Thanks to Sanjeev for finding an interesting document published by the Norwegian Think Tank Om Civita — which describes itself as a “politically independent think tank whose work will contribute to increased understanding and support for liberal values and solutions”.
The report was published on June 23, 2015 with the title “LENR – A new, inexpensive and pollution-free energy?” It looks at the topic of LENR from a probablity perspective, trying to evaluate the probability of first, whether LENR is a real and commercially viable phenomonen, and if so, what its impact might be on the global and Norwegian economies, and on the environment.
The report looks at the history of cold fusion, current activity in the LENR field, and at some of the companies involved in R&D. It also tries to project the possible future impact based on research that has been done in other fields, such as the impact of the cost of oil on the world economy. The report does not come to any firm conclusion, but does pose some possible scenarios that could result from commercially available LENR. And it does recommend that the topic be monitored at high levels in government. Here’s an excerpt from the report:
The crucial question is of course: Will any of the projects succeed? The answer can be not determined with certainty by outsiders today. But it may be useful to turn to this issue: Can success be excluded? It is justified to doubt the companies’ optimistic statements, but based on the inspection and tests that have been reported by independent researchers success cannot be excluded. And if development were to succeed, even with lower profitability than the companies foreshadows, margins relative to the capabilities of today’s energy supply are so large that one can see the outlines of a real energy revolution. It would then be positive for the global environment and for energy consumers in both rich and poor countries. But LENR-based energy could be dramatically negative for Norway’s energy-based economy. Effects could – potentially – be so extensive that even a low probability that firms succeed indicate that development should be followed by public authorities. The follow-up must ensure a professionally qualified assessment and information leading activity in the field of scientific results and especially the industry-oriented projects.
The report does note that success for LENR could be particularly impactful on Norway, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production. This is not the first time we have seen serious Norwegians looking closely at LENR.
The full document (in Norwegian) can be downloaded Civita note here:
A Google translated PDF of the text (not the images) is here.