Embarking on an Exponential Ride (LENR G)

Here is a comment posted here on ECW today from LENR G. LENR G operates the LENR For the Win website at http://lenrftw.net/

When embarking on an exponential ride, the beginning always seems boring and flat. But then things get hairy and eventually you look back and say “well that escalated quickly.”

There have been studies that show that people are very bad at predicting the future… the ‘what’ to some degree, but especially the ‘when.’ We routinely both underestimate and overestimate the time things will take. The reason is that technology adoption tends to be exponential with a slow percolating phase as the technological and economic pieces fall into place, followed by a period of rapid adoption, followed by a new normal.

The mistake we make is to think that just because something is possible means that it’ll happen in short order. The truth is that there is a lot of work to go from possible to product. A huge amount really, and it always takes longer than you’d like.

To me it looks like we’re about a year away from the point where the curve starts to trend noticeably upward. The first crude commercial products will emerge and a new market will be born.

  • Warthog

    Heh…..everything takes longer and costs more than you think it will. But I concur in your conclusion.
    The train is leaving the station, folks.

    • moreover there is the iceberg effect.

      what we see is 1% of what is happening.

      we see only 1% of the possible problems, but also of the people working on it.

      • TomR

        Thank you AlainCo for bringing up the iceberg effect. When thinking about what is happening with the E-Cat at this time, it is possible that there is a factory in China making all the parts, except the reactor, for domestic units. After IH is satisfied with the reliability of the reactors and the controls, there is no reason that they can’t sell them in countries that don’t have laws making them illegal. I worry that the USA and other developed countries might be left in the dust.

        • Omega Z

          Actually, Rules & Regulations are pretty universal today even in China. Enforcement is a little slack, but growing.

          I think many will find that the biggest detriment to E-cats in the home will be the E-cat. They require several hours to start up & several more to shut down. To negate this requires 24/7 operation.

          Ultimately, Energy isn’t cheap when you end up dumping all the savings. Thus you either undersize the system & invest large sums of money in storage capacity to meet peek demand or build to meet peek demand & invest large sums of money in heat sink or cooling towers to rid yourself of the excess.. The later being the the worse choice as you incur costs plus wasted energy.

          The Best scenario is using E-cats for base heating for those who need it & using a conventional heat system for peek periods. Then obtaining their electricity from a decentralized local power plant/grid instead of the present centralized grid system. This will provide the greatest savings.

          This technology is great for society as a whole, but isn’t well suited for individuals having a self contained off grid system. Likely it will cost much more then you pay now.

  • Billy Jackson

    Judging the e-cat type devices for their adoption rate is actually moderately difficult. Everything comes down to its energy savings. something that cuts your household bill by 10% just is not going to make you rush out and buy the latest gadget..

    Most Electricity bills and home heating bills which the e-cat will effect has their largest charges heating or cooling your home or heating your water. Your hot water heater depends on the size of your family and how much use it gets. while your HV/AC depends on house volume and efficiency of the unit. (this is assuming everything is rated for the usage and volume of the given home)

    The HV/AC can cover as much as 30% of an electric bill. while a water heater can cover an additional 15% by itself for a typical family of 4. All are effected by various elements from energy efficiency of the appliances to age, or heating efficiency of the home (does it bleed heat (all homes do) the question becomes how much)

    This being said the e-cat as a home water heater or heating unit for the home could potentially save us quite a bit.. the question becomes how much, it will be that answer that will determine how fast the e-cat is adopted. unfortunately no devices exist for public use at this time to help us judge..

    What we have are far reaching ideas with plenty of potential to change everything to do with the energy industry yet as stated.. the process will be slow to start and build up over time.. i suspect as a personal opinion that we are looking 10-15 years before common useage.. and possibly 20 before its the new norm.

    • Omega Z

      Note: Tho on demand N-gas water heaters can easily cost 5x more then a standard tanked water heater, The operational cost is fairly cheap.

      Due to the characteristics of the E-cat, Their not that well suited for individual off grid systems. They could easily cost more overall then your present energy cost.

      Think of it this way. They develop a Car that gets 200 mile to the gallon saving you $100 a month, However, All the additional hardware to make that possible adds $300 a month to your car payment. Given the life cycle of cars, you ultimately come out on the short end. There is no “savings”. Add to that, more expensive & complex cars lead to higher insurance premiums & maintenance costs.

      Reminds me of a friend who when laid off for a while, installed a wood stove & cut his own wood off of some timber he owned. “Saving” him on his gas bill. The next year he was working & had to buy wood because he didn’t have time to cut it himself.

      He bragged about saving a $100 dollars a month on his gas bill. I asked him how much it was costing to buy the wood. About $200 dollars a month. So how much did you “save” again? Uhh.. 🙂

      Regardless, An E-cat is what it is. Just 1 piece of the puzzle. How it is implemented will determine if there is a net “savings” or additional cost. You can undersize & invest in storage hardware to meet peek demand or oversize & invest in heat sink/cooling towers to dump the excess. Either will require substantial costs & the latter dumps that cheap energy. It suddenly isn’t cheap when you throw it away.

      Producing Electricity adds another layer of hardware And a lot of cost. Randal Mills may be intelligent in his own right, but ignore him when he says you can run everything in your home on DC. The word Idiot comes to mind. You will need an inverter & voltage conditioner. The cost to convert your home & retool an entire industry to produce DC products would be astronomical.

      Having a decentralized local micro-grid(Is this redundant) for “Cheap” electricity is likely the best option today utilizing an E-cat for base heating in the home. Barring some other blackswan, I expect this to be the path that will be taken.

      On a side note, 2/3rds of your energy costs are outside your control even tho you pay for it. It’s the added costs of everything you buy & every service you use. These costs could be substantially reduced. Savings that will be passed on to the consumer over time.

  • Mats002

    South Europe do it, US do it, the Scandinavians do it, Indian, Japan, China, Russia… Germany has Enrgiwende (and I am sure thay has there eyes open for LENR also). What happens in UK?