We are Witness to the Birth of a New Industry (Albert D. Kallal)

This post, written by Albert D. Kallal on this thread was made on this thread, I believe, in response to Andrea Rossi’s statement today that “a commercial breakthrough resolves all the discussions: in the late seventies the “experts” used to say that the idea to produce computers for “housewifes” was ridiculous and technologically impossible. Whatever they are saying now is totally insignificant, as well as what they said in the past.

The “parallels” to the computer industry in the 1970’s is rather remarkable. While some companies were producing a home brew computers like Heath Kit, the REAL race was to get a useable and working computer in the hands of the public. Thus out of near nothing billion dollar companies like Apple were born in a garage.

LENR is exactly he same thing. You have lots of small groups tinkering and playing with LENR. Make NO MISTAKE, this is an opportunity of a life time. You cook up a working device that is “consumer” friendly as opposed to lab coat friendly and you will create the next BILLION dollar company.

It is RARE that such opportunities come along in our lifetimes. The race for LENR is not if it works, but WHO can get a working device into the hands of the public or industry.

Worrying about some replication of LENR is LONG PAST. The REAL issue and magic frontier is producing a WORKING product for the consumer or industry. It looks like Rossi and IH will be the first – as a result they will create the next Apple. On the other hand, just like the Auto industry, or computer industry, history is littered with failed startups. And while some like Atari or Commodore are well known history antidotes (and so is Packard for autos), they were eventually “muscled” out by other players like IBM and Apple.

So really, at the end of the day talk about replication, or sharing some trade secrets to spread LENR is really moot and PAST history. On the heels of Rossi is others like Brillouin and more that will SURELY follow.

We are witness to the birth of a new industry. And like the exploding computer industry or the rail road bonanza, these “revolutions” were NOT based on sharing the theory of the steam engine, or the fact of low cost off the self WHOLE COMPUTERS existed on a SINGLE chip.

Apple, PET, Commodore did not did not build or create the 6502 processor, but simply realized that those tiny computer on a chip were ONLY worth something when placed in a working package that anyone could flick on the power switch. We are now in the state of WHO gets to market first and the replication and theory is a purely a waste of time except for the academic community.

The SHIP of LENR is about to sail out of the harbor – it just a question of who gets their boat out first!
So really, I see little worry here – the advent of a LENR box with an “on button” will fix any issue as to how to spread this amazing new energy source.

Albert D. Kallal

  • AstralProjectee

    We’re witnessing a big black swan event.

  • AstralProjectee

    We’re witnessing a big black swan event.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    Yes, first make a toy. Place an E-Cat into the combustion chamber of this Model R/C turbine.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3jE-PXV-68

    • Alan DeAngelis

      PS
      IH could sponsor an event like this.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9f1ov3pdCc

      • Alan DeAngelis

        PS

        Certainly Rossi’s primary goal is to have the megawatt plant running and doing real work but I was thinking that retrofitting radio controlled model airplanes and billing it as “First in Flight with the E-Cat” would draw a huge crowd (a lot of PR bang for the buck). It would also be a conformation of LENR. The E-Cat planes could stay aloft almost indefinitely (R/C planes can only stay up for a few minutes).
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2FGJPGslbY

    • Alan DeAngelis

      PS
      Maybe do the retrofit with a “micro-scale E-Cat”.
      http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/09/06/ih-working-on-micro-scale-e-cats/
      Use a lightweight lithium battery {like the ones in screwdrivers) to heat the fuel.

  • Sanjeev

    Great comment.
    I was really surprised when I saw the pictures of the latest hot cat in the report. It all started from a big shipping container full of big ugly iron tanks and leaking pipes. When he joined IH , we saw a big tube of the size of an arm, but now we have a tablespoon sized hot cat producing KWs.

    I guess the Ecat evolution is already going on with a stunning speed.

    • I very much doubt we’ve seen the last of Rossi’s modified shipping containers. They’re ideal in many ways – tough, enough space to accommodate tanks, pipework, control wiring and boards, technicians and operators, easy to move around and to position at the destination – and usefully anonymous! I would hope for no more leaks though – that was really amateurish.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    Yes, first make a toy. Place an E-Cat into the combustion chamber of this Model R/C turbine.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3jE-PXV-68

    • Alan DeAngelis

      PS
      IH could sponsor an event like this.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9f1ov3pdCc

      • Alan DeAngelis

        PS

        Certainly Rossi’s primary goal is to have the megawatt plant running and doing real work but I was thinking that retrofitting radio controlled model airplanes and billing it as “First in Flight with the E-Cat” would draw a huge crowd (a lot of PR bang for the buck). It would also be a conformation of LENR. The E-Cat planes could stay aloft almost indefinitely (R/C planes can only stay up for a few minutes).
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2FGJPGslbY

    • Alan DeAngelis

      PS
      Maybe do the retrofit with a “micro-scale E-Cat”.
      http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/09/06/ih-working-on-micro-scale-e-cats/
      Use a lightweight lithium battery {like the ones in screwdrivers) to heat the fuel.

  • wonderboy

    doesn’t anyone think it is weird that Industry heat has not come out and support rossi on the results?

    What are these guys up to…. This is a lost opportunity to really get it out into the world.. are they waiting for a finished product? Are they seeing if Rossi gets roasted or not?

    Just seems odd….. They should have shown solidarity at the very least.. but nothing…. I would love to hear people’s thoughts on this.

    • Heath

      I agree partially. I thought Darden’s interview was tepidly conservative and it reminded me of the December press release in which it only spoke in partial sentences from what the person interviewed said. Rossi has given interviews–even of late–in which were fully quoted answers to questions. Im not sure if the difference means much, but im seeing a pattern. Hopefully this will change.

    • I don’t think it’s odd. IH wants a cheap source of energy, and compete with it on the market. It does not really care if others believe it won’t work. In fact it is good for them if everybody else thinks this does not work, because that means there will be less competition.

    • Omega Z

      They are not ready for the big splash.
      They probably wont be ready until they have some serious data from the pilot plant. They need firm data that it can pull a load. All they really have at this point is Lab data.
      It wouldn’t bode well to say, We have this fantastic device, but oops, It falls down under real world use.

    • Albert D. Kallal

      You bring up a REALLY good point. Why no song and dance from
      IH?

      That answer (at least to me) is quite simple! IH is NOT keen
      on make a public splash UNTIL that plant is running. I don’t know if you ever
      been involved where a LOT is on the line. IH has spent a whack of money, and
      from Rossi comments a few months ago, one can easy speculate they expected this
      plant to be up and running by December.

      In the technology industry we have what we call “burn
      rate”. That is the rate at which you are using up money (lots of money going
      out, but not much coming in). And that money is investor’s money (so pressure to
      perform is attached to that money). In fact if you look at recent comments by
      Rossi, I think it the FIRST time I seen Rossi speak about needing to get work
      done (and the side show of the report is NOW more of a distraction then
      anything else).

      Recall the recent fiasco with Apple and them wanting to
      adopt a REALLY REALLY cool substance for their new iPhone. They wanted to use an
      AMAZING material for the glass. That amazing material is AMONG the hardest
      substance known to man. It is what we call transparent aluminum. You see Scotty
      from Star Trek in this humorous scene when he travelled back in time giving away this secret here:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSmGjB-G6v8

      If you not seen the above then have some fun today (enjoy
      life folks – we live in amazing times!). Grab a coffie and take 2 minutes out of your day. Watch the above two minute clip!

      Of course today, FEW people realize that you see and use
      transparent aluminum nearly every day. Next time at the supermarket checkout
      counter take a look at the product scanner system. Note on the counter where
      they ALL DAY bang and drag things like cans of soup over this small glass area.
      You will see a metal frame with a plate of glass. Note HUGE numbers of
      scratches and dents and abuse such a system takes. In fact the metal frame and “some”
      of the glass looks REALLY beat and banged up. Note how it is all scratched up to hell.

      Now look at the smaller bit of glass in the middle. It is in NEAR PERFECT condition and scratch free!

      That smaller area of glass is made of transparent aluminum!
      Really!!!!

      The “common” term for that glass is “Corundum”.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corundum

      This amazing glass is among one of the hardest substances we have for commercial use today. This an ideal material for the glass on the product scanner, or in the case of Apple – a really cool scratch free glass for their phones!

      Apple has (had) chosen this glass for their new iPhone
      and the company to product this glass JUST filed for bankruptcy protection. Because
      GT Advanced Technologies could not deliver, then Apple was not obligated to
      forward an additional (I think 110 million dollars). The company of course
      EXPECTED to have that money. So they “burned” through existing cash and likely
      them some!

      So from IH’s point of view, the LAST THING they need is a
      bunch of press running around and poking questions. WORSE would be the press “hounding” the customer who would have to say in public that the plant IS NOT READY. Assuming that December was some kind of deadline (and is being missed), then a “group hug” press report only services to shine a BIG LIGHT on the delays and problems
      they are experiencing. A press release is the cart before the horse so to
      speak.

      More important is the “stress” Rossi and these folks are
      under. And I think for the first time we seen comments from Rossi that suggests
      stress (in effect, please give me “space” – I need to get the plant working!).

      In fact, ONCE the plant is working, then all issues and
      pressures and “life” stress will MELT away for IH and Rossi.

      So it TOO soon to go on the public bandwagon – especially
      with delays! And a press release would only force questions in PUBLIC about
      delivery and problems of their system.

      If IH REALLY needed to make a splash, then simply ship
      the existing reactor off to SRI. With SRI following this THP test, then this
      would be SLAM dunk. Of course IH really does NOT want to do this since SRI is
      VERY close to “many” in the LENR field and such a test has many risks in terms
      of leaking trade secrets to those close to this industry.

      So they let some folks they trust in Italy do a test, but not Hitachi, or SRI or “other” groups of people who are actually trying to commercialize LENR.

      So the simple issue is IH is low key and I expect them to be
      so until they can BREATH a si of relief that they purchased something that can
      really deliver the goods!

      I don’t see the delays in the 1MW plant as a huge issue, but
      lots of money is being spent, and the clock is ticking for IH and Rossi to
      produce results. When these issues are resolved, I do expect IH to become far
      more open to press releases and the “song and dance” that follows will become evident
      in how IH deals with the press.

      Regards,
      Albert k

      • wonderboy

        well written!

      • Donk970

        I suspect that the answer is a lot simpler. IH is afraid that one of the federal agencies that regulates nuclear energy or export of technology will decide to interfere before they can get the E-Cat into widespread production and use. In the long run it probably won’t matter to the introduction of LENR devices into the market but in the short term it could slow things down quite a bit.

  • Heath

    I agree partially. I thought Darden’s interview was tepidly conservative and it reminded me of the December press release in which it only spoke in partial sentences from what the person interviewed said. Rossi has given interviews–even of late–in which were fully quoted answers to questions. Im not sure if the difference means much, but im seeing a pattern. Hopefully this will change.

  • Omega Z

    They are not ready for the big splash.
    They probably wont be ready until they have some serious data from the pilot plant. They need firm data that it can pull a load. All they really have at this point is Lab data.
    It wouldn’t bode well to say, We have this fantastic device, but oops, It falls down under real world use.

  • LCD

    Look I hate to rain on the posters parade but I feel like we have to settle back down to earth a little. As much as I would love for this to be the next transistor we need to realize that as promising as the technology seems we don’t know enough about anything to draw long term conclusions.

    There is still a lot of room for this to dissapoint as a cheap energy source. Might be too unstable, might become easily dangerous, might not be efficient enough. We just don’t know.

    I think we will learn a lot about physics and it will lead eventually to better things but let’s not get ahead of ourselves without proper proof.

  • GreenWin

    What this past week proves again is the rather tawdry state of this sim. There is light however, almost entirely coming from the Swedish & Italian team who, via Elforsk funding and continued sponsorship and support from the Swedish Academy of Sciences, Uppsalla University, KTH, Uni Bologna. These scientists have the real deal – a validated long running LENR device that is ready for industrial applications.

    Industrial Heat’s Tom Darden claims he’ll use E-Cat to reduce or eliminate particulate pollution – 1M Chinese die yearly directly due to particulate pollution. IF this is Mr. Darden’s real goal, we need to see a prototype for a district level CHP E-Cat, able to produce clean electricity, and useful heat/steam. Such a prototype serves as the pilot for a series of district level units able to completely eliminate a centralized coal-fired plant. There can be no better demonstration of New Fire than a functioning CHP unit.

    The time for these old school “tests” are over IMO. The whole point of alternative technology is to avoid the traps and bottlenecks set up by the Knowledge Monopoly industry aka mainstream science. So, let’s hear some support for Dr. Rossi from IH LLC, and a plan, or vision or indication of progress to full commercialization. Nel mercato è la verità.

  • GreenWin

    What this past week proves again is the rather tawdry state of this sim. There is light however, almost entirely coming from the Swedish & Italian team who, via Elforsk funding and continued sponsorship and support from the Swedish Academy of Sciences, Uppsalla University, KTH, Uni Bologna. These scientists have the real deal – a validated long running LENR device that is ready for industrial applications.

    Industrial Heat’s Tom Darden claims he’ll use E-Cat to reduce or eliminate particulate pollution – 1M Chinese die yearly directly due to particulate pollution. IF this is Mr. Darden’s real goal, we need to see a prototype for a district level CHP E-Cat, able to produce clean electricity, and useful heat/steam. Such a prototype serves as the pilot for a series of district level units able to completely eliminate a centralized coal-fired plant. There can be no better demonstration of New Fire than a functioning CHP unit.

    The time for these old school “tests” are over IMO. The whole point of alternative technology is to avoid the traps and bottlenecks set up by the Knowledge Monopoly industry aka mainstream science. So, let’s hear some support for Dr. Rossi from IH LLC, and a plan, or vision or indication of progress to full commercialization. Nel mercato è la verità.

  • Gerard McEk

    Apart from the very through words of the article, about why things do not move so fast, but what is different to the examples given it that LENR is an energy source, which are intrinsic unsafe. That autorities want guarantees for safety of this new energy source is clear and because the theory of it stlill unknown it will be hard to get a safety certificate. I believe it would be better if IH takes steps develop an acceptable theory, by involving universities. There is also a danger on this. Once it is clear how LENR works, people may want to construct bombs with it (if possible). In that case we may never see the commercial evolution of LENR, it will be hidden in the deepest fridge. The military will take over and God knows what happens than.

  • Donk970

    I suspect that the answer is a lot simpler. IH is afraid that one of the federal agencies that regulates nuclear energy or export of technology will decide to interfere before they can get the E-Cat into widespread production and use. In the long run it probably won’t matter to the introduction of LENR devices into the market but in the short term it could slow things down quite a bit.