History Being Made As We Speak?

We’re in a strange situation. In some ways Andrea Rossi is hiding in plain sight. He’s telling us a lot of what he’s doing, without fear of getting too much attention, because very few people with influence believe what he says.

Let’s take this quote by Andrea Rossi on the Journal of Nuclear Physics today for example.

“The 1 MW E-Cat is an industrial plant, already in operation in the factory of a Customer and producing energy for an industrial activity, not for laboratory R&D: this, in itself, is an important achievement, because it is the first time in History that a plant with this kind of technology is put at work in a productive concern.”

Speaking for myself, I don’t doubt what he’s saying. But setting aside what Andrea Rossi says, this information has basically been confirmed. The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten has reported that it has received independent confirmation from someone who has personally been at the plant that it is working. There have been other such reports from Mats Lewan and Torkel Nyberg (possibly getting their information from the same source). So it does seem to be the case that the E-Cat plant is doing its job somewhere in the United States.

I see this a tremendous milestone, and it should be highly beneficial for the company cutting its fuel bills. However for those who want to see viable LENR in the marketplace, we have to wait for out-in-the-open on-the-record confirmation of the performance of the plant, and we won’t see that until the test is over.

So we’re kind of in a strange state of limbo at the moment. A huge majority of the world’s population know nothing about this technology, and of those who have heard about it only a small minority are taking it seriously. I reckon only a relatively few people seriously believe what Rossi reports. Until the plant is unveiled I don’t think that will change too much.

BTW, by my calculations, Friday of this week should be the half-way point of the 350 day test of the 1 MW plant.

  • BillH

    What we really need to see is an independent customer saying that they’ve saved 50% on their energy bills and that they have had long periods of uninterrupted production. IH need to say that so far testing is going well and the customer is happy. This mysterious unnamed independent person who has seen the plant in action needs to tell us exactly what he has seen that makes him believe the plant is running efficiently.

    • ecatworld

      From the way these people operate, I don’t expect any comment (other than Rossi’s typical remarks) from insiders until the testing is over, so I think we will be basically in a holding pattern until the test is finished.

      • Ged

        Ah, our good friend the NDA.

        • Hi all

          In reply to GED

          Actually just good business sense. Everyday Industrial Heat LLC can research design, build, plan and prepare, is just a 1/4 of a day they will be ahead of competitors who will. Reverse engineer the E-Cat in short order. At that point it is your strategy for market position that protects you investment. Consider Rossi has invested most of his second fortune in E-Cat and the other investors, have invested their money. And that is before we consider the sweat equity Rossi in particular has invested.

          It is those strategic market positions that will protect their investment. It is forst of all about controlling the market. First of all with technological edge. Then they will be looking to set up laws to prevent lower cost market entrants (. They will look to control the so called three Ps: The Products both the reactors and the services needed to operate and run them, from materials and parts to training and certification. The People who work in the business, those with the research knowledge, those with the experience and the skils, all to be certified and trained and vetted. The Processes, including all tools, machines and materials which the people use to make and maintain the reactors and anything attached to them.

          They will seek to make them more complex and turn into the three Ss:
          The Solutions that are formed when we multiple derived products are put together in order to satisfy higher numbers of more complex customers. The Societies and social systems that will occur when people get together to use LENR products, hence all the interest in the LENR “Ecosystem” an understanding of the Systems that are created and formed by multiple interlinked processes, so that they can control and navigate at least their own and ideally the environment in which the business operates.

          The time that the testing takes, will be being used by what will probably be and increasingly larger back-room staff of lawyers and business managers, writing the manuals, instruction booklets tests and for all the above.

          Have you seen the size of a large companies back-office? Do you not think that IH will inevitably end up with a corporate office of similar size to say Google? Do you really think they spend all that money on those back office staff for nothing?

          I have barely grazed what a major business this will create.

          So everyday they can prepare the above and much much more besides is and advantage to them.


          They are in a market. And they have competitors. About a week ago a contact let me know one of Rossi’s competitors is looking to announce a market product in October. A couple of days later Rossi announced that he could also have product to market as early as October, I do not know if Rossi was reacting to the same news but I found it odd, that Rossi announced just two days after.

          To me it seems either could be just a spoiling announcement, but Rossi’s competitors so know one thing. Rossi has schedule for the end of testing. If they want to obtain key first announcement market dominance then they have to be to market before Rossi in February 2016. An October announcement would give them that position and several clear months to gain control of aspects both of the market and its regulatory framework. I am sure Darden at the very least is aware of this.

          Kind Regards walker

          • artefact

            Patrick Ellul
            August 12th, 2015 at 6:15 PM
            Dear Andrea,
            Regarding the “something else” that you mention that E-CatX has over the other cats:
            Does it make it easier 1) to manufacture? 2) to certify? 3) to protect its IP?
            Is that why it makes you more optimistic about the time line for it going on shelves? F9 of course.
            Warm regards,

            Andrea Rossi
            August 12th, 2015 at 8:41 PM
            Patrick Ellul:
            I would say all the three. F9 of course.
            Warm Regards,

          • Gerrit

            What history has been made during the last year ?

            What do we have more today, that we didn’t have last year ?

            The only significant achievement I can think of is the start of Tohoku LENR institute, but I am probably be missing something.

          • There is also Airbus Innovation commitment to support LENRG.

            When was E-cat Lugano test published , less than 1y?

          • Gerrit

            You are right, Lugano was October 2014.

            Unfortunately we haven’t heard much from the authors since, hopefully they are seeing some progress in their work.

          • Bernie Koppenhofer

            Right, we have not heard from any important LENR players for a long time, like Storms, Duncan, McKubre, Hagelstein and the Lugano scientists.

          • radvar

            It’s all gotten too valuable now; no one wants to give away anything they might be able to monetize.

          • in fact no.

            Journalist where at Oxford and they heard things tha could embarrass politician.
            they heard things that could both support LENR or embarass important people.
            same in milan or in Neuchatel, or in padua…

            don’t ask why nobody say LENR is good science, but ask why nobody say a dozen of top company executiv, agencies, universities, support and finance what is supposed to be scam and pseudo science.

            they were there and they did not say anything..

            if the Wright Bro where flying in their small city, like in 1900 the media wil receive reports from their journalist and will dump the tape.

            only small blog would talk of it.

        • wpj

          I was referring to update #22 of the “plant watch” thread plus that 7Kw comment. As you say, nothing directly from the man.

    • mcloki

      Never happen. Why tell your competition you’re going to eat his lunch.

  • mcloki

    The more important question is. How can we profit from this historical event? It’s one thing to know that Microsoft or Apple will change the world. It’s better if we bought stock early. Hey I’m all for helping the world and all, but it’d be nice doing it from the front seat of a Bentley.

    • Roland

      The first opportunity to directly profit from LENR occurred with the release of the Lugano Report; anyone that shorted oil & the related public companies has done very well.

      This will be the template for near term profits from LENR; figure out who loses and go short.

      The second phase will centre around industrial concerns who will get direct orders to manufacture Ecat components; if any of the smaller enterprises are publicly traded go long.

      The third phase will centre around first movers that will gain competitive advantage through adopting the Ecat; go long on the early adopters go short on their lagging competitors.

      The fourth phase will centre around business that conceptualize entirely new enterprises based on the Ecat; put on your thinking cap as this is going to be huge…

    • purplepartyguy

      I see a path to “profit, whatever that means to each person, is to imagine how you can apply this technology to a field of your expertise. Do you work in aerospace, automotive, manufacturing etc… I work in the water and wastewater industry and I try and come up with ways to replace energy intensive processes with the ecat. Even more imaginative is to flip the current process upside down and design systems that use limitless energy to replace current treatment processes. We build everything and perform most processes with an design philosophy to energy savings. Cars are aerodynamic and light weight to save fuel as an example, we insulate our houses for the same reason. Energy scarcity is a conerstone of the world economy and this shift will be profound. The most exciting ideas will be the ones that are totally unthinkable with todays technology…

  • Barbierir

    It is a very odd situation but I feel privileged that I have been able to follow it since 2011. I hope that when the test ends next spring we’ll get the due reward for our patience.

    • Gerard McEk

      Well, I had hoped for some more specific information, but AR kept the details wisely to himself. I hope he will reveal more later and before February next year. Lately we do not hear so often that it is in SSM. Maybe things go less well?

      Never the less he is right. He is making history by supplying nuclear heat to a conventional plant. As long as the COP is above 4 it will be very profitable.
      And also: the Hot cat (M.me Curie, now E-cat X) is ‘promising’, as AR says…. Keep on hoping!

      • Alan DeAngelis

        A working megawatt plant is only part of it. History will show us that there is still a big fight ahead.


        • Private Citizen

          Assuming Rossi’s strategy is to produce so many units at so low a cost that no rival can gain market share, let’s ask:

          1. How many units would constitute an insurmountable initial production?

          2. What is the cost per unit to produce, including capitalizing the factories?

          It Rossi produces 1,000,000 units at $1,000 ea he will need $1 billion in investment capital. Where is he getting $1 billion? IH raised about $11 million in 2015 for its entire range of activities and commitments.

          If he produces only 1,000 units, that is probably not an insurmountable market penetration.

          Perhaps there is a sweet spot somewhere between, but the lower his production, the lower his chance of cornering the market and the higher the per-unit cost to manufacture. Will 10,000 units corner the market? 100,000? Look how much Elon Musk is putting into battery development ($5 billion): that is a commitment to market share.

          There, gang, is some metaphysical and quantitative speculation re numerous speculative angels dancing on the head of a speculative pin.

          • Albert D. Kallal

            You have a good point. Rossi has stated they plan to sell
            the power first. So that strategy of selling lots of units still exists, but it
            going to take VERY LARGE amounts of capital and investment. That capital does
            NOT yet exist for LENR. So no question Rossi wants to adopt large scale manufacturing,
            but baby steps must occur first. And while much of the manufacturing can be
            outsourced, large capital outlays will still be required.

            The money and investment for LENR simply does not exist
            at this point in time. Again: the money and investment for LENR does not exist
            right now.

            Large scale manufacture will take 10’s of millions of dollars
            if not more. The “step” of Rossi selling power no doubt will be the first step
            (and this has not yet occurred). Once plants are selling power, then the next
            step of large scale manufacturing can occur, but not before.

            Perhaps a large industrial player could appear on the scene,
            but again this will not occur without capital investments. We thus have to wait
            for large scale investment.

            Rossi has time on his side. Like Apple with their phones
            (or tablets), the FIRST mover advantage is huge in the market place.

            Chrysler Canada was first out the door with their
            Mini-Van. In fact for the past 22 years, they held the #1 spot in Canada. While
            competition been fierce for mini-vans, the “first mover” advantage is often
            what we call a “real estate” grab in the technology industry. Once you “grab”
            that land, then it is rather hard to move one off that space.

            Apple did the same with smartphones. The cell phone
            market was HYPER competitive. Yet Apple walked right into the market with a
            first mover product (the tough phone with software).

            And today there are several companies producing better
            tablets then Apple, but Apple “grabbed” that market first – so other players
            have to pick up the left overs.

            And same goes for Windows – they grabbed that marketplace
            first. So while great desktops are made by say Apple or even free Linux ones, Microsoft
            remains a leader in that market spot. However Microsoft in the phone market is
            doing poorly despite a great phone product (no first mover advantage).

            Rossi can do much the same in regards to LENR. Whoever
            gets a mass produced LENR product into the marketplace will enjoy that “first
            mover” advantage for many years to come – even with STIFF competition. And like
            ink jet printers, you have to purchase re-fills. So why change over from a
            Rossi e-cat you have and purchase a General Electric one? (you have no reason to

            Regardless, we are still a good number of years away from
            mass produced LENR products. The niche market of Rossi selling the energy
            product (as opposed to selling LENR devices) is the first step Rossi will have
            to take. This should then in turn build up momentum and allow one to garner
            investment dollars.

            You can’t raise money for LENR right now because for most
            if not all of the investment community does not believe in LENR.

            So it really simple that the money for mass produced LENR
            products does not exist. And yes, this is somewhat of a chicken and egg issue!

            Albert D. Kallal
            Edmonton, Alberta Canada

          • “You can’t raise money for LENR right now because for most if not all of the investment community does not believe in LENR.”

            situation is worse.
            some investor and executives may be aware of LENR, but they know it will not be agreed by their board, their advisors, their control authorities.

            I’ve seen similar problem with restaurant discrimination against disabled.
            Some restaurant rejected disabled people and when asked why, they did not say they disregarded the disabled people, but that it was frightening their clients…

            this is very common.

            in some part of Africa, excision is very common and the strange fact is that the huge majority of men and women, of mothers and fathers, of wife and husband’s, dislike this practice and would love to stop it…
            but they are all convinced that other will force them to do it, that not enforcing the rule will cause problems.

            I could call that second degree stupidity…
            “I’m not stupid, but I have to conform with mainstream stupidity”

          • we want LENR Fusione Fredda

            …excision…and the horrific practice of FGM

          • GreenWin

            This may explain some of what you ask. The program running this sim does not allow certain actions. http://www.theglimpse.com/are-we-living-inside-a-holographic-universe

      • artefact

        Franz Von Goetz
        August 12th, 2015 at 3:53 PM
        Dr Andrea Rossi:
        I am following your work since your first steps with Prof. Sergio Focardi and it seems to me that at last you arrived to a breakthrough: can you confirm that we should have a consolidated 1 MW plant by the beginning of 2016 and a new Hot Cat X off the shelf by the end of 2016? Is this scheduling realistic?
        Franz Von Goetz

        Andrea Rossi
        August 12th, 2015 at 5:28 PM
        Franz Von Goetz:
        If the tests on course will have positive results yes, your forecast is realistic.
        Warm Regards,

        • kenko1

          History… is always being made as we speak! LOL

          It was a dark and stormy night……..

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    I do not understand the reason for the length of the current
    one year test. There is very little more
    that can be learned about the plant after say 6 months. Every day this
    technology is not implemented is critical.

    • AdrianAshfield

      How long the fuel lasts before it must be changed is critical.
      With something new there are often unexpected problems. For commercial use, with a warranty, better safe than sorry.

      • Uncle Bob

        But this is the original E-cat reactor. All the operating characteristics for these reactors have been known for years and previously tested and reported for the 1MW plant previously sold to the secret military customer. We were told itwas performing to specifications, and the specifications were for a COP of 6.
        The differences in the latest 1MW plant are mainly in the control system.
        One would imagine that with the more sophisticated control systems, the COP would be even higher.

        It’s hard to understand why there are no reports on what the COP has been for the last six months.
        Some might conclude from this that either the COP falls far short of the previously claimed figure of 6, or that it is not operating at all.

        • wpj

          Strange, as there have been multiple reports on the COP for this plant ranging from 20 to 140 depending on the SSM duration.

          Additionally, this is not the same as the original as it is 4 x 250 not 106 x 10

          • rossi and jonp are not the best sources at all as you say, but there are others sources on many subjects.

            about E-cat business, Tom darden public appearance say more than Rossi.
            Mats Lewan have also done some work of inquiry to confirm and correct Rossi.

            Anyway on E-cat there is not so much clear data, but the commitment of Tom darden, Elforsk, who have insider information, make it clear it is credible project in process.

            Brillouin have better staff, but less reference…

            anyway what is happening is not extraordinary as LENR is well documented in science.

            the reason of skeptic skepticism is the desperate belief LENR does not exist.
            remove them this mythology, and Rossi is just the boss of a hightech startup funded by a US tycoon…

            ask to a skeptic if he accept LENR is a real phenomenon , or not :

            if not, laugh. and roll on the floor.

            if yes, ask them why they are not excited about that physics revolution, and possible applications through engineering, one day ?

            and then laugh and roll on the floor.

            now, E-cat is not the only fish in the sea, it is too late to imagine it is fake, but it can simply be unreliable and too expensive…

      • Bernie Koppenhofer

        You might be right if it is a new toaster being developed, but this is technology the world needs desperately

    • rocky172534

      he needs absolute certainty that it works reliably or the oligarchs( who apparently put money above their own childrens future)will kill it ,especially through the wholly owned media.

  • Jarea1

    what scare me is that all of us have followed the story and we still dont have a real LENR device that we can see and touch. All the hopes and promises come from third persons, but direct confirmation from a product and mass media is not there. For me is scary and at the same time, amazing because i am confident in LENR, besides i don´t understand why the mass media still ignore LENR.
    On the other hand, i always have the fear it Is like when the companies tries to sell you something for the next year and then it never comes. I just hope we find an end at the end of this 1MW test. It has been a long way since 2008.

  • Bob

    “We’re in a strange situation……”
    What is REALLY strange in today’s world (actually very sad) is that there probably is 20 reports in main media about “how little Kim Kardashian wore today” or “Did Ben Afleck cheat with his nanny” or “What did Bruce Jenner aka Caitlyn do today!” but…… NO mention of LENR or the impact this 1mw test could have. We hear about a dozen minor (and some very stupid if I may say) ideas about green technologies. Not that they are all bad, but some really stretch the envelope. Yet not a word on LENR / Cold Fusion, even after reports from a number of unrelated organizations from different countries reporting very positive results.
    Yes, we really are in a strange situation! Most of the world would rather know what Jennifer Aniston’s wedding dress looked like rather than the status of a revolutionary energy source.
    Oh by the way…. the Manhatten Project was top secret. Extremely so… Yet when president Truman met with Stalin before dropping the bomb on Japan, Truman informed Stalin that the US had this new super weapon. Stalin, looking quite bored, stated he already knew about it and probably actually new as much if not more than Truman did! While I do not place LENR quite on the same level as the A bomb (yet anyway) it would be one of the top technological events this century. How is it that it is not classified as top secret, but fewer people probably are aware of it than was of the Manhatten Project. Heck, we cannot even find out who or where the 1 mw customer is! That is really hard to believe! It surely could not be that tightly kept! 😉

    • LilyLover

      Indulgence in short-term parasitism is the goal of today’s society. Hence out of sight – out of mind. We need distractions to stay in the focus, like you mentioned above, lest the children start asking questions about good vs bad and why we still prefer Imperial system when the original Imperialists switched to SI. Why? To foster the lack of competence. Incompetent kids are more willing to be parasite protectors as long as the wars are glorified with the aid of Hollywood. Truth means hard work. Looting means instant gain at the expense of harsh life for “Future” generations. Call it QE; call it petrodollar; call it private Fed; call it jingoism; call it spreading the democracy – it’s all the geopolitical game. Grass photosynthesizes; cattle grazes. Trees produce; people consume. “Advanced”-in-weaponary-Countries bully five lunches; others try to hide their lunch.
      Hence we primarily need morality reform. First it begins with calling a spade a spade. Learning grammar and switching to SI units.

    • BroKeeper

      LENR will save at least equal number of lives as were lost in Japan by 2025. The nuclear redemption.

      • GreenWin

        To amuse our T-Roll?

      • radvar

        Too hard

    • GreenWin

      ” Most of the world would rather know what Jennifer Aniston’s wedding
      dress looked like rather than the status of a revolutionary energy

      You assume the programmed editors of our “news” represent the actual interests of human beings. We think not. It should be apparent by now that “mainstream media” is little more than a narrowed conduit to a compartmental agenda. The kool part is your a part of it all Bob!

      However, fear not. Silicon Valley shakers and movers are tuned in. These guys smell commerce better than a hammerhead downstream of a shipwreck. http://brillouinenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Brillouin-PR-AlwaysOn-Global-100-Companies-to-Watch-Announcement-7-6-15.pdf

      BTW, did Jen wear that Vera W Chantilly Lace number??

      • Roland

        Tom Darden’s (Industrial Heat/Cherokee Partners) wife is a V.P. at GE & Tom is very plugged into investment banking and larger pools of venture capital.

        I expect a lot of thought has gone into who will be participating in manufacturing components with a view to getting some heavyweights that might become competitors inside the tent from the get go.

        • Roland

          Another thing to consider, re: the competition, is the concept of contracting to supply heat to financially sound companies. Let’s say that the contract runs for 5 years; the entire amount of the signed contract becomes a negotiable instrument with a yield spread that allows IH to monetize it immediately and, of course, well prior to actually building anything once the device is proven beyond a reasonable doubt to be well engineered.

          No money down, no maintenance, no capital costs, no installation cost, just be among the first in your industry to slash costs; obviously gonna be a tough sell…

          Kinda looks like the mother of all money machines to me.

          P.S. The prior art extends back a least as far as the day Rossi walked into Focardi’s office with $10,000 and said take this money and show me what’s wrong with my device.

          • telessar

            If that were true about the prior art, then Rossi would stand almost no chance of being granted a patent.

            Fortunately for Rossi, the device has changed a great deal. His latest application is for the solid-fuel device. I don’t know when the first statements/demonstrations of that particular device were, but it is certainly possible that he didn’t make any before May of 2012.

            Of course, even if he gets patents on the solid-fuel device, people could still make pressurized hydrogen e-cats. There is an old application covering some parts of that device, but (in my personal opinion) I’m not holding my breath on that one.

        • telessar

          That’s all well and good, but if he doesn’t have a few enforceable patents, he is not going to end up owning the tent. There is no reason for GE to pay Rossi anything unless he actually has his IP protected.

      • Steve Kirkland

        I find the quote in the referenced article perhaps more pertinent to us:(the beguiled LENR/Rossi proponents), much more so than whether the mainstream is blinded by Hollywood, or the political factions are for or against:

        “Energy is the biggest business opportunity there is. There isn’t anything more important than energy. With clean, cheap energy you can create everything; you can create money, clean water, health, the basis for a higher standard of living. Brillouin Energy is the closest technology to anything commercial that we have worked on to date.”

        We will always have a hive or top down order to how we as humans cooperatively interact with one another. What’s the corporate adage about 20% of the workforce getting 80% of the innovation or work complete? You should count yourself fortunate to not be so much of the herd that you too would have missed this very interesting time or set of circumstances in human history! (…man, I sure hope that doesn’t appear as a buffoon’s statement several years from now!).
        From my perspective we should ask ourselves: Given our fortunate perspective and provided the comments like those from potential commercial competitors like Brillouin, what is it we could do cooperatively with this emerging new world technology?

        I think it a good start to understand the individual components that the quote above recognized.

        • GreenWin

          Good comments Steve. One hopes the emergence of a new energy paradigm will pave the way to equitable standards of living for the planet. AND spotlight the misanthropic chicanery of the culprits who delayed it.

          • Owen Geiger

            How about “Do to others as you would want them to do to you.” Would you want people trying to steal your hard earned ideas and possibly ruin your business?

  • GreenWin

    As was I. And perhaps a nice Chianti with the good Dottore.

  • Jarea1

    I totally agree with you. Besides, the world need to open eyes to LENR.

  • protn7

    If Rossi doesn’t publish enough data about the megawaat plant at the end of the year test he’s going to lose credibility.

  • GreenWin

    You gotta wonder sometimes. Which is more likely a “skam?” Operation Northwoods? Swine flu? 9/11? Project Matterhorn, or LENR? Damned confusing!

  • Axil Axil

    LENR will open the door to understanding the unified field theory combining general relativity and quantum mechanics that all science wants to figure out starting from Einstein. .

  • If he wants privacy why should we track him down? Even if we found out where, should we force our way into the company and demand their findings… wait, this is really Donald Trump right?

  • Jarea1

    As you say, that would not be “polite” but i also think that is a good idea.

    The topic is: He has the right to try to hide their secrets but do we also have the right to try to find them through other channels?

    We look for experience paparazzis!
    Is it not about getting industrial secrets but to confirm and clarify some of the premises we have. For example, who is the customer?, where is the 1MW plant?. How many people work with Rossi? Is really Rossi working and sleeping everyday in the container?. What kind of coffe do they trink? XD , XD /joke

  • rocky172534

    mike is this a joke?c’mon it’s a joke isn’t it.

  • people who have a budget and are not sure it is nothing, don’t care to check, they know the science is real, because the data are clear.

    the problem is not the evidence, even the bad evidence we observe, when piled make a clear photography.

    the problem is that the one who know it is real either don’t dare to tell their boss, their shareholder, or simply try to do it alone.

    Some today are doing it alone.

    some have done it, like Shell or nasa, and carefully don’t communicate on it.

    some have been fired.

    this is how groupthink is enforced, through self censorship, and if not respected, though terror by mindguard.

    imagine what happened to Elforsk boss when he was attacked by Sylvie Coyaud and its minions… He had bollocks not t flee … most French or US boss would have flee and said he have nothing to do with Rossi.

    the people who have the budget to make good inquiry, good research, manage the money , the company, of others people, so that cannot dare to work on LENR.

    Darden (like carl page) manage his company money with more freedom than usual and have a good insider knowledge of what is happening.

    DIA made a report. who cares?

    NRL and Spawar worked on it.

    the more it is disruptive, the less it is funded.


    guess why LHC have more money than EmDrive, while they both study possible break in current physics…
    because LHC does not propose already a break like emDrive, and because the LHC discovery will probably be useless, unlike EmDrive confirmation.

    Iter have no usefull ness and cost much more, but it does not propose to change physics.

  • radvar

    There are many ways to view the world in order to develop a sense of what is real.

    One is to see the world as chains of causation. That view is highly dependent on the starting point of the chains. If a starting point fails, or can be doubted, the entire string fails. That is the view that you appear to be using above.

    Another view is to see the world as a network of causation. In that view, all elements and all their interactions must be accounted for in considering what is real.

    The chains of causation view is of course simply a filtered subset of the network of causation view. The filtering, while highly useful as a sort of shorthand, is necessarily limiting as a mode of discerning reality. The filtering is always necessarily subjective, in the sense that choices have to be made about which chains to focus on in the network. Those choices are in turn always influenced by a person’s pre-conditioned values.

    If a person does or does not want to believe in something, they will filter for the chains of causation that support that view, ignoring the rest of the network.

    If you have a model for the full set of phenomena and relationships involved with LENR, that points to significant doubt about the reality of LENR (or the Rossi Effect), please provide it.

    • Uncle Bob

      As you say;- “If a person does or does not want to believe in something, they will filter for the chains of causation that support that view, ignoring the rest of the network.”
      I entirely agree.
      Prior to the last global financial crash, a whole lot of clever people were inventing new financial ‘products’ backed up by various models and formula to justify why what they were selling was good value and worthy of a triple ‘a’ investment rating.
      In spite of what common sense would tell us regarding the ‘chains of causation’ as you put it. the market chose the flowery language of ‘sub prime mortgages’ instead of calling them ‘loans that little hope of being repaid’, They were conned into believing that by lumping them together into ‘structured investment vehicles’ , a name which implies strength and mobility of assets, the whole worthless lot would become something of proven value.
      In a way they were right. The ‘structured investment vehicles’ carried the debt away from those who originally incurred it to those who were duped into taking it on. History records they lost almost all of it.

      The whole point is, never let flowery language and empty promises override common sense.
      Flowery language and promises are fine so long as it’s backed up by proven performance. If it’s backed up by just more of the same, it has no value at all.

      • radvar

        Yeah, but…

        Your story about sub-prime loans is still in the metaphor of “backed up”, as in chains of causation, instead of “surrounded by”, as in networks of causation.

        I appreciate your urging caution with respect to LENR, however, your original post verges on (or crosses right over into) casting doubt out of some personal need to make some type of impression on other people.

        Doubt is both a “dampener of enthusiasm” and a stifler of creative imagination. It’s very difficult to construct a view of the future, when our assumptions about the present wobble.

        It’s my view that if the information surrounding the Rossi Effect is taken as a whole, and placed in the context of a network of causation, then maintaining a dampening, stifling doubt about that information, based on asserting certain chains of causation is a needless and harmful sacrifice of both good feeling energy and opportunities for creative insight.

        We can split hairs and say of course there is some small probability that everyone has been hallucinating, and/or that some massive number of errors of judgment have been made, and/or that Rossi is an extremely clever influencer, however, that by itself only serves the purpose of those who NEED to have doubts.

        You’re welcome to it, but foisting that on others arouses in me step 6 in my original post.

  • Albert D. Kallal

    We can only arrive at this conclusion based on the witness
    and testimony of others. Remember, science is an act of faith on your part.

    There are many people today who don’t believe we went to the moon. We can only accept on an act of faith that we did go to the moon. Of
    course one will use collaboration of history and evidence to support ones position, but such a position is STILL an act of faith on your part. You thus have to accept the witness and testimony of others.

    And same goes for the wright brothers. Did they really
    fly on that day in 1903? Again, it is an act of faith on your part to accept the past witness and testimony of others on this matter.

    So going to the moon, or that Wright brother’s flight,
    your belief in these events is STILL an act of faith on your part.

    In fact your belief in near ANY science fact is based on
    the PAST history and witness and testimony of something you read from a book. Your acceptance of that science is thus an act of faith on your part. People somehow often try to pass science off as something other than a system based on acts of faith. People are shocked to realize that science is in fact a faith based system. And it based on past-tense witness and testimony of other people!

    As for Rossi?

    I think the best evidence of a working LENR device is the
    3rd party report. Rossi was not present each day, and the witness
    and testimony of those who conducted the test seem credible. That test ran without Rossi for 30 days and the conclusions are a very compelling witness and testimony. And Rossi stated that such a test was occurring, and again this was the case.

    >Is it on the basis of the subsequent sale to the “secret military customer” ?

    I agree this is a red flag. However the details of this purchase
    are not clear. Did the military purchase, but Rossi not deliver? There is some “wiggle” room on these claims, but they are less than ideal.

    All we can do is look at Rossi’s claims and statements.
    And then back up such claims with evidence which in term will allow you to make a conclusion as to Rossi’s claims being credible or not.

    I don’t think the issue is does LENR exist – we have a
    LOT of independent people as credible witness that support and have provided evidence that LENR is real.

    So the only really remaining issue is does Rossi have
    what he claims to have? He stated that a company purchased rights to the e-cat, and sure enough it turned out to IH. Rossi stated he was building a really nice new plant, and pictures showed this to be the case (much much nicer then the crude plant and public demonstrated in 2011). And in fact that 2011 was a public demonstration!

    So such claims of building a plant, being purchased by IH
    so on all came to be and thus for the most part such claims by Rossi are credible (and evidence exists to support these claims).

    ONE BIG issue is that outside of Rossi, we have LITTLE evidence
    as to how well Rossi’s plant is working. In this regards, we are relying “mostly” on Rossi’s witness and testimony. So yes, this is a problem!

    So yes, we are placing a lot of “eggs” in the one Rossi basket!

    At the end of the day, like near all science, you are
    making an act of faith. In the case of Rossi, for many to accept Ross’s claims will require a 3rd party utilizing such a reactor in a commercial setting. I VERY much accept this is the #1 issue holding back acceptance of Rossi’s claims.

    So for me, based on my knowledge and evidence I thus accept
    Ross’s claims. Many people are not ready to make such an act of faith until such time better evidence exists for them.

    So like going to the moon, the Wright Brothers or Rossi,
    all require an act of faith on your part.

    And for many people they are rightfully uncomfortable to
    ONLY accept Rossi’s claims – the instant others can come forward and support and verify Ross’s claims will go a long way in this regards.

    We really at the point in time in which you either accept
    Rossi’s claims, or you don’t. A good portion of Ross’s claims have come to be (along with supporting evidence).

    So Ross’s has a reasonable degree of success and track
    record in his public claims.

    Rossi’ has spoken very well of the performance of the
    plant. Since many of Rossi’s claims have come to be, then it is reasonable to assume that claims in terms of performance are credible, but they are still just claims without good supporting evidence.

    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

    • Uncle Bob

      I have to agree with your logic there Albert and I accept that different people require different levels of verification to justify their faith, to the extreme end where some people require none at all.
      I suppose my point is how much evidence people need to support their faith. I have to accept that this is different for all people.
      The fact that the Mormon religion has millions of followers would indicate that for some people, neither evidence nor logic are required to justify their faith. They are happy to hold a particular ‘faith’ based on what just one person said.
      My argument is that in the case for a working e-cat with a guaranteed COP of 6, we have pretty much reached a similar level of verifiable evidence and logic.
      Although I was originally very enthusiastic and supportive for one whole year when all this started, that enthusiasm and support dropped away rapidly when each foundation stone of my belief was chipped away by subsequent inconsistencies, obvious errors in measurements, loss of support of various supporters and partners, contradictions and non delivery of promised milestones.

      Had my belief been based on hope or blind conviction, I would still be believing, but alas, I have placed the same demands for verification of veracity on Mr. Rossi’s endeavors as other people have constantly placed on mine over my whole long life.
      Constant non delivery on promise and non verification of process indicates non existence of results, or the ability to produce them.

      In this particular matter, my faith is now at an all time low..

      • GreenWin

        Bob, it is painful to read your posts. Sympathies. But, chin up. Here’s a stress relief vacation suggestion. https://www.facebook.com/ShipTrapIsandResort

        I’ve been there (virtually) – it’s managed by IGZ Hospitality and it’s great!

  • Obvious

    We must believe in him. We want to be a Satisfied Customer.

  • if you analyse groupthink theory you see that dissenting data are actively ignored.

    I mean, energy is used not to have access to informations.

    i don’t say to hide, just not to see.

    moreover there is mindguard like Sylvie Coyaud, Luc Allemand, Ethan Siegel, Huizenga, Parks, to motivate people to self-censor, and lower fans to harass dissenters.


    I have seens my engineering school organizing Web design course based on scientific controversies like LENr and EmDrive, and I was shocked to see
    – that their level of information was very weak (not much more than extremetech articles… not even NextBigFuture level), but not so negative
    – that they were not interesting at all to update their site, after I explained them what was happening, and describing my personal network around LENR

    it is strange because in 30 minutes I can get most recent data on LENR… (partly because of an activist called AlainCo who gather all)

  • US_Citizen71

    Why we would we want to help Gary Wright? No good would likely come from early publication of who the customer is or where the test is happening. The most likely outcome would be for Gary Wright or someone like him to sic the local government on the customer for operating a non-licensed nuclear reactor or some other such garbage.