Could an “E-Cat Anticipation Effect” Depress Economic Activity?

If you were planning to purchase a new car, and all of a sudden learned that in two years time a vehicle was coming on the market that would have double the fuel economy of today’s best models for a similar price, what would you do? Would you go ahead and buy a new car right away, or wait a couple of year until the superior vehicle was available? If it was me, I would probably wait. If my current car was roadworthy I’d plan to keep driving it for two more years, but if I really needed a new vehicle, I’d look for a cheaper used model to tide me over until I could buy the superior model. Widespread anticipation of a better car would mean trouble for the entire auto industry.

Such a scenario is not dissimilar to the situation that some people are finding themselves in right now regarding the E-Cat. They want to make their homes or businesses more energy efficient and may have been considering a new heating or cooling system, or perhaps installing solar panels to help provide electricity and hot water. When they hear that in a few years time a much more efficient heating system (and perhaps electricity generation) may be available they could decide to wait until E-Cat units are available.

As news of the E-Cat spreads, as it seems to be doing right now, this “E-Cat anticipation effect” could be magnified — which would mean trouble for the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) industry, both for the manufacturers and the installers of HVAC systems.

Of course all we have to go on regarding availability of E-Cat units are the projections given by Andrea Rossi who says that home-based E-Cats won’t be available for another two years. That timeline could be longer, or shorter based on a number of factors — particularly the actions of regulatory agencies, since Rossi has said he can’t put anything on the market that is not perfectly legal.

Is anyone out there basing purchasing decisions on your anticipation of E-Cat availability?

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