Shell Surveys Future — Oil Declines, but no LENR in Sight

If Royal Dutch Shell is anticipating the emergence of LENR as a new power source for the future, they are keeping it to themselves. The company has just published a forecasting document called New Lens Scenarios: Exploring How Economic, Political and Social Forces Might Shape the Global Energy System and Environment over the 21st Century in which it looks at possible scenarios for the future of energy through the end of this century.

As you might expect, the document is not definitive in its predictions — and provides two main ‘lenses’, or scenarios for energy depending on how global economic and political forces turn out. We know Shell as a major oil producer, but the company actually sees a significant decline in the use of oil as the century progresses. In one scenario here’s where they see the energy of the future coming from:

Shell Energy Sources

Interestingly, in one scenario, Shell sees that by 2070 oil use for passenger transportation almost disappears:

Shell Transportation projection
Source: Royal Dutch Shell

By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads. By this time, electricity and hydrogen may dominate, and affordable, plug-in, hybrid hydrogen vehicles offer the ultimate in flexibility and efficiency.

Shell believes that solar could become the dominant form of energy by the end of the century:

From its position today as the 13th largest energy source worldwide, it grows rapidly, reaching fourth place behind oil, gas and coal by 2040, and continuing to the number one position in 2100. The sun rises to create solar energy dominance in the global system.

There’s no mention of even the possibility of a place for LENR in any of the scenarios in the document as far as I can tell. Maybe there’s a covert team at Shell watching its developments, or maybe it’s a technology that has been simply discounted altogether.