Many people following the LENR story are often convinced that it is the energy source of the future, and at some point will be ubiquitous. Given what we know of the E-Cat, I think that’s a fair assumption to make — but in making prediction and projections, we have to also take into account the pace that this change could take, and that there are very real practical issues to be dealt with — often legal and regulatory in nature.
On the Journal of Nuclear Physics today Andrea Rossi responded to readers on the topic of using LENR in aircraft. One reader asked Rossi if he was confident that major manufacturers of aircraft would put research into LENR for jet engines.
I think that the day of aeronautical applications of LENR is not close.
I think it will take not less than 20 years to see something operating in that field.
Not less, probably more.
Another reader said he strongly disagreed with Rossi about the above conclusion, and that LENR could be used for slow transport aircraft within 10 years, and was willing to bet a bottle of water on that!
Rossi responded (in part):
(you will lose, you will lose…have you the slightest idea of the timespan necessary to get the certifications – I mean safety certifications- for a thing like this in avionics ??? It is taking more than 4 years to make domestic boilres !!!).
I said 20 years because I am an optimist guy. I cannot forget that the CEO of Volvo, several years ago, told me that to apply LENR to trucks could take about 20 years; can you imagine how much time will be necessary for an aeroplane?
I would expect that aviation would be the most difficult area to get certification for LENR in, because safety is so paramount. Having an LENR-powered aircraft drop out of the sky because of some glitch in the power source is not going to be acceptable to anyone. So I would expect there would need to be intensive and long-term testing of LENR in aviation before any kind of craft would fly. However I don’t know how one can accurately predict timeframes at this point. Rossi is basing his projection on what the CEO of Volvo said — but we don’t know what the uptake of LENR will be by big engineering companies. I suppose super-intensive R&D could take place industry wide, which might make its adoption faster than Rossi expects.