Will LENR Reach Mass Adoption Faster than any Technology? (Mats Lewan)

The following post was submitted by Mats Lewan

You often hear that new technologies spread to reach global mass adoption at an ever increasing speed — from electricity, telephones, radio and television to PCs, mobile phones and the web.

The hypothesis seems accurate and also reasonable, given that the world is getting increasingly connected in several ways, both with regard to communications, transportation and commerce, but it’s actually not correct.

You can read about such a claim in an article on The Vox from 2014, and also how it was debunked by Gizmodo.

One reason for this mechanism not to be so simple is that different technologies rely on different conditions and requirements.

The refrigerator was an invention that basically only had to be manufactured and distributed. Electricity and telephones required deployment of new wide area networks, whereas, radio and television only needed wireless networks with long reaching transmitter stations.

Cellular phones needed a much denser wireless network, and the internet, if you count from the first message over the Arpanet, needed a whole lot of new thinking in order to arrive at the idea of www, and then develop from there.

So where do we put LENR based technologies in that picture?

Assuming that we arrive at a validated heat producing technology within a year, huge interest will arrise and it shouldn’t take much time for scientists to make all kinds of measurements and arrive at a theory that describes the phenomenon in detail.

At that point you have access to an energy source with a fuel consumption potentially shrunk by a factor one million compared to chemical fuels. That corresponds to a jump of 40 years in computing technology, based on Moore’s Law. And there you have the incentive for investing engineering resources to solve problems and develop applications.

The most obvious application is water heating, and even though we know the difficulties to get the technology certified for consumer use, consumer devices for this purpose could not be far off.

Such an application would be similar to the refrigerator that went mainstream in the US in less than ten years in the 1930’s. 90 years later this process could be significantly accelerated. What you need is manufacturing, distribution and a service network.

What happens next contains many unknowns. Possibilities of direct conversion to electricity. Strategies of the car industry. Desperate competition from other technologies. Governmental policies on taxes and regulation.

But essentially, compared to other recent technologies that have reached mass adoption, deployment is straight forward. No need for new networks. No new infrastructure.

What will be needed is innovation. Lots of innovation. To scale the technology down, and up. To develop new applications. The time scale is unpredictable, but again, there’s no basic need for infrastructure.

Given the emergency with which the world needs a clean energy source — almost as in a classic disaster movie — and given the potential cost savings LENR could bring to many industries, I can see no reason to believe that LENR based technology in its basic forms couldn’t reach global mass adoption very fast, maybe faster than any other technology so far.

Which would mean about 15 years from now.

Mats Lewan is a reporter for the Swedish science and technology magazine Ny Teknik, and author of the book An Impossible Invention

  • SG

    Way to be thinking out ahead on this Mats. BTW, just purchased your book and look forward to the read. I think one of the key aspects that will fuel the adoption rate is inter-state competition.

    In other words, the first nation state to 1) acknowledge and recognize LENR’s potential, 2) provide a regulatory framework that fosters its adoption and prevents barriers to market adoption (e.g., ensuring that entrenched players do not crush new entrants), and 3) provides tax incentives for its adoption (e.g., tax credits for purchase and installation of home-based CHP device), will quickly provide an abundant future for their population the likes of which the world has never seen before. This in turn will cause other nation states to adapt quickly or be left behind. It will become a world-wide race to a future of nearly unlimited potential.

    On the other hand, tyrants and despots will fear this technology like no other. But their efforts to suppress it will be like a sinking ship with the only life boat available being the adoption of LENR, and loss of their grip on their populations. The world will taste freedom and independence on a level never experienced before.

  • Mats002

    Interesting discussion, how about comparing LENR to the adaption of LEDs? I can see many similarities; the effect was discovered long time ago about 1930, the effect was weak and first production for practical application came in the early 1960:s as indicator lamps, red color only.
    Then in early 90:s LED+ was discovered. Not only did we get all colors but also white very bright light, today even the front light of cars going LED.

    LED:s are on the shelfs of every store, even where we buy food. All lamps will be LED. We will wrap our house in colored and blinking LEDs, our TV is LED, soon our LED wall paper will show living pictures. Poor people can read and be educated thanks to LED (and a solar powered battery). LED will have the record of mass adoption I think. It needs no infrastructure just like LENR.
    My family understands LED but not at all my enthusiasm for LENR. My enthusiasm for LED was 35 years ago. It takes time…

  • Gerard McEk

    I agree with Mats that the introduction of the E-car as An energy source can be ultra fast, Maybe quicker than his assumed 15 years. Scale up and down make it divers and a stand alone electric source will take longer and wiil be a slower development, but that will happen in parallel. Let us hope that patents on LENR basic technology dous not slow-down this development process, that would be a crime to humanity.

  • georgehants

    It can hardly be slower than the 25 years that main-line science has taken so far and still today not one of the premier science comics in the main Western area has said a word regarding the progress of Cold Fusion Research by the True scientists in this World.
    The average scientists must feel they exist in conditions as bad as the worst time in Russian dictatorship and censorship etc.
    Now the Wonderful free Russians etc. are freely doing what scientists in this country should have been doing for years.
    One can mention, on one hand, the few True brave scientists that exist in the West, Nobelist, Brian Josephson being the highest ranking.
    Every scientist who has not publicly spoken out against this dictatorship and establishment censoring is guilty of condoning by omission the suffering and deaths possibly occurring throughout the World, directly attributable to the failure of scientists to rise-up against their establishment.

  • georgehants

    One could write several books on the many things that science closes it’s eye’s to.
    Everyone of them is connected to the cover-up of Cold Fusion.
    When will science become “open” and do the job they are paid for.
    Solve mysteries of the unknown not run and hide under the table every-time somebody mentions the Evidence for a phenomenon.
    Mohenjo-Daro: An Ancient Nuclear Mystery
    I recently offered a post on spontaneous fission
    – that is, a naturally occurring nuclear reaction – and the astounding
    discovery made in 1972, wherein French physicist Francis Perrin found
    sixteen naturally occurring nuclear reactors in Central Africa that are
    1.7 billion years old. Some of you might be thinking that’s
    impossible. To those people I simply point to the Sun and shake my
    head, though granted, that’s a slightly different kind of nuclear

    • Jouni

      And when will governments stop making patents unavailable, think there are some 6000 classified patents in USA that are thus being denied further development. Who benefits of such?

  • The answer to that question depends on much more than mastering the science and technology. It is primarily an economics question. There are many great ideas and new technologies that either never get adopted or take decades to make any kind of inroads, the main reasons being cost and competition.

    LENR shows every sign of being very low cost and superior in many ways to its competition.

    I believe this points to very rapid and deep penetration (relatively speaking) of LENR into our lives. But we’re still at step minus 1: a poorly understood effect that most of the world thinks is impossible and no commercial product (save the E-Cat 1 MW plant available to — count’ em — 1 unknown customer).

    We need widespread replication and we need one brave LENR company to drop its shorts and shock the world. How about you Brillouin? You’re in second place, how about a sprint to the finish line?

  • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

    The major unknown is how long it will take to figure out the theory behind LENR. Once someone demonstrates the math that explains LENR in accordance tot he standard model, we will be able to PREDICT new LENR reactions. This will accelerate the speed of future R&D like mad. If we have to do things Ad Hoc, like we currently do with superconductor tech, it will be quite a bit slower to reach maximum efficiency.

    • georgehants

      Nicholas, do you think it would help if many of the highly qualified people at present working with the slightly delayed Hot Fusion where to be transferred to the seemingly much more promising Cold Fusion?

      • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

        its going to happen naturally, I’m a scientist, and i know scientists… there is going to be the 1989 announcement all over again, except this time it won’t be denied, these physicists won’t be able to NOT work on LENR, it will just be too much of a temptation.

        • georgehants

          Certainly admire your optimism, so far a group of very highly Qualified scientists have written the third party E-Cat report confirming Mr. Rossi’s work, that appears to have been generally censored from publication in the
          West, a highly qualified Russian scientist has announced the replication
          of Cold Fusion.
          Not a word from the premier scientific comics or science establishment etc.
          How would you explain that?

          • f sedei

            Embarrassed, maybe?

          • georgehants

            f sedei, I don’t understand.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            publish or perish… nothing published in peer review. the thing is… its not scientists that are going to start the next cascade, it will be mainstream media… but to work it needs to be irrefutable, completely free of doubt, and USEFUL. the 1MW plant, if the customer allows the right coverage, could be this thing.

          • georgehants

            Nicholas, do you agree mostly all western media in owned by corrupt capitalistic interests, no longer can we rely on the freedom of the press, any reporter, as has been shown many times, who goes against the owners editorial dictates is quickly removed by dismissal or suspiciously in many cases, far worse.
            Even the British BBC that once was looked on as independent is now nothing more than an establishment mouthpiece.
            Only a editorial in a major Western scientific comic will start the ball rolling regrading Cold Fusion and we so far see that they are censored beyond belief.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            Actually no, I don’t think anyone controls anything anymore, the world has become far too global for that. pretty much very one i know gets their news online now, and there no censoring the internet. even when I lived in Beijing, and middle class people there have all the access to uncensored media they want, through VPNs and stuff…
            The reason that the media doesn’t cover CF isn’t because theres some boogyman stopping them, you might not like to hear this but its because nobody cares. CF as a news story is and has been for the last 20 years a “well ok it might work, but its still not close to being useful, so whatever” to most viewers, so why bother wading the controversy?
            Its the reason that people don’t really care about hot fusion either, hot fusion has the added ‘cool factor’ though of trying to put the sun in a bottle, and there no controversy associated, so you still see it in the news.

          • georgehants

            Nicholas, it is never a case of “what one wants to hear” that is what causes much of the trouble, only Truth matters.
            I disagree, capitalism is fundamentally and provably corrupt in many areas, dominated like many people with excessive profit concerns.
            I agree the Internet at present is a Powerful independent organ that we must protect from the censoring attacks that will come under the guise of “what is best for people”
            I am discussing scientists not the population as a whole who must always be led, but it is the responsibility of those in power to lead them well, do you not agree?
            You seem to be downgrading those scientists to acting with the attitude that “they just don’t care,” well it is time that they did care, I think.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            If you want to exploit the capitalist system you just need to make a story that is worth SELLING is all I’m saying, right now, CF is not really a story worth selling.
            no one can censor a story that is worth selling… that is power to the people right there. if we want the story, well get it.

          • georgehants

            You seem to be confusing the effects of corrupt capitalism with science, we I thought where discussing why proven corrupt and incompetent science has allowed Cold Fusion to be censored, debunked and ignored for 25 years.
            that seems a fair point to stick with.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            no… I’m talking about the media… and the explosion of CF becoming mainstream. it will happen when the story of CF becomes one that is worth selling, then it will go into the media.

          • georgehants

            I ask again do you believe that Cold Fusion is science and is for them to publicise?
            Or are you saying science has no responsibility regarding Cold Fusion?

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            ‘Science’ is not an entity, however, ‘scientists’ have been so far completely incompetent at spreading the word about CF

          • georgehants

            Many thanks, Ha, that took a while and I will ask, are you aware of the corruption and “incompetence” in their Research and investigation of the whole Cold Fusion subject for 25 years and do you think that this must be rectified for the future?


            Science is a Verb.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            dude… i know all about it… I’m a postgrad at the moment. though thankfully geology isn’t so bad. I’m a scientist, i believe in science. The problem is that there are too many ‘scientist-ists’, people who believe in scientists.

          • georgehants

            Nicholas, Wonderful subject with so little known about the Earths geology and construction.
            Did you see the report last week hypothesizing on a split molten core?

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            i have not… can you link it for me?

          • georgehants
          • right, many serious people were skeptic on cold fusion consensus, but agree that until there is any tea kettle, it is not worth lose your job.
            ENEL was so in 2004. CEA in 2003. Me until 2011.
            this is why relaying evidences is important.

            note that today the job is done in many academic circles. scientists and engineers are ready to participate. just not enough courageous to make it in public, and needing money.

          • bachcole

            I agree 999%. It seems many people are fixated on finding a bogey man while completely ignoring the simple explanation of human nature and the current climate of disbelief towards anything fringe.

          • sorry george, I disagree it is greed the problem.
            problem as I observe is lack of greed, is people happy in their position in academies, top business, … afraid to change.

          • georgehants

            AlainCo, many thanks, we are missing the point, I am not asking what causes the problems in science only, I am asking how it has reached this horrific mess where a subject as important as Cold Fusion is Debunked, Denied and Hidden by the highest authorities and what must be done to correct things.
            Or are you saying nothing can or should be done to put right this situation, where scientists are not shouting and cheering Mr. Rossi et al for bring a new science to recognition.

          • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

            lol greed is what will spread LENR! tons of money to be made in changing the energy face of the world, whoever gets in first will make hundreds of billions, and those energy sectors that fail to react will be left behind. greed will save the world.

          • worst problem is lack of funding.
            today there is funding available, but missing pipes. regulation is a problem.

          • SG

            Paradoxically, the lack of funding for LENR would not exist if LENR was already widely integrated into our society. Abundance will free up time and resources for ideas that are beyond our present ability to fathom.

          • Alan DeAngelis

            Yeah, Nobel laureates who supported LENR are (and were)
            [Brian Josephson (Julian Schwinger)] ignored.

        • you are right.
          many groups are tempted.
          just silent.

    • Mike Henderson

      I agree. Historically, theory follows observation. For example, quantum theory was needed to explain the previously observed photoelectric effect. Evolution theory was needed to explain fossils. Gravitational mathematics was needed to explain the motion of planets. Valence shells were needed to explain emission and absorption spectra. And so on.

      In the world of atomic energy, fission was needed to explain the observed behavior of radium. Once the theory was in place, it was refined to enable the weaponry that ended WWII and the atomic plants that power (and occasionally pollute) the world.

      When LENRs go mainstream, theoreticians will safely step in to fill in gaps and enable refinements that will blow our minds.

      • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

        I mean we have no idea what is even possible yet. LENR is like computers in their infancy, tubes and pocket calculators the size of a house.

  • Daniel Maris

    No,not similar to the refrigerator. Prior to the arrival of the “fridge” most people did NOT have ice cellars or similar. They used a cool larder – and, in high summer, basically you avoided foods that would go off. So the fridge was coming in to fill a demand that had not previously been met.

    In the colder parts of the planet people already have heating and in most homes in industrialised company people will already have sunk several thousands pounds into central heating (or that will have been done on their behalf if they live in rented properties). So, in those circumstances, people won’t immediately wish to switch to LENR technology if (as is likely) it requires several thousand pounds or dollars’ worth of investment. They will tend to wait until they have exhausted their current investment.

    So, I think the spread will be relatively slow in both the domestic and industrial setting – could take 20 years to replace hydrocarbon based systems.

    • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

      what is similar however, is that both events lots of people can make lots of money… people like making money… people like making money as fast as possible… LENR spread will happen as fast as possible once people are aware of what is possible… and then those asshats that topic banned me on wikipedia will get their just deserts.

      • Omega Z

        aah but people will also have to spend a lot of money & no one likes to do that. They will use the old heating system until it quits & can’t be repaired.

    • Eyedoc

      See my above comment….CHEAP (and even CHEAPER fuel)

    • Omega Z

      I agree Daniel

      There are presently Millions of homes in the U.S. using antiquated heating systems 50+ years old that pump 50% of their heating dollars outside. Even tho there are 95+% high efficiency systems available. Systems that would pay for themselves in about 4 years in fuel savings.

      Many are just now starting to be replaced, but it is primarily because parts for repair can’t be found at any cost. I’ve watched people pay enough in repairs bills over 4 to 5 years to have paid for a new system not counting the fuel savings they’ve missed out on. Crazy but true…

  • Mats002

    I hope you are right, we need fast progress, the world needs a clean energy source, the sooner the better. If LENR will have the same progress as LED I expect all gadgets, home appliances, vehicles, buildings, industries – you name it – will have their own built-in lifelong power source. Say good-bye to all cables, and of course everything is hooked up wireless to the internet. Add to that a new space-age, not temporary this time.

  • Nicholas Chandler-Yates

    no… it will take DECADES to phase out coal completely, and remember, as more coal power plants go offline, coal will become cheaper, allowing the existing plants to stay afloat longer. Slowly more LENR will replace because it will be practically fuelless. eventually coal price will reach rock bottom (= the cost to pull out of the ground and move to the plant), at that point the only coal that will be economical will be coal mines that feed directly to power plants on site, (actually a surprisingly large number of these), eventually as LENR becomes cheaper, even these will become uneconomic.
    Mainly though, this will help countries that are still EXPANDING their energy sector, or don’t have the money to buy coal. China, India, south america, all will be places where new LENR will boom.

  • some serious players no more need that.
    they try to find the pipe from willing investors to scientists and engineers.

    I look for a good finance plumber.

  • Surveilz

    For better or worse, the answer to your questions is human nature. One of my favorite movie adaptations is Jean-Jacques Annaud’s Quest for Fire. It illustrates mankind’s willingness to share, optimize, control, steal and kill for vital, turning point technology from the earliest onset. LENR is comparative and if you consider the time it took for the proliferation of fire, the few decades between P&F and Rossi are nothing short of light-speed. Hardly comparative, but a present day example would be open source software. Engineers, programmers artists and others come together to achieve projects within time frames commercial entities can only dream of. Uncork the cold fusion genie and we’ll see mankind’s true nature, for better and worse.

  • fritz194

    How do you know LENR is not in accordance to the Standard Model ???
    Reliable Source ?
    Which experiment / LENR do you mean ?
    facts ? facts ? facts ?

  • friendlyprogrammer

    We are already seeing oil nations promising oil will never go above $100/barrel again so we will obviously see previously high fuel sources drop in price. I’d bet it will be down to $10 a barrel before they are through, and eventually plastics will be the major consumer of fossil fuels.

    Tech can spread fairly quickly. Can anything spread faster than the smart phone, etc.

    It will be a technology that everyone will want, but if you are wanting a race then you should pick a technology teenagers can afford.

    • Omega Z

      “Can anything spread faster than the smart phone”
      Note when the smart phone became available, the infrastructure was already built. It also come in a sing little packet.

      E-cat reactors are of little use without a wide array of additional components to make use of it. And the costs will be much higher.
      Note of 7 billion people, only about 2 billion have smart phones.

  • Surveilz

    It’s a chicken and egg question. But if the history of discovery is anything to go by, including if Rossi’s discovery is explained, the how has come post discovery more often than not.

  • LuFong

    Well we still don’t know exactly what the E-Cat technology promises. Rossi sold his first 1MW plant in late 2011 and we are still waiting for a public disclosure of a 1MW plant and it’s operational parameters (good or bad) in late 2015, early 2016. And this just the first version of an E-Cat in situ which as quite a few people have conjectured, looks like there is much room for improvement.

    I’m not pointing this out to discredit Rossi as some of you will no doubt claim, it’s just that it’s the only data point we have about how fast it will take to adopt the E-Cat technology. I also feel that Rossi’s go at it alone approach, based on the notion that investment will not occur if the basic process is disclosed, is not the best approach and is holding back development and adoption.

    Imagine if the Internet (as a technology) were not developed by the US government but by a corporation which took out patents and then developed applications or licensed the technology to various entities. Instead the protocols defining the Internet were released in the open. Improvements came fast and furious in the applications and in the basic technology (and supporting technologies as well).

    We need this kind of discovery/disclosure for the basic physical processes underlying the E-Cat which is why I strongly support the actions of groups like MFMP and others in the scientific/engineering community who are working in the open to do so. Once this happens we will see real innovation and progress instead of this inarticulate dribble that comes from Rossi.

  • builditnow

    After LENR hits the mainstream (that could be a while), I’m expecting:
    – Within one month, crude oil drops to below $30 per barrel
    – Within 6 months all oil exploration ceases, US gasoline goes below $2 / gallon. Oil producers pump like crazy in a fight to be the last to pump, crude could go below $10
    – One year later, a billion people are working on LENR research, development and production.
    – One year later, 10,000 competing LENR startups are up and running, making more advanced LENR or ways to utilize it.
    – One year later, Rossi has a house unit on the shelves for heating
    – One year later, jet aircraft engine manufacturers announce major initiative to build LENR jet engines.
    – One year later, 20 new startups spring up for space exploration
    – One year later, NASA announces plans for an LENR rocket engine for super fast long distance space travel. Mars and back in 4 days.
    – Two years later, oil prices start rising back to $40 per barrel because of lowering supply
    – Two years later, LENR chargers for electric cars so you never have to plug in
    – Two years later, Rossi has a house unit out for heating and electricity
    – Three years later, car and truck conversions become available. These will be immediately adopted by the high consumers such as trucking, taxi’s etc.
    – Three years later, all initiative to reduce carbon are dropped as it is considered that LENR will be adopted without government interference.
    – Fours year later, Rolls Royce is testing their LENR jet engine replacement unit for existing jets. Virgin Airlines are the first to order the engines.
    – Four years later, a replacement LENR battery for computers is ready for use, no need to ever plug you laptop or phone in again. Battery lasts 10 years.
    – Four years later, 50% of homes are heated by LENR, 10% are fully off the grid
    – Five years later, LENR military drones say aloft for a year at a time
    – Five years later, 50% of 3rd world villages have a LENR heat and electric unit.
    – Five years later, 75% of homes are heated and cooled by LENR, 30% are fully off the grid
    – 10 years later, the electric grid is dismantled. The wires are taken down for recycling
    – 10 years later, very high speed long distance space craft are being assembled in earth orbit
    – 20 years later, you can take a vacation in an earth orbit hotel for $2000 per day
    – 20 years later, people are living in the asteroid belt, mining asteroids and building all they need.
    – 20 years later, for $1,000,000 you can have a one month space cruise-liner tour of the planets all the way to Pluto and back. Acceleration is a constant 1 G, so it feels like being on earth
    – 25 ….. phew … when do computers become intelligent again ….
    Meantime we wait for the sleepy public to wake up …

    • John Littlemist

      “One year later, billion people are working on LENR research”
      I think you mean one million people… 😉

      • builditnow

        No, a Billion with a B.
        When the Wright Brothers finally broke the media block-aid (the media kept saying heavier than air flight was not possible for several years) by flying over Paris, within one year of flying over Paris it was estimated 7 million were working on powered flight. One year, 7 million, before 1910, mostly still horse drawn carriages in those days.

        A few years later in 1914, a french pilot was doing aerobatic displays in that distant country down south called Australia to huge crowds paying top dollar.

        You think LENR is not bigger than heavier than air flight.
        You think that LENR does not have a much larger impact and much larger usefulness.
        You think we won’t exceed a million working on LENR?

        • Alan DeAngelis

          I remember how quickly the slide rule disappeared when calculators came on the scene. Maybe that’s not the best analogy because we’ll still use oil as a chemical feed stock but the race is on
          and oil’s days are numbered. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slide_rule

  • Ophelia Rump

    There will be a day one event, where the world recognizes the existence of practical LENR already being available to it. On day one a second thing will happen. Those already endowed with LENR will become the anointed few in the market. The anointed corporations will be exempted from a mass extinction process of healthy market competition.

    On day two Every CEO in the world will sit down with their experts to begin the contemplation of how their organization can be among the first to migrate to the new technology in the fastest way possible, or they will risk being left behind in the ruins of the old paradigm.

    In the initial panic, those companies with only an appearance of a LENR future will see stock values rise while the rest of the market falls. If Industrial Heat has the foresight to license it’s technology to these corporations it will make billions of dollars in the first year simply by licensing the rights to survive long enough to compete.

  • bfast

    Once LENR gets out the door, its adoption speed will be breathtaking, though from those of us on the inside, it’ll seem like its going at a snail’s pace. That said, Pons and Fleischmann formally discovered this effect back in 1989. It has taken over 25 years to get out the door. I doubt if this is any kind of record.

    However, there will still be a lingering disbelief that will slow down the pace at which people believe that the new is coming. This disbelief will allow car companies to continue to sell gasoline driven vehicles even after LENR vehicles are on the road. (I don’t know about you, but I ain’t going to buy a brand new gas guzzler once LENR is public.)

  • Eyedoc

    But you forget that LOW COST mass production is IH/Rossi’s ace, because it will immediately be reverse engineered. So it will be cheap 🙂

  • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

    Louis Pasteur (the inventor of pasteurization and vaccination, amongst the rest) was ridiculed and insulted for his experiments by the medical world:

    “I am afraid that the experiments you quote, M.Pasteur, will turn against you. The world into which you wish to take us is really too fantastic.”
    La Presse, 1860

    Even against the evidence, some in the medical world in his time continued to disbelieve his experiments.


  • the error is to imagine that it is greed that cause problems…
    it is comfort and fear of change.
    people knowing LENR is real could make trillion, but doing so they would have to change their business. It is tiring and risky…
    for the boss of exxon or OPEC it is better to keep status quo than dump his assets and buy shares in all LENr startups for a billion.

  • in Taleb’s book I’ve learnd what seems to be good rules for predicting future technology

    1- the lindy effect : things that have existed long, have good chance to live still as long… recent invention are easily replaced… shoes will stay like shoes fro thousands years, but keyboard will disappear soon…
    2- the negative law : you can only predict that things will disappear from existing technology… smoke will disappear. wires will disappear. refueling will disappear. constraints will disappear…

    for the rest any prediction is vain.

    another rules I’ve heard is that it is impossible to predict reliably what and when.

    you can say LENR will make a breakthrough, but not how fast.

    you can say that we are at the edge of a revolution in the 5 next years, but impossible to know what will be revolutionized.
    heating, cooking, planes, cars, IT, biotech, cancer, aids, immunization, farming, shrimp farming…

    • Mark

      Yeah, there might be a few people who can accurately predict the future…sometimes…but most can’t most of the time.

    • Omega Z

      It’s not what & when someone wants, but when the money, need & resources are available. This technology will not spread faster then the economy can afford.

      Markets also fluctuate by circumstance. When I pay $5 a gallon for gas & I have the financial means, I’m looking at buying an economy car.

      If that gallon of gas drops to a dollar due to outside influence(Like E-cat), I am just looking for a car & then on;y if I need it.

  • georgehants

    Coffeeguyzz, of course history can teach us much but we first have to want to learn.
    I must regrettably I think, come to the conclusion that open-minded investigation into every area of our reality, driven solely by a desire to progress is at present far out of reach.
    As you say, too many temptations for any change soon in human philosophy, I think.
    History can be a fairly calm and fulfilling subject as one does not have the frustrations of the present and future to contend with, only checking that the history is accurate, as the same corruption as I am sure you know is at work even there, but I, even with history, especially the history of science get hot to see the same attitudes and ego’s at work today that led to the destroying of careers and even suicides in past times.
    Best wishes to you, I shall rest from these pages for a while and just observe tomorrows history being made.

  • Donk970

    IMO this will stay in the lab until a critical point where the forces arrayed against market entry are overcome. Those forces include existing energy companies putting pressure on government to prevent entry into the energy market; overzealous regulators; ignorance etc.

    Of these ignorance is the key. Unfortunately the ignorance of the public will be exploited by corporations with big advertising campaigns that vilify the new technology.

    • GreenWin

      If you follow the thread with new photos of 1MW E-Cat you’ll realize it’s already out of the lab. That’s the whole purpose of IH investment.

  • Axil Axil

    The answer to this speed of adoption question is found in the details.

    From the very beginning, Rossi has had real and long standing problems with controlling his reaction, so he has been forced into a complex design plan that has enabled him to make reactor development progress. That path involves a (spaghetti code like) low power density reactor design solution that greatly increases the complexity and high initial cost on energy investment of his reactor design.

    A complex design is far less adoptable than is a simple design. This complex design will have a high rate of failure, need expertly trained maintenance personnel, be inordinately expensive to manufacture and to operate.

    A simple and well controlled LENR reactor is possible to design and build. Such a reactor prototype has been produced by DGT by using electric arc stimulation of the LENR reaction.

    The speed of adoption is directly related to the complexity of the design of the reactor. If someone can develop a simple LENR reactor that features high power density, and design simplicity the speed of that reactors adoption will be dazzling. The adoption of the complex Rossi design will be greatly impeded especially in the technically unsophisticated third world where LENR based energy is needed the most. Rossi’s current design is a first world design that needs the energy of this reactor the least.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    Amoco (the oil company) was able to replicate F&P experiment in 1989 and were about to pour a lot of money into researching it but I think they got cold feet when the DOE’s negative report came out. So, maybe the oil companies will be among the first to jump into LENR.

    • Alan DeAngelis

      And it’s not only the energy aspect of LENR. Let’s not forget that Mitsubishi can make platinum from tungsten!

    • Axil Axil

      Oil companies have invested in research to determine why low temperature hydrogen based product refining processes would sometimes burnup their equipment. They found that iron oxide micro dust would sometimes produce extreme catalyzer like unexplained over heating when small amounts of iron dust was present. They put out recommendations to keep hydrogen based processes dust free.

      • Alan DeAngelis

        Yeah, I don’t think the oil companies (and the Russians) have been taken by surprise. I’m sure they’ve been keeping an eye on their competition since F&P.

  • pg

    electric engine with 400 miles range . Lenr electricity production. bye bye oil. Hello new world.
    hello countries that enforce the law, are transparent and have no corruption. ( North Europe, Australia) Goodbye dictatorships and oil/gas dependent countries.

  • EEStorFanFibb

    I see chatter here about LENR powered cars. It’s a neat idea in theory to have a micro LENR electricity generator/range extender/on-board battery replenisher system but by the time* LENR is deemed safe enough to be put in commercial vehicles, batteries will be so cheap, powerful (energy dense), quick to charge and light we won’t need much in the way of range extending.

    Meanwhile self driving cars and public transit improvements will slash the ownership of personal vehicles. Ride sharing services will proliferate.

    Then there is the simple fact that there is a vast ocean of other applications for LENR – the build out in these non-transportation areas can go on for decades without satisfying demand. So why waste LENR devices on light duty passenger vehicles when basic electric vehicle technology will destroy the ICE anyway? Doesn’t make sense to me.

    I’d much rather see huge LENR heated vegetable farm greenhouses in the Arctic.

    *at least 15-20 years away.

    • Axil Axil

      I believe that it is possible to build a high power (100 Kilowatts) bread box sized thermoelectric generator bases on the flow of lithium ions produced by the heat of the LENR reaction within a heat pipe based design that could provide electric power to transportation in a vapor state self sustaining LENR generator without any moving parts except the flow of lithium vapor in a closed circuit.

      For inspiration see




      Is there any interest in discussing this idea?

      I would like to get this concept protected under the open source umbrella.

  • greggoble

    Absolutely correct,

    Conversion to LENRgy has an economic imperative as the driving factor. If you do not quickly adapt and convert you might just loose your competitive edge.

    The Black Rock Group 2012 report bears analyzing, “We are closely following start-ups experimenting with new technologies such as low-energy nuclear reaction and fusion. If successful, these efforts could completely change the current status quo and hurt traditional energy producers. It is worth watching this space. People tend to overestimate what can be done in a year, but underestimate what can happen in a decade.”

    My read on that is this:

    “Start up is slower than estimated… takeover will be quicker than estimated.”

    • Mike Ivanov

      Looking at recent photos of Rossi’s 1Mv container – I think what adoption question have nothing to do with technology at all. Any Indian workshop will be able to assembly such machines from Chinese spare parts in one year. This not a super-duper ITER reactor – billions of dollars, hundreds of tons of expensive materials, temperature of Sun inside, and no useful output so far…

  • Mike Ivanov

    Lets talk about adoption. Based on what we saw in recent times, we may expect a paradoxical results. For example, cellular networks and home internet are not that advanced in USA and Canada comparing with some “3rd world” countries. Main reasons are over regulated market, old corporations who had huge investments in land lines, high taxation, etc.
    Imagine what Mr. Rossi come to the market with ready-to use home heating unit with COP 7 or 8. Is the US or Canadian market of heating appliances will open doors wide for him? I really doubt so. It will take years to get an approvals, licenses, penetrate to distribution network, etc. Look what happen with Tesla cars – auto dealers have real battle against it.
    Plus, huge “clean energy” lobbyists who had supported solar, wave, wind systems, fidgeted for grants, licenses, subsidies – what all of them will do? They will use their political power to survive.
    My bottom line – I would not be too surprised to see wide adoptions in countries like China, India, Bangladesh, etc, who desperately needs energy and do not have all these organized opponents.

  • Omega Z

    Steve W
    As we are speculating & I’m getting a better Idea where your coming from-Some food for thought-
    In response from another thread. I have also questioned the need for additional heating when the reactor already produces more heat then the resistors can supply. This being the case, it should be self sustaining. It appears not.

    However, if those resistor wires are actually arranged as a magnetic coil generating a strong magnetic field(Reason enough for Rossi not to let them see the internals.), and the heat is just a residual effect. MRI’s produce a lot of heat & use helium to cool the electromagnetic coils.

    Rossi has 3 wires. From others input, it sounds as only 2 are powered at any given time. This could be shifting the polarity of the magnetic coil.

    As to hot spots, Axil has discussed using a heat pipe. Over my head, tho I grasp the concept is to disperse heat more evenly. That of which I have read about use vaporized metal to transfer heat equally & near instantly. Lithium is a metal & when the Hot cat reaches a high enough temp, it vaporizes, so it may already be a part of equalizing hot spots along with being involved with the reactions.

    Note: The Original Lt E-cat had 2 sets of heaters.(?) I’ve thought 1 may be of RF generation. There are multiple ways to stimulate the effect.

    According to Rossi, the Lugano reactor incorporated the Mouse/Cat configuration, But due to it being in the continuous on state, it was not implemented. Rossi has stated that all E-cats will incorporate the Mouse/Cat configuration. As the pilot plant was built after this statement, I assume the Lt pilot plant employes this technology.

    • SteveW

      Before the Parkhomov replication, I too had the same opinion, being that, the coil was needed for these reactions and imparted much more than just heat- such as a special wave-form magnetic field. However, after Parkhomov, I began looking at things differently. If Parkhomov could get a reaction with such a crude device, a special magnetic wave-form was obviously not needed since his crude device was not providing one. Sure, the heating coil could be providing a magnetic field but that could be imparted in other ways with much less energy expenditure.

      I looked at this problem from the perspective of the reactant fuel inside the reactor tube. Basically, everything happens inside the reactant tube. All you really have to do is replicate the environment inside the reactant fuel tube. Another premise of may assumptions was that several factors contribute to the reactions. The heat of the reactant fuel seems to be the most important. I thought if I could do a better job maintaining the correct operating temperature and run the reactor close to a runaway temperature without having to worry about runaway, I could kinda skimp on other factors such as the magnetic field and still get a good enough reaction. All I needed was a good enough reaction since my reactor does not use any electric resistor heating, the COP would be very high. The reactor would be very cheap and simple and robust since you could pack fuel rods into the reactor vessel without all the special controls and plumbing for each little reactor tube such as in Rossi’s design.

      In my opinion, the key to a practical reactor is to provide a medium to submerge the reactor tube into of the same temperature range as the operating temperature of the reactant fuel and a reactor tube made from a material which is a high heat conductor. Heat from the reactant fuel would quickly diffuse through the reactor tube shell and into the medium surrounding the reactant tubes or as I call them fuel rods. When a coolant of a lower temperature than the reactant fuels operating temperature is used, you have problem with control and have to run the reactor conservatively and end up with a low COP. Agitation of the medium surrounding the fuel rods is also important to provide an even temperature throughout the reactor vessel which diffuse directly into the reactant fuel.

  • Omega Z

    I agree, If it were easy, we would have had it decades ago.

    Rossi merely makes it look easy. He shows us his successes. He has only on occasion told us of his failed devices & people do not hear. He would have to repeat it & show pictures daily before people would get it. Even then some would call it simple & easy.

  • Omega Z

    It will be priced just cheap enough to be cheaper then your current heating system. That’s how new products work. There will be billions in investments to be made/recovered & the intent is to make that up as early as possible.

    This cost is always paid by the 1st adopters. With the present IH/Rossi path, That be business.

  • Omega Z

    Much of the Standard Model isn’t well understood or complete.
    Which is why I question those who always claim that something goes against the Standard Model.

    How do they know? Until it is completely understood and explained, They don’t know.

  • Mike Ivanov

    I would not call them “conspiracies”. Just slowness, bureaucracy, etc. Parkinson’s laws describes them well for many years already.
    Also, it looks like what such things as small groups of smart decision makers who can take proper directions do not exist in politic domain anymore. They still can be in corporations, but not in political business. It means what governments are functioning now as stupid Markov chain automates. European Union gov is a nice example of that.
    And it means what any big changes would be blocked by such automates until the core logic will fail completely.

  • builditnow

    Do you think there were 7 million “spare” trained engineers of any sort in 1910?
    How many trained aero engineers were there in 1910?
    Heavier than air flight sparked the imagination and involved a lot more people than just the existing trained engineers to get involved.
    Farmers made planes, all sorts of people got involved.
    A couple of bicycle mechanics made the first successful plane.

    You don’t think LENR is at least as exciting as heavier than air flight?
    You don’t think young kids will get excited about it?
    You don’t think retired people will get excited about it?

    You see, once the public finally wakes up to the possibilities, they will, so to speak, “go nuts” about LENR.
    Right now, they are all lulled into sleep by football, TV, video games, a shut down media and a shut down science media, etc. They go online to check and wikipedia tells them LENR / Cold Fusion is junk science, so they go back to sleep. They say to themselves, “this is too good to be true, time for a nap”.

    I agree, if the general public never wakes up, LENR could go nowhere.
    But, what if they do wake up?
    I’m talking about when the general public wakes up.
    A billion is easily possible, when and if they wake up.

  • Albert D. Kallal

    Once the jump from the “lab” or testing occurs, I much agree that the speed of adoption of this technology could be VERY rapid.

    I recall when the DVD came out, it was the FASTEST adopted product in consumer history.

    I much think that LENR devices could see adopting rates higher and faster then that of say digital cameras.

    Recall in 2001, digital cameras were really cool, very pricy, and much a status symbol. By 2008, they had already flooded the market! The adoption of digital cameras was AMAZING and took really LESS then 10 years from WHEN affordable units reached the marketplace.

    As pointed out, it really comes down to a correctly packaged LENR device that can be sold in large numbers. Keep in mind this may not be so easy! Today we can jump on a plane and fly to far away places with amazing ease.

    However we don’t have practical flying cars. There is the possibly that controlling LENR in a useful commercial fashion may NOT be easy! This will “hinder” a very widespread and easy adoption of this technology. We don’t have that “easy” control system and knowledge of LENR as of yet.

    One should assume that these issues of “controlling” LENR reactions will be solved.

    However, keep in mind that mankind today can build planes that fly. However we do NOT have practical flying cars. So let’s hope LENR falls into the practical flying concept, and not that of flying cars!

    ****IF**** control” issues of LENR are solved, then the mass huge adopting of LENR will occur at BLISTERING rates. However, until such time this controlling issue is “solved”, then LENR WILL remain relegated to the lab and JUST a wee bit beyond the test stage like Rossi is at now.

    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada
    [email protected]

  • atlantis71

    citing from a report available online “The scope for unprecedented growth rates of a breakthrough energy technology (BET) might be based on the fact that the so-called ‘built-environment’ in mature industrial societies is
    inherently different or increasingly becoming so from that of societies that
    saw the rise of hydrocarbons and even the more recent deployment of renewable
    energy technologies such as wind and PV. The built-environment
    is not only made of the technological infrastructure and of the economic system,
    but also of the general interests and values of the society, the policy
    imperatives of the government, the ability to produce innovation, etc. Mature
    or post-industrial societies are becoming increasingly different socially, economically, and technologically from what they
    were before the IT revolution. This could well mean that the speed at which a BET could progress from prototype
    to market diffusion might be unprecedented in the history of energy
    technologies. As a result, a widespread commercialization of a transformational
    technology may not take decades as it took to previous energy technologies. In
    other words, the market diffusion of breakthrough energy technologies in the 21st
    century cannot be projected by looking at the current and past energy technology
    status quo.” You can find the report here