Rossi: Production for 1 MW Plants Should Start ‘Within One Year’ (If Current Test Succeeds)

The big question with any highly expected new product is always: how long before we can see this technology on the market. People have been asking this for years about the E-Cat, and early expectations of a quick appearance of a domestic E-Cat on the market have not materialized. Andrea Rossi has previously said that if this current test goes well, that commercialization of the technology will start in March.

However, Rossi has said that commercialization does not mean products on the market immediately — first manufacturing facilities, production lines, and outsourcing systems need to be organized (he has says that plans are already in place). That sounds like a lot of work — so how long before we actually see E-Cats for sale?

Here’s a Q&A from the Journal of Nuclear Physics today on this issue:

Rosie
November 23rd, 2015 at 7:44 PM
Dr Andrea Rossi
If the tests go well, when do you think the E-Cats will be available for the public?
Regards,
Rosie

Andrea Rossi
November 24th, 2015 at 7:39 AM
Rosie:
The 1 MW E-Cats should be start to be produced in series within 1 year. The domestic remain under scrutiny of the safety certification, whose times do not depend on us.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

We should remember also that he is talking here about the low temperature E-Cat plants that are used for heating only. Electricity production from the E-Cat is, as I understand it, still in the R&D phase.

I think we should be careful about taking this as a firm prediction. AR is obviously enthusiastic about his technology, but I think there are plenty of reasons why delays might happen. And first we need to get through the test, where success is still not guaranteed. But a 1 year projection from Rossi here does give us a ballpark idea of what his hopes and expectations might be.

  • Jarea

    I don’t know if this is good or bad news. I was hoping that the technology would be released next year and now he says we have to wait until 2017 (F9). This is more and more time. I just hope there are some public announcement from IH and Darden after the test. That would give us some encouragement because these continuous delays only appear
    suspicious.

    • BillH

      Not quite F9, from this statement if the test is negative I think we can assume that any marketable product would be pushed off much further into the future. If another year long tests is proposed then 2018 would be the earliest start given a positive result.

      • Omega Z

        It’s entertaining to speculate as long as one keeps in mind, the test is not completed yet.

        • Agaricus

          Yep, but it’s also worth bearing in mind that regardless of the ‘contractual’ success or failure of the pilot plant, Rossi seems to have proven that his cold fusion reactor works (between failures). So the prize is already in hand – the rest is engineering.

          • BillH

            And cost! With all this added complexity now being introduced into the equation it may be that the E-Cat is not competitively priced after all. Maybe we just have to wait for the price of oil to head back towards $100 a barrel?

  • Jarea

    I don’t know if this is good or bad news. I was hoping that the technology would be released next year and now he says we have to wait until 2017 (F9). This is more and more time. I just hope there are some public announcement from IH and Darden after the test. That would give us some encouragement because these continuous delays only appear
    suspicious.

    • BillH

      Not quite F9, from this statement if the test is negative I think we can assume that any marketable product would be pushed off much further into the future. If another year long tests is proposed then 2018 would be the earliest start given a positive result.

      • Omega Z

        It’s entertaining to speculate as long as one keeps in mind, the test is not completed yet.

        • Yep, but it’s also worth bearing in mind that regardless of the ‘contractual’ success or failure of the pilot plant, Rossi seems to have proven that his cold fusion reactor works (between failures). So the prize is already in hand – the rest is engineering.

          • BillH

            And cost! With all this added complexity now being introduced into the equation it may be that the E-Cat is not competitively priced after all. Maybe we just have to wait for the price of oil to head back towards $100 a barrel?

  • Private Citizen

    Wonder what measures Leonardo is taking to procure domestic safety certification? Is there a formal process? Must be.

    • Observer

      Certification needs to be done on the manufactured product, not on a hand made prototype.

      • Private Citizen

        Sounds chicken and eggish. Why tool up and mass manufacture a product that has no certification? Do you have a link to this legal mandate to test only “manufactured” products?

    • Omega Z

      PC
      The domestic safety certification’s will be harder to obtain due to the fact no such technology predates it for reference.

      As according to Rossi, The Lt-reactor has been certified for industrial use. However, a production version will also need a separate certification. This should mostly be a formality as technicians will be present or quickly accessible should needs require it.

      Data obtained from these Industrial systems will be used to determine certifications for the domestic units. This has been the process for many domestic products like microwave ovens & such. I would give it about 2 years.

      That said, The only important thing is for Rossi’s pilot plant to be a success. After that, all else will follow in a natural progression as with any other product. Without that success, nothing else can happen. Period.

  • Private Citizen

    Wonder what measures Leonardo is taking to procure domestic safety certification? Is there a formal process? Must be.

    • Observer

      Certification needs to be done on the manufactured product, not on a hand made prototype.

      • john M

        Nine months into testing the current iteration seems long enough to expect several aspects of the final version to be produced for testing. Why wait?

      • Private Citizen

        Sounds chicken and eggish. Why tool up and mass manufacture a product that has no certification? Do you have a link to this legal mandate to test only “manufactured” products?

    • Omega Z

      PC
      The domestic safety certification’s will be harder to obtain due to the fact no such technology predates it for reference.

      As according to Rossi, The Lt-reactor has been certified for industrial use. However, a production version will also need a separate certification. This should mostly be a formality as technicians will be present or quickly accessible should needs require it.

      Data obtained from these Industrial systems will be used to determine certifications for the domestic units. This has been the process for many domestic products like microwave ovens & such. I would give it about 2 years.

      That said, The only important thing is for Rossi’s pilot plant to be a success. After that, all else will follow in a natural progression as with any other product. Without that success, nothing else can happen. Period.

  • bfast

    I sure was hoping that they were gearing up for production already. ‘Was hoping that the LENR revolution would start sooner. But reality has its limitations.

    • f sedei

      Serious competition to Rossi may grant your, and our, wish. If and where will it come from. I have no such competitor in mind at this time. Maybe another genius out of the box? We shall see.

  • bfast

    I sure was hoping that they were gearing up for production already. ‘Was hoping that the LENR revolution would start sooner. But reality has its limitations.

    • f sedei

      Serious competition to Rossi may grant your, and our, wish. If and where will it come from. I have no such competitor in mind at this time. Maybe another genius out of the box? We shall see.

  • The main thing now is for LENR to get headlines and become an open topic of mainstream political discussion in regards to total energy policy. If the current test is positive and the television networks carry a news conference showing a factory owner testifying that the E-Cat works in real life industrial situations, that will help allot. A year long test would be difficult to refute on the basis of a measuring error.

  • The main thing now is for LENR to get headlines and become an open topic of mainstream political discussion in regards to total energy policy. If the current test is positive and the television networks carry a news conference showing a factory owner testifying that the E-Cat works in real life industrial situations, that will help allot. A year long test would be difficult to refute on the basis of a measuring error.

  • clovis ray

    Hi, you a’ll.

    The 1 MW E-Cats should start to be produced in series within 1 year after f9. wow,

    Nice to hear, Sir i think you have said it before, but still.

  • clovis ray

    Hi, you a’ll.

    The 1 MW E-Cats should start to be produced in series within 1 year after f9. wow,

    Nice to hear, Sir i think you have said it before, but still.

  • K. Som

    It is another year lost. It seems.that A.R. is so proud on his achievement i.e. the patent, that he feels save with his invention. Feeling save is sometimes quite dangerous.

    I repeat to say, that giving the core reactors into the hand of peole who know how to handle heattransfer and to drop all of these DIY plumbing efforts would have made it a much quicker breakthrough.

    • Omega Z

      Another who doesn’t realize that this is not just a one man band.
      Rossi is working with a team, 1 of which is an engineer employed by Industrial heat.

      Note also that this is a 1 year test & regardless how many people you involve, 1 year is still going to be 1 year.

    • Owen Geiger

      Product development takes time. Relax. High profile investors have invested 50-60 million into this so obviously there’s a well qualified team working with Rossi.

  • Omega Z

    Another who doesn’t realize that this is not just a one man band.
    Rossi is working with a team, 1 of which is an engineer employed by Industrial heat.

    Note also that this is a 1 year test & regardless how many people you involve, 1 year is still going to be 1 year.

  • Owen Geiger

    Product development takes time. Relax. High profile investors have invested 50-60 million into this so obviously there’s a well qualified team working with Rossi.

  • Kendall Evans

    Impatience is natural, but we need to be realistic. We are not the ones developing the E-cat and its successors. We are, essentially, an audience, hoping for positive results. Which can be, as Rossi says, positive or negative. We can only hope for the best.

  • radvar

    Considering the apparent variances of performance within the current 1MW “pilot” unit, and the number of support staff required to keep it running at the required capacity, I think it would be quite an accomplishment to achieve “production in series” within a year.

    LENR is looking at least as much like an engineering problem as a science problem. Brillouin’s experience reinforces this; they aren’t exactly shoving them out of the factory like
    Model-T’s.

    • Omega Z

      Brillouin is stuck around COP>4.
      It would be a lot easier to get VC funding to scale up if they can increase the COP.

      As to The 1MW plant. The test is to work out issues before production starts.

  • Allan Shura

    The solar industry seems not worried the IEA says more than 50% solar worldwide for energy by
    2050. Some claim a cost as low as 5 cents a watt to produce and the consumer can own their own.

  • Allan Shura

    The solar industry seems not worried the IEA says more than 50% solar worldwide for energy by
    2050. Some claim a cost as low as 5 cents a watt to produce and the consumer can own their own.

  • Agaricus

    After completing the test run (phase one), answers need to be found to the unreliability problems that AR has referred to, and modifications or even redesigns need to be tested under stress (phase two – 6 months minimum, more likely a year upward).

    As well as eliminating (as far as possible) the apparently unacceptable rate of failure of some component or components, a pre-production prototype then needs to be designed, built, tested and modified A/R (phase three – 6 months minimum, more likely a year plus).

    And finally (1-2 years plus from end of test), “The 1 MW E-Cats should be start to be produced in series”. This of course doesn’t mean mass production in automated factories, or even batch production in semi-automated production lines, it just means that ‘phase three’ units will be replicated one by one (series production) by manual assembly, probably in the same facility that produced the development prototypes.

    Unless competition begins soon, cold fusion will have little or no impact on political thinking for many years, because the few CF reactors in operation will continue to be working without fanfare at a few private premesis, and the world will remain largely unaware that there is a revolution taking place – very quietly.

    • Jarea

      Sorry but we are talking about a very compact device which has been optimized to 4 reactors. In the end, it is a boiler and the mechanical and heating parts should be available in a short time. Besides, this test period should have tested most of the changes. For me, delaying the production means more pollution and problems to the earth. This technology should have been ready in 2011.
      I agree to your last paragraph, without competition you can always delay and delay to try to have the best piece in the market. However, the world do need this technology. I think this is the best discovery ever. To be greed or perfectionist seems for me a low profile with the rest of the world.

      • Agaricus

        Generally agreed, although I think you may be underestimating the work needed to develop a working prototype into a commercial product. The thing we can probably agree fully on is that the cautious, step-by-step development model that IH has apparently embarked on could potentially stretch out indefinitely before a reactor design is considered to be ready for the mass production so urgently required.

        Much better to release the ‘Model A’ (first version) as is, or just refine it to ‘Model T’ standard for production, than to wait for the Ecosport or S-Max design to be finalised. Unfortunately this is probably not how things will pan out.

  • Obviously the continuous monitoring and patching of failures that seem to have characterised the pilot plant’s test period (phase one) are completely unacceptable in a commercial product, so after completing the test run, answers need to be found to the unreliability problems that AR has referred to. This will mean further modifications or even redesigns of the pilot plant that will each need to be re-tested under stress for each change (phase two – 6 months minimum, more likely 18 months or more).

    As well as minimising the rate of failure of some component or components, a simplified and optimised pre-production prototype incorporating all lessons learned, and designed to operate with minimal supervision and maintenance, then needs to be designed, built, tested and modified A/R (phase three – 6 months minimum, more likely a year or more). The only way to shorten this step would be to ‘multi-track’ phase two by running many promising variants in the field in parallel, and selecting the most successful design for finalisation. However there is no indication in Rossi’s comments that IH have any inclination to go down such a path.

    And finally (1-3 years plus from end of test), “The 1 MW E-Cats should start to be produced in series”. This of course doesn’t mean mass production in automated factories, or even batch production on semi-automated production lines, it just means that ‘phase three’ units will be replicated one by one (series production) using manually machined and bought-in components and manual assembly, probably in the same facility that produced the development prototypes.

    Unless market competition begins soon, cold fusion will have little or no impact on political thinking for several years at least, because the few CF reactors built and installed will continue to operate without fanfare at a few private premises, and the world will remain largely unaware that there is an alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear fission. The technology desperately needs to escape into the wild, where thousands of minds can quickly develop it along hundreds of parallel paths, and explore all the theoretical nuances.

    • Jarea

      Sorry but we are talking about a very compact device which has been optimized to 4 reactors. In the end, it is a boiler and the mechanical and heating parts should be available in a short time. Besides, this test period should have tested most of the changes. For me, delaying the production means more pollution and problems to the earth. This technology should have been ready in 2011.
      I agree to your last paragraph, without competition you can always delay and delay to try to have the best piece in the market. However, the world do need this technology. I think this is the best discovery ever. To be greed or perfectionist seems for me a low profile with the rest of the world.

      • Generally agreed, although I think you may be underestimating the work needed to develop a working but failure-prone prototype into a commercial product. The thing we can probably agree fully on is that the cautious, single strand, step-by-step development model that IH has apparently embarked on could potentially stretch out indefinitely before a reactor design is considered to be ready for the mass production so urgently required.

        Much better from several points of view to release the ‘Model A’ (first version) as is, or just refine it to ‘Model T’ standard for production, than to wait for the Ecosport or S-Max design to be finalised. Unfortunately this is probably not how things will pan out.