In a number of recent comments on the Journal of Nuclear Physics, Andrea Rossi has stated that in testing with the QuarkX reactor, they are approaching ‘Sigma 5’ levels of reliability. I asked Rossi what this meant in terms of the QuarkX. He replied:
October 10, 2016 at 9:09 AM
In a nutshell, 5 Sigma is reached when the probabilities that an event happens the same way are very high ( 99.9999% ).
To have a detailed description of the calculus of Sigma 5 I suggest to google “Sigma 5 in Physics”.
Another reader, Daniel G. Zavela, followed up with this question:
I am trying to understand how you measure your test results toward the 5- Sigma level?
“When physicists announce that they have a 5-sigma result, that means that there’s a 1 in 3.5 million chance that it was the result of a statistical fluctuation over the spectrum of experiments they performed.”
In the case of the QuarkX cell are you measuring how many successful On/Off results you get with a single cell? Or are you measuring how many cells that you have made show a successful result?
October 10, 2016 at 9:26 PM
Daniel G. Zavela:
We have taken in consideration many parameters and calculated the integrals of their operation, so that we got millions of data. Then we calculated the probabilities of error coming from these data. From these calculations we have the Sigma.
Right now ( 10.20 P.M.) I am working with the Quarks and I am sure that my sensation that we are very close to Sigma 5 has good ground.
It’s interesting to me that Rossi is thinking of the results of QuarkX testing in terms of Sigma, which is basically a measure of the level of confidence that something is not a mistake. When Rossi is talking to people about his QuarkX or E-Cat there are obviously going to be skeptical and/or cautious responses, so I guess he is wanting find a way to quantify a level of confidence in his technology based on collected data. Maybe Sigma 5 is a specific goal they have set in the R&D phase they are currently in, or that someone has set for them.