular happens.

            Pun explained: Rogue q-waves inside the metal matrix may be responsible for the fusion effect in LENR. During the LENR process the metal matrix shakes like jello.

        • GreenWin

          Well put Dave, but hierarchies are logical systems of organization. They occur in nature just as does competition. Neither are inherently “bad” unless one group or tribe tries to co-opt the organization. That’s what has happened in the West since WWII.

          Eisenhower warned us fairly. A small group of self-appointed co-opted certain valuable knowledge and soon committed crimes to protect it. The spiral has continued since then.

          Only now we are breaking through these illegal, inhumane practices. Hiding technologies and knowledge is coming to an end. Disclosure is imminent. A more equitable community will be born.

          • Dave From NJ

            I am stoked by your positive thinking.

            However, we need new tactics of influence over people in positions of authority. Our new tactics have to be very subtle. The last thing we need is false-flag terrorist attacks ordered by psychopaths who want to maintain the status quo.

      • @Dave from NJ “Most of the cameras are pointed at the dealers for a reason.”

        If only they had been. It is precisely because they were not that we are losing the war with the banksters.

    • Roger Bird

      Wow, I can’t imagine a true conservative or libertarian having a problem with Mondragon. As long as tax money (my involuntarily confiscated money) isn’t used, I don’t care how people develop their businesses. In fact, I applaud it and hope to see a lot more. The disparity between the top and the bottom in the capitalist system should make any decent person doubt the wonderfulness of the capitalist system.

      Unfortunately too many idealistic schemes involve using my involuntarily confiscated money (tax money).

      Go Mondragon!!!!!!!!!

      • Dave From NJ

        It doesn’t matter how much you pay in taxes. What does matter is the purchasing power of your take-home pay. If you talk about taxes without talking about the cost-of-goods then you hopping on one leg and you look like an idiot.

        I just wish the people who were so anti-taxes had the same level energy with worker’s rights and the purchasing power of the dollar. But this will never happen until we have zero taxes and a currency that is completely worthless. Yeah for our team!! Liberals are poo-poo.

        • georgehants

          Dave if there is no money, there can be no inflation everything is stable and based on productivity.
          No boom, no bust, simply, as productivity rises or technology advances, everybody works less and is better off.
          No taxes no mortgage no bills, everybody starts off with fair needs and luxuries in exchange for a much shorter working life.

          • Iggy Dalrymple

            Money is necessary for commerce. Your idea of everyone sharing everything does not work. It didn’t work at Plymouth, it didn’t work for Mao, it didn’t work in Cuba, and it’s not working in N Korea, unless you like to eat tree bark.

    • Carlos

      Believing in Communism requires a leap of faith much bigger than believing in Cold Fusion, at least there’s no proof that Cold Fusion cannot ever work, unlike the case with communism.

  • de^mol

    Oil prices will drop, but Nickel and Palladium prices will go up. Mining companies in this area will benefit. One interesting thing to note in Nickel is that Nickel sulphide deposits are fairly easy to mine, Nickel laterite is much harder and up to now needs quite some energy input to get the nickel out. There are some indications that this, however, is going to improve with a new technology. This happens at the same time as the breakthrough in LENR, which is in fact excellent news. Check out direct nickel:
    http://www.directnickel.com/

    • Dave From NJ

      Actually, from what I read the reaction mostly occurs in the surface of the electrodes. So the amount of Palladium used is very very small. If fact, it could just be a light coating over a cheaper metal.

      I think you are wrapped up in the fossil fuel mindset and that LENR costs will be driven by commodity prices. I disagree with this way of thinking. I think the real commodity will be the licensing and information assets around the technology.

      • de^mol

        I think you did not understand what I said. This has not directly to do with LENR, but only with Nickel extraction. This new technology will only boosts supplies of Nickel, which is good news for LENR since it uses Nickel.

        • Dave From NJ

          I understand your point and agree. What I am saying is so little amount of metal is actually needed in LENR that in terms of commodity prices it is irrelevant.

          Of course all the metal going into the building of reactors will drive up the price of commodities but no different than any other manufacturing effort. In other words, my point is I do not think nickel will ever become a world currency like barrels of oil. There’s just too much of it and very little is actually used in LENR.

          • Dave From NJ

            “Record Nickel Supply Expanding Glut Thwarts Bull Market Rally: Commodities”

            “Production will exceed demand by 45,000 metric tons, a 73 percent jump from 2011, Barclays Capital estimates. That’s equal to 46 percent of stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange. Refined output will rise 12 percent, the most in at least eight years, according to Morgan Stanley. Prices, which rose 7.8 percent to $20,170 a ton this year, may fall as much as 13 percent to $17,630 a ton by Dec. 31, the median of 11 analyst estimates “

  • Jim

    There will be a crash in boat engines. But a new industry will appear that will replace boat engines with the e-cat. Steam engines will become common for boats.

    Coal mining will disappear almost overnight. Oil and coal furnaces will be replaced with the e-cat. The oil that was going to heat homes will go instead to cars for now.

    When the e-cat generates electricity, someone will sell a device that changes water into liquid hydrocarbons for use in cars. Eventually that will go away when car engines are able to directly use the e-cat. At that point, gas stations will stop selling gas and simply sell snacks, cigarettes, and soda.

    But most other industries will simply save money on energy.

    • GreenWin

      Jim, long before we see a water burning combustion engine we’ll see vast expansion of low cost electric vehicles. Cost of Nissan Leaf and Chevy VOLT will plummet due to consumer adoption of all things electric. Using a home ecat charger a Leaf or Volt owner would pay the equivalent of 10 CENTS per gallon (@ 1cent/kWh x 10 kW) – current LiIon automotive batteries store about 16kWh energy.

      The new Tesla Model S sedan has a far larger battery providing up to 300M range on a single charge. The base model delivers 160M range on 40kWh – meaning you pay 40 CENTS to fill up, as opposed to $16.00 for gasoline. (@40MPG)

      Gas stations have a future selling diesel/biodiesel and fast charge electricity as well as soda. But many will close and our street corners will return to more useful vendors – fresh veg, bakeries, coffee shops??

      • jacob

        thanks Greenwin, it is a breath of fresh air reading your posts,we can all learn from the information you have provided to all,to change the world to be a little better place,seems to be on your mind.
        Thank You.

        • GreenWin

          Greatly appreciated jacob. It’s a team effort.

      • Omega Z

        GreenWin

        The Lithium Air Battery

        Envia Systems
        http://www.torquenews.com/1075/envia-systems-battery-breakthrough-affordable-300-mile-range-electric-cars

        IBM
        http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57417588-76/ibm-speeds-push-for-500-mile-ev-battery/

        Lonnie Johnson-JTEC
        http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1365/is_9_41/ai_n57541461/

        Johnson has also been working on a Thermal Electric converter that may possibly convert at 60% efficiency.

        He seems to have to many pots in the fire & not enough cash flow to bring to market.

        There’s also several other companies involved with long range Lithium Air Battery.

        • GreenWin

          Omega – thanks for these links. I was not aware of IBM’s Li-air project. Excellent. We can expect IBM to put the heat on this R&D when LENR is accepted as inevitable.

          Same with Envia. At 400kWh/kg (4.6Ah) they have a distinct advantage. It’s clear to me we will see these chemical storage systems powering EVs before LENR heat is converted to electro-mechanical motive force.

          This is fine. Again, at LENR’s equivalent cost of 10 CENTS/gallon/10kWh – this is an obvious winner.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    For the chemists:
    I was looking at the May 14th 2012 issue of C&E News that mentions the Rossi. Just for fun, I turned to the back pages to see what sort of jobs there are for chemists. There aren’t any (well next to no jobs).
    Maybe chemists should remarket themselves as subnanotechnologists. Sometimes I laugh when I read the LENR blogs and see the term nanotechnology. It seems to me that most of the time it’s just a trendy renaming of good old chemistry. For example if you were to use a fine powder of nickel similar to Raney nickel (that was developed in 1926) today this would be called nanotechnology http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raney_nickel . If we were to rename chemistry subnanotechnology, would people be paying more attention to what might be taking place in LENR on the angstrom scale instead of the very crude nano scale?

    • Dave From NJ

      I always thought of nanotechnology is like the marriage of software development tools with chemistry. In order to get a 3D printer to be able to print (or create) ALL its own parts, you will need some kind of nanotechnology level material assemblers. What is interesting about 3D printers, is at some point they will become so intelligent that they will try to go out into the world to collect their own toner and make improvements to their own programming. Hmmmm….

  • Guru

    Sure, after clear losers (powerplants, coal, gas, uranium companies) there is another need for another bailout for big banks.

    Big banks have exposition in above mentioned industries in XXX billions dollars level.

    Well, it is miniscule in front of 4 Trillions dollars losses during 2008-2009 unlucky gambling days, nevertheless it will ending in another bailouts

    • Dave From NJ

      I was having an argument with a staunch Republican conservative about local politics. He was ranting about how outragious it was that a local Democrat spent $59 million to replace a few bridges in the county. I just sat their and smiled thinking to myself this guy has no concept of how may millions of dollars are in a trillion dollars. I am sure he thinks the $60 billion we sepnd on welfare is the root cause of all our financial problems.

      • Iggy Dalrymple

        You sat on their what?

        • Dave From NJ

          “sat” was metaphorical for not saying anything to the a hole out of respect for myself.

          A wise person once told me you criticise or satarize in other people what you do not like about yourself. I find your veil reference to a homosexual act very telling.

        • Dave From NJ

          The funny thing about your comment is you assume I was siding with the Democrats. Actually, I agreed with the guy that the $59 million spent was a complete waste of money and a boondoggle. But the point I was addressing had nothing to do with supporting liberal policies. $59 million or $60 billion is irrelevant compared to the lack of law enforcement of our banking laws.

          • Iggy Dalrymple

            My point was that you said that you sat “their”. “their” is a possessive pronoun, so I asked “their what?”. It was you that had the Freudian interpretation.

          • Omega Z

            Iggy

            I cut people slack, because I’ve learned that reading enough misuse of words can rub off on our own. Including English teachers. I also allow for not knowing what Country their from. May not be their native language.

            In fact this adds to a lot of the controversy with Rossi.

            Certifications “Done=in progress”???

          • Dave From NJ

            At least now I can edit my post. Hopefully, it will reduec the number o f errors in my posts.

  • Kim

    An advanced race who commands planet to
    planet transport.

    Do you think they have dollars in their pockets?

    Money and Free Energy can not exist together.

    They will during a transition period,but after that
    they are redundant.

    This will answer all topics in this topic.

    Respect
    Kim

    • Dave From NJ

      Your comment reminds me of something someone said to me once about it was not fair that quarries should be able to charge money for the materials they get free from nature. I pointed out the cost of the materials does not come from the stuff, but from the cost of actually moving it from point A to point B.

      The same is true with “free energy”. The cost is not going to come from the materials used. The cost is going to come from the information needed in order to use the technology.

    • Iggy Dalrymple

      Kim – “Money and Free Energy can not exist together.

      This will answer all topics in this topic.”
      ~~~~~~
      Unless perchance, ya wanna buy something, like stuff.

    • Distributed Intelligence

      I disagree that “free” (low cost) energy is not compatible with “money.” By this I interpret your statement to mean that low cost energy will depress the market for consumer goods.

      In fact, the nature of human beings is rather different when they suddenly gain access to an abundance. Just as when electricity distribution came to America in the early 20th century, there was a revolution in the consumer goods market that readily sucked up all that power capacity.

      The cheap energy era (LENR) will repeat that phenomenon, except at a whole magnitude higher power density. New gadgets that will operate at multi-kilowatt ratings will become available, replacing our old fashioned hundred and thousand watt systems from the 20th century.

      Imagine levitation, climate controlled *cities*, weather on demand, electrified surfaces measured in square kilometers, roads that power your vehicles and equipment, spacecraft operating at power densities that only existed in science fiction novels, etc. There will be plenty of money being spent in the cheap energy era.

      • GreenWin

        Hey DI, you make the future look damned interesting! But all your gadgets seem to rely on hands on building stuff. If cheap energy accelerated our understanding of consciousness and VR – we need only build “Holodecks” to create all you envision. Does this seem correct?

  • Don Witcher

    I think we are now entering an era of the “quick and the dead”
    May 26, 2012, Milano Finanza. http://www.google.it/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.anest-italia.it%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F05%2F20120526-Siemens-lascia-Archimede.-Gi%25C3%25A0-in-vista-nuovo-partner.pdf&sa=U&ei=_ELnT4uqGMr0-ganhK2xAw&ved=0CCkQFjAE&usg=AFQjCNGQfY8SNhIU3-kEG9qgdWGYwG0z6A

    The google translation

    The tune was over. The visions industrial
    about the future of Archimedes
    Solar Energy (ASE), between the family
    Angelantoni founder and the industrial partner
    Siemens, were too
    and have brought a
    divorce by mutual consent. From about
    one month, the German giant
    is no longer a member of the company
    tube manufacturer in molten salts
    for concentrating solar
    Technology (Aeneas) and to repurchase
    The 457c was the very
    Angelantoni group, of which
    has recently acquired
    a share of the fund CDP
    specializing in the pines. “From
    time relations with Siemens
    were not more than once, we
    different ideas on many strategic issues.
    So we decided to buy back the shares,
    to bet even more on our
    creature, “said Federica Angelantoni, CEO
    the company and daughter of a number of
    Angelantoni group, Gianluigi. The assumptions
    studied before taking the decision were
    three: entry of a financial partner
    that acted as kingmaker, sale
    at Siemens
    Italian or share repurchase.
    At the end of the
    choice fell on
    the latter case,
    also because
    “We wanted to be
    sure that the whole
    Archimedes remained
    Massa Martano
    (Perugia), “protecting
    employment
    factory inaugurated
    in September
    of 2011.1piani are ambitious for growth,
    with the aim of reaching a ride
    business of over 24 million in 2013. So
    finding a new partner is playing
    immediately, with the help of Credit Suisse as
    advisor. “In order to participate in large
    international competitions is important to have
    broad shoulders, so we moved quickly.
    And I must admit that we found
    great interest. ” The discussions are
    already matches with at least five players, “the
    including two Europeans. ” The hope is to
    close by the end of 2012, without distracting
    attention, however, from participation in
    calls, and in South Africa, but also
    in Arab countries and the Far East. On
    Italian front is awaiting the publication of
    Decree on different renewable electricity
    by photovoltaics, “which provides good incentives
    for CSP but where
    require, with our association
    Anest, a cap of more than megawatts. ”
    These systems, however, are more
    suitable for large spaces and hence the future
    Archimedes dj will play outside of Italy.
    It is important, however, “that is an incentive
    technology that is all Italian, allowing
    here to build the first plants
    have such numbers as to lower costs and
    going to compete abroad. ”
    P.

    • Don Witcher

      This was the big news on March 18 2011

      News from the group
      Siemens increases stake in Archimede Solar Energy
      News from the group
      Siemens is increasing its stake in Archimede Solar Energy capital from 28% to 45%.
      News from the group

      The aim of the new fund is to support a faster startup of new production line of receiver tubes. The new plant in 2011 will have an annual production capacity of about 75.000 receiver tubes and reaches a number of about 140.000 in 2012.

      • georgehants

        If the unemployed manufactured and fitted solar panels to every building in the World.
        Very soon each Country would be energy self-sufficient by day.
        Will not be done because, no way for the rich to gain a Profit for themselves.

        • Dave From NJ

          Gee I don’t know. If you double everyone’s salary, paradoxically, the value of money would double, but the rich would remain just as wealthy. Wealth comes from infrastructures of leverage. Money is like water and goes to the nearest drain. If you double everyones salaries or put more people to work would just funnel MORE money to rich people not less.

      • Charles

        How can Siemens find the nerve to do that, haven’t they heard of E-Cat? I would be paralyzed if my board told me to invest in solar panels.

    • GreenWin

      An appropriate story for this thread. Siemens AG bails out of an Italian solar concentrator project – likely because they know it’s headed for rough times. Why? Well, the energy produced during insolation of a vast field of CSP concentrators (only daytime)…

      http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nBaWI2hPVZ4/TJNV1pY3xQI/AAAAAAAAApY/8gd_v-VkUow/s1600/a.jpg

      … can be produced without intermittent interruption by a single 15MW e-cat-type turbine. Less expensive investment for more reliable power. Siemens appears to be first in on commercial LENR.

  • PeterWol

    Cheap transport difficult to tax? No, governments will introduce road pricing, for which the technology is already in use: GPS, GSM phones etc. Because road congestion will increase if fuel cost is negligible, that wil give the governments the excuse they need. And of course the abilit to track vehicles will be a bonus.
    Note that if Rossi does not come up with good systems, Blacklight Power are getting ready to supply CIHT electrical generators which can easily go into a Chevvy Volt for example, by 2014. (Note that this is just a technology example and implies no inside knowledge of what BLP are working on.)

    • Yes that is a believable scenario for transport driven by LENR. No need to monitor power consumed, just mileage. As you say, vehicle GPS tracking would be a useful spinoff – lots of governments already seam to like this idea rather too much to be healthy.

    • Omega Z

      @ PeterWol & Peter Roe

      Several States Have/are in process of Legislating a mileage tax. In time all will including the FED. Most, if not all New vehicles have built in hardware already. Think On Star. It’s just a matter of Software updating. Everyone thinks Blue-tooth/WiFi is built in for their convenience. The details are still being debated, but probably will work similar to a pay-pass/tollway account.

      Technically, The IRS could charge people with non-conventional fuels with tax evasion if they so chose. This wont happen at present as it would be counter to political goals at this time. New Rules won’t apply until numbers reach critical mass. Like any new product with freebies until certain numbers are obtained. Then Gotcha…

      This arrangement is also to counter the Tax loss associated with switching from 20MPG vs 40MPG cars & the fact that gas tax is a set amount which doesn’t account for Inflation.

      These taxes pay for the Roads by the user of said roads.
      My concern is how easy it would be to increase the rate per mile in the conversion from a present average of say 3 cents to 10 cents with no one being the wiser due to variations in present MPG ratings along with the Valid argument to account for Inflation….

      Peter-lots of governments already seam to like this idea rather too much to be healthy.

      Yes, They’ll know a lot about you, when, where, How Fast. Just like some rental car companies who tack on extra fees for vehicle abuse.

      The Movie 1984- Falls Short of coming reality…

      • Even leaving aside the ‘1984’ aspects of GPS tracking, the opportunity to hit virtually all motorists with speeding fines whenever they stray 1 mph above a local limit, must get a certain breed of official drooling all over the table. And the real beauty is that it can all be done in the names of the sacred cows of ‘safety’ and ‘environment’.

    • Anonymole

      RFID tags as part of license plate tags to ID vehicles for onramp, offramp use. Cameras will photo un-ID’d vehicles. Onramp/offramp usage will then be tacked onto your registration. Same could be done at stoplights. No GPS is required.

      • GreenWin

        With less conflict resulting from energy abundance there will be less need for big defense and government. Standards of living will increase world wide as cheap energy provides food, water, heat and light for all on Earth.

        The need to build and maintain roads and infrastructure will be financed by regular State and Federal income and sales/VAT taxes. Revenue from those taxes alone comprise government budgets – law demands they spend ONLY what they receive.

        RFID, GPS, highway cams, tracking in the USA are ruled Fourth Amendment violations – setting a global example for non-invasive government. When there is an abundance of goods and services – the need for tax-indulgent government shrinks. Good for everyone.

        • Anonymole

          With more people competing for less resources the need for more and more government will be required. We’re not heading for a free-wheeling lovefest, we’re headed for a police state. I wish it weren’t so, but let’s face it, that’s the direction. Traffic tracking will be a must and nobody will want a return to penny pitching toll-roads.

          • GreenWin

            Wrong for above reasons.

          • Anonymole

            Right for the reason that you ignore a growing population and finite resources. Government isn’t just an energy regulation institution; it’s a people regulation institution. Make all energy free – starting right now and you think government is just going to dissolve away? Come back when the police drones flying above your neighborhood have been silenced and outlawed.

  • georgehants

    Discovery of material with amazing properties
    Normally a material can be either magnetically or electrically polarized, but not both. Now
    Public release date: 24-Jun-2012
    researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen have studied a material that is simultaneously magnetically and electrically polarizable. This opens up new possibilities, for example, for sensors in technology of the future. The results have been published in the scientific journal, Nature Materials.
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-06/uoc-dom062012.php

    • Dave From NJ

      Cool article.

  • georgehants

    From Disclose.TV
    Just a reminder of a powerful confirmation re. Rossi.
    Old but still a good read.

    Rossi Cold Fusion Validated by Swedish Skeptic’s Society
    Read more: http://www.disclose.tv/news/Rossi_Cold_Fusion_Validated_by_Swedish_Skeptics_Society/82134#ixzz1yjn7yqgH

    • Dave From NJ

      I thought you argued validation is not important. But then you go and claim his efforts were validated.

      No validation in my opinion until the theoretical model is well understood and tested. That is why it is so important that Rossi disclose what he has found to respected scientists who can validate his work. I am sure he can get them to sign NDA agreements.

      Here’s the problem, no government is going to allow any LENR reactor to function unless there is a well understood theoretical model. The reason is E/C2 = m means the amount of E created by just a little amount of m is so great it could wipe out an entire city.

      I would love to sucker punch big oil as much as anyone else. But validating the theoretical model and testing if the reaction is safe is common sense.

      What does Rossi gain if his technology, which he doesn’t understand, can’t control, and will not publish a theoretical model blows up a city?

      • georgehants

        Dave, sorry I do no understand.
        You said “I thought you argued validation is not important. But then you go and claim his efforts were validated.”-
        —–
        -Who would argue that “validation” was not important? I certainly never have.
        -Where do I argue that his claims are “validated”, I simply put up the link saying that the Swedish skeptics where convinced. That is quite important I think.
        -I will be convinced when Rossi or any other body in Cold Fusion gives Evidence convincing to me and any reasonable person, until then I will not attack or deny Rossi or any other scientists work without clear Evidence of Fraud.
        There is no Evidence of Fraud.

        • Dave From NJ

          Sorry George, I thought it was you who said Rossi did not need validation if it works. My mistake.

          Rossi needs to find someone like SRI’s Mike McKubre or Dr. Edmund Storms, have them sign non-disclosure agreement, pay them some money to test the device and publish the result. How hard is that? They would probably do it for free anyway. Come on. It’s the same Rossi circus month after month.

          • Bernie Koppenhofer

            Rossi is acting like a smart entrepreneur, he wants to make money while at the same time introducing a revolutionary technology without giving away his intellectual property. Within those perimeters I find him open, intelligent and socially responsible.

  • georgehants

    Italo R.
    June 24th, 2012 at 10:42 AM
    Dear dr. Rossi, in these hot summer days we all are sweating.
    What about you, near your 600 °C device?
    Warm (or, better, fresh) regards…
    Italo R.

    Andrea Rossi
    June 24th, 2012 at 1:37 PM
    Dear Italo R.:
    Actually, I am in the USA, close to 20 reactors working above 600 Celsius. We must collect at least 20 000 hours of test. This is not sweating: this is vaporizing, as correctly the snakes say.
    Soon (weeks) we will publish the report of the high temperature reactor validation.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

    • GreenWin

      One hopes that Ing Rossi will one day own his sailboat equipped with e-cat electric drive and genset. And he will finally sail into the sunset, happy, accomplished and human.

      • Kim

        20,000 hours is 27 months approx.

        Respect
        Kim

        • Kim

          He must have meant collectively

          x20 units = approx 1.3 months for each. ect…

          I can calculate!

          Respect
          Kim

          • Steve

            YES ! Rossi is in charge – 20 reactors in operation, the time is growing near when Rossi will be vindicated.

    • Frank

      Wow – a photo of Rossi together with the 20 e-cats in operation would be nice, wouldn’t it? – Then this news would be a a little bit more than just ‘Rossi says’.
      Can you persuade Rossi do to us this favor?

    • georgehants

      Franco
      June 24th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
      Dear Ing. Rossi,
      when You planned to drive a turbine with high temperature steam that now E-Cat is producing?
      Kind Regards

      Andrea Rossi
      June 24th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
      Dear Franco:
      After we will have finished the tests, that will be our next step.
      Warm Regards,
      A.R.

      • georgehants

        As long as he does not put up a reply saying he has discovered the secret of eternal life, there is still Hope.

  • Mr Ixlpx

    I don’t understand the comments to the effect that government and big business would “not permit” the economic development of LENR. Here are the key variable as I see them, along my confidence levels:
    1) it’s a real physical phenomena – 95%
    2) it can be made to work at all by scientists and entrepreneurs without major funding – 95%
    3) it will be irrefutably demonstrated to be capable of self-sustainability sometime in the next couple of years – 100%, if 1 and 2 are true
    4) it can be made efficient, small and powerful using sophisticated technology – 100%, if 1, 2 and 3 are true
    It these factors are valid then trying to suppress it would be like trying to suppress alcohol consumption. You can make the stuff in your bathtub. Or with LENR, if the factors above are valid, you should be able to make the stuff using 3D printing, a decent electronics e-catalog, and at worst some underground source of nano-metals. People will be putting it in ’54 Chevy truck shells out in back of their Mojave desert trailers. How is big business and government and going to suppress it, exactly? Internet intercepts and black helicopters? Media campaigns to frighten the public? Expensive lobbyist lunches? I’m not getting the mental model here…

    As far as what it will disrupt…how about everything that uses heat or electricity? But where generation gets replace or distributed, services will go up, and the existing utilities and energy companies may be best positioned to thrive in the new paradigm.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Repowering the world: ABB,GE and SI

    Desalination: TTEK, JEC, GE, SI

    Industries that will Prosper: Aluminum, Chemical

    Shorting: Coal, Oil, Oil Service, Solar, Wind, Pipe Lines

    Of course timing is all important. (:

    Please add or delete from this list.

  • duecat

    Frank_ Thanks for the great topic. The responses have been fantastic. I would add that in the long term it would be construction that would be the sector benefiting the most. With domed, climate controlled communities becoming a viable option, there would/will be a move to colder climates and all the steel, glass and concrete that would entail. I know of some Snake River dams that need to come down too. The best immediate bet might be “phosphorus” miners. There is already pressure on supply and the added demand created by new farmland will push prices sky-high. Of course, mining costs will plummet with cheap energy. Copper will likely come down as high voltage power lines come down or are constructed at a reduced pace. Silver should sparkle as an indispensable metal in electronics.. thinking lner control boxes, and continued store of value. Some of the fears about taxes to make up for lost government revenue seem exaggerated. The amount of money saved by governments with dirt cheap energy would be enormous, not to mention the cuts in defense spending that would be available with elimination of the need to police the world. Some of concern over lost taxes seem exaggerated. The local and state taxes on energy seem modest compared with those on garbage and water utilities that would remain intact. The gas tax loss scenario has already started. With electric and hybrid autos already causing concern there is a move toward toll road taxes in some states. This would probably be more fair anyway as most road taxes go for new construction and maintenance. Exciting times!

    • duecat

      A quick apology,I was writing from a USA mindset while I know this is a worldwide forum.

  • Test

  • Brad Arnold

    There could be many ways to prosper knowing that LENR is about to emerge, and consequencially energy prices are bound to go down (i.e. as opposed to what is conventional wisdom, which is energy prices will be going up, because demand for energy is estimated to increase 50% in the next two decades, while supply won’t grow at near that rate).

    My favorite is the Warren Buffet strategy of simply picking companies that are energy intensive and investing in them – this has the advantage of being safe, because those companies generally hold their value regardless.

    If you want to highly leverage your capital, sell short on energy contracts, where companies have signed long-term contracts to have energy furnished to them.

    The best strategy, but one I’ve tried and failed at, is to start a hedge fund based upon the premise that energy prices will be falling. Good luck trying to convince investors that LENR will change the world – perhaps you have better contacts of potential investors than I had…

    Or, you can just wait and benefit from lower energy prices as a consumer, and also benefit from a substancially improved economy via lower energy costs!

    • Dave From NJ

      RE: “best strategy, but one I’ve tried and failed at, is to start a hedge fund”

      I wish people would learn to play craps at a casino so they can finally understand the meaning of the word “hedge”. In craps, hedging your bets is no different than not betting at all. Don’t believe me, play craps at a casino and about 4 bets into the roll start making “dont-come” bets. Watch what happens. You make no money and you still lose for the most part but just not as much. How is that an “investment” strategy?

      Sorry, the whole concept of hedging is kind of insane in my opinion.

      • Anonymole

        Hedging is protection against black swan events.

        You’re SHORT 10 Crude Oil contracts. Price moves down but hits support, and a hurricane is approaching the Gulf. To protect your position, you buy CALL options, in case the price activity or the weather drives Crude unexpectedly up. Your long term strat is to see CL drop, but you want to CYA on short term events.

        Ergo – hedging.

  • Omega Z

    What not to be invested in.

    #1 Cap & Trade-CO2credits. How do you like me now? AL.
    #2 Would be Coal Mining Rights.
    #3 Solar.
    #4 Wind Turbines.

    I think many of us take a narrow a view of things. Other then these 4, most will survive albeit smaller & several merging with fewer total players.

    Even Coal will survive, just much smaller. 10% of the Coal used in the U.S. has nothing to do with Electricity.

    The market will affect how fast things change. It will take much longer then many might think. If LENR comes to market tomorrow, things will change very little except for mood. Hope will rise. But time is required to train people, to build new plants & build E-cats or whatever LENR product is available. You wont buy a new LENR powered car just because it’s available. You’ll buy it when you have the cash.

    The pace will gradually pick up, but at some point it will level off, Because of the technology itself. Prices of certain products will drop. Buying a LENR powered car becomes less urgent when gasoline drops to a dollar a gallon.

    Because Natural Gas is already cheap in the U.S., The home E-cat Rossi proposes at this time isn’t cost effective for me. For others it will be a great investment. Individual circumstances will determine this. Propane, Oil, hot water, or Electric heat are more likely to be replaced sooner, But as the operating costs drop, Because others have converted over, people will only gradually replace these things as needed. When they Quit working.

    The Majority of the Coal fired plants & Nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing end of life & some have been given temporary extensions because replacement plants haven’t been built.

    These Utilities will most likely decentralize to some degree & be replaced by LENR systems. If at sometime in the future, Should individual electricity generation in the home evolve & proliferate, It will most likely be near the end of these systems life cycle. Most of the transition will be smoothed out.

    Several people posting here are aware of hurdles home produced electricity will face. The safety factor. The convenience factors, People want to be able to turn it on & forget it. That will be sometime away. There are other technologies being developed that would/could speed this up, but it all depends on what these new tech’s cost if & when they come to market.

    On Nuclear Plants, The U.S. is actually in a better situation compared to many countries as we haven’t built any new ones in decades. They are all coming to end of life cycle & Only 1 has recently been authorized. Several years will pass before this gets started & you can bet it will be put on permanent hold if a LENR device comes to market even if construction has started. Well maybe. Have to remember we have Idiots in charge.

  • Dave From NJ

    Georgehants wrote in response to LENR on society: “Yes, there is an alternative to capitalism: Mondragon shows the way Why are we told a broken system that creates vast inequality is the only choice?”

    My Response: Communism becomes unstable for the same reasons capitalism fails. There will always be someone in the co-op who will mess it all up for whatever reason. Human nature is the problem that needs to be addresssed. If the bankers want to destroy the banking system nothing will stop them. The bankers have total control to destroy the value of their own currencies.

    However, the people of the world will eventually shrug off the devalued currency for something with value. Nobody wants to work for nothing forever. You can only oppressed the people for so long. Something will happen when the pain of not doing something becomes greater than the pain of doing something. I think we need to take lessons from how the casinos manage their money. Most of the cameras are pointed at the dealers for a reason.

    Georgehants wrote: “Not Communism not Capitalism but a new “ism” in line with productivity to give people a fair return for their labour and efforts and remove the obscene, hereditary, rich and powerful.
    Easy to say the things that don’t work, the clever thing is to suggest things that will work.”

    My Response: Again, it will all work well until someone in the co-op starts doing something that messes with the metaphysics of the “ism”. And then it will collapse like everything else.

    I think the good hearted people of the world need to get their story straight as to what it means to be humane. We need to use more subtle tactics to influence with our leaders and people in positions of authority. Otherwise, we will continue to see more false-flag terrorist attacks in order to preserve the status-quo. Or some other extreme heinous attacks against humanity.

    Here’s the problem with the governments of the world. It has nothing to do with the “system”. All the world’s problems have to do with people in power. The problem with power is it makes the people in power have contempt for the people under their influence. There is a point where the power-holder no longer respects people’s humanity (either out of fear or pity). Something clicks inside the power-holder’s head and the power-holder sees their subjects as sub-human animals. The golden rule no longer applies and “insects” are squashed in response to psychopathic emotions. The power-holder rationalizes their behavior based on the idea that the sub-human scum are not deserving of respect. Any respect given at all would mean the power-holder is no longer in power.

    This cycle of contempt by the power-holders gets repeated over and over again at every level of society. I pity the power-holder because the pressure created by all the responsibles combined with all the fears of not being successful, that is, losing their position of power, must be overwelming.

  • Distributed Intelligence

    Back to the core question: What will be the market impact of LENR making electricity cheap and abundant?

    Here’s my nickel’s worth:

    SHORTS:

    1. Obviously the shorts will be the dino-fuel industries and their distribution accessory companies. This statement doesn’t account for all the political shenanigans correlated with dino-fuel wars and intrigues. The markets associated with oil-empire building will probably also be adjusted down as their reason to exist expires.

    2. Transportation companies that *do not adopt* LENR technology or electric technology.

    3. Utilities that *do not adopt* LENR.

    4. State-owned industries that relied upon heavy subsidies from dino-fuel sales. Do you hear me, Saudi Arabia? Want to see how quickly the desert can advance once checks start to bounce?

    GROWTH:

    1. LENR producers and their distributors (obviously)

    2. Companies that produce vehicles that utilize LENR power sources.

    3. Companies that retrofit or construct LENR power distribution systems, both small scale and large.

    4. Industries and activities that were considered unprofitable or impossible at 20th century power costs and availabilities.

    Unlike some others, I don’t see a big jump in nickel prices if LENR takes off. Nickel is largely produced in Canada these days, but the Rossi LENR process doesn’t use a lot of it. It may become more expensive, but I’m not sure the nickel market could be monopolized like the oil market could be.

    On a side note, nickel is abundant in space in the form of asteroids. Strange bit of foreshadowing, isn’t it?

  • Anonymole

    Minimum time line for 50% transition from fossil fuels to NFE: 20 years. Nothing will change for decades.

    Industry will march slowly on just as it has. Transportation will adopt only new modes. Freighters, trains, airplanes, will never convert. New versions will have to be built.

    Electricity gen will be the first industry to switch but will take 10+ years to convert. 50 years for full conversion.

    By 2100 we should have a new world. Of course none of us will live to see it.

    • Omega Z

      @ Anonymole

      Although I’ve trumpeted that LENR technology will take several decades to phase in, I believe your time line takes it to far.

      My reasoning is based on economic realities & some based on the technologies present state. The latter being in flux depending on changing circumstances. (Sudden technical jumps.)

      According to Rossi’s recent statements on the new core design, there has already been a major gain. Above 600`C heat that’s stable within an acceptable & required narrow plus or minus range for applicable use.

      A single core at 10Kwh instead of 3. May even scale to 20Kwh in a single core. That’s a major scale reduction in size. 1 core replaces 3 possibly 6 cores. The original would have been feasible in new Ships/freighters designed for it. The new cores make it easily retrofitted. Fuel consumption (1000’s gph) per vessel make it economical to retrofit. Trains will fall into the same category. Planes are a totally different story & make take decades, as use of LENR are still just ideas being floated around.

      If the conventional Electric grid is retained, they would all be replaced within 30 years or less. Based on the fact they have a 40 to 50 year life cycle & costs drastically rise to achieve this at the 25 year point. It makes economic sense to replace them when it’s cheaper then maintaining the old. Also no one will spend 5 billion for a new fossil powered plant if 1 billion in LENR tech will do the job.

      There is so many things in play that it’s all a guessing game. As scale increases costs go down & vice/verse. My point. Why buy a LENR/electric car if gasoline drops to a dollar or less after most people have already switched. Because the price of gas will eventually rise to maintain it’s infrastructure to service the few. It’s all economic.

      Home electric production verses grid. LENR appears to have a 30 year life cycle. Turbines on the other hand is Far shorter. Maintaining them may be cost prohibitive at an individual scale. A Less centralized grid operation would be more sensible. LENR appears to be cheap. Turbines aren’t at this time.

      Thermal Electric on the other hand may change this. Solid state systems that are highly efficient with projected 30 year life cycles may come to market. But again, what will they cost.

      It’s all economics. If a person wants to be Off The Grid, Go for it. The technology is available NOW without LENR. However, If your on these sites posting, you probably can’t afford to. Economics…

      • Anonymole

        30, 50, 75, it’s all pure speculation. But one thing I do know for certain – we’re all wrong. We’re like Bradbury or Clarke predicting large scale space habitation: 50 years? 200? 500? No one knows. The only redeeming facet of this whole thing is that it’s entertaining to dream, wild crazy dreaming, but dreaming none-the-less.

      • given the fact that the amortized cos of electricity could go about 10 time less old nuke or coal, some actors might choose to drop power-plant that are not yet obsolete.

        if the 30 years to replace all power-plants look logic, I expect more than 10% in 5 years, and more than half in 10 years.

        for cars it might be faster for total replacement (10 years), but maybe individual will wait 10 years for their smoky cars to die, because they cannot afford a loan to buy an expensive free-fuel car…

        a way to accelerate could be to make big loan program to make people/companies reimburse their LENR reactor/car with the old oil bill.

        for plane, I expect all to be much slower because of safety and need to have a long history. however LENR+gaz/coal to Fuel might be the best transition solution.

        as usual thing can get much faster and slower than rational, depending on financial and cultural reasons.

        about the grid, I feel that at short term il will not change much. with time it will ease islands to be autonomous, and will kill long lines to be replaces by local power station costing less than the line, and producing as much as the line transport.

        with LENR insvesment and maintenance cost are dominant, and fuel is negligible. that is the only paradigm change.
        else this energy is very simple and compatible with existing infrastructure.

        at most it will develop the technology of small steam turbine for vehicles.

        CHP looks a good idea, but I’m afraid it is useless because too expensive for the small gain.
        after all it is a technology adapted to the old paradigm of saving fuel and increasing efficiency, while LENR push to reduce investment.
        it is better to have a cheap LENR furnace to heat home, and an efficient regional electricity power plant for the electricity.

        until recently I was thinking that smart grid and CHP would be the future, but now I’m convinced that local heat, and regional electricity are the best solution to save investment.

  • Ol’ Bab

    A new paradigm for industrial design…

    For a hundred (or two) years design has dealt with the 3-legged stool of:
    Design cost
    Build cost
    Run cost.
    These are balanced as possible to maximize profit, or maybe (in some better world) to minimize total cost of ownership.

    Soon the cost to run will drop dramatically, especially where that is dominated now by energy cost. (The cost to build will drop also, depending on the energy needed for fabrication. but less dramatically). This will shift the way engineering is done in interesting ways.

    For example, energy efficiency, which is really important now, will be dropped almost completely in favor of lower first-cost, bigger size, and/or brute force.

    Just think: muscle cars will come back, big as trucks, and styled without regard to aerodynamics.

    Just a thought guys
    Ol’ Bab, who was an engineer…

    • Omega Z

      Ol’ Bab

      I think it will be a mixed bag. It’ll come down to individuals priorities.

      As an example, We obtained a home that had an antiquated heating/cooling system. First priority was a high efficiency system. 50% reduction in heating/cooling costs. The next step is Efficient insulation. 2 reasons. 1 is Additional cost savings of about 50% & the 2nd is hot/cold spots. Insulation will eliminate this. It’s a comfort thing.

      These circumstances will still be around & bruit force doesn’t always apply. Transportation costs will be cheaper but bigger vehicles cost more. It depends on where a persons priorities are.

      Also, Energy is just the current major problem we face. Many others await that are just as daunting. But I believe LENR will make them easier to overcome & deal with. Such as unaffordable solution’s due to energy costs becomes affordable. Desalination comes to mind. There’s many more…

      Also, LENR is cheaper. It’s not free. If people can situate themselves where they only require 1 or 2 devices or a single more flexible device verses 10, they will. It will ultimately come down to the Individual. It will be pretty much as it is today.

      The saying, “The more things change, The more they stay the same”, Has some truth to it.

      Military’s may scale down. Wars will become less inevitable & less common, But, lets face it.

      There’s Some Idiot out there right now with dreams of grandeur of being the Ruler of the World…

      Hopefully in time LENR will help usher in a new era where these Idiots can’t gain followers & become an insignificant nuisance to society. (Hitler came to power because of an economically distraught Nation).

  • Robyn

    LENR technology is just one of several revolutionary technologies that will transform the whole world in the next 30 years.

    These technologies are converging so quickly that it is going to be hard to consider the separate.

    – * graphene materials
    – * room-temperature super conductors
    – * super anti-friction materials
    – * carbon nano-fiber technologies
    – * google-car (and other A.I. cars)
    – * self assembling/ self replicating nanobots
    – * robotics in manufacturing and assembly
    – * advanced solar energy collection
    – * bio-tech — in almost everything
    – * A.I. — again, in almost everything
    – * 3D printing in everything from:
    – * * metals
    – * * plastics
    – * * and of course human organs

    So, while LENR is an astonishing development in human history, it is just one of several. The Future Shock we read about 40 years ago is just starting to occur.

    So, what should we invest in? Heck, I don’t know.

    My question is, what will an economy look like when industry has no requirement for human workers?