MFMP Measuring Excess Heat

I’m keeping an eye on the latest Martin Fleischmann Memorial Project Celani cell test going on at the Hunt Utilities Group lab in Minnesota. They did a major rebuilding of the cell before starting the current test, replacing parts and reducing the amount of glue used. The live data feed is currently showing (3:35 a.m. US Central time) that the unit is producing excess heat of around 0.5 Watts. Here’s a screen shot of what I am seeing at the moment:

It will be interesting to watch this run to see how things change over time. The power-in has been gradually decreasing over time, and the average excess heat seems to be holding fairly steady. You can check the live data stream here.

  • morse

    I won’t sound too pessimistic but 0.5W doesn’t even power my USB port?
    Isn’t there a way they can increase the output power to 1-5kW and make it believable for the average man in the street?

    • barty

      It’s just a laboratory test device. The device was designed to get evidence that LENR is real and replicateable, and to analyse the nuclear process with laboratory equipment.

      If the physical processes behind LENR are known, it would be possible to optimize the process and get far more energy out of it.

    • Chris

      These are just the baby steps, give the engineers and scientists time. If they can get over the hurdle of proving to the establishment that the phenomena is for real, It won’t be long they’ll be running.

      • Kim G. Patterson

        F&P/MP Team

        Thanks for the work that you are doing.


    • first of all the current result mean nothing yet…

      but you are right those result are not enough to convince dishonest mainstream deniers and mainstream trustful layman.

      there have been already :
      – very good replicated experiments with undeniable result, of few hundreds mW, of far more tha 5 sigma evidences, yet denied (ask jed rothwell and abd ul rahman lomax)
      – few hundred of watt, but less replicated and denied (see
      – proved fraud and scientific misbehavior in the claimed negative experiments (see )

      what does MFMP is only making a new experiment (because mainstream will never recognize some old rejected experiment was good), that is so sexy (transparent in appearance) that the implicit assumed gigantic conspiracy of LENR fraud is impossible to push to the layman.

      Celani in his lab have already made much better results, and his demo is a less precise toy.

      but if you show it to a layman, and ask a mainstream experts, it will be impossible to claim for a fraud… the denier will be trapped, and forced to defend an impossible to defend position in public, or surrender in public.

      it is psychiatry and politic, not science, using media manipulation technics.

    • AstralProjectee

      I agree 0.5 watts does not seem very encouraging to me. What’s to say that’s not from background noise.

      • Warthog

        Perhaps because all sources of background noise have been either eliminated or accounted for. ANY solid proof of excess power “should” be considered revolutionary evidence for new physics. But the naysayers will come forth with derogatory comments such as yours with no factual basis to try to “stuff the LENR genie back in the bottle”. I don’t think that is going to work this time.

        Note that this is a REPLICATION of work already done by Celani, and if this set of tests follows his results, that small excess will increase with time to a quite respectable level (20-40 watts).

        • Jim

          I’ve seen many references to Celani’s experience of excess power ramping up over time, and I give it credence, however, I haven’t personally had eyeballs on this from Celani’s papers. Might anyone have a link to such?

          • Warthog

            Celani has not yet published a peer-reviewed document, but many details are available from his slides and videos given at various conferences. And, of course, videos of his demo at National Instruments. Dr. C is collaborating closely with the MFMP guys, transferring methodology and critiquing their work.

            Note….this is precisely the approach that O’Bockris used when he successfully replicated Pons and Fleischmann’s experiment(s). Being a a world-class electrochemist himself, he knew that the limited info available from P & F would probably not allow successful replication (this was before P & F had published their first full paper). So he CALLED FLEISCHMANN ON THE PHONE and got more details. He therefore succeeded while the physicists at MIT and Cal Tech did not call, and thus failed. Unfortunately, the world believed MIT and CT rather than O’Bockris.

          • In addition, Mike McKubre said that the palladium supplied to MIT and CT had an impurity that has now been shown to prevent PFE.

          • Anonymous

            Dear Bob Greenyer,

            First, congratulations on doing open science. I think I will kick in some charity just because of this. Maybe more if we can microinvest in your project.

            Next, I am having problems parsing in my mind the setup, but I believe what it is essentially is a Ni-Cu alloy wire suspended in H2/Argon, loaded with Hydrogen, then heated, and then you measure excess heat during this phase of the experiment.

            This issue I am having is with a potential exothermic hydrogen/nickel reaction occurring during the heating phase, as we know that Hydrogen In => Heat Out in a metal hydride apparatus.

            What is to stop this from being a metal hydride exothermic non-nuclear reaction that is being accelerated by the heat in the experiment?

            What is the cumulative total amount of heat that would be possible from an exothermic hydrogen/nickel reaction, and could that explain the cumulative total excess heat produced from the experiment?

            Note that I very much want you to succeed (and even better be able to microinvest in your success).

            Finally, with regard to our charity, I see several spreadsheets with expenses but no spreadsheets with income. (It is also not clear if the decimal “.” are for thousands as in Europe.) As long as your a non-profit, it would be fair to know how much our contributions are going to cover your cost + salaries, verses a potential windfall. I at least want to invest in you doing the experiment, not simply make you rich. Longer term, I would like to invest a modest amount in your company if it remains as open as this.

            Best regards,

            An Anonymous Contributor

          • this impurity problem remind me the history of germanium…
            also the begining of high temp superconduction (as Celani participate!).

            so classic that stupidity repeats always the same without learning.

        • Adam Lepczak

          There is a nice upward trend going on. I don’t think it will stop at 1W. We should see more.

      • Anonymous

        Hey, has anyone noticed eCat News isn’t updated for the last 3 days. It appears their web server software has overflowed and jammed up.


        (Sorry for repost, meant to post this at the top level.)

        • SteveW

          Actually, The last post was from Nov 16, that makes it 8 days it’s been down. This happened before but only for a couple of days. Kinda strange that none of the regular posters have commented about it here.

        • Peter_Roe

          Comments were turned off ten days ago. I hope its permanent.

          • captain

            Last thread was nov.2 and last post nov.16 . So…it smells like corpse 🙁

        • barty

          Maybe to much evidence LENR is real, and now the sceptics there are going crazy? 😛

          Thanks to MFMP 😉

    • Ged

      They’re at 1.1 W or so now and growing.

  • daniel maris

    Sounds encouraging.

  • Pachu

    I think this + watts was after a lot of negative watts (power consumption), not sure if you got excess here…

    • Redford

      You can check the curve by yourself, the negative is now largely outweight by the positive (assuming the 0 point is perfectly calibrated…).

      This morning th curve wasn’t very encouraging but in the last hours it has stepped up significantly. We’re now at a +0.7 and a 3 days view on the curve entice to find highly plausible to get ahead of the 1W range by tomorrow. 1W is the max treshold for chemical. Above that point, they’ll probably drink champaign…

    • Ged

      I see it the other way around. It has constantly grown over the baseline it started with by now several Watts.

    • Ged

      Just so everyone knows, the device was stopped and restarted just a few minutes ago to get IR imaging of it done.

      It shall be interesting to watch and see if it recovers back to positive P_xs and how fast that goes.

      EDIT: Already back up to 0.2 W of positive P_xs, without having to wait a day! Fantastic to see, and very important.

      • wookie

        thanks for the info.

        btw did u notice the little drop in voltage of the “blue” wire ?

        edit: its recovering really fast.

        • wookie

          the drop in voltage in the inactive wire is propably unimportant.

          i just womder where the rise in temperature and calculated
          +heat will end up in say 2 weeks.

          great work so far guys.

          • Roger Bird

            It won’t matter, because MFMP is not “independent”. Non-believers will know this and want confirmation from people who are not sycophants, and I mean that word “sycophant” in the nicest possible way since I am one myself.

          • Our current internal testing is for due diligence and experimental set-up design and protocol development.

            We are making it open – because that is how we are founded and it allows more rapid advancement.

            Once established – further replications will be done with respected institutions that will be able to do what they like after the standardised approach has been conducted.

      • Anonymous

        [Comment self-deleted due to repost above]

  • barty

    I just added a new paragraph about the MFMP in the german wikipedia entry about “kalte fusion”.
    I tried to be objective as possible.

    It’s currently not reviewed from a wiki-moderator, but it’s also not deleted yet. I think that’s a good sign 😉
    Normaly some changes with positive content about cold fusion/LENR were delete after a few minutes.

    You can find it here:

    • Peter_Roe

      Perhaps your post will set a new record for CF on wikis – perhaps a whole hour before it is noticed?

    • Ivone Martin FitzGerald

      But that means that the English and German versions of the cold fusion segment of Wikipedia is now forked.

      • Peter_Roe

        Probably not for very long.

    • Ivone Martin FitzGerald

      Removed from view.

      • Peter_Roe

        I can still see it at 14:45, along with “Umstrittene Nickel-Wasserstoff-Reaktion” (Controversial nickel-hydrogen reaction) immediately above, which talks about Rossi and Focardi but ends with a dismissal by Krivit.

        • Ivone Martin FitzGerald

          Peter, you are right. It’s back. Is there a behind the scenes battle between editors?

        • Jim

          Scheiner, Huizenga, Krivit

    • artefact

      Maby you should replace the “wird” with an “ist”.
      “Der komplette Prozess des Nachbaus wird im MFMP Progress Blog für jeden ohne Einschränkung einsehbar”

      • barty

        Your right, i didn’t noticed this mistake 😉
        Thank you!

    • It’s hard to get excited about half a watt of excess heat when some of us have seen much more from Rossi, et al. And it’s a problem, too, because reports like these fit so neatly into dismissals of cold fusion that suggest it can’t be scaled up, the results are paltry and ambiguous, it’ll take years to go beyond this, etc. – and none of that is true.

    • captain

      Sehr sehr gut, barty!

  • andreiko

    Quickly switch to powder variant.

    • edog

      Thanks for the English Andreiko!

      Can you elaborate on your comment?

  • We are encouraged by the current experiment. We are at the end of week two, so much has been learned and so many people are actively contributing and helping us do our internal replication of Celani’s cell. We encourage anyone to review the live data and think critically about what we are doing and how it can be improved, we will be much happier that people give constructive criticism now rather than later down the line, it will save precious time and money. If you can think of a way to kill a variable – or make the whole thing more robust, we want to know.

    Even with the lack of critical IR thermalisation in the Quartz, and other flawed elements we are aware of, if these emerging results can be replicated and improved upon in further tests then we past through all possible chemical means many hours ago. However, we are very cautious, the pressure dropping and other aspects like the potential for “gusts” past the cell, need to be completely investigated. We are seeing what appears to be bursts from the cell – so we may use the FLIR camera to see if there are any corresponding hotspot events occurring prior to these temperature run-ups. If these hypothetical bursts can be detected, then they might be made more regular or controlled by some of the established means discussed by, for instance, Piantelli.

    It is our understanding that Celani designed this experiment to be easy to comprehend and as safe as possible to explore the purported phenomena. Something that might produce 100X COP, self sustain and produce particles of dangerous energies, would be unsuitable for simple lab exploration and would be certain to attract unwanted attention from undesirable third parties. Just as normal people are legally allowed to own matches and a lighter, but not semtex and dynamite.

    Therefore, reproducing Celani’s results, if possible and shipping a safe, reliable experiment across the globe for the purpose of establishing incontrovertible evidence of the New Fire is, we feel the best way to enlighten the masses.

    Once aware – we believe the people will drive investment into the field and allow it to realise its potential.

    • As of about 18:00 (4 hours ago) – the temperature in the cell/Pxs appears to be accelerating but the pressure drop still appears to be the same linear rate – are we witnessing the reaction take off? – or is it just an effect related to the average ambient temperature dropping by approx. 0.04 degrees over the same period. These are the kind of interesting questions that arise from watching the data.

      • Don Witcher

        When you say ambient temperature are you referring to ambient air temperature or radiant temperature of surrounding objects. Just asking and keep up the good work.

        • Ambient air temperature

          • Don Witcher

            Could be a problem, depending on spatial relationships, at very low apparent excess power. If it takes off as we are all hoping then no problem IMO.

          • Hal

            The experiment seems to be running at 180c, why or how do you expect results when Celani said 270-350c is required, or have I misinterpreted the tables on hugnet?

          • Ged

            They are running at the same power level in as Celani did. Their cell can’t hold as much heat due to the glass being so IR transparent, but the wire isn’t being over stressed like previously. It may be the power in is also important in addition to the absolute temperature.

          • Don Witcher

            If its a resonant effect in a NAE then it seems to me that temperature rather than power is the determining factor. It seems to me that the temperature could easily be raised by carefully reflecting back some of the radiant energy. Recalibration required of course.

          • Ged

            I totally agree that heat seems to be the important ingredient. I mostly mean that too much input power on the active wire may damage the wire or suppress the LENR reaction in some other fashion. I would guess that this depends on the electrical limits of the wire, as to where this point is. So much left to discovery.

          • GreenWin

            Ged, it is very hard to reconcile a replication device operating at 50% T of the original. It would seem the IR transparency effectively makes this an entirely different experiment than Celani’s.

          • robyn wyrick

            That’s good enough for me. Donated to the project. I’m so grateful for the effort to expand understanding and public benefit.

            I know (and appreciate) that some people must work in near secret, but projects like this are incredibly valuable for their public nature.

            Thanks again and again and again!

          • Zeddicus Zul Zorander

            I agree Robyn, I also donated just for those reasons.

            To all those involved: my sincere thanks for the great job you’re doing!

  • Pedro

    O.T. News from Rossi… Over at JoNP somebody asked if the results in the 3rd party test of the Hot Cat are worst than the results in the report Rossi presented in Pordenne.
    Rossi answered…
    The results are not worse than Pordenne’s ones.
    Please, wait for the publication of the Report.
    I cannot say more than this, because I am bound from an NDA.

    • clovis

      Yes, it seems that every time someone new comes along , in stead of doing research themselves they will ask the same questions and Mr. Rossi does not like to answer the same question over and over i don’t blame him.
      probably just a troll anyway.

      • Pedro

        Hi Clovis,
        I think Rossi just gave a little bit of new info here…
        Up to now we only new the 3rd party results were better than those from july. Now we know they are as good as his own report. This suggests that there will be an independent party reporting a COP of 11.7!!

    • Kim G. Patterson

      Andrea Rossi has signed an NDA?

      The gansters are very efficient.


  • artefact

    P_Xs now up to 1.16 Watts 🙂

    • Ged

      And still climbing :D! I think it may be accelerating now. But it’s hard to tell.

      P_in is also still dropping, while T_Mica and T_GlassOut are both rising, meaning total cell temperature is increasing. T_Ambient is still stable, so heat flow from the cell should still be steady. The data is definitely suggesting a functional reaction so far for this repaired wire, even well below the optimum temperatures.

  • clovis

    Hi, guys.
    F&P/MP Team, nice work, we’er learning a lot about this new energy source.
    I mentioned you guys to andreu rossi the other day by e-mail,saying he should check you’ll out, he might suprise you guys one day and stop by, or call, anyway i think you are doing fine work, that can be used as a standard in the futher for building one of these devices,–clovis

  • barty

    It’s now for more than 1 hour stable above 0 Watts excess heat!
    Also passed the 1.2 Watts at 00:30 GMT+1 🙂

  • Sanjeev

    Nuclear fusion in an apartment

    The video is awesome and many here will recognize the reaction simply by looking at it.

    • Kim G. Patterson

      I hope we don’t see headlines that say that
      an apartment cold fusion device has gone nuclear
      and contaminated half the community with radioactive

      Just what we would not need.


      • Peter_Roe

        D + D -> n + 3He + (Q = 3.27 MeV)

        At the very least, I hope his budget ran to a neutron detector of some sort.

    • Ryan

      This looks interesting. Would be nice if someone who knows French and English could do a quality translation of it though. Google translate conveys the overall gist of the story but man is it hard to read.

      • Sylvie

        I’m French, but I’m not a professionnal translator, so there might be mistakes. This is a translation of what is being said in the video.

        “So here you see little bubbles.
        You you want me to cut… to close the window? You’ll see a litte bit better.
        Ok, yes.
        So here you see little bubbles.
        These little bubbles are hydrogen. That’s evacuated.
        In frequency we are at 0.17. There is no current.
        Here I up the current. We’re at 100 volts now. We are at 100 volts.
        This is going away, I have to fix it.
        And we are at 55 degrees (////celsius probably///).
        I go up. You can see lightnings (electrical discharges) that are being created inside the gear.
        Here what’s interesting is the amperage. It should go down.
        Here we go. We are at the beginning but we don’t have real fusion yet. It’s the atoms’ cores that go to the thorium. Here we’re at 61 degrees, 62 degrees approximately. It accumulates more and more.
        The more it accumulates, the more the amperage goes down and the more the amperage goes dow, the more we make energy. This is when we see a nuclear reaction. The amperage will go down. And that’s againt the laws of chemistry, the electrical laws. When we increase the current, the current is supposed to increase, and not the opposite, not decrease.
        Heeeere we go. The process (reaction) is beginning, guys. It is only when the needle goes below 2 amperes that we’ll have a real reaction.
        The only danger of this reactor is the emission of x rays. You see a very white light that can emit.
        So we have this little device, a dosimeter, and if we look here… through sun light. Look. You look. It should not go over 0. So this should be checked every once in a while. I put this always just right here.
        So now the reaction (process) is there. We’re going down.We’re going down.We’re going down.We’re going down.We’re going down.
        We are at, we are at … 91.8 degrees. And we are in the “going down” phase. At this moment, we are producing. We’re at a little more than 1 ampere.
        ??? for such a reaction
        ??? product ??? It goes here inside. ???
        Hydrogen is lighter than air so it will go away first, before vapor. Vapor is much heavier than air.
        The needle goes below 1 ampere. Approximately 0.8 ampere. And we are at 95 degrees.
        In magnetic emission we are at 0.69. 0.70. There is no problem. There is no problem.
        Here we are at 108 degrees. 107 108 you see.
        Yes I see I see. Yes yes yes.
        So, here if I put a network of copper pipes with water inside, here you can feel the hotness
        So, if I put a network of copper pipes with water inside, the water will boil. That means I can make work a valve, I can make work an alternator. We go back to the vapor era.
        Here we are at 55, that’s good.
        We go back to the vapor era of course.
        You create vapor very fast.
        Very very fast.
        With less power than usual.
        120 watts.
        And here we are at far less than 1 ampere. You can see. So we are at 240 volts. You can see it, you can see it also on the device.
        I flush a little. ??? under pressure. Sometimes you got to flush. So here we have the process.
        It overflows a little.
        Yes yes yes. ???
        And if it touches you, is it radioactive?
        No, you can touch it, but it’s very hot. It can burn you but it’s not radioactive.
        So here we are at 120 degrees approximatively.
        Now I stop everything.
        Oh yea, it is “one button” to stop it.
        Ohhhhh…(somebody enters the room)… How are you?”

        Sorry I couldn’t hear everything well.
        “???” means I didn’t understand.

        • Ryan

          Cool, thanks for the translation. It’s very much appreciated.

        • Peter_Roe

          That great! Thanks for taking the time to do that, Sylvie.

    • Peter_Roe

      That’s a pretty spectacular firework display – if anything it seems to work slightly better than the Pirelli device. As a non-French speaker I couldn’t gather much from the commentary, but the amperage drop from 5A to maybe half an amp or less while the plasma ball grew in intensity pretty much tells its own story.

      The use of thorium (how the h*ll did he get hold of that?) is interesting in connection with strange plasmas – one lot of the Rohner bros use a ‘stud’ made of a mixture of radioactive metals in a Papp engine I think.

      Perhaps one of our French-speaking contributors could see if it’s possible to get contact details for ‘Julien S’ and see if he’s willing to provide construction details for his apparatus? It looks like a few thousand dollars worth to build though – the guy must be a lawyer or a banker! BTW, I wonder what the black and yellow curved things are? – they seem to have some kind of heavy coils in them. Set dressing?

      • Dickyaesta

        Heavy coils no, no cables attached, sorry Peter. The iron reminds me distantly more of the tomahak design, maybe a joke or it seems more a protection against explosion of the glass container 😉 the red ‘coils’ is like a sort of cover. At the bottom one can see thinner red cover of similar material

        In two- to three minutes cold fusion reactions seems all we need to put the thing in our cars and off we go. Very promising and one click of a button and it seems to stop.

        Saludos, greetings from a possible independent Catalunya, I personally don’t like it. It seems more like a coverup for bad economics, although yes they should get a better deal from the central government, but then I am not spanish or catalan, so I don’t know how much they suffered in the cival war, but that has been over sixty years ago, as we dutch cannot keep on blaming the germans for robbing our bicycles during the war, which was the saying in my infancia.

        • Dickyaesta

          infancia = childhood sometimes spanish words seem to have prevalance in my head. 🙂

      • Ryan

        You could ask Sylvie. They did a translation of the video about two comments above yours.

      • Hal

        (how the h*ll did he get hold of that?)


  • georgehants

    Morning, is MFMP showing excess energy beyond reasonable doubt?
    If so, I am having a little trouble understanding how this voluntary group manage to achieve so much in a few weeks, when the whole scientific world beyond a few Rebels are still buggering around with hot fusion etc.

    • robyn wyrick

      They are replicating Celani’s experiment, with his help.

  • Karl

    It is certainly an interesting time for us that are following new clean energy solutions, such as the important work by the MFMP group. “The Quiet Energy Revolution” we see emerge into real products is thanks to some innovators and people being involved in CF/LENR over the years after the F&P announcement but also earlier innovations like the “Plasmic motor” once innovated by J Papp during 60 – 70 ties and where some of the today’s players the Rohner brothers also were involved in the early days withe Papp.

    The major difference today and 20 – 40 years ago is open Internet, where small but still important innovations for example can be observed by many and taken further, even if threaten by strongest of interest. No wonder there is a strong interest from different powers to limit the freedom the Internet has released.

    Just to take an example from an event as early as 1966. A paper by Richard Freyman, PHD in the Laser, Journal of the Southern Californian Sceptics which can be seen in a link of the paper below. It indicates how human being and species on this globe may have been withhold important information about clean energy solutions, perhaps for 40-50 years. Just imagine how clean and silent our cities could have been if we could have started seriously to use clean energy from the 70 ties or at least started to concentrate research funded by taxpayer money.

    There is an interest reborn in the “Plasmic motor” concept (Noble Gas Plasma Transition Motors) once invented by Josef Papp – Patented “Method for Converting Atomic Energy into Utilizable Kinetic Energy” 1972. A kind of comprehensive overview of this kind of solution is given in this paper also to be found on /vortex:

    If the Plasmic motor works it could be a strong complement to the gas metal lattice LENR generating heat. The Plasmic motor surprisingly does not seem to release heat to the surrounding while releasing kinetic energy, thus reducing waste heat issues to be handled in Rossi et al type of CF/LENR solutions.

    The number of existing applications where the Plasmic motor could be used to replace existing solutions seems virtually unlimited even in a short time perspective. For example motors in cars, trucks, boats and small to medium scale electrical power generation, which the paper above indicates.

    Fairly small home power electrical generators could be boosted by power generations located in cars when people are at home. This further could increase availability, security of power generation.

    I think it is certainly very interesting to also follow projects in this area in addition to MFMP verification and many others that may release products to the market or deliver any other proofs enabling real action transferring todays “Quiet Energy Revolution” into a Lions Roar regardless the mass media and science position today.

    Note that one of the players, Inteligentry, announced it will demonstrate a Plasmic Transition Process Motor Generator at POWER-GEN conference in Orlando Dec. 11-13.

    • Captain Kirk

      I would love for inteligentry to be real but I’m highly skeptical (but I’m 75% convinced that Andrea Rossi has what he claims) I don’t believe anyone but John Rohner has seen a working engine….. Apparently Rohner once claimed on his resume that he had a degree from M.I.T. (which he doesn’t ) I have estimated that the cost of the space reserved at the Power-Gen conference for inteligentry would be around $50,000. but if you were selling licenses and stock , this would possibly be a small amount to pay to further a scam…… I really hope that I am wrong Sterling Allen at PESN also thinks that this is most likely a scam (for what thats worth) I would like to buy a 100HP motor for $1,500. or so that would run for months on $1.00 of fuel! WoW! That would be great!

      • Karl

        Of course it is reasonable to take a careful stand. I do not care specifically about Inteligentry or any of the Rohners brothers but I think we should value their ambition to try to bring this kind of solution forward, if it turns out to be a real usable effect. It cost nothing to keep the door open for them including Rossi et al – on the contrary. We should also not forget that real inventor behind this J Papp, once has demonstrated running machines.

  • buffalo

    a few watts excess heat is meaningless to hard sceptic scrutiny.they must get it up to the tens of watts and beyond.they must use a constintan strip with much more surface area

    • Ben

      Trying to convince hard skeptics is not the goal here. They will not be convinced that this is real until they can buy one at Home Depot or Walmart. These types of experiments are to engage the truly curious (which a hard skeptic is not) and encourage widespread replication attempts. When thousands of people report successful replications, which is the real goal of the MFMP, then the opinions of the hard skeptics will be made meaningless.

      As more people become involved and tinker with the setup and try new parameters and variations, watts will turn into kilowatts and then megawatts. This is an attempt to ignite the new fire from the bottom up. This is the way most fires are lit in the first place.

      • GreenWin

        The opinions of hard skeps are meaningless now. People making commercial products don’t need skep approval.

        • Pweet

          Is someone making commercial products? Did I miss that?
          I mean commercial products which are out in the marketplace and working.?
          Commercial products products which are available to see working?. and certified as having a COP of at least 6?.
          If so I’m really impressed.
          If not, then I’m less than impressed.

        • Stephen

          You are right, but let’s talk about it when these famous products will actually be on the shop shelves. This story has been going on for years. I honestly hope to see those products… but at times it’s hard to believe. Products you talk about just exist in our fantasies, for the moment at least.

    • Ged

      The goal of MFMP is to make kits so anyone can replicate it for themselves. If a few watts excess, if properly and fully measured and shown to be such, doesn’t convince a “hard skeptic” then that person is acting ignorant of science and following dogmatic beliefs rather than rational evidence.

      • Stephen

        Indeed it depends on the error estimate for this measurement. Btw, how large is that? And how was it estimated? Half a watt can mean a lot or nothing… it depends.

        Honestly, however, 0.5W does not seem much for a thing glowing hot. Anyway, this should be judged based on numbers and I hope these guys will be able to sort out all this. One way or the other.

        • Stephen

          I mean, if the error of the measurement is – say – 0.5W… this is still well-consistent with zero excess heat. For instance if there is no excess heat and the measurement has an error E, for normally distrubuted data you can expect around 68% chances to get something within -E and +E; around 95% to get something withing -2E and +2E; >99% to be within -3E and +3E.

          I am not sure what is you favourite confidence interval… but I would wait a deviation to be at least twice the error before even starting to discuss whether it’s real or not.

          I am not sure what is the error here (?). Please note 0.5W is around 1% of Pout, already a nontrivial precision… heat estimates are though stuff.