Embarking on an Exponential Ride (LENR G)

Here is a comment posted here on ECW today from LENR G. LENR G operates the LENR For the Win website at http://lenrftw.net/

When embarking on an exponential ride, the beginning always seems boring and flat. But then things get hairy and eventually you look back and say “well that escalated quickly.”

There have been studies that show that people are very bad at predicting the future… the ‘what’ to some degree, but especially the ‘when.’ We routinely both underestimate and overestimate the time things will take. The reason is that technology adoption tends to be exponential with a slow percolating phase as the technological and economic pieces fall into place, followed by a period of rapid adoption, followed by a new normal.

The mistake we make is to think that just because something is possible means that it’ll happen in short order. The truth is that there is a lot of work to go from possible to product. A huge amount really, and it always takes longer than you’d like.

To me it looks like we’re about a year away from the point where the curve starts to trend noticeably upward. The first crude commercial products will emerge and a new market will be born.

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