Making a Dent

Andrea Rossi has in the past talked about wanting to help bring about an energy revolution with his technology, but lately he has been sounding more circumspect in his predictions. He said recently that ” it will not be a revolution, but an evolution through series of integrations.”

I often wonder what it might take to make a dent in the way we power the world even if the E-Cat and Hot Cat work just as  Andrea Rossi projects. Yes, he now claims to have a partner who will be able to help in the mass production of his plants — but even the production of 100,000 1 MW plants, (which would probably take a number of years to put into operation) either hot or warm, is not a very significant number compared to the amount of energy produced worldwide from a variety of sources. The International Energy Agency estimated that in 2008 the world consumed 143, 000 terawatt hours of energy, with approximately 90 percent of that energy produced from fossil and nuclear sources.

So there there appears to be a huge amount of inertia to overcome before the E-Cat or any other mass produced LENR plants appear on the market. I wonder, however, what will happen  if a worldwide awakening really does take place –and people in industry and government, as well as average consumers of energy (everyone) recognize that this new technology is far superior to any source of energy we have yet seen, in terms of cost, power density and environmental friendliness. Is it possible that there might be an abandonment of inferior energy sources on an unprecedented scale?

I think it is possible, but not necessarily probable. But for that to happen, it seems to me that it would mean that there would have to be a massive expansion of production facilities for these new products, and that of course takes a lot of time and money. It would also require a great deal of flexibility, since we could see rapid development of this technology as research continues, and the products are refined.

I don’t know how it will all turn out. But I’m going to be watching with a great deal of interest to see what kind of impact this new fire will have on the world.

  • daniel maris

    The advantage of the E Cat (if it works – why don’t we know by now?), is that it could easily be adapted to large scale steam boilers (previously gas or coal powered). That must make the changeover much more cost-effective than would otherwise be the case.

    It seems much more appropriate for the industrial/energy generation scale.

    I think the changeover could take as little as 20 years for industry and energy generation if it is say 50% cheaper than the cheapest alternative.

    Domestic and vehicle applications would take a lot longer. But shipping, beginning with cargo shipping would be a logical next step. Also note, sea diesel is about the most polluting stuff on the planet.

    • Peter_Roe

      Followed by railway locomotives, where tracks are not electrified. A typical locomotive needs about 5-8MW at the wheels (considerably more in the US and Australia)

    • Omega Z

      Daniel

      I agree at this time E-cat’s are better matched to existing systems.

      Most of us tend to overlook the big picture. The E-cat just replaces the Fossil Fuel/burners of Power Generation.

      Boilers & Turbines will still be in the same cost range. All we’ll be saving is on the Fuel Costs. Which could be substantial, Especially as those costs are going up.

      Distributed smaller grids instead of centralized should add to savings & the consumer could see a 50% cost reduction in time. Maybe more in 20 years as the technology advances.

      What is really needed is for a cost effective way to convert to electricity. Eventually just becoming another home appliance. No Grid costs at all.

      All takes time.

  • Rogx

    Burning fuels is a very primitive way to get energy (also NiH).

    I believe Rossi has what he say, but CF/LERN is over.

    We dont’ need it.

    Energy from the vacuum is the future.

    Example:

    http://pesn.com/2013/01/05/9602260_Assistant_Professor_Presents_Scientific_Model_for_Yildiz_Magnet_Motor/

    • LCD

      Are you trying to be funny?

    • Hugo

      Assuming this works it would be even more puzzling in terms of market penetration. According to the article it has been running since at least 2005 and a magnet motor would be the easiest thing to mass produce and power practically everything with minimal adaption. But it isn’t even in production or on the market or in any use at all. Put simply it doesn’t exist.

      • Rogx

        Don’t You feel now to be in the shoes of Wright Brothers naysayers, or of hard skeptics for CF/LENR ?
        Don’t You feel now to be a little too “academic”?

        • georgehants

          Hugo, try and not let yourself look to foolish on page.

          • Peter_Roe

            That’s a big ask, George!

      • robiD

        According to Sterling Allan a magnetic motor will be accurately tested by an European university in mid January 2013.
        Test will last thirty days to rule out any possibility of hidden energy sources and results will be made public.

        http://pesn.com/2013/01/04/9602242_BSMH-Yildiz_All-Magnet-Motor_30-Day_University_Test_Pending/

        • Bigwilly

          If sterling allen says it, than you can be sure it will not happen. Of all the new energy systems he has reviewed in the last 2 decades guess how many have come to fruition?

          Guess…

          …Zero

          Zero of them. None.

          “Derp, maybe Rossi will be the one that breaks the 20 year free energy drought!!!!”

          Ya, maybe pap

          BW

          • robiD

            Will see 😉

  • Thomas

    ““ it will not be a revolution, but an evolution through series of integrations.””

    Sounds to me that 3rd party report told Rossi, that E-Cat doesn’t work …

    • Joel C.

      Half-empty cup perspective, nothing more.

    • Peter_Roe

      More of a contrived negative agenda perspective I think.

  • Ian Alden

    Having been involved with the last major technology revolution, I predict that the E-cat will take 7 more years to get going, once the first consumer unit is produced. This is based on the sound premise that each new technology uptake is faster than the last one. What I mean by this is how long it takes 90% of the base consumer market to take up a technology. This take up time has dropped for each new consumer technology, the last such new technology was pocket digital cameras. These first came to market in the mid 90’s or there abouts, now everybody has several, it took about 9 years, its really hard to have a mobile phone without one, Oh and there’s another one – Mobile phones they took about 11 yrs, from once they became a consumer object.
    The key to this happening is once more than one company can produce the technology, and they have creamed the professional market. This creaming time is also getting short for each new technology. It is also interesting to note that very rarely do the inventors make a large amount of money, that takes luck and very good judgement for example, Tesla, was the person who solved electricity, not Edison who backed the wrong horse (DC) and who also collaborated with Swann, but made a dollar or two.
    So the steps are quite simple.
    Early adoptors – those that have a special need or see a marketing need to have the technology and are prepared to pay well over the odds.
    Base Commercial – those that see the long term future cost benefits.
    Show offs – the first consumer products very expensive to buy
    Mass Market – full consumer production – cents matter!

    Oh and by the way Flieschmann Pons kicked this all off over 20yrs ago, so we are a long way in now, although its taking a while to start commercially due to all sorts of outside interests.

    • jjaroslav

      For anyone who has ever worked within a large group to get an new innovation or invention from concept to market the timeline is magnified by the size of the organization and its bureaucratic weight. By joining up with a large group you get protection of your idea, you get excellent development resouces and your initial timeline is tossed out the window.

      Once the initial paths are created the process can speed up (look at Apple) but not until. This will grind on…..
      A large group will not launch until they are good and ready, regardless of what the public wants.

  • sgt

    If you go into CIAFactbook and do the research you will see that the Mideast has high birthrates and no jobs. Tourism is gone and they only export Oil and terrorism. No matter how fast LENR is introduced to the world oil prices will take a huge hit and profits will drop like a rock. Leaving only hunger and terrorism for the Mideast – Not a future to look forward to IMHO.

    • Joel C.

      Another possibility is they will look to the advanced societies for inspiration and change themselves to emulate them.

    • Chris I

      No doubt some Middle East and Arabic countries have fossil fuels as a key revenue but, if they are on the ball enough (and there are smart enough folks among them), they could rearrange their economies. A new energy market might even help.

      Terrorism is a far more complicated matter than you make it seem and I don’t see fit to get into politics here. Its causes have a lot to do with planetary strategy but also with… fossil fuels, go figure. While a revolution in energy sources would alleviate part of the causes of terrorism, a major change in international policy would remain necessary but this is totally outside the scope of this site. Still, a falling importance of fossil fuels would decrease rather than increase the causes of terrorism; the real risk is that of already explosive situations being further ignited before new economic equilibrium occurs.

  • Fibb

    if you read my question to Rossi on his blog you will see how I outlined a possible chaotic market effect that LENR technology could create long before there is any market penetration.

    Energy stock values are largely determined by reserves on the balance sheet and future value. LENR technology once on the market and/or 3Rd party verified the makes the reserves far less valuable.

    • Fibb

      this is hard to do on my phone…. extra the in there.

      anyway…. I meant to end with…. far less valuable virtually overnight.

      • Peter_Roe

        But not if the means of production of CF boilers for grid power is throttled to the extent that it will take (say) 20 years to replace coal and gas just in grid generators. Even with the slow rise of battery cars, oil will still be the vehicle/aircraft fuel of choice for the next 15-20 years – long enough to see out most existing reserves.

        “Where there’s no will, there’s no way” may be a suitable epithet for the next 2 decades as far as cold fusion is concerned, if TPTB get their way (and it seems from the downward trajectory of Rossi’s pronouncements that they probably have).

  • Fibb

    another thing I would like to point out is that if/when LENR is proven commercially viable, Rossi will be probably just one of dozens of companies producing LENR products. if the technology is all that we hope it is then big oil and big coal could become big LENR in a big hurry.

  • georgehants

    News from the world of quantum physics: A non-causal quantum eraser
    Wednesday, 09 January 2013
    http://machineslikeus.com/news/news-world-quantum-physics-non-causal-quantum-eraser

  • Engineer

    To us with our desire for change it will look like evolution. To our kids with the benefit of history it will look like a revolution.

    It is all in your perspective.

    • Omega Z

      Engineer, I Agree.

      Those younger think cell phones have always been.

      Those of us older realize just 20 years ago Cell phones weren’t much smaller then a brick & far & few between.

      30 years ago the Brick was smaller & lighter. LOL…

  • RenzoB

    personally I find the new fonts and layout much less readable, what all of you think? Perhaps Frank should return to the old format

    • Layman

      Yes, please return to the old format!

      • admin

        I hope to do so, but problems with it at the moment, unfortunately.

        • RenzoB

          Ok I missed that it was for the site problems, I hope you can resolve them soon!

        • captain

          Frank, your continuous commitment fot this blog is highly appreciated.
          Me too, I’d prefer going back to the old format.
          Thanks again, edit working properly 😉

          • admin

            Thank, captain — yes, me too, when I can iron out some kinks.

          • GreenWin

            Thank you Frank.

    • Peter_Roe

      I did prefer the old format, but I think this is still a ‘work in progress’ judging by the lack of topic links, comment editing, ‘likes’ etc.

      • georgehants

        Peter as you say I am sure we can all get by o.k. for the moment while things are being sorted.

    • daniel maris

      Quite stylish, but yes, I agree – less clear for comments.

    • Fibb

      yes, I agree. old format much easier to read

    • Chris I

      I very much agree.

      We all appreciate Frank’s efforts of making info and discussion available. So I hope these problems are solveable. I’m glad I’m not the only one to find it was much less hard on me poor worn out eyeballs before, though I’m getting the hang of it at least a little bit.

  • Omega Z

    Thanks for posting this Frank.

    I’ve pointed this out on occasion but never thought to use the word Evolution. DUH…

    It’s the shear Magnitude of the Task.
    Consider China “alone” adds the equivalent of 1000Mw in energy production every week. That’s 3000Mw in E-cats before Electrical conversion. That be 300,000 E-cat cores per week.

    This isn’t replacing older systems. This is New Additional Capacity only. That’s over 15Gw a year & only because they’ve slowed down. They were growing at 50Gw & up to 100Gw before the Economy slowed.

    This doesn’t include the rest of the World of which about 50% would be starting from near Zero.

    Only after you reach the point of supplying additional capacity can you even think about replacing the old.

    For U.S. visitors to this site, Compare this to the U.S. trying to built New highways while at the same time trying to maintain the Old. There are financial limits to everything & changing our power grid will be no different. It will take several decades.

    These financial limits will effect the world.
    The Upside would be a gradual Downward pressure on Fossil fuel prices, but even that will be slow & not in the beginning. If I owned Oil Stocks I wouldn’t freak. Some may at the Initial announcement & prices may drop temporarily but will bounce back once reality sets in.

    I’ll state what I’ve stated before. I hope this technology spreads fast enough to offset the gradual decline in Fossil Fuel availability whether that be running out or cost prohibitive.

    I expect it to be slow starting. It’s a New Technology. People will be Leary. Wait & see if it’s what their told. Even Corporations want a track record to look at.
    Also Manufacturing facilities take time to plan & build.

    Some have posted that other technologies are also on the horizon that may compete or overshadow LENR. Maybe. We wait to see, But the Above perspective still applies to any new technology. All applies. It will take time.

    • georgehants

      Omega Z, Ha, I bet you meant wary instead of leary.
      Bring back the Edit.
      Like the comment.

      • admin

        Ok, I am going to turn on editing again, and hopefully it will be stable this time.

    • Fibb

      the effect on oil prices could be dramatic as new multiple billion dollar oil projects get shelved left, right and center. would you invest in dying resource play that had a multi decade payback? only these new plays keep the price low as it is.

  • georgehants

    I put this report up before the site had it’s problems and I think it’s disappeared.
    Lots of good links.
    —-
    From Cold Fusion Now
    http://coldfusionnow.org/is-it-finally-happening-a-big-market-shift-in-the-energy-sector-is-claimed/

    • GreenWin

      Thanks George. This is just the beginning of global awareness that the fossil age is coming to an end. Key fossils like Shell and BP are the ones at highest risk. Will they accept the inevitable? Or continue to resist transition to clean, non-combustive energy?

      If their leaders have vision, and are fearless, they will join the revolution. If not… few miss the horse and buggy.

  • georgehants

    Edit is back, well done Admin

  • georgehants

    While the LHC is off-line for a some years perhaps a few of the thousands of physicists left idle could take a stab at working out what Cold Fusion is.
    Unfortunately our top scientists probably don’t have a clue about the subject beyond their religious Dogma of it’s impossible because our “opinion experts” tell us so.
    —-
    LHC to re-awaken in 2015 with doubled energy, luminosity.
    http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/lhc-to-reawaken-in-2015-with-doubled-energy-luminosity/article4290658.ece

    • NJT

      Right on George – How can they justify this kind of vacation after spending billions of our money to accomplish WHAT!

      • GreenWin

        This is known as an EPP – Employment Program for Physicists.

  • PersonFromPorlock

    “it will not be a revolution, but an evolution through series of integrations.”

    AKA “cooling the mark.”

    • Fibb

      I’m a mark now. neat

  • georgehants

    O dear now it’s Global cooling, start pumping the CO2.
    ——
    Sea level rise could lead to cooler, stormier planet
    09 January 2013 by Michael Le Page
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21728995.200-sea-level-rise-could-lead-to-cooler-stormier-planet.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment

    • hard to follow, it was long said, yet disproved, that global warmin should lead to more storms… facts showed since 2 century or natural then maybe anthropogenic warming, that if does not change storm frequencey (unlike ocean oscilations).

      now they say cool mean storms…

      it seems that anything cause dramatic change, whatever it is. We should study if stability won’t have dramatic impact too…
      exhausting…

      anyway with LENR we can solve any problem… real or not. if CO2 is guilty, we can avoid it, or pump it.
      if CO2 missing, we can pump oil easier and burn it.
      if CO2 is not guilty and we have global cooling, we can heat our houses. and if it is global warming we can use air conditioning…

      and if it continues, we will anyway need all of that.

      time to panic for fearmongerers.

  • Omega Z

    Frank

    I think Rossi’s change in tone is to be expected. A Natural progression.

    In the Beginning his focus would be to develop an answer to the Energy problem. Cheap, Hopefully clean, Efficient & abundant. He would be aware that we need a lot.

    That Said:
    Only after successfully developing this technology would the reality of implementing it come into focus. This is an entirely different stage.

    I’m sure that when he talked of a plant building a million units a year for homes that this number seemed Grand indeed. It’s at that point that I started looking at numbers. At that point I determined it would take decades & only if thousands of manufacturing plants were built world wide. IF the Financial resources were even available. It was a Reality Check.

    From his postings, I’m sure this is where Rossi is only within the last 6 months. Reality is setting in.

    It will be a Revolution by way of Evolution. This technology will be gradually integrated with existing Energy production.

    At 1st, it will fill the need for additional demand. Gradually it will replace existing power generation. At some point becoming the Primary Energy production.
    Then Gradually replacing whats left.

    I would Venture a Guess that if you built a New Natural Gas powered power plant today with a 40 year life cycle, there is a good chance it will be in full operation for most or all of that 40 years.

    I would note that Other technologies need to be developed or redeveloped to bring out the full potential of this technology.

    Some Numbers.
    1 Billion plus cars in the world each require multiple 10Kw units each for operation. Millions more being built for a world that could conceivably amount to double that if transportation means don’t change.
    Another 300 million cars in comparison for replacement of Maritime Shipping.
    I don’t have a clue to the Number of Trains or planes in the world.
    This doesn’t include Industry & home use.
    Not to mention Desalinization around the World.
    Nor the Myriad other new uses that will come about.

    All this while maintaining status qua. Life continues. We still need to build homes, Cars, Grow food, Etc…

    And Here’s a sobering thought-if after 25 to 30 years, most of the Old has been replaced, The E-cats have reached their projected Life Cycle. It’s time to Start Over.

    Edit to add, Half the World is starting from scratch. Double the Above.

    • Bernie Koppenhofer

      If you have been following Rossi over the past two years plus, you will find he has been very consistent in saying the e-cat will not be a total solution to energy but will augment energy production.

    • NJT

      So Frank, your philosophy fits well into the industrial counties of the world, but totally leaves out those billions who have yet to see a power-line. Andrea’s initial promise would have helped those poor suffering populations. Now his pathway appears to just satisfy the PTB – this is morally WRONG!

  • georgehants

    “Measuring the pyroelectric response of thin films is difficult and has restricted the understanding of the physics of pyroelectricity, prompting some to label it as ‘one of the least-known properties of solid materials’,” Martin added. “This work provides the most complete and detailed modeling and experimental study of this widely unknown region of materials and has direct implications for next generation devices.
    http://www.nanomagazine.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1985%3Abottom-up-approach-provides-first-characterization-of-pyroelectric-nanomaterials&catid=38%3Anano-news&Itemid=159

  • Linda

    Assume for the moment that Rossi’s invention actually works.

    From where he sits now, having supposedly done his deal with the Devil, Rossi is right in what he says, that there will be no revolution, only integration.

    The existing players are making too much money now with what they have to allow LENR to upset the apple cart. It will be quietly locked away.

    The reality is, if you want an energy Revolution, you have to part ways with Capitalism. The needs of the few (ie the Capitalists) always eventually outweigh the needs of the many in Capitalism. If you insist that the needs of the many (ie Society) outweigh the needs of the few, then you are stating a Socialist proposition.

    Socialism puts people before profits. Socialism says that it is evil to allow the greedy few to withold essential resources needed to alleviate the human misery of millions. If LENR doesn’t illustrate the ethical black hole at the heart of our current Capitalist system, nothing else will.

    LENR must be Open Sourced. Only then can the Revolution begin.

    • orsobubu

      Linda, I agree with you in general terms, as I wrote several times on this forum (google: “E-cat world” orsobubu), although I prefer to talk about a communist revolution rather than a socialist or open sourced economy. But here almost nobody understood. A big problem is that very few americans know the true nature of the soviet economy, and still confuse it with communism and do not want to hear this world any more. While you can easily prove that it was a state-capitalism and that communism has never existed to date, it remains a revolutionary program for the future. In the end, also proletarians in USA will have to switch to internationalism and communist organization to survive and seize the power, or perish in flames. Then, after the revolution, workers of the world will be free to use LENR and any other technological marvel without the danger of overproduction, unemployment, fall of the profit rate and wars.

      • Anonymole

        True communism works only is small doses. In communes where the distribution and management can be made fully transparent. Larger installations of communism always fail due to the greed factor. Humans are greedy and only in small self policing groups can such greed be contained.

        One way to integrate deep socialism (or communism) with the capitalistic world at large is to have small socialistic enclaves produce goods and services that are consumed in a market economy. I call these productive socialistic entities co-operations. The employee owned corporation is a current example.

    • daniel maris

      There is absolutely no evidence he is tied in with a major player.

      • Pweet

        And even if there is, he insists they have the same philosophy that he has.
        So not only will we all have free energy but the sick children will be looked after as well.
        What more could you ask for?

      • NJT

        This is still an unwritten open book. Andrea Rossi and how he fits into the history of our world is still just being written. Let us all hope that he chooses the correct path for mankind and not the PTB and just his pocketbook – we shall soon see which outcome is chosen…

      • New

        You(I) never know with A.R
        Not many people thought he had a security verification… That was epic!

    • MJS

      Oh please! Capitalism is the best system so far and socialism is a bad joke.

      Milton Friedman on Greed:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWsx1X8PV_A

      ———

    • In the late 1800’s and early 20th century
      innovation and competition were encouraged.

      The global establishment has become so controlled
      that even in North America inventions are
      kept from view and competition is suppressed.

      We and our institutions have forgotten how.

    • Anonymole

      Absolutely. We’re back to examining the ipsofacto aspect of Rossi’s existence.

      Rossi exists: therefore the massive and powerful state and corporate players that would lose the most if NFE were a reality have vetted his claims and found them lacking.

      Rossi exists: governments that would benefit from or be detrimentally impacted by NFE have thoroughly investigated Rossi’s claims and have established their lack of credibility; and have walked away.

      Rossi exists: as a profiteer. The “Rossi Says” phenomena continues to roll his ball forward maintaining a low but constant buzz in the fringe energy generation sector. He apparently can perpetuate his rumors ad infinitum.

      I wish it were otherwise. I dreamed of NFE. But must continue on, disheartened.

  • Kim G. Patterson

    I’ll Turn in my guns, if you
    give us Free Energy.

    Respect
    Kim

    • Anonymole

      You’ll need your guns more than ever if NFE comes to pass. Energy limitations are what have constricted economies throughout history. When such constraints are lifted, the fight for natural resources will really begin. With NFE you could expend nearly nothing in energy costs – mining precious metals, or rare earths, or gems. The only restrictions are resources then. Land. Water. Materials. Equipment. And of course politics and those who already own the land, water, materials and equipment. Guns will be a necessity in these new frontiers.

  • GreenWin

    It is helpful to remember that AR is not the only fish in this sea. Or boxer in the match. There are MANY people in this circle that we never hear about. People BTW, with power equal to or greater than the aging oil cartels and fanboys. Their criterion is:

    1) Does this improve the human experience?
    2)Will it bring heat, light, and energy to millions of disenfranchised?
    3) Will it prevent the wanton destruction of forests for firewood?
    4) Will it allow billions of gallons of sea water to be desalinated, economically?
    5) Will it expand the existing global economy?

    The answer is YES to all the above. Oil tykes can get on board or get run over. They are powerless to stop this train.

    In 1905 6,000 cars were sold in the USA. Five years later in 1910 the industry sold 500k units. In spite of the naysayers and whining about safety, scaring livestock, pedestrians, etc.

    When refrigeration was applied to home appliances – it replaced the entire ice house industry in 10 years. Naysayers will oppose evolution, or revolution, simply because they are afraid of change.

    However, there is as much and more revenue to be created in an LENR commercialization than from all oil cartels combined. Those are the facts. “Integration” – sure. Like the Model T was integrated into the livery industry.

    • daniel maris

      I doubt the refrigerator manufacturers said “Hey guys we’ve got a great new way of keeping food chilled – but we can’t tell you about it or show it to you because of an NDA.”

      It’s way past time for Rossi to put up. His latest deadline for something convincing is next month. Let’s make that the last deadline.

      • GreenWin

        Worked software for 20 years. Never saw a product of value developed without NDAs. Betas go out regularly with NDAs in place.

        And I don’t think AR owes me a thing, since I have not invested with him.

    • Bigwilly

      I think our good buddy GW is forgetting about the horse and buggy tycoons and the asphault tycoons who have thus far suppressed the flying car.

      Once the flying car industry, (multi quadrillion dollar industry) takes off there is nothing stopping it.

      • GreenWin

        BIGW… Heh, heh! You mean to say you’re still walking to work?? 🙂

    • oil companies already have created incumbator for the energy transition, that was according to the current consensus renewable energies.
      I’ve seen, people like aldo proia, jumping on the adventure… but also other linked to BP, shell,Total…
      Now it seems that the consensus estimate that the future is shale gas, and maybe some next-gen nuke.

      however I could see executives making some underground moves, like aldo proia did…

      Modern corps no more fight the revolution, they surf on it, even if it mean firing 90% of their current employee, and hiring twice more in the new domain…

      I would say tha modern tobacco salers, dont deny tobacco toxicit but decide to sell patch and stop-smoking methods, and will move to providing finess club franchise and organic food…

      don’t try to prevent the market to move, but move with the market.

  • I think Rossi has severely underestimated the effort it takes to take an idea and make it a real product. E.g. it took 8 years of development until the Super Soaker could finally be bought. (see http://www.isoaker.com/Info/history_supersoaker.html). It just takes a tremendous amount of effort, even for supposingly simple consumer products, get them from the idea to the masses.

    • New

      If there is will there is a way.
      The higher demand, the more competition, lower prices and faster development.
      Lets not forget that there is hundred of millions of people without a job and there is plenty of resources to work with.
      The world economy sure needs a boost and so does many people as well.
      I think of the concept of LENR: Over night every person in this world might become a millionaire. (Its a metaphor, dont take me literary)

    • stuey

      and now you cant even buy a hand pumped super soaker with 50ft range like back in the old days, its been suppressed and taken over buy inferior products bearing the super soaker name. only true super soaker was a larami

  • Owen

    One factor in the evolution vs. revolution debate: Energy is more important than say cell phones or TVs. Because of this, the market uptake will likely be faster and more chaotic than most consumer products. Once LENR devices are available there will be a stampede to buy them. This will hasten market competition, including black market products. The bottom line is everyone wants affordable, clean, reliable energy. Even better if it’s off-grid.

  • captain

    The LENR Revolution will start ASA the first 1MW hot plant prototype will become satisfactorily operational and demonstrating all its efficiency in producing clean, cheap and safe energy.
    Not like this
    http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/pollution-overview/
    And then, in the states, what will prez Obama think about the environmental pollution, Clean Air Act?
    Obama, yes, cause Rossi’s first commercial plant will be operational here.
    And the ‘green’ CA state?
    No more excuses in ‘forgetting’ to mention the LENR energy, but talking only of solar energy (when overcast?), wind energy (without wind?), NG (non-polluting?), a.s.o.

  • I’m suspicious of all this NDA stuff, too. The fundamental strategy of a con game “payoff” is to promise and delay, promise and delay. If Andrea Rossi were the only game in town, I’d say he’s playing us for chumps. But with all the other developments around the globe, I don’t think that can be the case. Where does that leave us? Well, as the
    number of pessimists in your survey grows, Andrea Rossi is facing his final deadline next month – and I can’t even remember what this one is. As for the global rollout, it won’t come before he figures out how to produce the home E-Cats with electricity generation. That is what the world is really waiting for, and what billions of ordinary people need. If he can do it, the world may very well change overnight, just as it did in the early halcyon days of the Internet.

  • Sanjeev

    MU research chief wants ‘cold fusion’ puzzle solved
    – Columbia tribune

    http://goo.gl/C9MLI

    • Sanjeev

      Please ignore, its very old news.

  • Simone

    Dear Frank,

    you seem not to understand the point.. if the technology proves to work and it is real then it will take 1 year for all the other major corporations to start building a similar product. In the meanwhile the 1MW plant will probably improve into a 5MW plant as the other corps start selling thier version of E-CAT. The growth of a similar tech is not linear, it is more exponential than linear, it will start slowly but will grow incredibly fast and old systems will soon be replaced. 10 year span will be enough.

  • Rene Vega

    I think what many feared would happen did. It was wonderful for a time to think a new energy technology would be mainstreamed to the comsumer level quickly, bypassing the energy monopolies. With deep no strings pockets it might have happened. But, instead this new tech has been subsumed likely by some large energy company and scheduled for transition into the energy mix at a more sedate pace. The manufactured spectre of danger will confine it to industrial sectors for the duration to work out the ‘safety’ issues. I assume it will appear more extensively in the energy production mix in 10 years or so, but carefully managed to maximize profits to the large energy companies. In the large it will lead to a cleaner environment, but not a major benefit to individuals for quite some time to come. About the only way to jump ahead in the ecat or LENR tech is to open source it, find the recipe, by independent means, that gives high output ratios.

    • Jonas

      I think so too. Our hope stands to the Celani wire experiments, the Hydrobetatron and things like the Nanor device. Perhaps even Defkalion might succeed in bringing us consumer products. Most importantly we must try to keep things on a DIY level, where kits for home use could be sold.

    • Tangled Connections

      My thoughts exactly. Thank you.

    • Peter_Roe

      That seems to be where we are going with Rossi. We might hope that some other contenders such as Brillouin and possibly DGT emerge in due course, but I suspect they’ll go the same way – the pockets of the energy cartels are virtually infinitely deep.

  • Gerrit

    here is some really interesting news:

    Ames Laboratory to Lead New Research Effort to Address Shortages in Rare Earth and Other Critical Materials

    http://energy.gov/articles/ames-laboratory-lead-new-research-effort-address-shortages-rare-earth-and-other-critical

    Ames lab has been involved in LENR research in the past. Mitsubishi and Hitachi have managed to turn Cs into Pr.
    (Praseodymium is a rare earth)

    could this be the start ?

    • timycelyn

      Now that is a fascinating 2+2 = ? 🙂

    • Gerrit

      just noticed that it was not Hitachi that replicated the transmutation, but of course Toyota

  • Stephen

    No, I don’t get it… if real, this is the most important breakthough of he past 10^x years. Of course it will be a revolution. Note the IF though…

  • mikeS_50

    here we are into the new year once again and no new news, seems this like the rest are forever postponed indefinitely.

    • Peter_Roe

      Perhaps you could tell those of us who weren’t expecting anything in particular just now, what exactly it is that has been postponed?

      • GreenWin

        Certainly not “The Coming of the Shills.”

        • Gerrit

          +1

  • GreenWin
    • Chris I

      Just what I was expecting. Good find, Green!

      Except that I wpuld have posted a link to the original source:
      http://news.cnet.com/8618-17938_105-57562092.html?assetTypeId=12&messageId=13482599

    • New

      Its been mentioned before on this forum.
      Fracking.
      Its a method used for cheaper and easier production / harvesting of “natural gas”. If I remember correct (?) it makes production of gas 3 times cheaper and is a reason energy prices is falling in America.

      It could also be a contributing factor that maybe gas is just cheaper than oil now a days(?).

      What makes me sad is that Solar & Wind is taking a punch. China still going strong (?) but they have a huge energy demand got resources (?) for production of these technologies. (?) However in Europe, I have heard that some of these companies are not receiving governmental subsidizing and tax releases in the same extent and cant compete.
      I would like us to continue and increase research and development, especially on solar, because that in return increases output and lower cost.

      The sun is great… working 24/7
      And if cloudy, we can still collect infrared light(?) and produce energy from the sun anyway!

      (Im not a expert and I dont have the time to go through all my sources…???????)

  • GreenWin

    Bigwilly says:
    January 10, 2013 at 2:13 am

    “Once the flying car industry, (multi quadrillion dollar industry) takes off there is nothing stopping it.”

    Not sure about “multi quadrillion $$” BW – but those loons at NASA, Boeing Research, Boeing Commercial, GE Aerospace,and Georgia Tech are thinkin’ hard on it:

    “The idea of using a Low Energy Nuclear Reactor (LENR) was discussed at the N+4 Workshop, both as a ground-based source of energy to create electricity or hydrogen, and an aircraft carried power source for primary propulsion. Given the potential of clean zero-emissions energy, further work was identified for both applications.” P.38

    http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120009038_2012008934.pdf

    • Bigwilly

      Hey GW,

      Good to hear we have top men working on the problem. I wish them the best of luck.

      Asked earlier if I am walking to work, the answer is lately yes and it royally sucks!

      I have a question for you sir:

      In an earlier post you mentioned a “galactic standard”. What does this reference? Can you point me to a definition?

      Thanks
      BW

      • GreenWin

        Hi BW, that’s a reference to whacky Professor Michio Kaku’s 3 types of civilization. Truly spacey stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67fPHOYqD3w

        Unhappily, he considers Earth to be Type Zero.

      • Bigwilly

        Hey Pal,

        Thanks for the link. I remember reading about the level of civilizations now. Pretty cool. I hope that is what we are destined for.

        BW

  • Anothercoilgun

    When I see 100,000 as being thought of as not significant, I see self defeat all over it.

    100,000 IS SIGNIFICANT.
    Just 1 LENR is significant.