Rossi: 1 MW Plant Must Run 365 Days out of 400

According to a post today from Andrea Rossi, the clock is ticking and the pressure is on regarding the 1 MW plant that is currently under test. In a reply to georgehants, who asked Rossi on the Journal of Nuclear Physics whether the plant was “producing energy that is literally being used in a productive capacity at the customers premises.”

Rossi responded:

Andrea Rossi
February 5th, 2015 at 6:49 AM
Georgehants:
Yes, the 1 MW plant is for to generate energy necessary to the Customer of IH to make its production in his premises.
Yes, for the first 400 days of operation is allowed now and again a “pit stop” to make adjustments and improvements, along with regular maintainance. The important is that within 400 days the plant makes its full production for at least 365 days. This means that during the first period of 400 days we have at our disposal a maximum of 35 days of stop to make improvements, adjustments and maintainance. The operation is intended 24 hours/day, 7 days/week.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

I followed up with a question asking whether the 400 days has started yet, and Rossi responded, ‘Yes’.

Recently when asked about when the test period would be over, Rossi said he supposed it would be no sooner than November, and by the end of February. I guess the team is minding the plant around the clock, to ensure that they can keep the plant running in a manner that they can meet the stated goal. Any ‘pit stop’ will probably need to be managed just like is done for Formula 1 cars!

  • Mark

    “His” premises. A scoop!!! 🙂

    • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

      I would ascribe that “his” to a literal translation; ‘the client’ is masculine in general in Italian, hence the possessive pronoun declined in the same gender: ‘his’.
      But it’s just a thought.

    • Omega Z

      What scoop would that be.
      It’s been known that the pilot plant is at the Customers premises since the beginning.

  • Mark

    “His” premises. A scoop!!! 🙂

    • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

      I would ascribe that “his” to a literal translation; ‘the client’ is masculine in general in Italian, hence the possessive pronoun declined in the same gender: ‘his’.
      But it’s just a thought.

    • Omega Z

      What scoop would that be.
      It’s been known that the pilot plant is at the Customers premises since the beginning.

  • Gerard McEk

    Quite a challenge for a novel system. I hope they will succeed!
    I wonder if E-cats of the used type have ever run for 365 days.
    Interesting to know how the guaranteed overall performance (apart from being up 365/400) is defined: COP > 6, 10, 15 and what about the quality of steam?

    • Bob

      A thought it keep in mind… the 1 MW plant is said to have to run 365 days… not every individual reactor core. Part of the design of having many reactor cores is that if one fails, supposedly it can be replaced while the plant continues operation. While in theory, this would be ideal, in actual operation I believe it would be fairly difficult to implement.

      The saga continues… I still have hope, but certainly run into times of significant frustration. I am torn about the secret nature of this operation. On one hand, I would not think most companies would require such a clandestine mode of operation. Other companies might.

      Some companies would use it to full marketing advantage and state they are “exploring a possible world changing power source that could possibly eliminate global warming”. If it does not work as hoped, they still could state they were a leader in research and new ideas. Nothing to be ashamed about!

      I am bothered that Industrial Heat nor Cherokee (or any of their officers) have made any comment at all about this venture. Not even a “we cannot comment” or the now infamous “it could be positive or could be negative”!

      Who knows?

      • Bernie777

        For me the actions or non actions of IH and their “customer” confirms there is a much larger entity running the show.

      • GreenWin

        ” I am torn about the secret nature of this operation.” SOP for thousands of companies that make millions of different products. Try and find out who Apple is contracting for next gen chip designs. Or Tesla on their 2018 product line. Or the content of Coca Cola’s recipe. Ask any ABC agent why the “secrecy?” SOP.

        • Bob

          :>)

          Samsung will make Apple’s new A9 processor in Austin, TX

          Tesla will build the 2018 models in Fremont, CA. The facility is being

          expanded even now.

          Coke:

          The recipe:

          Fluid extract of Coca: 3 drams USP
          Citric acid: 3 oz
          Caffeine: 1 oz
          Sugar: 30 (unclear quantity)
          Water: 2.5 gal
          Lime juice: 2 pints, 1 quart
          Vanilla: 1 oz
          Caramel: 1.5 oz or more for color

          The secret 7X flavor (use 2 oz of flavor to 5 gals syrup):
          Alcohol: 8 oz
          Orange oil: 20 drops
          Lemon oil: 30 drops
          Nutmeg oil: 10 drops
          Coriander: 5 drops
          Neroli: 10 drops
          Cinnamon: 10 drops

          Ecat customer? This is like the early days of the Manhattan Project!

          :> )

          • GreenWin

            Bob! Very funny! Last time I ordered a coke and C-burger at McDonald’s it arrived w/o the 8oz ethanol! Bummer. As for Apple, Samsung form factor CPU sure, but TSMC’s got 16nm coming and what about the underlying MIPS or GPU designs? Who is Samsung licensing from? And yeah, Tesla builds in Freemont — but what are they building for 2018?? A “driverless” vehicle??
            Secrecy is as good as it serves its claimants and benefactors i.e. taxpayers. Secrecy abused in unacknowledged black op projects is unlawful. And any involved in such ops are subject to prosecution under Constitutional law (USA.) Maybe time to come clean for some… ?

          • Agaricus

            You have omitted the orthophosphic acid, which requires coke concentrate to be shipped in specially lined tanks, and the sodium benzoate co-preservative.

            http://www.whydontyoutrythis.com/2013/09/what-happens-to-our-body-after-drinking-coca-cola.html

      • Omega Z

        The 1Mw plant has 3 or 6 extra reactors that can be activated(switched in/out) so they can fix any that malfunction.

  • Gerard McEk

    Quite a challenge for a novel system. I hope they will succeed!
    I wonder if E-cats of the used type have ever run for 365 days.
    Interesting to know how the guaranteed overall performance (apart from being up 365/400) is defined: COP > 6, 10, 15 and what about the quality of steam?

    • Bob

      A thought it keep in mind… the 1 MW plant is said to have to run 365 days… not every individual reactor core. Part of the design of having many reactor cores is that if one fails, supposedly it can be replaced while the plant continues operation. While in theory, this would be ideal, in actual operation I believe it would be fairly difficult to implement.

      The saga continues… I still have hope, but certainly run into times of significant frustration. I am torn about the secret nature of this operation. On one hand, I would not think most companies would require such a clandestine mode of operation. Other companies might.

      Some companies would use it to full marketing advantage and state they are “exploring a possible world changing power source that could possibly eliminate global warming”. If it does not work as hoped, they still could state they were a leader in research and new ideas. Nothing to be ashamed about!

      I am bothered that Industrial Heat nor Cherokee (or any of their officers) have made any comment at all about this venture. Not even a “we cannot comment” or the now infamous “it could be positive or could be negative”!

      Who knows?

      • Bernie Koppenhofer

        For me the actions or non actions of IH and their “customer” confirms there is a much larger entity running the show.

        • Andrew Hurley

          A Government perhaps?

          • GreenWin

            An agency of government standing on very shaky legal turf?

      • GreenWin

        ” I am torn about the secret nature of this operation.” SOP for thousands of companies that make millions of different products. Try and find out who Apple is contracting for next gen chip designs. Or Tesla on their 2018 product line. Or the content of Coca Cola’s recipe. Ask any ABC agent why the “secrecy?” SOP.

        • Bob

          :>)

          Samsung will make Apple’s new A9 processor in Austin, TX

          Tesla will build the 2018 models in Fremont, CA. The facility is being

          expanded even now.

          Coke:

          The recipe:

          Fluid extract of Coca: 3 drams USP
          Citric acid: 3 oz
          Caffeine: 1 oz
          Sugar: 30 (unclear quantity)
          Water: 2.5 gal
          Lime juice: 2 pints, 1 quart
          Vanilla: 1 oz
          Caramel: 1.5 oz or more for color

          The secret 7X flavor (use 2 oz of flavor to 5 gals syrup):
          Alcohol: 8 oz
          Orange oil: 20 drops
          Lemon oil: 30 drops
          Nutmeg oil: 10 drops
          Coriander: 5 drops
          Neroli: 10 drops
          Cinnamon: 10 drops

          Ecat customer? This is like the early days of the Manhattan Project!

          :> )

          • GreenWin

            Bob! Very funny! Last time I ordered a coke and C-burger at McDonald’s it arrived w/o the 8oz ethanol! Bummer. As for Apple, Samsung form factor CPU sure, but TSMC’s got 16nm coming and what about the underlying MIPS or GPU designs? Who is Samsung licensing from? And yeah, Tesla builds in Freemont — but what are they building for 2018?? A “driverless” vehicle??
            Secrecy is as good as it serves its claimants and benefactors i.e. taxpayers. Secrecy abused in unacknowledged black op projects is unlawful. And any involved in such ops are subject to prosecution under Constitutional law (USA.) Maybe time to come clean for some… ?

          • You have omitted the orthophosphic acid, which requires coke concentrate to be shipped in specially lined tanks, and the sodium benzoate co-preservative.

            http://www.whydontyoutrythis.com/2013/09/what-happens-to-our-body-after-drinking-coca-cola.html

      • Omega Z

        The 1Mw plant has 3 or 6 extra reactors that can be activated(switched in/out) so they can fix any that malfunction.

  • Ophelia Rump

    The numbers make no sense. If they have a 35 day range then they must know within 35 days when the test ends.

    Do they have a precise start date, or are they playing a game of restarting the clock, after early outages, and pushing out the end date if they slip schedule?

    • AlbertNN

      Seems to be a classic availability requirement. You start operations one day and when evaluating the performance 400 days later the device should have operated for 365 days, or 91 percent of the time. If they manage to get more days it is only better.

    • Omega Z

      Ophelia

      As to the time variance(makes no sense), There will be a period of analysis that will fall beyond the end date. This could take weeks or months. Lets hope this analysis period is shorter then the time of the TIP test ending & publishing.

      I would imagine there is also some caveat for things beyond their control, such as a sustained power outage due to weather or whatever. I don’t even want to think about the possibility of a complete reset.

      • Agaricus

        The period of analysis would be the same whether the test period ends at 365 days or needs the full 400, so Ophelia’s 35 day window of error seems unavoidable in the real world if we take the statement at face value (probably not wise).

    • mcloki

      Why unduly increase expectations in both followers of this site or competitors with a date. You saw the countdown hysteria around the 3rd party report. One day late and everyone would be jumping around yelling Scam. Who needs that?

  • Ophelia Rump

    The numbers make no sense. If they have a 35 day range then they must know within 35 days when the test ends.

    Do they have a precise start date, or are they playing a game of restarting the clock, after early outages, and pushing out the end date if they slip schedule?

    • AlbertNN

      Seems to be a classic availability requirement. You start operations one day and when evaluating the performance 400 days later the device should have operated for 365 days, or 91 percent of the time. If they manage to get more days it is only better.

    • Jimr

      I suspect it will end up being a running 400 days. If they have significant problems after , say a 4 month period they would restart the clock, I believe that is how I would handle it also. I’m sure there will be many modifications/ engineering changes as they go along. We must remember these are also the old cold cats they are working with, the 10k hot cats are still being refined.
      So maybe next year they will ship another 5 or 6 units, following year more. We are most likely looking at 2019/20 before full production is achieved, if everything goes well

    • Omega Z

      Ophelia

      As to the time variance(makes no sense), There will be a period of analysis that will fall beyond the end date. This could take weeks or months. Lets hope this analysis period is shorter then the time of the TIP test ending & publishing.

      I would imagine there is also some caveat for things beyond their control, such as a sustained power outage due to weather or whatever. I don’t even want to think about the possibility of a complete reset.

      • The period of analysis would be the same whether the test period ends at 365 days or needs the full 400, so Ophelia’s 35 day ‘window’ seems unavoidable if we take the statement at face value (probably not wise).

    • mcloki

      Why unduly increase expectations in both followers of this site or competitors with a date. You saw the countdown hysteria around the 3rd party report. One day late and everyone would be jumping around yelling Scam. Who needs that?

  • artefact

    New livestream:

    DB Glowiness – Silicon Carbide Element

    []=Project Dog Bone=[]

    Last night we baked out the SiC element and today we are taking it up
    to high temperatures, we hope to charge a core and place it in later
    also.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMpIxeb_L50&feature=youtu.be

    • Andreas Moraitis

      I wonder why the values for the Williamson temperature are different in the live stream and in the data from hugnetlab.

    • Andreas Moraitis

      Ryan would cut a fine figure in a Hollywood movie with these sunglasses.

    • Leonard Weinstein

      I stated before and repeat hear: Use Molybdenum wire. It does oxidize at elevated enough temperature if exposed to air, but by embedding it within a ceramic structure, it is not exposed to air, and will operate to over 2,600 C. Since the resistivity of the Molybdenum is a function of temperature, operating at constant power (voltage times current) or constant temperature (found from voltage divided by current and using a cold resistance and temperature curve to set level) would control input power controls as temperature changed. The wire is also reasonably priced, and easy to wrap around a core and coat with ceramic cement.

  • artefact

    New livestream:

    DB Glowiness – Silicon Carbide Element

    []=Project Dog Bone=[]

    Last night we baked out the SiC element and today we are taking it up
    to high temperatures, we hope to charge a core and place it in later
    also.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMpIxeb_L50&feature=youtu.be

    • Andreas Moraitis

      I wonder why the values for the Williamson temperature are different in the live stream and in the data from hugnetlab.

    • Andreas Moraitis

      Ryan would cut a fine figure in a Hollywood movie with these sunglasses.

    • Leonard Weinstein

      I stated before and repeat hear: Use Molybdenum wire. It does oxidize at elevated enough temperature if exposed to air, but by embedding it within a ceramic structure, it is not exposed to air, and will operate to over 2,600 C. Since the resistivity of the Molybdenum is a function of temperature, operating at constant power (voltage times current) or constant temperature (found from voltage divided by current and using a cold resistance and temperature curve to set level) would control input power controls as temperature changed. The wire is also reasonably priced, and easy to wrap around a core and coat with ceramic cement.

  • Gerrit

    If we ask nicely, Rossi might reveal how many days the plant has already been up and running.

    • RC

      Well, he did sign it “Warm Regards” which at least tells us that it’s currently keeping him warm. ;>)

    • Agaricus

      At the earliest that must be November 2014, as Rossi says that the earliest date for any results would be November 2015, which would presumably mean 365 days of successful continuous running at design spec. from that date (unlikely I would have thought, but presumably there had been no serious outages at the time that Rossi made the statement).

      Assuming a late November start-up, then the initial test period of 400 days would take us to early January 2016. I’m not sure why Rossi said the end of February 2016 at the latest, as this would imply a start-up some time in early January, which would obviously make a November finish date impossible.

      So the start up can be pinned down to precisely… some time between late November 2014 and early January 2015, i.e., somewhere between about 30 and 70 days ago. Whats a month and a few days between friends!

  • Gerrit

    If we ask nicely, Rossi might reveal how many days the plant has already been up and running.

    • RC

      Well, he did sign it “Warm Regards” which at least tells us that it’s currently keeping him warm. ;>)

    • At the earliest that must be November 2014, as Rossi says that the earliest date for any results would be November 2015, which would presumably mean 365 days of successful continuous running at design spec. from that date (unlikely I would have thought, but presumably there had been no serious outages at the time that Rossi made the statement).

      Assuming a late November start-up, then the initial test period of 400 days would take us to early January 2016. I’m not sure why Rossi said the end of February 2016 at the latest, as this would imply a start-up some time in early January, which would obviously make a November finish date impossible.

      So the start up can be pinned down to precisely… some time between late November 2014 and early January 2015, i.e., somewhere between about 30 and 70 days ago. Whats a month and a few days between friends!

  • GreenWin

    With a full year (365+) of successful burn-in there should be enough data recorded to help both design mods and theoreticians. This data will also be principle in amended patent apps. And it should provide a solid foundation for certification of LENR-CHP appliances like the NRG-Beacon10 Stirling unit from NRG and Deka: http://binged.it/1DJZmZJ (Presently uses NG heat)
    With this long a burn-in period, IH can remove and replace different models of heating elements – varying the alumina coatings, windings, and sizing. This test bed allows development of proprietary “drop-in” heating modules as suggested in past by fortyniner. One could speculate that this heating element business is a prime target of Industrial Heat’s marketing plan.

  • GreenWin

    With a full year (365+) of successful burn-in there should be enough data recorded to help both design mods and theoreticians. This data will also be principle in amended patent apps. And it should provide a solid foundation for certification of LENR-CHP appliances like the NRG-Beacon10 Stirling unit from NRG and Deka: http://binged.it/1DJZmZJ (Presently uses NG heat)
    With this long a burn-in period, IH can remove and replace different models of heating elements – varying the alumina coatings, windings, and sizing. This test bed allows development of proprietary “drop-in” heating modules as suggested in past by fortyniner. One could speculate that this heating element business is a prime target of Industrial Heat’s marketing plan.

  • Hmmm… so this seems to say we can expect some new facts from Rossi and the e-cats sometime on or about April 1st 2016. In the year between now and then there can be endless trolling on the various e-cat forums.

    • Andre Blum

      I am under the impression that we are already several months into this 400 day period

    • Omega Z

      After 4 years of “endless trolling”, We can do 1 more year standing on our heads. 🙂 Tho I would prefer not to.

  • Hmmm… so this seems to say we can expect some new facts from Rossi and the e-cats sometime on or about April 1st 2016. In the year between now and then there can be endless trolling on the various e-cat forums.

    • Andre Blum

      I am under the impression that we are already several months into this 400 day period

    • Omega Z

      After 4 years of “endless trolling”, We can do 1 more year standing on our heads. 🙂 Tho I would prefer not to.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    “ITER, which relies on superconducting coils and also draws on a significantly larger volume of plasma, is designed to maintain its peak output for 400 seconds.”
    http://www.technologyreview.com/news/419057/nuclear-reactor-aims-for-self-sustaining-fusion/

    • GreenWin

      Golly! The HT-E-Cat validated in Lugano was overunity for 32 days. But let’s give ITER another $10B to cover their over-budget mismanagement and 10 year behind schedule.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    “ITER, which relies on superconducting coils and also draws on a significantly larger volume of plasma, is designed to maintain its peak output for 400 seconds.”
    http://www.technologyreview.com/news/419057/nuclear-reactor-aims-for-self-sustaining-fusion/

    • GreenWin

      Golly! The HT-E-Cat validated in Lugano was overunity for 32 days. But let’s give ITER another $10B to cover their over-budget mismanagement and 10 year behind schedule.

  • GreenWin

    An agency of government standing on very shaky legal turf?

  • BillH

    OK, we now have several fact and assumptions which we can use to forecast what should transpire, regardless of what Mr Rossi’s client might be expecting. The design is for a 1MW plant with a COP of 6 allowing for 35 days of outage within a 400 day run. Presumable these are the terms agreed by Mr Rossi and his client, So, we might expect that after 400/6 days or 68 days that the amount of heat supplied to the plant would have cost 1/6th the price of it’s original energy bill. In the worst case there may have been 35 days of downtime. So, we can expect a positive result after 68+35=123 days. I’d therefore expect to see some positive indications of success within 4 months as of now, since the test has already started. Being more optimistic, we might see some good news within 14 weeks.

    • Uncle Bob

      I’m sure all the intermediate reports will be that the ‘plant’ is performing up to expectations. That is what we heard for the previous 1MW unit sold to the secret military customer.
      Perhaps someone could ask how that’s going now. It’s been in operation for years now so it should be able to provide some meaningful statistics. They might even have ordered some more.

  • Anothercoilgun

    Its been years since “cross your fingers” waiting for results. Been following…. Will no longer follow. Moving on.

    In 3 more years, some of you will come back to read this and many other Rossi articles. If not now, you too will be where I am now. Welcome to the time drift. Too bad you are on the back end of the wave 🙂 I will give those in my wake some advice: Spend your time elsewhere.

  • Uncle Bob

    I’m sure all the intermediate reports will be that the ‘plant’ is performing up to expectations. That is what we heard for the previous 1MW unit sold to the secret military customer.
    Perhaps someone could ask how that’s going now. It’s been in operation for years now so it should be able to provide some meaningful statistics. They might even have ordered some more.

  • fanboy

    I first heard about the 1MW plant 3 years ago, and the 400 days test 2 years ago…other labs are making huge progrmess, Rossi has proven to be quite a disappointment. All the market needs is a SINGLE, sometimes working, Proof of Conocept Generator…and we are not getting it.

  • Sam

    With the E CAT project patience is needed.

  • BillH

    Further to my previous post,I did a little research on the average price of 1MW/h of electrically provided power and came up with an average production cost of $200. So, 200*365*24 or $175200 would be the cost of energy for a year on continuous full load. If we assume demand always exceeds supply so there is no need to throttle back output which would obviously decrease efficiency, and an initial cost of $1M for manufacture, installation and maintenance. we might expect to see the plant break even between months 7-8, surely reaching this point would be considered a major success.