Commercial LENR in 2018?

It’s the last day of 2017 and a natural time to reflect back on the old year and look forward to the new. In terms of progress in the LENR field I have always thought that the most important thing is that the technology become commercialized in order to be put to use in the real world. So long as it stays forever in the laboratory it is interesting scientifically, but not of much practical use.

So has there been LENR progress in 2017? For me the answer is yes, but a big commercial breakthrough has not yet happened.

Research and Development

In terms of R&D, I think that it is very significant that Andrea Rossi has come to a point where he has settled on the E-Cat design that he wants to commercialize. For over five years he has been working with E-Cats that he was constantly working on, but which apparently were problematic performance-wise for one reason or another — and at last he seems to be satisfied with the E-Cat QX, especially after he has reached the Sigma 5 level of performance. With this decision made, he can now focusing his R&D efforts on miniaturizing the control system needed to operate the E-Cats, designing industrial-grade plants using the QX, and building the production system needed to get the benefits of economy of scale.


I think the most positive event that happened in 2017 for the commercialization prospects of the E-Cat this year was the settlement reached in the Rossi vs. Industrial Heat case. From all we learned from the documents produced in the court case the working relationship between the two parties was at such a low level that it’s hard to see how they could have successfully commercialized the E-Cat together. The initial contract between Rossi and IH was heavily in favor of Industrial Heat, and if Rossi had prevailed in the lawsuit, and was awarded the $89 million he sought, he would have likely been bound by the contract which gave exclusive commercial rights for the E-Cat to IH for North and South America, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia — a huge segment of the world’s economy.

In terms of E-Cat commercialization, the settlement wiped the slate clean and gave Rossi a fresh start with no restrictions on where he is able to commercialize the E-Cat. He admits now that he was naive in signing the IH contract and states that with the legal experience gained from the lawsuit his legal team is now prepared to help him negotiate better contracts going forward. Rossi states a new partner is now on board to help him start the commercialization process.

Is the E-Cat for Real?

After nearly seven years since Rossi first went public, that’s the big question that many people are still asking. I understand that many people still have at least some level of uncertainty, if not total doubt. The Stockholm presentation did not provide the final scientific proof that the E-Cat works as claimed, because it was not an independent scientific experiment, and that was disappointing to some. I don’t think that question will be conclusively answered for most people until commercialization is achieved, but speaking for myself, despite everything taking longer than I initially expected, I am as convinced as ever of the validity of the E-Cat. This was the year that I first saw an E-Cat for myself, and from the setup I saw it was clear to me that Andrea Rossi had been hard at work developing what has turned out the be the E-Cat QX. If the measurement instrumentation used in the test that I witnessed was accurate, then he has made a very important breakthrough in terms of energy technology.

So will 2018 be the year that the E-Cat finally hits the marketplace? Andrea Rossi says that this is his hope and goal, shared by his team and partner. He stated today on the JONP: “I am optimist about the fact that in 2018 we will reach the massive industrialization phase. In these 2 months after the demo at the IVA of Stockholm we have added much progress to the Ecat QX in the direction of its industrialization.”

I do hope he is right, but since these things always seem to take longer than initially projected, I am loath to make a prediction. We will just wait and see how things play out.

Other LENR teams

Of course Andrea Rossi is not the only operator in the LENR field. There are other teams at work such as Brillouin, Clean Planet, and me356 who claim to be working towards commercialization. Brilliant Light Power does not claim to be working in LENR, but they also are active in developing what could be a significant energy technology. They have said that they hope to have some products ready for field testing in 2018. None of these has broken out commercially in 2017. Possibly 2018 may see some progress.

  • CWatters

    Perhaps time to replace the IH Vs Rossi poll with one on the probability of an industrial product being “produced”. Rossi has been claiming 1MW industrial units have been available to order for some time so we will need to agree what we mean by that.

  • Bruce Williams

    As usual Frank, you have summarised the situation very well. I also share your enthusiasm for what Rossi has done and your hopes for the year ahead.

    • Frank Acland

      Thanks Bruce

  • Brokeeper

    This is a brilliant summary of events of the E-Cat saga with one more major hurdle to realize Rossi’s dream and to silence the skeptics – massive industrialization.
    One thing not often reported is his unpretentious recognition of others for the successes while taking responsibility of the failings:

    “Thomas Florek:
    If I reached what I reached the merit is also of persons like you, that gave us the energy of their enthusiasm and the force of their sustain.
    I am optimist about the fact that in 2018 we will reach the massive industrialization phase. In these 2 months after the demo at the IVA of Stockholm we have added much progress to the Ecat QX in the direction of its industrialization.
    Let’s stay in touch.
    We will succeed together and, as I said during the event of Stockholm, if things will go badly I will be the sole responsible, being the director, but if things will go well, the merit will be of all of you and of my Team and Partners. As it happens in a battlefield ( what we are doing is a veritable battle ) the commander is the responsible of a defeat, but if he wins, the merit is mainly of his Army, without which nothing could have been done.”

    I believe you have continuously promoted much of the energetic support Rossi receives from others through this very informative forum. Thank you for all your hard-journalistic work, Frank
    Happy and Hopeful New Year!

    • Frank Acland

      Thanks BK!

    • roseland67


      A working Ecat would silence skeptics

      • Omega Z

        ->”A working Ecat would silence skeptics”

        No it wouldn’t. It would only result in endless debate as to “IF” it really works. Some will even remain skeptical for some time after they are on the market(purchased and in use). They will claim people are misreading the data.

  • I’d say we are in the same situation like after demonstrations of ECat in Bologna in 2011 and we can wait for another progress five years without any problem. The only way how to accelerate the progress is to make your own research and demonstrations.

    • How Much Death and Destrution Awaits Us in 2018? For with their success in destroying ISIS in Syria, Hezbollah is in a fighting mood. Iran can easily destroy Saudi Arabia’s main export terminal of Kharg island. Iran can EASILY close the Straights of Hormuz. They don’t have to actually close it. They can just fire a couple of missiles and the insurance rates will be prohibitive for shipping. Over 70% of the oil flows through there. Any crash in oil deliveries would bring a huge spike in prices and possibly, set off economic collapse. Throughout the Western world politics has degenerated into fraud. No government serves the public’s interest. Hopes have evaporated that President Trump would restore the normalized relations between the nuclear powers that Reagan and Gorbachev made possible. US soldiers are being
      that Russia is an enemy with whom we are headed to war. Washington is arming Ukraine in order to enable an attack on the breakaway provinces of Novorussia. Threats against North Korea escalate. Even little Venezuela is threatened with military intervention simply because the country wants to control its own destiny and not be controlled by Washington and the New York banks.

      If The Saudi Arabia Situation Doesn’t Worry You, You’re Not Paying Attention: Unless you study it intensively, Saudi politics are difficult to follow because they are rooted in the drama of a very large and dysfunctional family battling over its immense wealth. What might happen if a civil war were to engulf Saudi Arabia. The price of oil would undoubtedly spike. In turn, that would cripple the weaker countries, companies and households around the world that simply cannot afford a higher oil price. Financial markets would destabilize as long-suppressed volatility would explode higher, creating horrific losses across the board. Somewhere between the second half of 2018 and the end of 2019 oil will dramatically increase in price and that will shake the foundations of the global mountain of debt and its related underfunded liabilities. Think 9.0 on the financial Richter scale.

      • LarryJ

        People who watch too much news think the world is a very dangerous and threatening place, People who watch no news at all think the world is a wonderful place filled with wonderful people and can’t believe the miracles they see happening around them every day. I get all the news I need on Rossi’s blog.

        • People in 1939 wouldn’t believe, that many concentration camps will be build in just three years and that 20 millions of people will die in next five years. Such a things simply happen in our world.

          • LarryJ

            There is nothing so wretched or foolish as to anticipate misfortunes.
            What madness it is in your expecting evil before it arrives!

            Seneca—Epistolae Ad Lucilium. XCVIII.

          • f sedei

            The first step Hitler and Stalin took before killing millions was to take firearms away from their populations leaving them defenseless. Don’t try that in America. These other countries with such strict gun control measures are at the mercy of their politicians and bureaucrats and at huge risk.

      • roseland67


        And a Happy New Year to you too.

      • спаситель русских

        Do not believe Kremlin propagandists

        • Pekka Janhunen

          Thanks for the healthy reminder.

      • f sedei

        Known fact: “You can not negotiate pathology.” Methods we are not privy to will be necessary in the attempt to resolve the seemingly impossible and dangerous North Korea and Iran issues. Keep your fingers crossed for success.

      • Bernie Koppenhofer

        What, you have no faith the Trump Administration is capable of handling a crisis?

        • Define “handling”…

          • Bernie Koppenhofer

            Trump’s approval is underwater on his handling of health care, North Korea, Iran, the economy, and taxes, according to the Fox News poll.

  • Bob Greenyer

    Happy New Year!

  • Alain Samoun

    Hey Frank!
    Happy New Year! Be the “E-cat industrial” with us this year

  • scottlshman


    I once worked for a company which made nuclear measuring devices. One of these devices was a scintillation counter which is an instrument for detecting and measuring ionizing radiation by using the excitation effect of incident radiation on a scintillator material, and detecting the resultant light pulses.

    We sent thousands of these to a government which had strict requirements regarding reliability. When they received the counters they picked three at random. If any one of these failed a strict test procedure they rejected the whole lot.


  • Optimist

    Happy New year.

    I was certain a year ago that 2017 would be the year of LENR. From the experience from last years you get to learn that this is a process but not an event. No matter how big or important you think a publication might be, it hardly causes ripples in the water.

    For me a strong replication and publication would be on the top of the wishlist for 2018. The underlying physics are still not understood and without that understanding Edisonal improvements are all we can hope for. We really need the floodgates of research grants to open into the field to make significant progress.

    It would be great if Rossi manages to get a working product out of the door this year. That’s however a big step from assembling a working prototype Something that takes even large companies few years to accomplish. Not taking into account that this release contains a nuclear reactor of unknown origin with zero experience in the field.

  • Andreas Moraitis

    Note that there is already a (in the broadest sense) LENR device on the market – Santilli’s neutron generator:

    Although it is not designed to produce excess energy, it might be an interesting object of study for researchers. BTW doesn’t the bluish glow in the tube look familiar?

    • Gerard McEk

      That would make a thorium reactor more simple to make wouldn’t it

      • Andreas Moraitis

        Not with the present device, since some 10000 neutrons per second are very little – perhaps good enough to produce a few nanowatts of power. If the effect is scalable it would still depend on the question how much energy the neutron generation consumes.

  • Gerard McEk

    Happy New Year Frank!
    Thank you for the nice summary.
    I really hope that the ECat QX will hit the market, but I do not expect too much because it seems so optimistic.
    Mayor issue it the control system. If the whole system (reactor plus control system) can hit the target COP of 10 or larger soon, then it might happen this year.
    Happy New Year to all of you too!

  • sam

    Drew G.
    December 31, 2017 at 5:12 PM
    Dr. Rossi:

    Three questions concerning the industrialization of the ECAT QX:

    1. Have you frozen the design for the final version of the ECAT QX to be manufactured on your robotic assembly lines?

    2. Have you identified the industrial suppliers of all materials and components needed to assemble the ECAT QX on the robotic manufacturing line?

    3. Do you have a new design of the controller using low power miniaturized components and circuitry?

    All of the above items must be in place if 2018 is to be the year for product introduction.

    Happy new year and a very successful 2018!

    Andrea Rossi
    December 31, 2017 at 7:25 PM
    Drew G.:
    1- not yet
    2- almost all of them
    3- evolution on course- strong progress after the Stockholm event
    Warm Regards,

  • roseland67

    Remember all of your “prediction threads” for the coming New Year?
    What happened to those?

    • Frank Acland

      If you would like to make a prediction, this would be the thread to do it on.

      • Hi Frank, I remember years ago someone saying on your site CF would not become comercialised until 2020.

        • Frank Acland

          Hi Barry, yes, I think more than one person has made that kind of prediction.

  • Ophelia Rump

    Please let us all know when the first robots for the manufacturing line have been ordered.

  • Christina

    Happy New Year!

    I am hoping that by 1-1-20 Dr. Rossi will have lenr commercialized.

    • kenko1

      I called 2025 several years ago.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    The E-Cat will be blamed for the coming ice age.

  • Dr. Mike

    Some comments on Frank’s statements:
    1. “it is very significant that Andrea Rossi has come to a point where he has settled on the E-Cat design that he
    wants to commercialize” Although Rossi has decided to commercialize some type of a QX device, he has not decided on the final design of a QX device as is evident from the answer to a question asked of him yesterday. (Question: 1. Have you frozen the design for the final version of the ECAT QX to be manufactured on your robotic assembly lines? Answer: 1- not yet)

    2. “he seems to be satisfied with the E-Cat QX, especially after he has reached the Sigma 5 level of performance” Rossi’s 5 sigma level of performance appears to be related to the ability to successfully turn the device on and off, rather than achieving a 5 sigma device reliability. There is no evidence that the reliability of the QX device has been properly investigated as would be required to introduce a commercial product that uses these devices.

    3. “he can now focusing his R&D efforts on miniaturizing the control system needed to operate the E-Cats,
    designing industrial-grade plants using the QX, and building the production system needed to get the benefits of economy of scale” These 3 tasks certainly need to completed as part of commercialization of the QX device, however, does Rossi have expertise to significantly help in any of these tasks?

    4. “He admits now that he was naive in signing the IH contract and states that with the legal experience gained
    from the lawsuit his legal team is now prepared to help him negotiate better contracts going forward” While Rossi has gained insight in negotiating contracts, my guess is that his new partner also gained insight from the failed IH contract. It seems highly probable that the terms of a new contract would demand more of Rossi than the IH contract.

    • Ophelia Rump

      How can he have settled upon a design without a reliable control system?

      • Dr. Mike

        And maybe a better question is how can the control system be designed without final specs on the QX device?

        • Omega Z

          ->”Question: 1. Have you frozen the design for the final version of the ECAT QX to be manufactured on your robotic assembly lines? Answer: 1- not yet”

          Mass production may dictate some modifications of the QX.
          Musks Giga plant has issues in production. This- all with the direct involvement of a battery manufacturer as a partner. Musk has burned through over a Billion$ trying to fix his production problems.

      • Gia’

        feedback or open loop … guess

    • Val K

      5 Sigma reliability of QX cannot be achieved before the robotic production is running. And when robotic production starts, Rossi will discover, that a lot of tweaks will be required to achieve reliability and uniformity of the device. So, considering, that so far Rossi has no controller, no robot, no QC procedure, it is a very long way to go to achieve 5 sigma. Well, although it sounds impressive, why is he so obsessed with 5 sigma? Can he deliver 3 sigma for the beginning? Since we do not know if there is any QC procedure in effect, and what is the current failure rate, even 2 sigma (e.g. 95 functional units out of 100 units made) could be blessing.

      • Axil Axil

        The QX is essentially a high intensity light bulb (HID),

        Long life: LED lights average 50,000 hours of life. Some LED lights last 30,000 hours while others last over 100,000 hours, depending upon the application. Fluorescent tubes are rated at an average of 30,000 hours, and incandescent and HID bulbs are rated at 1,000 – 5,000 hours.

        In order for the QX to run for a year, the life of its fuel load, it’s service life must extend to 9000 hours compared to the 5000 hours that can be expected from a long life HID bulb.

  • AdrianAshfield

    Happy New Year to all!

    Andrea Rossi is optimistic in hoping for mass production in 2018. So he should be, but I think 2019 more likely.

    • Omega Z

      This will be dictated by the learning curve. I believe it may be possible that a few systems will be in use in 2018, but mass production wont take place until sometime in 2019.

      This technology is different then what is currently used. It’s closest comparison is nuclear power plant fuel rods and even there is a huge difference in how QX’s will be used.

    • Frank Acland

      I asked AR about whether the first plants would be handbuilt, he replied the first plants would be robot built. The plan as I understand it is to perfect robotic production in a single instance, then duplicate. So I agree, 2019 seems a more realistic expectation.

      • AdrianAshfield

        The fact is, nodules of many QXs will have to be tested before mass sales. I was not suggesting factories but rather a small scale installation(s) of modules somewhere where Rossi could keep and eye on them, starting before the robotic assembled ones are ready.

    • Vinney

      Is is unfeasible that thousands of Ecat QX modules will be wired and inserted by hand.
      The Ecat QX capsule, cylinder or plates with be wired by a machine and fitted with Ecat QX modules by machine. The remaining of the first production run will be small volume production (either in-house) or contractors.
      Invariably the first units will be assembled by hand, to visually inspect (and possibly test) every component and minimise the risk of small errors causing failures.

  • Alan DeAngelis

    I wonder if we were just shown the tip of an iceberg at the Stockholm demo. Maybe D-Day will be in 2018.

  • Jas

    My main worry for 2018-19 is not that Rossi will delay the industrialisation but some yet unknown entity will seek to delay the industrialisation.

  • greggoble

    Thanks for another year and following developments towards commercialization of LENR. Great work Frank.
    I”m pleased with preparations made by NASA (original assignee of the 2010 Widom/Larson patent “Method for Producing Heavy Electrons” US2011025645A1″ and by NARI toward LENR utilization for flight. I expect more in 2018 including a phase lll report of the SUGAR project.
    I also look forward to commercialization of the Navy LENR works as Global Energy Corporation. They deserve close attention and should be inluded in any list of LENR teams Their claim is several construction contracts under negotiation for 250 MWe to 5 GWe LENR power plants around the world. I expect further disclosure by them through 2018. An old article documents their history… Pondering LENR Energy and the Global Energy Corporation GeNie Reactor.

  • Peter

    Right now LENR is called a disruptive energy because of the effect it will have on other energy sources that are now being used today. I am interested in the opinions here on this forum how they see the future for civilians in today’s energy-world and how they can react on this new development concerning LENR and the use in our daily life. For instance, is it useful to wait for LENR and delay investments in other energy sources or is this to early to ask of people?

    • PhysicsForDummies

      Peter, I think it is a bit early to delay other investments because Rossi has not demonstrated a working prototype. Without measuring input power to the E-CAT it cannot be shown that it has positive COP. Until he demonstrates a working device, we probably need to avoid putting our eggs in one basket. At least we have some others who are attempting real science (NASA, Mills, Mizuno, etc) The resistor test, along with Rossi’s flipping switches in the back during the test, insured that he showed absolutely nothing except for a power supply that could overheat. And even according to the cheerleaders here, Rossi’s presentation was not really even a demo, but something else (I guess I am not sure what it really was). Frank, what the people don’t like about the demo is not that it wasn’t independent enough, as stated in your earlier article. It is that Rossi refused to allow simple power measurements that would have validated or invalidated the test. There is only one reason he would have done that. You can guess what that reason is.

      • Dr. Mike

        I totally agree!

  • Frank Acland

    Frank Acland
    January 3, 2018 at 9:31 AM
    Dear Andrea,

    What kind of progress have you made so far in dealing with the cooling problems in the QX control system, and also in miniaturizing the controller?

    Andrea Rossi
    January 3, 2018 at 1:02 PM
    Frank Acland:
    We made strong progress. I cannot give the details, for obvious reasons, but I still can hope to start the industrialization of the industrial plants within the 2018.
    Warm Regards,

  • Vinney

    You referring to this patent.
    How do you envision it will be used to reach temperatures of over 1000 degrees C.

  • sam

    Frank Acland
    January 6, 2018 at 8:42 PM
    Dear Andrea,

    I’m trying to get a clearer understanding of your plans for the commercialization E-Cat.

    1. Will the presentation of the first E-Cat QX product be made at the time you announce the launch of the E-Cat QX?

    2. Where will the presentation take place?

    3. Will the presentation take place after the planned robotized lines have started operating?

    4. Where will the first robotized lines be operating?

    5. Once you announce the launch and make the presentation, will industrial products be available immediately to buy and use, or will customers have to pre-order them and wait for them to be built?

    6. Will the robotized lines be making only the insides of the plants (i.e. E-Cats and controllers), or fully functioning completed plants ready to use?

    7. Do you plan for expansion of manufacturing following the product presentation?

    8. Do you think it is realistic to expect for this to all begin in 2018?

    Thank you for your responses,

    Frank Acland

    Andrea Rossi
    January 7, 2018 at 2:47 AM
    Frank Acland:
    1- yes
    2- USA and Sweden
    3- yes
    4- USA and Sweden
    5- The launch will be made when the product will be ready to buy and use
    6- it depends on the kind of applications
    7- yes
    8- I dream of it and it is not impossible, albeit it will be very hard. But I am optimistic ( actually I always am and many times I am wrong ) after the developments we made from the Stockholm event up to now: I can assure you we have not spent this timeframe combing the puppets of my friend Thomas Florek.
    Warm Regards,

  • greggoble

    Lawrence Forsley Chief Science Officer

    gbgoble note: I look forward to GeNie22 deployment in 2018/19. This is from 2013. Over the past 4 years GEC has surely been advancing their robust LENR energy commercialization plan.

    Sêe YouTube “GEC Newcast 10 GeNIe22 Business Economics” Published on June 21, 2013.