Season’s Greetings — The Fossil Fuel Age Has Ended! (Ian Walker)

The following post has been submitted by Ian Walker

Hi all,

For me, the key factor for confirmation has always been: how would major businesses, with business intelligence apparatus that would dwarf that of many first world nations, react?

Some of them have moral and ethical views on economic shock, and all want to keep their money!

Looking into a forest of NDAs and companies trying hard not to let their business rivals see what they are doing, means you have to stand back and look at the whole market; watching a dark forest for sign something is afoot.

Like birds flushed from the trees and the sudden silence of the animals they are the sign that something has frightened those who who inhabit the forest, the quiet sale of assets, the unexpected decline in markets, the inexplicable strategy changes, the lack of push-back on political market restrictions; these are the things you watch for when a Black Swan flies.

Big Oil started abandoning owning oil fields in 2011. The Banks have been shorting oil since before 2013.
Siemens had dropped their whole Nuclear industry and their $33 Billion Wind and Solar industry by 2012, and they were not the only ones; yes others took their perches, but the old birds know, and are happy for other to fall prey, while they survive.

The Old Money sold their Fossil Fuel shares. Big Oil joined the climate change lobby. In 2014 the Black Swan flew and leaks of the Lugano report triggered the slide.

The Saudi Arabians now want all the market share of oil, for a managed decline in the old energy sector, to slow the take up of the Black Swan, and to kill off as many competitors as possible for the future lubricant and precursor chemical market, replacing high margins on low volume with low margins on high volume means the profits remain high, ask Walmart or Tesco.

Old man coal is in a terminal drop, even natural gas is feeling the cold. Something has killed off the whole old energy sector, Fossil, Solar, Wind, Nuclear Fission; the lot, all kaput! World leaders have agreed binding pollution targets in record time, whoosh a couple of days, deal signed, home for Christmas.

The end of the one year industrial test is but a few months away. The markets have already priced it in.
The worlds economy is ready.

Seasons Greetings to you all. The Fossil Fuel Age has Ended. Welcome in The New Fire!

Kind Regards walker

  • Leonard Weinstein

    Even if the e-cat and other LENR systems are as practical as now seems likely, it would take many years to replace most of the old technologies like oil and gas. In addition, the generation of electricity in large scale (hundreds of MW or more) may not be most economical with the LENR. Small locally distributed nuclear generators are likely to take up some of the slack (this minimizes distribution distance limits and large grid sensitivity). I think LENR now seems likely to be a major player in the long term, but changes were needed anyway due to the finite fossil fuel total quantity in the ground.

    • Omega Z

      Yes, It will take 40/50 years to transition. Barely in time to replace the limited fossil energy that would be in short & expensive supply by that time.

  • Bob Greenyer

    If we had a replacement engine for automobiles – then it would take nearly 20 years of flat-out work of all the car plants on earth to replace the rolling stock. One could argue that LENR may reduce the cost of processing Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oil bringing production costs to lower than current ME and Russian oil – this would keep the rolling stock running and be likely far cheaper than synthesising the stuff using LENR energy.

    If LENR is proved practical – then there must be international legislation to create synthesised HCs which would be near carbon neutral otherwise its emergence may be counter productive to the aim by some parties to keep carbon locked in fossil deposits.

    • Hi all

      In reply to Bob Greenyer

      A large proportion of a products price is expected future value.

      As to Cars. Most vehicle manufactures have already positioned them selves for LENR by producing Electric Vehicles. Before 2011 most were saying electric cars were niche market; now they all have a range of electric vehicles, on market tested and ready to go. I think it would take as little five years to replace the whole market. It is after all in their interest to do so.

      They will get nation states to change the laws to allow it, they have even tested the process, you do remember the car scrap-ege deal don’t you? The recent climate agreement paves the way.

      I think this revolution will happen astonishingly fast.

      Kind Regards walker

      • Agaricus

        There was a car scrapage scheme here in the UK, too – a small bonanza for car dealers but not much more (funny how these things move in lock-step in the US and UK). It was basically unsuccessful because the cost of replacing a car, particularly a diesel car, was far greater even with the ‘trade-in’ than the cost of continuing to run the older car.

        At about the same time though a new regime of car taxation (an annual cost here) massively favoured new cars that claimed better ‘green’ credentials while penalising older (pre-2001) cars. This was far more successful at getting rid of older cars than the scrapage scheme – despite the fact (as we now know but could have surmised at the time), vehicle manufacturers were quite creative with their pollution and ‘CO2 emission’ figures, and the improvements vis a vis older cars were considerably less than the politicians seemed to imagine. It has also – as could easily have been predicted – had the effect of greatly reducing govt. revenues from ‘road tax’ now that the majority of pre-2001 cars have gone.

        It does prove that sticks beat carrots any day though, and as Larry J suggests, an atmosphere of manufactured social stigma combined with painful taxation of HC fuels will do the trick quite quickly.

      • Omega Z

        By 2020, they’ll have a world capacity of around 1 million batteries a year for electric cars for an 84 million cars a year market. To supply that many vehicle batteries, you need another 160 Mega battery plants. A lot more lithium mines that can take 15/20 years to setup & the facilities to process all that lithium before it can be used.

        Tesla’s Mega plant is scheduled to start production sometime in 2017. They Hope. It wont be completed until 2020. There also depending on a Lithium mine in Mexico for much of their Lithium which last I knew isn’t quite ready for production yet. Bob’s 20 year quote is being optimistic. It will take a long time…

      • Bob Greenyer

        The transition to e-bikes in China cities was very fast granted.

        When I went to China 25 years ago – there were LITERALLY NO cars on the roads of Beijing (or anywhere else for that matter) – except the government limos.

        Still, despite all the stories of grid locked roads now – after a quarter century, there was only 113cars/1000people in 2014s China – In the US it is over 800.

    • LarryJ

      In Canada the plunge in the oil price has had very little effect at the pump. Refined products are still very expensive. Gas in Vancouver is $1.22 / litre. Part of that can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar but I don’t think the Canadian government will let fuel prices fall. On the one hand they need to replace lost oil revenue and on the other they want to discourage fossil fuel use. Once a viable alternative like cold fusion becomes common knowledge carbon taxes here will become brutal. They did it with cigarettes and they will do it with oil. Rossi still has 2 years to develop his ecat-x into a total home power solution and I think that will promote quick and wide spread adoption of the electric car. Used fossil fueled cars will be dirt cheap but fueling them, if you can find a gas station, will be daunting as will the social stigma associated with driving one. I would expect that to happen within 5 years of the introduction of the new fire. New technologies become ubiquitous very quickly nowadays.

      • Omega Z

        It will take years just to ramp up production of Electric cars.
        When Tesla’s Mega battery plant is fully completed in 2020, world capacity to supply electric cars will be about 1 Million per year. About 160 more of these $6 billion each Mega battery plants will be needed to meet the demand of 84 million plus new cars a year. Bob is being optimistic with the 20 year time frame.

        • builditnow

          With a small LENR turbine generator in a Tesla, you can have fewer batteries. Next step is to do away with the electric drive and batteries and directly power the car with an LENR turbine. No need for all those batteries. The challenge could be to manufacture all those turbines.

    • LuFong

      With the emergence of self-driving cars and the fact that cars are parked 95% of the time, we may not need nearly as many new cars as the current stock. That is my hope anyway.

      • builditnow

        spot on, the reason that Uber has a team of around 600 working on self driving cars.
        Also, adding a small LENR turbine generator to electric cars (and some hybrids) looks “relatively” easy and quick.
        Next step, replace existing engines with an electric drive LENR setup, smaller batteries, larger LENR turbine.
        If Brillouin can get their COP to say 20 and temperature to at least 1000C, or Rossi can achieve rapidly controlled reactors, one can skip the electric drive and have a direct turbine engine replacement (or other heat based engine).
        If governments mandate a large tax on fossil fuel to be returned as rebates on replacement LENR engines, all the heavily used rolling stock would be converted first.
        Then, self flying “Uber” cars.

      • Bob Greenyer

        My figures were based on a paper presented at the cork peak oil conference, 2006.

        There was no smartphones and no toy drones then.

        I am a firm believer that there is everything you need in a toy drone / smartphone combination to drive flying drones large enough to replace normal cars – all we need is a power source dense enough.

        I have said before that it would be FAR easier to plan routing and collision avoidance in a 3D volume point to point for flying drones than for self driving cars – this could negate the need for roads in many cases. Could they really be pooled – as you say – so that extremely few actual vehicles would be needed… maybe for off-peak demand – the problem is SO many people use their cars at the same time… at the start and end of the working day.

        This raises the possibility of a swarm of passenger drones, hopping like a plague of locusts, from Asia to western Europe as the time zones shift. Similarly from East to West coast in the US – this would allow for some large scale number savings.

        Another option is to keep in place and enhance mass transit like rail and hyper loop. The drones would then act as spokes – like taxis …but it could be messy with 1000s of VTOLs by a train station in a storm.

  • “The Fossil Fuel Age has Ended. Welcome in The New Fire!” Spot on Walker. A good thought for Solstice. Seasons Greetings.

  • Mike Ivanov

    Impact of CO2 to climate change is a large scam, just like that old joke with hole in ozon layer.

  • artefact

    We have heared of many large companies who allready know about lenr. It is just science which refuses to adopt. But for the start they are not necessary.

    • Mats002

      Actually it is only official (not private) science in US and Europe which refuse to adopt, but as you say they are not necessary. But again MIT, ENEA, Iceland and the Swedish universities are in the LENR game but again in small scale and not known to average Joe.

      • LilyLover

        HIan, you’ve put the simple truth very eloquently.
        Yes, their action speaks louder than their lack of words.
        Their deeds reveal their intentions.
        They know oil has ended.
        They know they cannot resist progress.
        Time bows to no king. Every king is blown away by time.
        Merry Christmas to you!
        And, may this holiday season bring joy and peace to you.
        Yes, the time has come – it’s OK to buy the showcase for trophy. The E-Cat is ready.
        Humpty Dumpty has hatched on the wall and away it flew.

  • Job001

    While one can use different criteria to call an election, ballgame, stock price, or FF age, the FF age call is questionable at best. What one can do is observe that the “Something” killing the old energy sector investments is “Innovation” as:
    Wind at less than 2.5 cents/KwHr
    Solar costs complimenting wind costs and availability
    Storage costs dropping by half and alternatives tripling
    Broad grid stability with heavy RE renewable energy demonstrated
    Economics for countries good for jobs and balance of payments for RE
    Natural, hydrogen, and synthetic gas at cost low long term abundance

    Nuclear innovation to safer more efficient MSR Molten salt reactor
    Advancing fracking and horizontal drilling de-peaking NG and Oil
    LENR isotope ash and heat production confirmed ad nausea
    LENR Engineering, Safety, and marketing well underway
    Hot fusion innovation and frantic research efforts underway and the competition becoming very serious 10 years out

    While one can argue with the individual states of “Innovation”, one cannot but be amazed by the extent of total energy “Innovation”.

    • David Taylor-Fuller

      Couldnt agree with your analysis more. Looking at all the potential energy solutions that will be commercially available in the next decade and it is hard not to see an amazing future ahead of us. If it is accurate to postulate that cheaper more plentifyl energy creates more economic growth. Then we will probably see a historic economic boom after the new energy production comes online.

      After listening to all the contrarian apocalyptic talk that floats around. The thing that amazes me the most is that the world Really doesnt have any real problems it cannot solve with current technology. Take Water shortage. Give me enough energy and we can desalinate the ocean. Only reason we havent done it to the extent needed to quell all fresh water shortage fears is because the problem isnt bad enough for the people with the resources. Nuclear Fission alone could be used to provide more clean water than humanity would know what to do with it. Food, Humanities collective knowledge of argiculture is sufficient to reuse the land that we currently consider not farmable. Now granted we need to get our meat addiction in control but its hard to see how aquaponics, aeroponics, hydroponics couldnt provide humanity with more plant food than we could ever consume. Clean Air, simply adopt non carbon emiting energy sources. While we wait on batteries to get good enough we could make fuel from water and carbon dioxide. this would provide fuel for air liners and potenially cars.

      None of these are easy mind you. But neither of them are impossible.

      • pg

        Job and David, great analysis. I will just add that it is already possible to create water out of air. Check out the company SEAS that produces AWA modula. They can make 10000 litres of water a day out of a small container.

  • Brokeeper

    Scam or not it is a viable factor for a perfect LENR technology storm to merge. Beijing residence cannot differentiate Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) from AQI (Air Quality Index) when today’s levels are exceeding in many areas beyond the hazardous range of 300-500 while the rest of us are enjoying well below 50.

    “A new study finds that air pollution kills 4,000 people per day in China”. The Atlantic August 14, 2015:

    What do we think will happen once the 1MW plant test completes
    (assuming positive F9) and/or production starts? China will be the first huge LENR customer, mainly spurred by leadership survival concerns.
    Once the rest of the world sees their massive energy upgrades and perceive their ecological and economical advantages, there won’t be any country or industry eager to be left competitively behind, including Saudi Arabia (they know the of LENR timetable ticks).
    There is a reason for descriptive verbal usage ‘massive production’ by Andrea Rossi.

  • Omega Z

    In 30 years, Oil will be pretty much done regardless. With current production, it will economically be gone. There is on going research right now, today with the aim of gasifying coal for transportation. Because they know oil is running out.

    Bio-fuels wont do it. NASA did the numbers a few years ago & determined that if the U.S. used every last blade of grass, it would only cover 25%-30% of current use. A 1000 years of fossil fuels would only take Natural gas into consideration. That number isn’t accurate. When coal is used to supplement oil, coal will also soon be gone. Natural gas would be needed to offset the lack of Oil & Coal. Natural gas would be gone in 300 to 500 years depending on who’s numbers you use.

  • Agaricus

    Its not just the price of oil that is falling. Prices of other commodities such as steel and copper are nosediving. The oil price fall may have started as geopolitical gaming by the Saudis and others but now seems to be a part of a general collapse as industrial demand disappears.

    Some believe that this is an early warning of a general economic collapse like that of 2008:

    • Ged

      The collapse in global shipping agrees with you. World emissions have also inexplicably stalled out and declined this year (causing much confused head scratching), and it has nothing to do with climate alarmism or renewables. The housing market data keeps getting revised lower every month for the past five, while core comex has been negative for 10 months now, which only happens in a recession. All in all, the world economy has faultered and stalled up, which is why oil and -all- commodities other than precious metals have melted down in value (causing commodity traders like Glencore to begin decent into bankruptcy). Somehow, we are still afloat on a debt veneer due to quantitative easing (the sole reason, no core or real world production source), but that has also killed the middle class so it is no longer a majority, and it’s moved money out of real goods/services and tangibles into speculative finances and debt.

      Where we go from here is anyone’s guess as it hasn’t happened like this before. World economy has become afflicted with a dissociated identity disorder and no one knows what this means.

      So yeah, I wish Ian was right, but he got the symptoms but missed the terminal disease. Still, it does coincidentally make it much easier for LENR to enter the (disarrayed) market and take off.

      • Omega Z

        Hey Ged,
        You can’t help but love the propaganda & Spin they put on the data.

        Housing construction is up 50% year over year. Neglecting to point out that the previous years construction was near nonexistent if not out right negative.
        Unemployment is down again neglecting to point out that 20 million quit looking & are no longer counted as unemployed.

        However, You really know things are bad when the Major World banks reduce the number of managers by over 100,000 in a single year to keep the profits from declining. The Economy is tanking.

        People will blame capitalism & over productivity, but it has nothing to do with the situation. It’s the economic theory that governments are married to that fail, fail, fail again. None of the present theories work. Yet they continue using them over & over again. What’s that called again. Stupidity?

        Currency, Money, Gold, Bit coins are merely I.O.U.s passed from 1 to another that are actually(Or should be) backed by productive physical labor having been performed. If your going to give money to people for doing nothing, it must be taken from others in the form of taxes.

        That said, You have trillions of dollars of work that needs done. Millions of people out of work willing to do that work. You lack I.O.U.s. A Central Government should be able to print money for this purpose as long as they don’t abuse it. You merely add cash flow to a cash starved system paying people to do the productive physical labor. This cash has the same value as that, that is already in the system.

        That presents the final issue. Finding Honorable people to be in charge who will not abuse this power.

        • Agaricus

          It’s time for a global ‘New Deal’ based on mass changeover to cold fusion power, but I doubt that this is part of the bankster globalist’s plans, and I don’t think these people are about to allow themselves to be replaced.

          • Omega Z

            You overlook something. LENR & all it entails will require finance.
            The Banksters will smile all the way to the Bank.

          • Agaricus

            Eventually perhaps, but first they’ll probably crash the world economy again and skim a new round of ‘bank bailouts’ paid for by more years of ‘austerity’. It worked once – so why not do it all over again.

        • Warthog

          “…actually(Or should be) backed by productive physical labor having been performed.”

          Really?? That sounds just like the totally discredited definition of Communism. “Physical labor” is only one factor in economics, not the whole ball of wax. These days, mental labor is probably a larger segment of productivity. And whether you or others agree, “capital” (the ability to buy/build the infrastructure of production) is also necessary.

          • Omega Z

            “That sounds just like the totally discredited definition of Communism.”

            NOT AT ALL. I abhor the communist economic scheme. It is a race to the bottom economic denominator
            It’s about turning Keynesian economics on it’s head.
            Keynesian economics injects currency at the top inviting people to take on additional debt. Which by the way is just borrowing from the future economy & pushing the problem of a cash starved system to the future.

            By pushing Keynesian economics during downturns, they are admitting that the system is cash starved. Through the “QE”, they have injected at least $5 Trillion at the top. This has lead to the wealthy using this low cost easy cash to artificially inflate stock values among other assets. False economic value.

            Real economic growth is from the bottom up. Not from the Top down.
            Consider what a couple 100 billion$ in the energy sector did for the economy. The only real economic growth we’ve seen. Growth from the Bottom up. Imagine had they put a Trillion$ into the bottom. You have the economic cash infusion & growth. People who have jobs buy additional product, homes etc & that is real growth & more real work.

            However, to have real value in that currency, it needs to be of a tangible nature of which comes from “physical labor”. Which is the term you seem to take issue with. I’ll add some definition to this-“physical labor” in present day may include heavy equipment operators, Engineers(The Brain trust). Possibly even the involvement of physicists in some form. The primary thing is that the end project be tangible. Can be touched.

            Projects could be a subterranean continental transport system. A Space Rail launch system, Desalinated water distribution systems Things that benefit society in a physical form that is spread out & distributes jobs over a large area. It is to infuse cash into the system where it benefits everyone with the means to provide for oneself. Not a hand out that must come from someone else(Taxes) in order to retain value. Imagine if we all just printed money & produced nothing. There would soon be no roads of use, food or anything else of use. Those printed dollars would be useless.

            I have no delusions that this would fix all our problems, but it would help a lot. Nor is it as simple as it may sound. The amount of money in the system has to be kept in balance. But why do we take money from 1 to pay another healthy person to stay home when there is so much that needs done.

            Why do we practice an economic system for economics sake. This is about people. We should practice economics for the peoples sake.
            And note that debt has legitimacy. Buying a house, farm, business, a car, But there’s a problem when it’s needed buy groceries..

          • Warthog

            “The primary thing is that the end project be tangible. Can be touched.

            There are many things that produce (or reflect) economic value that are not physically tangible. Two quick examples are software and music. A CD of music is a tangible good, and reflects physical value, but nowadays, both can be delivered by “intangible means” (binary downloads).

            “QE” was more a reflection of “crony capitalism”.

        • I agree with your vision (mature economic vision, far from communist, keynesian ant anticapitalist popular today).

          My perception is that we are stuck in stupidity and bad solutions that cannot be sopped because too many people enjoy it.

          On as you say is patho-keynesian method. Keynes was san in proposing injecting cocaine in a stalled economy to be reanimated. But today it is a permanent mode, and we have killed the real nervous system of market economy : the price of time, the price of money.
          rates are negative which is absurd.

          another problem is that the anti-growth meme, malthusian meme, anti-poor meme, is spreading like plague.
          People whatever is their political opinion are driven slowly into a malthusian ideology…
          They consider production as evil… energy as toxic and evil whatever it is… population as evil whatever it grows or can be fed… foreigners as evil… refugees as costly and evil… international markets as roblems and not as solutions, protectionism and economic rents as assets and ot as unsustainability problems.

          The result is that we promote inefficient technology which destroys value, exploit people inefficiently, slow poor’s development.

          We prevent economic development, we push ideology to restrict technology and markets, migrations and mixes, …

          and guess why, it does not work… it makes things worse, make poor people poorer, or just richer less quickly, and middle class poorer, while the only winner is the economic rent owner, and those who succeed in catching them, but in fact slower than what good technology and sharing progress would lead.

          so like any group who consistently does the opposite to what should be done, we say we are victims of a conspiracy , blame the victims and the contradictors, say they try to conspire against ours genius ideology, and go further in the planned suicide, injecting more cash in the finance zombie, adding regulation and borders to make technology en entrepreneurship unable to help, .

          Hopefully it does not work perfectly because the system is broken.

          This apply mostly to the West and associated minions.

      • Agaricus

        As you say, it should now be easier than ever to introduce LENR to the market. Whether or not it is currently a factor in financial thinking, it begins to look like cheap and clean energy has now become the one factor that could mitigate the coming economic meltdown – IF it is introduced very quickly (we have 6 months max. in my estimate, for a ‘game changer’ to make the crucial difference).

        This is especially so because it would also answer the twin manufactured bugbears of ISIS/ISIL and ‘global warming’, the former by reducing the geopolitical incentives for certain parties to covertly fund, arm and otherwise support the maniacs of daesh, the latter by beginning the process of neutralising the lynchpin of the AGW meme – increasing CO2 emissions.

  • bfast

    I think it too early to call the fossil fuel age “ended” quite yet. It may have less than a year to go, but the wind down will not begin until the consensus is convinced that LENR is for real.

    Saudi Arabia’s actions of late are consistent with them believing that LENR is coming, but I actually think that they are not of that mind at all. I think they are doing the smart thing re LENR for all the wrong reasons.

    “The markets have already priced it in.” Nope. Not a bit. The business and financial world remains absolutely oblivious to our baby. No measurable pricing in of LENR has occurred yet. A few of us have pushed some investments around in light of LENR, but the 99.99% of investors don’t have LENR on their radar as a watch point, let alone as a “price it in” factor.

  • You can feel it in the air. Big oil peaked and is on the downslide. Intuitive investors know this and sold off their oil stocks. It is Yang collapsing on itself.

    • Omega Z

      It’s simple supply & demand.
      Demand is actually increasing. Oil consumption has increased since prices started dropping last year. Supply is merely increasing faster then demand. This is how the free market works when there is no external interference such as OPEC controlling supply.

      • US_Citizen71

        Oil was artificially influenced up by commodity trading and is now in the process of returning to normal. The price will yo-yo back and forth until it hits an equilibrium. Fuel in the form of shipping is in the price of virtually everything. Extraction of raw materials is highly effected by fuel prices which affect the price of everything made from them. When fuel goes down, the prices of many things go down as well. We are experiencing the hangover after the binge profit making of commodity trading from around the end of the Bush Presidency and ending a few years ago.

        • Omega Z

          Has nothing to do with Bush. Oil is an equal party commodity.
          The U.S. has used oil as one of the means of wealth transfer since the late 50’s, early 60’s. Another tool used has been tax policy to transfer manufacturing overseas. Beyond that is direct government funding of up to 50% to start new businesses overseas. Cap & Trade is a new addition to this policy.

          This ALL transcends political parties. Behind closed doors, they have similar goals & tend the same parties & clubs. The difference is what path to take to achieve their goals & how fast to implement it. What the public believes is just deception & distraction.

          • US_Citizen71

            I wasn’t intending to make it political I just don’t remember the exact year. The motivating factor was GREED, every political party has issues with that. Advancements in electronic trading caused increased market volatility and manipulation which combined with the slow death of brick and mortar stores killed by 9/11 and E-Commerce did a number on the world economy. E-Commerce by itself was close to being a black swan. But the increase in fuel costs caused by manipulation of the price of oil upwards by traders while OPEC wasn’t trying to gouge as they usually do caused the most long-term damage as it limited the amount of disposable income available in the world. Which in turn killed jobs.

      • Frechette

        All I can say my oil heating costs this year have dropped so I can afford to take my wife out for dinner again. That’s positive.

        • Omega Z

          Very few in the U.S. use heating oil these days. A couple percent during about 4 months. Even they are gradually being switched over to natural gas as the gas lines are completed.

          • Frechette

            I stay away from natural gas having heard reports of at least a half a dozen serious explosions. One that I remember very well occurred in Montreal in the late 1950’s. A three story apartment blew up leaving nothing but a huge crater in the ground.

            Another case in Massachusetts where a friend of mine came home from work to discover his house had been moved off its foundation by a gas explosion. Happily his family was not at home.

            Residential gas installations are time bombs waiting to go off especially in the winter months when frost heaves break pipes resulting in gas entering residential basements due to underground leaks.

            I’ll stick with oil but switch to LENR when the time comes.

  • Doug Cutler

    Many good points, but no geopolitics?!

    Also a quibble with point 4: except for some diesel in isolated markets renewables do not compete directly with oil since little oil-fired electric power remains. I would say Saudis are looking more at the inevitable advent of EVs with huge new investments from Ford and Porsche being indicative.

  • As less as we hear about LENR in the media, I guess the big business and oil industry has indeed LENR on it’s agenda, but they don’t see it as a serious risk for their business in the near term.

    So in my opinion the decreasing oil price we currently see has absolutely nothing to do with LENR.
    Even if we will see a big positive PR program of IH in the coming year, the oil industry will still have enough time to react and secure their profits until oil is only used for synthetic material production.

    • Agaricus

      Is it possible to hear less about LENR in the media?

      • Okay, I should have written “nothing” 😉
        I meant some specific media like business magazines, not the daily newspaper.

    • Optimist

      You need to keep in mind how and who lenr will affect. The large companies and oil rich states do not need the media to explain potential threats to them. If you look at the oil reserves and market shares you quickly see the following facts. Saudi Arabia has 10% marketshare with around 10Mbarrels per day. Theyr average cost per barrel is in the 15 to 20$ range, far below anyone else. Based on the current pump rate they have 70 years of reserves in known wells. Let’s assume that the SA do believe that they have 35 years left to get value out of those wells and that the demand will start dropping gradually in 15 years from now, based on any or all of the new nuclear programs that we know of, including LENR. This means that they minimum need to double their marketshare and possibly need to get in the 30%+ range. How would they do that? First you eliminate the competition by driving the price down below 40US$ were 80% of the oil business is loss making. Keep it there for 12 to 24 months or untill the competition has closed. Bring it up to 60$ or 70$ again for short enough to avoid any new investment and then back down if a serious competition is getting on its feet. Repeat until end of oil.

      • Omega Z

        The vast majority of U.S. oil can be produced at $15 to $20 a barrel.
        The $40 a barrel price that gets used a lot is in connection of new fields. This involves building access roads, new pipelines etc. However, once the field is opened up, each additional well dilutes that cost downward. Some shale fields can drill new wells at $20 a barrel. It really becomes a matter of what they are willing to settle for as far as ROI.

        That said, We really need an alternative source of energy for transportation & such. Oil as well as coal & natural gas are critical elements for many other things even if it would be 15% to 20% of today’s demand. If it becomes depleted, we will need to create an alternative & those alternatives may be less effective.

        Think of a plant that produces a chemical that cures cancer 100% of the time and then that plant becomes extinct. You may find an alternative, but how effective will it be. We should look at all resources from that point of view.

        Many once saw Oil as near limitless but today we can see it is not. We count it’s availability in decades today. We talk of Nickel & lithium as near limitless. But if we waste it, we may face the same issues of today in the future.

        • Frechette

          I would not compare the availability of lithium with nickel. There is a lot more nickel around than lithium. Also lithium is used for electrical energy storage. Nickel is used as an energy producer in LENR reactors.

    • Frechette

      The current drop of oil is Saudi Arabia attempt to put the the US frackers and Canadian oil Sands operators out of business. Saudi Arabia is afraid that their oil will become a stranded asset if the climate change lobby gets it way. Putting the North American oil producers out of business means the Saudis will be able to sell more of their oil even if it means less profits for them in the short term.

  • Energy density is extremely important.

  • Omega Z

    Pie in the Sky.
    Just understand these people are selling a dream to investors that involves a lot of hype. I wish I could recall the video of Larry Page about the future of self driving cars. Fully autonomous cars are a long way off yet.

    According to him, the computer architecture hasn’t even been conceptualized yet that can handle the task nor do they have any idea of the programing language that such a computer would require for a fully autonomous car.

    People navigate situations everyday at a subconscious level giving things little or no thought or recognition. Computers, same situation is stumped, confused and comes to a stop. A small branch with a few leaves blows across in front of you & settles & You drive through. The computer stops. It can’t tell if it’s a harmless inanimate object or not.

    And then theirs the prankster who steps out in the cross walk causing the computer to stop. The prankster then rocks back & forth causing the computer to shut down. Waiting for a human to tell it what to do.

    Ultimately, for many years, you will only have semi autonomous cars that will need a human component at the ready to step in at a moments notice. In a safety point of view, it will be better because the computer wont get distracted & will handle certain things in a limited way & alert the human when necessary.

    As to Uber, It’s best days may already be behind it. If the legal system strips the contractor status & instills employee status upon them they will be no more then another cab company.

    • HS61AF91

      Your nice rendition of what’s happened and why, synchronizes with the beating of my heart. It brings Christmas cheer in the form of a new beginning. Amazing the way that God’s good works will triumph over the enforced poverty in the current energy distribution system. Thank you for this great and exhilarating message. May I sort of ‘plagiarizer’ some of your words, should I have a chance to spread this good news at home and in comments. Many thanks.

  • I will love to see this discussion continue in 2016 which will be an exciting energy year. And specifically I agree with Ian in his ending—Seasons Greetings from me too, to everyone here at ECW. I think we will remember these days when this was the main, and almost only, news site covering LENR 🙂

  • Axil Axil

    The drop in all commodity prices worldwide is centered on the economic slowdown in China.

    • Frechette

      Axil Axil:

      Amen to that. All one has to do is observe the steep drop of the Australian dollar compared to the US dollar over the last couple of years. Australia was China’s main commodity supplier. China has throttled way back on these purchases. Stevens the dope at the RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) is trying QE (quantitative easying). The result has been domestic inflation for consumers due to rising cost of imports. This was foreseeable since Australia’s like Canada’s economy is based primarily on natural resource exports with very little domestic manufacturing.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    This is what cheered me up. Italian high school students getting some actual hands-on laboratory experience with LENR.
    Maybe some LENR clubs will pop up in places that are zoned for small laboratories.

  • Buck


    I think it appropriate to recognize that #4 implicitly includes LENR as a substitute for traditional energy sources.

    While the tech is still in development, its relatively imminent release impacts those who are decision makers and responsible for following the progress of fossil fuel energy substitutes.

    To propose that 100% of these decision makers are ignorant of LENR is untenable.

  • Zephir

    /* The Fossil Fuel Age has Ended. Welcome in The New Fire */

    This may be rather dangerous exaggeration of reality. Next year the price of oil may jump well above 200 USD/ barrel again – and will get doomed, because of our heavy dependence on fossil fuel supplies and because of lack of actual cold fusion implementation. And at least one third of oil is still used in plastic industry, where the cold fusion provides no alternative yet.

  • Omega Z

    Heat to electric conversion efficiency average is about 33%.
    Natural Gas Turbines in Co-Generation can exceed 50% with some very large generating plants peaking at about 60%. This is accomplished by extreme temperatures that 1st power the gas turbine resulting in enough high temp waste heat funneled to a second turbine generator. One heat source, 2 turbine generators.

    These plants are expensive. They also have this efficiency during peak demand, but in off peak, the 2nd stage usually isn’t in use and the efficiency drops back to about 30% conversion efficiency.

    There is the new Super Critical CO2 systems in development that are very promising that may easily average 50% conversion. Some believe these systems may be able to achieve as high as 70% or more efficiencies…

    More important, These Super Critical CO2 systems would achieve these efficiencies at small scale and without the co-generating. Gigawatt scale plants would not be necessary. Super Critical CO2 Power plants can be built as local/Micro-grid systems eliminating the current highly centralized grid of today.

    As to a Transition period, We mostly agree. Your 50% in 20 years is reasonable & “necessary” tho initially, it wont be that fast. It will take a little time to gear up. The- “NECESSARY” because the life cycle will probably be 40 to 50 years. If you can’t replace the old in that time frame, a total transition wouldn’t be possible.

    Jobs- Initially, you’ll have a net gain. Retooling, new manufacturing & such, but ultimately, there will be a job reduction in the energy field. However, Cheap energy will result in job gains in other or new fields unrelated to energy.

    None of this will happen fast. It will be a gradual transition. All good, because fast results in chaos. Jobs would be lost far faster then created. There would be total economic disarray. The vast majority of people would be concerned about their next meal. Not when they will receive their E-cat.

  • US_Citizen71

    I don’t generally disagree with anything you just posted. From your previous posts I assume you live in the US. If you think back to days following 9/11 you’ll remember how everyone stayed home. Denver, which is my home, is an international airport and hub for air travel. In the days following 9/11 it was silent outside not just from the lack of jets over head but from the lack of car traffic in the streets. No one went to stores and definitely not malls unless they absolutely had to, this lull in retail sales continued for months and in truth continued for a few years and to some degree to this day. At the same time E-Commerce began to take off as the big boys found a new way to sell without you having to go to them. E-commerce is definitely more expensive in total to the consumer than brick and mortar stores were, but people will pay for convenience, why else can 7-11 sell a loaf of bread at nearly twice the price of a supermarket. Small to medium sized companies took longer to adapt to this new sales model and many failed. Retail was just about done licking its wounds from that attack when the systematic manipulation of the oil market by traders hits. The housing bubble might have slowly eased down if the price to drive to work and other highly fuel dependent prices didn’t suddenly jump dramatically due to the near doubling of the price of gas over the course of just a couple of years. That one two punch to retail killed jobs and burst the housing bubble causing the world recession.