I am feeling quite optimistic at the moment about the prospects for the Ecat. Occasionally I come across pieces of information privately that indicate that things are going in a positive direction in terms of Ecat development.
Unfortunately for readers here, some things that I learn that are shared in confidence, so I am not able to post about them publicly. I know that will be frustrating for those who are looking for any new piece of information about the Ecat. But I do want readers to know that I am still convinced that Andrea Rossi has developed a remarkable technology that has the potential to be really revolutionary and beneficial for the planet in many ways.
Having said all this, I don’t know whether Andrea Rossi’s business enterprise with the Ecat will succeed. I hope it does, but there are certainly things that can go wrong. I do believe that Rossi is still fully focused on making a major industrialization effort. At the moment, I believe it’s still all about the preorders. He is not going to risk producing Ecats and releasing them to the public because I think he fully expects them to be copied. In my estimation, the million preorder target is there for a couple of important reasons:
1. Economy of scale. If Leonardo had a lower preorder target – let’s say 100,000 units – it would cost them a lot more per unit to build, and therefore the retail price would have to be higher to cover costs and make a profit. I don’t know how much higher, but it could be enough to dampen demand significantly. The current price is $249 for a 100 W unit, which is still quite a lot of money for many people. Would people be willing to pay $1000 per unit, or maybe more, if the preorder target was reduced?
2. Reverse engineering. I believe the Ecat will be quite easy to figure out by reverse engineering experts and I think Rossi fully expects it to be copied soon after it is released. I think he wants the financial resources to be able to fight the battles that he expects will come following release, and therefore won’t release them until he has the money at hand.
From my perspective, the whole Ecat story has been very unusual, but also extremely compelling. I am sure many people have lost interest by now, and I understand why that would be the case. It’s still very much unsolved mystery in many ways, but one that continues to have my attention and I intend to continue to follow it here on ECW with great interest. There are times when there is really not much to report about, like over the last few months. I hope that will change before too long, but it’s hard to make any firm predictions.
So even after all we have gone through after all these years (this site started in 2011), I am still Ecat positive. Some people probably will consider me deluded, but I still have hope for this technology.