Predicting the Rollout of LENR in the USA, China (Tom Whipple)

Tom Whipple has written another excellent update on the state of affairs in the world of LENR in the Falls Church News-Press (Falls Church, Virginia) newspaper. In an article titled “The Peak Oil Crisis: The Next ‘Keystone’ Debate”, Whipple predicts that next year there will be a major media stir in when it becomes apparent (following the assumed successful conclusion of the 1MW E-Cat plant by Andrea Rossi) that LENR is an energy technology which will seriously disrupt the existing energy producing industries.

Here’s a link to the article:

Whipple paints two very different pictures when predicting how LENR will be received. In the United States, he is pessimistic about the initial reception that LENR will get. He writes:

In a matter of days after it becomes apparent that the technology is valid and could shake the economy to its core, television ads will start claiming that the technology is bad for your health, and that it should be tested for another 30 or 40 years before the public is endangered. The TV ads naturally will be accompanied by a rush of lobbyists to Capital Hill seeking to outlaw or at least mandate years of testing before it can be released to the public. It will sound a lot like the campaign against AC electricity 120 years ago.

However, Whipple sees a very different situation unfolding in China, where we know that Industrial Heat has already been active in preparing the ground for the introduction of the E-Cat:

Fortunately, however, the leadership of Industrial Heat, which at least for the minute seems to be the company that could be the first to offer this technology for sale, has a stratagem to circumvent to what will surely become widespread opposition to the technology. Industrial Heat simply took the technology to China where PR firms, lobbyists, congressmen and TV commercials have zero impact on decision makers. Moreover, China, where people are dying from their own coal smoke, is desperately in need of a clean source of energy ASAP.

Personally I think it’s probably too early to be so definitive in forecasting how a LENR roll-out will go. There will certainly be entrenched interests who will feel threatened by the emergence of the E-Cat — but I expect there will also be widespread public support and enthusiasm for an energy technology that is safe, clean and much cheaper than the current options. If public opinion is firmly behind LENR as a real alternative technology, politicians in the United States, or any other country with a democratic form of government, who stand in its way might feel real pressure from voters. However this assumes that the voting public would be getting accurate information about LENR — and if Industrial Heat or Leonardo Corporation are wanting to sway public opinion in favor of the E-Cat, they would have to finally have a strong public relations presence to provide education and accurate information about their technology.

As far as China goes, I agree that if the Chinese government is behind the E-Cat, it will make things much easier for its introduction. However, China has billions of dollars invested in other energy projects, including solar, wind and nuclear, with the jobs of probably millions of people connected to these projects, and it is unlikely that it would immediately drop them in order to push LENR alone. The Chinese government is not immune from pressure and opinion from its own people. There may be some delicate balancing that will need to be done in order to avoid major economic and political disruption there.

So at this point I don’t have a firm expectation on how things will develop if LENR hits the market — there are so many variables at play — but the stakes are very high around the world when it comes to energy, and it will certianly be very interesting to see how things materialize.

  • Bob Greenyer

    Many decision makers or their friends are invested in historical energy systems.

    I expect there to be a horrible transition period as incumbent providers fight for legislation to either be subsidised for their losses or have mandated extra charges on the remaining users or pay less for the micro-generation.

    Already, we have the Chinese/French only wanting to help the UK build a new Nuclear power plant if there is GUARANTEED profit, rising with inflation, underwritten by the taxpayer.

    In Hawaii, the electricity generator has successfully got permission to pay half the rate for consumer generated energy received compared to what the consumer pays for electricity taken.

    In India, I harnessed the power I generated that I did not use in a battery array – if the array fell below 20% charge, then the system used mains to re-charge it. this way I practically always used all the power I generated (it charged our electric mopeds for transport also which effectively provided extra storage)

    The kind of leverage that old electric will have on consumers – paying for grid upgrades etc – will be removed by the action of say the Tesla Gigafactory

    Having a module in your house that can store the power you need for the night will allow many to pull the plug – then the only choice for the utilities is to lobby for taxpayer support – of the kind that the Chinese/French have seemingly done.

    • Frechette

      In India I attached some alligator clips to the power line by passing the watt hour meter. I got all the juice I needed at no cost.

  • georgehants

    Money, Money, Money, it’s a rich mans World.

  • GordonDocherty

    “Industrial Heat simply took the technology to China where PR firms,
    lobbyists, congressmen and TV commercials have zero impact on decision
    makers. Moreover, China, where people are dying from their own coal
    smoke, is desperately in need of a clean source of energy ASAP.”

    and don’t forget India, Indonesia and Africa – LENR promises to not only be clean, abundant and safe, but also cheap, compact (requiring a VERY small footprint space-wise), localized and easily transportable to and in remote areas. Result: pretty much the in line with what happened in IT, only across the globe on a much greater scale and affecting everyone as economic growth is stimulated “from the ground up”, improving life – and life expectancy and raising living standards for all.

  • theBuckWheat

    The issue in the US and western Europe will be far more from the progressive world view of being rabidly hostile to any development that will lower costs and increase personal prosperity.

  • Charles

    Republican e-catworld readers must now contemplate for whom they will vote in the R primaries. It strikes me that Trump, Carson and especially Fiorina are far more attuned to the technical world than any of the others. The important primaries will be held before Rossi’s 1-MW plant results hit the news so crank that into your thoughts. Other that that you have until July 18-21 to holler and yell.

    • Hador_NYC

      it doesn’t matter. people want cheap clean energy. Even climate deniers like me still love cheap clean energy.

      • mcloki

        Straight up economic choice. Politics has little to do with this.

      • bachcole

        I agree. And I am an AGW denier and proud of the fact that I did my own research without listening to scientists who only have a job if they support the hypothesis of AGW.

        • Hador_NYC

          the thing is there is plenty of research that leads one to a skeptical opinion. That’s how I changed my mind, by reading the papers linked to by articles.

        • Hador_NYC

          besides, who wouldn’t want cleaner energy sources? In NY, around 1900 there were literally thousands of tons of horse crap lining the streets because that was the primary mode of transportation in that era. Oil, gasoline and diesel, improved that situation by replacing those horses with cars, and is one of the reasons feces related illnesses no longer plague the city as they once did. Oil is cleaner and cheaper than horses. LENR may prove to be cleaner and cheaper than oil, and who wouldn’t like that?

          IMHO, thorium reactors are much better than oil and coal systems since there is less mining, and the worse waste is about 300 year half life elements. I would love to see Indian Point (the fission plant 30 miles north of NYC) replaced with a thorium reactor, and more to boot. Now if Rossi’s tech does what we all here hope it will, then so much the better.

          • Bernie Koppenhofer

            Is that really how you think things work? Insider trading is bad, therefore it will be outlawed. But it is now legal. Big banks should not get bigger and more powerful, therefore pass a law so they won’t get bigger. But that law has been lobbied out of existence. Billionaires should not control the election process. But they now do. With this Congress and Supreme Court all you have to do is follow the money.

        • Donk970

          I think Whipple is right on the money with this. The existing energy industry and the hot fusion industry will spend millions a day on a massive FUD campaign to kill LENR much the same as the health insurance industry spent millions a day back in 2008 to kill any talk of single payer. Single payer posed and existential threat to the health insurance industry then and LENR poses an existential threat to not only the existing energy industry now but also to continued multi-billions a year funding for hot fusion. The FUD campaign worked brilliantly for the health insurance industry then and it will work even better now.

          • timycelyn

            To some extent that’s a parochial US/EU viewpoint. The response is, if you want to commit national commercial suicide by letting the Chinese and Indians walk all over you with goods made even cheaper due to low cost LENR energy and all it’s benefits (heating, transport etc etc), feel free.

            I can guarantee both countries will run with this – indeed are already running – and if the US or any of their other trading partners tries to rein them in they’ll get the middle finger salute.

          • HS61AF91

            believe it’ll be a matter of catching up, vice reining in.

          • HS61AF91

            True, still there’s this big difference: not everybody is sick all the time, but everybody uses energy all the time.

      • Ecco

        Even climate deniers like me…

        Do you deny the very existence of climate? Interesting.

        • Hador_NYC

          Yes, climate does not exist. Thank you for the laugh. However, since I am not sure you are joking, let me clarify. I have been called a climate change denier because my opinion on what the dominate force driving climate change over the last 150 years changed from man to nature around 2006. Before that, I believed that man was the driving force for the last 150 years, but around then, and since then, I have become skeptical of that theory. Thus, I am called a climate change denier. Rather offensive term to me, but I felt the need to make lite of it today.

          • invient

            Do you mean that we have passed into enough positive feedbacks that now what we do (given fossil fuel use) will have little effect.

            Shit has hit the fan, and we can’t unplug it!

          • bachcole

            I lost a job (a rather minor job I admit) because I said that there were serious scientists who doubted AGW.

    • HS61AF91

      One choice, Senator Rand Paul. Fiscal conservative, non-interventionist, beholding to no lobby, son of Ron.

      • bachcole

        Your very last reason is my very first reason for not making that choice. (:->)

        • HS61AF91

          It is always calming to have made the choice, like me, instead of wallowing in the mire of indecision. May you have also reached the peace having chosen your candidate. Can not imagine what you could have against the senior Paul, but that’s your prerogative!

  • MasterBlaster7

    I know you’re out there. I can feel you now. I know that you’re afraid. You’re afraid of us. You’re afraid of change. I don’t know the future. I didn’t come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it’s going to begin. I’m going to hang up this phone, and then I’m going to show these people what you don’t want them to see. I’m going to show them a world without coal, oil and gas. A world where anything is possible. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

    • Hador_NYC

      funny, but you should have changed your avatar name to Neo.

  • suhas R

    Great to read three of seven comments mentioning India in ref to LENR where the Govt proposed next big power investment in five years is large 140 gigawatt of imported solar power that will create lot of mechanical junk and electronic/ chemical contamination as it stops working in few(three/five/seven definitely not promised or guaranteed twenty) years time . Also planners add Few gigawatts of Nuclear fission power..Both will increase/ add to heavy air and water pollution/contamination present today( though these are non-polluting green technologies) when they will be decommisioned after Entry of LENR in big ways
    But today neither Govt(only small announced/sponcered effort) nor private sector is really backing work of Few Individuals and Rubiitpower (Titanium based LENR energy researcher). We are all coordinating combined efforts .
    The reasons are same as mentioned by Gordon,Gerard or Bob.Thanks to Them
    Everybody in Lenr field is ruled by ????????
    We are confident of reaching the goal and save the people of the country .though we are short of Funds for our work
    I also agree with Industrial Heat strategy to reach China for reaching the goal unhindered though they have large resources
    I sincerely promise during this Diwali- festival of lights in India) that in couple of years our efforts will provide India and the third world with Real Lenr power and light for their day to day use

  • passerby

    Water heaters are not sellable on the DNM, because you cannot ship freight anonymously. It is completely different from sticking a few ounces in a prepaid envelope and placing into a dropbox.

    • Frechette

      The Mafia will find a way if there is money to be made. Rest assured.

      • passerby

        If they could they would already be doing so. 4 billion dollars worth of cars are stolen every year, yet none sell through darknetmarkets. That is a huge potential market left untapped. If you ask yourself why that is only one answer makes sense: too difficult to ship.

  • Hi all

    Simply put those countries that adopt LENR the fastest will lead the world in the coming century. Those that dither will be left behind as the British Empire was in the combustion engine and mass production era when America came to the fore. And as was Europe in the electronics era, when Japan came to the fore.

    The new frontier is space, those late to the fray will be under the thumb of those who got their first. In space there will be no control over how fast technology will advance. From there, those in the lead will flood the markets, with cheap mass produced products, mine the asteroids for rare metals and flood those markets too.

    In terms of military they will sit at the top of the gravity well, work it out.

    Nickel and Lithium in the quantities needed, which are minute (E= mc^2), are abundant all over the world. Small nation states will create their own LENR programs, we cannot even find where Rossi’s test plant is based. Individuals will create their own LENR, as will none state actors of every hue. Blocking LENR development will be like stopping up the safety valve on pressure cooker, suicidally stupid.

    Far better to control the release of LENR with companies like IH Brilion Toyotah and the rest, and then implement LENR quickly under a controlled market and flood it in a controlled way, with controlled suppliers.

    Kind Regards walker

    • bachcole

      I see the reverse, sort of. There will be less competition and less imperialism. But it won’t be completely absent. And catching up with regard to LENR would not take very long. I see falling behind as only a problem for politicians whose constituents see the world as you do and will dump any politician who allowed us to fall behind, even if falling behind is 80% bogus.

    • Pekka Janhunen

      If one colonises the solar system using O’Neill type rotating few kilometre diameter cylinders with 10 m thick walls so that there is 1g,1bar inside, and if one has LENR so that one can also live in places without solar energy such as the Oort cloud, there is enough accessible small body material in our solar system to make living space which is equivalent to millions of Earths. One can basically forget planets, the real growth potential is in artificial spinning habitats, because per produced living area, they need million times less mass than a natural planet. These things were originated and researched in the 1970’s, but have since been a bit forgotten. Pictures can be seen e.g. at . It is time to recall those studies and to update them into LENR, LED and E-sail era.

      • Hi all

        In Reply to Pekka Janhunen on where LENR will inevitably lead us.

        Your analysis is correct, the massive improvement in drone technology we are already seeing will make automated production of such habitats very simple and quick.

        I said in the past that the people who make money in a gold rush are not the prospectors, they are pick shovel salesman with a grubstake bank but only a few of us know what the future pick and shovels are. 😉

        Kind Regards walker

  • Ophelia Rump

    China’s strength is it’s ability to turn on a dime and get things done. China is by far superior to the U.S.A in it’s top down leadership. In large part this is from a thousands year old tradition of seeking out the best minds, rather than electing self serving ego maniacs.

    China would have no problem engaging any scale of action it deems a priority.

    • Billy Jackson

      That’s a double edged sword they are playing with.. i agree completely about the ability for them to move with speed and decisiveness that makes the USA look glacier slow by comparison. It seems great if your the one making decisions or helping guide that engine.. not so great when your a victim of it and have no where to turn for having your voice of dissent heard without undo suppression or retaliation.

    • deleo77

      I agree that LENR will roll out in China first, in large part due to the lack of regulatory hurdles and entrenched interests. Also, they are simply in dire need of it because of their air pollution issue. But I think the rollout will be gradual and won’t make world news headlines. A few factories in Shenzen will install them for some factory heating. One of the big issues will be the cost to produce e-cats, and the other will be the need for some on-site supervision. The last thing IH would want is a runaway meltdown early in the rollout. It would be used against them for years to come.

      It’s kind of a blessing in my opinion that cold fusion became LENR. If the media picked up on the rollout as cold fusion then I could imagine a 60 Minutes story. But an LENR device providing factory heating in China is a little bit less of a sexy story. But maybe that’s a good thing. Better to fly under the radar with a slow lift-off to work out the kinks.

  • Heath

    I would agree if the oil industry not sold off their oil properties en mass over the last few years and banks and investment companies divested away from the fossil fuel hegemony. They know what’s coming. Things are not like they used to be–this will wash over the world very quickly especially when you now have governments committed to ending climate change, making this much more politically expedient. Those that will fight this will do so because they have a lot to lose which always can be expected.

    • US_Citizen71

      One thing to keep in mind is that the sell-off of the oil fields was due to changes in corporate tax law making it more advantageous to lease them than own them. The fact that LENR will be likely rolling out soon is just a happy coincidence. You are giving the powers that be and the oil companies too much credit for foresight that they don’t have.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer

        Are you serious, like Wall Street lobbying for insider trading to be legal, now for all practical purposes insider trading is legal. Or, the tobacco lobby, or the health insurance lobby, or the gun lobby or the war lobby, or the anti Dodd Frank law lobby.

        • US_Citizen71

          I wish I could quote the exact changes to you but I find tax law dull. I was informed by a tax accountant of the changes when I was explaining to him that the oil companies must believe LENR is real because they sold off their fields and then leased them back. It has something to do with tax credits for depletion changing as well as another factor.

      • Omega Z

        Oil companies have foresight. They look 40 years ahead & several are well aware of LENR as they have done LENR research themselves. They are fully aware of it’s potential & probably a rough timeline of it coming to market..

        Oil companies have never owned much oil. They purchase by bid leases on public lands or production rights on private held property. Beyond that, They pay about 15% of gross oil sales to the land holder beit public or private.

        What the Oil companies have sold off is the leases most of which was for future oil exploration & production 20+ years out. In the future, they will re purchase those leases, but If LENR has impacted oil needs by that time, those leases will be worth substantially less as will be the price to repurchase them.

  • “In a matter of days after it becomes apparent that the technology is valid and could shake the economy to its core, television ads will start claiming that the technology is bad for your health..”

    Fortunately we can make a lot of noise through the power of the internet.

  • US_Citizen71

    Could be. The suggestion makes me think of Teapot Dome.

  • kenko1

    Let the Chinese be the LENR guinea pigs. They need it desparately anyway pollution wise. After a few million are deployed, any safety issues (radiation,runaways) should manifest themselves.

    The oil & gas companies. will see the handwriting on the wall and energy prices will drop to 1950’s levels. Thus starting another economic boom and cushioning the economy for even cheaper LENR energy.

    • bachcole

      I agree. I have zero fear of LENR, radiation and such, but other people do. When the Chinese are doing it, it will ease the pressure in the South China Sea and fearful people in the US will see that there is no problem. It is all good.

  • Hi all

    With the resume in the decline of oil prices we are starting to move toward the edge on a second oil market shorting cliff. Like the one that began in June last year steepened in October and lasted to a dead cat cat bounce in February only to hit Sub $40 in August, now the price is approaching its last bottom at an ever steepening rate. Expectation of $20 prices are frightening the markets but in reality the Bottom is probably around $10 before oil settles somewhere around $30 and goes into slow decline back down to $10 over a decade or two. Unless Saudi Arabia wants to play the ultra long game and destroy all it competitors and keeps the price at the $20 to $8 dollar range, that would give them almost total Oil market share and probably around the same income as they get now on a much lower market share with higher volume.

    Saudi Arabia is probably very aware that LENR enabled pumping will allow some of its more expensive cost competitors to compete, so it will almost certainly be wanting to be the first to adopt LENR pumps.
    The effect of LENR is increasingly being discussed in the energy markets and has been on their minds for some time now:

    Kind Regards walker

    • EEStorFanFibb

      Hi Ian, I always enjoy reading your fun posts.

      But I have a question about LENR vs. oil. Do you really think oil demand will go down because of LENR commercialization? Isn’t oil mostly about transportation, while LENR won’t be about transportation for a very long time, if ever?

      TD doesn’t even mention transportation on slide #7 here:

      • Pekka Janhunen

        If IH can make 1 MW electricity generating plants, that kind of units could also power ships.

        • Agaricus

          Or bypass power generation and just use steam turbines directly for propulsion. However even a smallish freighter can require 20 MW upwards at the propeller shaft, so perhaps railway locomotives (c.3-8 MW) might be more suited to first employment of the developed technology in transport.

          • Omega Z

            I’m with Pekka on this one.

            Ships use tons of oil puching water out of the way. The ROI would be huge. Rail transport can move a ton of cargo 500 miles on 1 gallon of fuel.

            However, tranportation is sometime down the road. Still waiting on steam heat at present.

        • Bob

          Not in the near future anyway. The 1MW plant still uses estimated a sizeable amount of electricity. Where will this come from on a mobile vehicle? Do they have a diesel generating electricity to run the eCat plant?.
          Now that is double maintenance and double costs. I doubt that mobile versions of LENR will be seen until one can get efficient electric generation from them. Even if the COP is high enough to create steam at the volume required to spin a turbine, I doubt that they will still be used. Having a reactor to create steam to spin a turbine to power an alternator to then power an electric motor is quite complex and maintenance heavy.
          Existing ships will not be converted over very soon nor will new ones be built using this topography.
          Large scale LENR use will, as Rossi has stated, be used for stationary heat first. The stationary electricity second. He stated mobile applications may be 20 years down the road. I believe he is correct.

          • Omega Z

            I agree it will be a while before Ships are LENR powered.

            However, “Large” Ships already utilize auxiliary generators(1 or more) so that wouldn’t be an issue. One could also utilize multiple LENR generators creating a grid system each providing power to the other. There’s also steam powered LNG Super Tanker’s already in operation. Note: 1MW isn’t going to work. Most large ships start at (the low end)20/30MW and up to 100MW.

            Naval ships- Arleigh Burke-class destroyer

            3 × Allison AG9140 Generators (2,500 kW each, 440 V) 7.5MW at 440 V

            4 × General Electric LM2500 gas turbines each generating 26,500 shp (19,800 kW) 106,000 shp (79,000 kW) 79MW

            As Transportation goes, Shipping is low hanging fruit. They will be interested in this technology very early on. Especially being they are under a lot of pressure to reduce (NOx) emissions. However, there are some issues they will need to explore such as How will LENR reactors react to an unstable platform such as rough seas.

            I also doubt retro-fitting would be a good idea considering the difference between fossil engines & the way LENR works among many other variables. However, they build 100’s of new ships every year. That would require many Gigawatts of LENR reactors.

      • Brent Buckner

        As I read Ian’s post he was primarily making a point about oil *supply*. With a cheaper source of heat and electricity, various crude sources have lower break-even prices. (Going further, synthetic fuels would have lower breakeven prices.)

        • Brent Buckner

          The synthetic fuels point is mainly to come up with a ballpark ceiling for the long-term price of oil. Per , we can guess that a wholesale price of electricity of 3cents/kWh (from ) gives a long-term ceiling in the neighbourhood of $48 per barrel (or $24 at the hoped-for 1.5cents/kWh). [This is not a solicitation, nor advice to engage in any transaction. Futures and options trading involves risk.]

          • Omega Z

            It would be my guess that electricity of 3cents/kWh would be consumer price(Based on a billing breakdown) & not wholesale.

            What the consumer pays in entirety is another question that depends on many variables. My billing breakdown lists everything individually and based on it with 3cents/kWh electricity would be about 8-9 cents a kilowatt hour including the multiple taxes. I’d be happier if this were 6 cents.

          • Brent Buckner

            My guess is that for that chart to show 5.5c/kWh for levelized cost of electricity generated by coal is that the chart is for wholesale at best (if not, then only generation cost ignoring transmission et al). I base that guess upon comparison to costs quoted in and

          • Omega Z

            You’re probably right. I often forget that I get to choose my source. Thus the breakdown of my billing. About a year ago, I was paying variably 4.5 to 5 cents for coal supplied electricity. Thus buying direct I get wholesale pricing.

            Beyond that, I pay a monthly service(Infrastructure) fee & about 1 cent transit totaling about 3 cents/Kw & about 3 cents/Kw in various taxes.

            Isn’t it cool that the Government makes a 25% profit, zero costs & no skin in the game. I’ve decided I don’t want to be in business or have a Corporation. I want to be a Government. 🙂

            Compared to what I pay now, 3 cents per Kw tho cheaper is more expensive considering the cost difference in coal verses Nickel used. However, your talking a whole new facility & current cost verses an old facility that probably was paid for years ago. So you have a whole new cost structure.

      • Hi all

        In reply EEStorFanFibb on why Oil prices are dropping when it could take a decade or three to replace combustion engine cars with LENR enabled cars.

        First of all petrol and diesel cars are not the main use of oil and other fossil fuels;) as others point out, it is used for fuel in ships, aircraft, trains, as well as powering generators, industrial processes in everything from making bricks and cement to making paper.

        Because what we are really talking about is HEAT! All of those things and millions more things besides, including heat engines like cars or trains, or drying machines in a laundry, even refrigerators, they all use heat.

        You may have noticed it is called Industrial Heat LLC.

        This is because the rules for Industrial processes are more amenable to innovation, home and general public use will require several years of industrial use before certification, Rossi has mentioned this many times.

        That said direct LENR cars will come, for Toyota and the rest are already producing cars that will allow them to exploit LENR! They are electric. 😉 Having electric drives means using LENR via the buffer of electric energy storage for say 5 years then replacing that storage with an LENR direct drive would be very simple. Those LENR electric sources will tried out in Formula 1 and NASCAR, which is where you will first see them.

        So how does all this cause oil prices to drop now?

        Oil is traded based on future value, in fact the fuel you use in your car has been traded tens of times before you put it in your tank. That is what the oil market is. Oil is traded by transporters, investors, oil field owners, refiners and retailers to name but a few, all of them have costs which add to the value of black goop that you would not want to put in your car! Many of those processes that add value are virtual and involve breaking bulk and investing in risky business etc.

        Much of that future value is perceived rarity. When you live in a world where oil is expected to be needed for more than a hundred years and you have enough for thirty to fifty so it will get rarer and the supply will decrease forcing you to use more expensive energy sources, you will spend a lot investing in ways of discovering more and ensuring you get every drop out of a well.

        News up, the oil fields have stopped being so careful to get every drop out of every well and Big Oil has been making less and less investment in exploration, tens of thousands of redundant oil drillers confirm this.

        That said much of oil production is by suppliers with massive production and pumping costs. Then there are transport costs. So those are the ones who will go under. Any way that they can use LENR to reduce those costs will permit them to survive, so the Oil industry will be among the early LENR adopters. Remember for an Industry in a market that is LENR enabled, not adopting LENR makes you extinct.

        So we have a massive over supply of a product in a disrupted market that now has an expected future value that is probably a tenth of what it was. A maximum of 5 to 30 years as fuel and in a declining market! A market for oil in lubricants and as precursor chemical will still exist but that future market is massively over supplied the Saudi’s and the other cheap suppliers realise this and want to kill off the future competition for that small market share, thus replacing lost high value with stack it high sell it cheap volume, thus enabling Saudi Arabia and the other cheap suppliers to still enjoy the same wealth for another 30 to 50 years.

        That is what is driving down oil’s price, simple supply and demand.

        Kind Regards walker

        • builditnow

          Ian, you are right, electric drive cars are ready for a retrofit or new LENR model.
          A micro turbine / generator is small and light for the power and could be LENR powered via a hot cat, then retro fitted as a battery charger to electric cars. A 15kw unit could fit in the Frunk of a tesla for instance and could enable it to drive indefinitely at something like 65 mph. Then it would charge up while stopped. This would enable a smaller battery pack.
          Even a 1kw constant charger would likely keep most drivers charged up.
          Plug it into your house and run the meter backwards when parked.

          • builditnow

            A new option for when your gasoline engine fails. Replace it with electric drive, some batteries and an LENR turbine generator. No more fuel costs. Very little maintenance.

    • builditnow

      Ian, yes, the Saudi’s are absolutely aware of LENR, see my comment above.

  • Omega Z

    I don’t see either picture coming to a theater anytime in the future.

    At present, all that may be in the near future(F9) is Industrial heat applications. A very efficient water or space heater, Which by the way requires electricity to operate.

    Depending on how Industrial Heat/Leonardo play it, This may raise a few eyebrows, but this could be just 1 big sleeper in the beginning. When reported, “This could be producing cheap, clean, electricity in just a few short years…”, the general public just moved on to something more interesting. Arguments of LENR Pro or Con will fall on deaf ears.

    In the mean time, Industrial heat application use will gradually spread and as it will have little or no impact on oil or coal few will notice. By the time LENR is producing electicity, most arguments against it would become pointless as it will have a history of use.

    I believe those who play the China card are going to be disappointed. People’s views of China is more of a Media propaganda then fact. They have issues just as everyone else does. In the mean time, China approved 155 more Coal plants in the 1st 9 months of 2015 to be completed over the next 3 years. This is actually a slow down for them.

    • Agaricus

      Not to mention 100 new nuclear reactors to be built in the next ten years plus a further 300 planned. But as you say, China is just as prone to human failure as any other country, and there is a lot of water between their current plans and reality.

      I completely agree that introduction of cold fusion reactors by IH will be a cautious, slow and low-key process (which may well be slowed further by government-driven bureaucratic intervention). The public will only slowly become aware of the new reality unless of course some competitor chooses to make a big splash. Either way, opposition across a wide front is inevitable.

  • Roland

    Despite steady decreases in % up-line time for existing power plants for the last 3 years, strongly suggesting overcapacity, the Chinese government has permitted for 155 new coal fired power stations to be built in the next 2 years. When these new plants come on line the current thin profit margins in yet another industry are expected to evaporate as 50% of existing plants are idle much of the time.

    Clearly there is no demand for these coal fired plants but they’ll be built anyways; the US$680 billion price tag means that the usual 10-15% skim is serious money bound for the corrupt pockets of party and army insiders. The concept that vested interests hold more sway in America than China really doesn’t withstand much scrutiny as the threatened interests in China are the government rather than entities trying to influence the government.

    Economics will drive LENR globally as early adopters, be they nations or businesses, will buy or bury the laggards, and deliberate foot draggers, over time.

    Look to enlightened social democracies to lead the charge, they’re already committed to sustainability and have already gone the extra mile towards building a viable future despite the costs.

    • Omega Z

      Roland, People tend propose purposes upon things that don’t seem to make sense

      I would propose this. China is still a developing country still very tilted towards export. Should it transition to a consumer oriented society(The Chinese Government goal.) That excess electrical power would be needed. This transition is a hard task to accomplish & like all Governments, they fumble on the job a lot.

      Your post of “Built in the next 2 years”. I believe it is the next 3 years which is a slow down from past power plant building schedule.

      • Roland

        Over capacity in a succession of industries is the hallmark of Chinese policy decisions run amok, largely due to the power of corruption, for example China poured more concrete between 2010 and 2013 than the USA did in the 20th century. The results; 60,000,000 unoccupied dwellings, unneeded public infrastructure and a bankrupt concrete industry.

        The list goes on and on and they’re externalizing their problems, dumping anyone?

  • Private Citizen

    China has entrenched, powerful oligarchs in coal, oil, nuclear, hydro, solar. There are forces there who would resist change as well. And the people and press there have less of a voice, as far as that goes. It is not axiomatic that China would be first to embrace change.

    • Hi all

      In reply to Private Citizen on the matter of power elite influence

      China is two things:

      1) A command economy, despite all the restructuring it is still a centrally controlled communist state. Have a look at the recent pronouncement on Golf courses.
      2) A manufacturing economy; they make stuff it is their key source of trade.

      Fuels of all kinds are considered and are in point of fact a cost to their economy. That command economy want to reduce them and their costs.

      Kind Regards walker

      • Roland

        The command economy was advanced to me years ago by a very bright guy who’d actually been there as the argument for why China would solve its pollution problems; that worked in one city for a couple of weeks during the 2008 Olympics at considerable economic costs…

  • Hi all

    The primary factor to consider is the increase in volume of selling is ramping up very fast each day, almost to a level I would call panic, I hope people realise that like market Oil does have a bottom.

    While the Saudi Arabians seem to be looking to break their competitors and short sellers like Goldman Sachs are looking to maximise their short positions with a $20 oil position,
    I think dropping below $30 per barrel before the Rossi 1MW plant results are announced is premature.

    Kind Regards walker

    • Roland

      I don’t think it unreasonable that the Saudi government is aware of Rossi’s progress and that they’ve formulated their strategy based on the recognition that LENR is a profound threat to their economy.

      Their response is the only rational one, get as much oil out of the ground while there is still a market for it, hence the surprise decision, to the uninformed, to not curtail production last summer to support prices as they’ve done in every other instance since 1972.

      • builditnow

        The Saudi’s are absolutely aware of LENR+, at the very least from a prominent media report in “Gulf News” (that’s the Persian Gulf) that discussed India’s rush into LENR research. It was a good article and there is no doubt that there was a considerable push in India at the time. Starting about that time, the Saudi’s happened to make the decision to keep pumping oil regardless of the price.

        Pumping at any price makes sense if you want to be one of the last oil producers standing. It helps drive the higher priced producers out of the market. For instance, my Canadian friend tells me that the current oil prices have put a big damper on tar sands.
        When LENR makes it to the general public consciousness, there will be little incentive for oil exploration and if the high priced producers have already left the market, the remaining producers could expect prices to rise some during the transition to LENR power.

        All the attention will be on LENR+ power leaving the remaining oil producers to keep making profits for a while. When LENR hits public consciousness there will be so many people working on it your head will spin. Just to give you a feel, I’ve heard that Apple has 600 working on self driving cars. Add in Google, Uber and Tesla. So, just in Silicon Valley, a few thousand very smart people that I know of, double that for what I don’t know.

        LENR could easily have many millions working on all sorts of aspects of deployment. The pace could be quite amazing, depending on how long those against LENR can hold it back. A year after the Wright Brothers flew near Paris, it was estimated 7 million people were working on aircraft. That’s when most transport was walking, horse drawn or steam powered trains.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    Yeah, I heard that long ago there was a news paper that had
    the headline:


    They were asked to retract that statement so they did with
    another headline:


    Maybe we’ll be hearing more about LENR from our politicians after they rearrange their portfolios.

  • Brent Buckner

    Indications are that the e-cat does not use palladium. There’s so much nickel available that the amount required for an e-cat revolution may not drive price significantly.

  • Brent Buckner

    Well, we’re pretty sure that Bill Gates knows of ENEA’s program, and so it’s not a big stretch to think that Warren Buffet does. Anybody that the Woodford and Cherokee groups deal with may have paid enough attention to know. In the face of steep crude price declines Saudi Arabia keeps pumping. It may be only recognition of fracking, but I think it is also supported by giving some credence to LENR.

    • Omega Z

      LENR is many years from having any real impact on oil prices.

      If someone claimed to have a LENR car scheduled to come to market in 5 years, the price of oil will still be based on current supply/demand.

      Like Fracking didn’t cause oil prices to drop until after the oil product produced by fracking itself hit the market in abundance.

      • Brent Buckner

        Here are Mats Lewan and Ian Walker’s counter-takes on that:
        I think I’ll be leaving it to you to have a last word in this exchange if you want one.

      • bachcole

        Fracking has been around for quite some time, like perhaps like 8 years. We have frackers here in the Colorado Springs area. I just now noticed that my utility bill went down. I am on a plan where I pay the same thing for one year, and then they re-evaluate and I pay that amount for another year. So it is easy for me to see real changes rather than being confused by random changes.

        Since about 10 months ago I became too lazy to put my laundry on a line (to save money), so I expected my bill to go up. I just got my notice of the re-evaluation and the bill dropped 4.8%. I was shocked and happy. There is no other explanation other than fracking has brought the cost down. (I am in a public service non-profit utility district.)

        So it took about 8 years for fracking to bring the price/cost of natural gas and electricity down.

        • Alain Samoun

          Bachcole,I don’t think that fracking is the reason of lower oil prices,I think that general economy in the world and the deindustrialization of the US, correspond to a lower consumption of oil and are the main reasons. In the future,I see PV installations replacing quickly coal and then oil with the generalization of electric cars.

          • Observer

            Fracking is the cause of low oil prices because the Saudis have been intentionally over producing in order to lower the price of oil so that Fracking becomes uneconomical. The Saudis can still make a profit at $10 a barrel. Fracking needs at $30 to $50 a barrel, depending on the well.

  • builditnow

    It will be hard to prevent LENR+ deployment somewhere in the world once it is known about. Countries like Russia and Canada could really benefit, large cold land mass that could be opened up. Countries that stall progress will be in danger of being left behind.

    There is a lot of interest here in Silly Con valley around autonomous aerial vehicles. I have a friend deep in this business. They need a better power source. Try stopping them or someone from using LENR for this. Facebook has plans for a 747 sized solar powered drone to fly at something like 80,000 ft and deliver internet. Google has plans for high altitude balloons for the same purpose. LENR is a much better fit for this.
    What is unknown is how much longer can those against LENR+ keep it under wraps.
    Rossi is not in a rush, he has the funding and he wants to keep refining his products.
    He now benefits from the lull before the storm.

    It could be that Rossi will leave it to the LENR+ researchers to bring the news to the public as the delays are now to his advantage.

    If you want LENR+ sooner than later, support your LENR open experimenters via MFMP or directly, any way you can.

    • Omega Z


      I’m of the impression Rossi is in a hurry to bring this to market.

      However, You need to have all the issues worked out before you start mass production. If you have a bad roll out, Not only do you hurt yourself, but the technology as well. It’s hard to sell a technology if they customers don’t have faith in it.

  • HS61AF91

    Randal Howard “Rand” Paul (born January 7, 1963) is an American politician and physician.

  • Hi all

    One effect outside the cause of LENR on oil prices is the attacks on Paris and the subsequent closure of France’s Borders to both people and goods via air, rail, road and sea and calls for similar action in the US and several other countries along with the subsequent decline in holiday travel as well as international trade; which in turn will cause fuel use to drop and the price of oil to drop precipitously. I do hope these calls to close borders and end international travel and trade are scotched, but unfortunately too many hounds seem to be baying.

    Sadly walker

  • Albert D. Kallal

    Actually, battery technology is not really the limiting
    factor for electric cars. The REAL issue is the supply of electricity.

    In California, they quite much now have 3rd world electricity. Peak rates to discourage consuming during the day can hit 80 cents per kWh. That means to turn on your air conditioning it will cost you $15
    or more for the day! And at that rate electric for your car costs about double the cost and mileage you get when using gasoline in your car.

    The problem here is not batteries, but in fact affordable
    and a good supply of electricity and HOW to get it into your car!

    For every hour of charging your car (standard wall socket), you get 3 miles of driving (that’s without heat or air condition turned on in your car). So in 8 hours of charging, you get 24 miles of driving.
    That is VERY limited! It is rather moot that your batteries have a 300 mile capacity when 8 hours of charging gets you only 24 miles of driving! (without air conditioning!).

    Of course one can adopt higher speed chargers, but in a
    dense populated city VERY FEW people live in single attached housing (maybe 10, 20%).

    Attempting to upgrade the capacity of a typical parking lot
    or parkade not only has significant cost issues, but as pointed out without affordable electricity, then you are doomed.

    This is like promoting the use of hydrogen cars without a
    source of hydrogen! (it is insane!).

    In nearly every state where “green” electricity and
    programs are being adopted has resulted in HUGE HUGE price increases in electricity. And in places like California that already have shortages of water and electricity (like a poor 3rd world country or old eastern bloc counties), then they have no means to increase use of electric cars without FURTHER LARGE increases in poverty for their people who are ALREADY short of basic necessities like electricity
    and water.

    Batteries are not really holding back electric cars much,
    it really the supply of electricity. The resulting green initiatives EVERYWHERE have caused huge increases in the cost of electricity.

    So shortages of basic necessities such as water and electricity
    FIRST have to be solved in California. The idea that such places can afford and run electric cars is laughable, but also VERY cruel to the poor and hungry that is now so widespread as a result of soaring energy costs.

    Worse is these high electric rates in CA not only punish
    the poor and increase poverty, but at such rates, cars COST MORE than gasoline, and the result is transportation only a FEW elite can afford.

    We have to solve the electricity shortage and cost issues
    long before widespread adoption of electric cars can occur.

    In other words, when California solves it water problem,
    and then solves it lack of electricity problem (like all 3rd world counties
    that have such shortages of basic necessities), then MAYBE they can start talking about widespread adoption of EV’s.

    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

  • Albert D. Kallal

    Because it does not address the issues I pointed out.
    Been busy, but that article does not address the shortage of
    electricity in parts of the country that have adopted green initiatives to discourage use of electricity.

    I mean for example, they ask the question what charging
    station you should purchase. Given that only 20% of people in populated cities live in houses, how are you going to purchase a charging station for your street or parking garage lot?

    So yes, I much disagree with most of the questions and
    issues they bring up in that FAQ because they ignore the supply of electricity and that how MOST consumers don’t have an option of purchasing a charging station when they live in an apartment.

    Asking what charging station to purchase when your car is
    sitting in a parking garage makes little sense – you don’t have that choice.

    For a smaller % of people, then yes, I much accept that an
    electric car makes sense – but significant hurdles exist for larger adoption. They also not addressed winter conditions that REALLY hurt battery performance, and a signification portion of the popular does live with rather cold winters.

    Albert D. Kallal
    Edmonton, Alberta Canada

    • EEStorFanFibb

      you put up another wall of text with assertions but offer no evidence.

      there is no reason why parking garages can’t have chargers installed.

      just googled “building codes EV car chargers”. it’s becoming code in many regions that parking garages and the like be built EV charger ready. and older parking structures can be be retrofitted when the demand for charging warrants it. Meanwhile millions of people with garages can make up the bulk of the first wave of EV owners.