Technology shapes history and is intrinsically entwined in the social, political and economic destinies of nations. The emergence and proliferation of new technology is often the result of the necessity to adapt to new circumstances.
Energy technology is particularly important in the way the world operates. Modern civilization and economies are dependent on advanced energy technology, (and there is always a need for more of it), and those who control energy have a huge amount of influence across the globe. We have seen this year with the ongoing war with Iran how its influence on energy supplies has dramatically affected the affairs of countries in all parts of the world, whether they are involved in the conflict or not.
There have been, however, some interesting consequences from the restrictions that have been put on the flow of petroleum from the Middle East. It turns out that there seems to be quite a significant amount of demand destruction for oil.
In an article on the Rigzone website, which is used by professionals in the oil industry, JP Morgan analysts report an increasing decline in oil global oil demand:
“Globally, we track demand losses of 2.8 million barrels per day in March, 4.3 million barrels per day in April, and 5.6 million barrels per day in May, while acknowledging extremely limited visibility in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia,” the analysts noted in the report.
“Roughly 40-60 percent of the decline reflects weaker petrochemical feedstock demand, with the remainder coming from transport fuels.
[. . .]
“The decline does not appear to be the product of a formal government conservation campaign. There were no conspicuous appeals to save energy, no major limits on mobility, and no sense of crisis in daily life,” they added.
“Instead, it looks like consumers have made a quiet economic choice. Faced with higher gasoline, diesel and airfare, many seem to have shifted away from oil-based transportation toward cheaper, lower-carbon alternatives: electric buses, gas-powered trucks, subways, electrified high-speed rail, and electric taxis,”
In the face of the current energy crisis it seems that in many parts of the world there is a conscious decision to move as quickly as possible away from relying on petroleum products and move to energy sources that are less likely to be restricted by geopolitical conflicts.
An article published by Zero Carbon Analytics (https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/newsletters/permanent-demand-destruction/) reports a 40 per cent year-on-year increase in exports of cleantech products from China such as batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles. The same article reports that there is a rapid increase in the use batteries for grid-level energy storage purposes in Australia and Europe as natural gas consumption decreases.
These are just a couple of articles, there is lots of information available on this topic in the media. And it all makes sense. If there are attractive energy alternatives available, and it makes economic sense to do so, then why wouldn’t you try and lessen your dependence on petroleum products which can be effectively held hostage due to war and other kinds of conflict?
Right now, there seems to be a consensus that solar is the fastest-growing source of electricity worldwide today. Solar panels and battery storage are getting cheaper and are becoming more popular in both industry and for home use. The US Energy Information Administration recently reported that:
“U.S. solar developers are on track to install 43.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity in 2026, a 60 percent increase over 2025 levels and the third consecutive year of record-breaking additions. The figure is part of a broader 86-gigawatt wave of new generating capacity that, if fully built, would set an all-time high for a single year.
And that is just in the United States; this is a worldwide movement which does not seem to be slowing down. What does this all mean? I think it means that there is a definite appetite for reducing reliance on petroleum, and definite steps are currently being taken for doing so. There are other alternatives too, wind and nuclear being zero-carbon options that are often promoted as clean power. Both are well established technologies. But at the moment they don’t seem to have the same momentum as solar.
But what if a different attractive alternative to solar comes along? I am thinking, of course, of the E-Cat. I don’t think we are in a position to make predictions at this point since we don’t know what the price will be, what the availability will be and even whether the first available units will be operating in self-sustain mode. If the E-Cat, or a similar technology, does come online there will be lots of new things to think about and decisions to be made, but if it doesn’t, it seems to me that the solar-battery path will continue to accelerate and could eventually become a dominant energy technology.