ECW Think Tank: How do you see Nations Reshaping Because of LENR in Next 50 Years? (Bachcole)

As many people mention here and elsewhere these days, even though we are in a stage of research and development, there’s an incredible potential behind the LENR technology we follow here.

We spend a lot of time looking at technical details and specific experiments these days — which I think is very important in trying to understand what we are dealing with — but I think it is important to keep our eyes on the big picture, which potentially is the transformation of the way energy is produced, and all the ramifications of the availability of abundant, inexpensive clean energy created in an entirely new and currently (to mainstream science) inexplicable way.

So in addition to keeping up with current news, I’d like to add some more ‘big picture’ posts where we can explore issues and questions that deal with future implications of LENR technology in a variety of contexts. I’m calling this project the ECW Think Tank — a way to put our collective heads together on the broad subject of LENR.

Please feel free to suggest questions to explore — you can use the Submit Post link at the top of the page.

For this thread, here’s a question posed by Bachcole (Roger Bird): “How do you see the world’s nations reshaping themselves because of the impact of LENR over the next 50 years or so?”

Think away!


  • Billy Jackson

    This is the type of mental exercise that i truly enjoy. A couple of caveats before i begin. the pace of technology may seem glacially slow when we look at LENR on a day to day basis. in truth we are leaping forward with every released report hungry for news and further tidbits as we inch incrementally forward.

    Technology itself is increasing at a rapid rate that shows little signs of slowing down, with real world modeling, real world computer physics on a 1 to 1 basis, coupled with the power to manipulate via virtual realities our ability to simulate engineering or complex construction problems open a realm of possibilities that simply was not available to us even 5 years ago…

    I see LENR as a trans formative technology that can rival the impact of nearly any technology we have created in the last 150 years. When it is developed to maturity its benefits can only be understated as i do not believe many of us can comprehend the breadth and scope of all that it will touch, enhance, or transform.

    Automotive
    Manufacturing
    Energy Generation
    Desalination
    Vertical Farming
    Robotics
    3D Printing
    Molecular/atomic manipulation
    Computing
    Global Warming
    Virtual Worlds
    Energy Independence
    Geo Political Behaviors
    Financial
    Communications
    Medical Rejuvenation/Regeneration
    Bio engineering / sculpting /enhancement

    Space Travel/Resources

    LENR will touch all of these and so much more. what will the world look like with LENR in the future… I don’t know. try describing what our world looks like to someone buying their first MODEL T from Henry Ford….by the time you get to flight, the circuit board, the internet, a computer, cellphones, and wireless transmissions… they might just be ready to think you are pulling their leg…

    • Mytakeis

      wow I like the charts in your reference, if I live to be 120 years old (which I expect to do) I’ll see are world 1 trillion times more advanced than the present. That’s great speculation, hopefully some folk will stay around to enjoy a rejuvenated mother earth, and not everyone go traipsing off into higher dimensions.

  • pg

    Italy might reshape into a moccasin…

  • Mike Henderson

    I conjure an image of freezing cavemen watching a lightning strike ignite a tree. One of them asks “Imagine we could do that any time we wished. How do you see clans reshaping because of fire in the next 50,000 years?”

    Societies have long been built on control of access to resources like energy, water, food and transportation. The consequences of a fundamental shift in every one of those are difficult to fathom. I sure hope it is for the better.

    • Omega Z

      And in every case, life carried on. The only real consequence was that life improved overtime…

  • ecatworld

    Bachole’s question pertained to the fate of nations and how LENR might reshape them. What would happen if a country decided to go ‘all-in’ with LENR, and ‘LENRize’ its economy ahead of the rest of the world?

    You could have one nation setting the pace, and others waking up and seeing that if they don’t keep up they could be quickly left behind.

    I could see a country like Japan doing this, which has quite a good track record when it comes to implementing new technologies. They need cheap energy sources badly, too.

    • Billy Jackson

      That’s a head scratcher 🙁 it comes down to what we see as acceptable parameters for LENR. couple that i am going to take as accomplished.
      Self Sustaining for long periods – Yes
      COP 20+ – Yes
      Full Integration Via civilian, Military, and Industrial – Yes

      The First nation that goes all in with LENR will face plenty of challenges as they integrate the technology with its existing base. yet the parameter thats set is 50 years from now. so we will take those goals as accomplished and the fact that we are several generations in on improved versions…We would be past the integration stage and well into the advanced production benefit stage…

      the first benefit would be import / export. Gone are the days of importing fuels for energy needs (transport, housing, manufacturing) you would be an exporter.. of nearly EVERYTHING you are capable of manufacturing. Oil, Natural Gas, Coal would suddenly become a commodity you sold to the nations who have not adapted LENR making you flush with cash in our energy starved global economy.

      Food, Textiles, Materials.. from steel, cloth to vegetables your ability to produce cheaply would undercut those who refuse or are late in adapting. your ability to grow food products year round 24 hours a day would expand drastically the further that energy costs come down the faster this grows. you cant compete with someone who can produce a like quality of a ton of steel for 50.00 vs a ton of steel for 250.00 (fake numbers)

      Your population slowly converts from labor/manufacturers to Investor/Consumer. As you go all in the prices of things drop. your population is able to spend less and less on necessary goods for living they begin to convert to luxury goods, education and eventually investment resulting in higher standards of living and upward growth overall.

      Militarily you are nearly limitless in your range and time on target. the only limits imposed are the amount of equipment and people you can commit to a given amount of area. (not going into what lenr will do for weapons… sorry)

      there is nothing that LENR wont touch that requires energy. the only deciding factor is how much of a COP can you achieve.. the higher we go.. the further we can reach and impact the different sectors of a given economy… an all in nation could quickly become one of the top nations in the world economically held back or advanced only by its political affiliations with the rest of the world.

      • ecatworld

        Rossi is saying that the Hot Cat self-sustaining periods are longer than those of the 1MW plant, so I think might be seeing COP approaching triple digits with the E-Cat. And I think at some point COP will become largely irrelevant.

        Also, once you start producing electricity via LENR your input costs to ‘drive’ other LENR reactors will begin to drop, until input costs could really become miniscule. Rossi has shown interest in using batteries for input. We could get to a point where production of electricity is dirt cheap — it may really be too cheap to meter.

        • GreenWin

          Doubtful any country will go “all-in.” But we might see some very interesting projects in Saudi Arabia. And neighboring nations. An example would be a greening of the desert project. Construction of new, massive desalination plants along the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, piping fresh water inland to irrigate and terraform a huge new agricultural industry.

          This may seem counter-intuitive for oil rich nations, but the sheer wealth of these States would allow big irrigation/terraform projects. And provide a reasoned transition from fossil to cold fusion industries. The drop in cost of graphene filters for reverse osmosis, combined with $0.01/kWh electricity could also see large scale desal in central California, India and China – alleviating drought and expanding agriculture. Putin’s Russia will provide cloning and blackmarket CF services for emergent nations.

          On smaller scale, home CCHP systems and free charging pedestals will allow EV owners to drive essentially fuel-cost free. EV industry will rapidly replace ICE light transport fleets. Only diehard collectors like my friend Agaricus and Jay Leno will tinker with combustion for transportation.

          • Omega Z

            We should hope some graphene battery technology comes through. The more I dig, the more I think lithium batteries aren’t going to cut it. There just isn’t enough of it. Besides. If it’s a critical component of LENR, we shouldn’t be wasting it. We’ll be right back to limited supply like Oil.

            Desalination plants. Are you aware that over 13K already exist. Until a few months ago, I wasn’t.

          • GreenWin

            Hi Omega. Lithium from EV batteries is recycled. Advances in transmutation suggests the entire periodic table may be synthesized. And yes, desal is already big in nations that can afford it. But it’s energy intensive. At vastly lower cost all of Eastern Africa, India, China, Australia, Arabian peninsula will benefit greatly from desalinated irrigation and new agriculture.

          • Omega Z

            The issue with Lithium is overall supply. Elon Musk’s Mega plant is going to greatly strain the supply & that is only for 500K batteries a year. Count 80 million plus vehicles a year & it doesn’t look very promising price wise. That also doesn’t include the energy storage market.

            Note tho, His locating his plant within a short distance of a newly planned Lithium mine. I wonder if he may buy it up to ensure his supply. There may be an investment opportunity there. It’s cheap now, but I think that may change within the next couple years. The price of Lithium is going now where but up if they follow the Lithium battery path. It’s already of limited supply.

        • Billy Jackson

          you start throwing around triple digit COP.. my mind explodes with possibilities that frankly makes me just a bit giddy at the thought!

          • Omega Z

            Billy
            I don’t think triple digit COP is feasible. But I take into consideration all energies used including the controls.

            I also note that in R&D labs where COP=1000 in some situations usually involve energy only to start the process, But Those are always in milliwatt process. Those numbers quickly disappear once scaled anywhere near usable.

            Ultimately, COP=20 works fine, especially if 50% conversion to Electricity is possible. That’s a 10 to 1 return & 9 of that is useable for whatever it’s needed for. The -1 being looped back for control the E-cat of course.

            I think many people are confusing concepts on the COP. If you need another 1000 watts out of the 10Kw E-cat already at COP=20, You best get another E-cat. Even at infinite COP, Your not getting another 1000 watts, EVER. At best, 500 watts & highly improbable. AND Who wants a device with zero control.

        • Fyodor

          I don’t think that this is correct.

          I think that Rossi has said that individual Hot-Cats have better SSM/COP than individual warm-cats because they need to be able to be used individually in homes, rather than in an array/cascade. I don’t think that individual hot-cats have better COP than the 1MW plant as a whole. So we could be talking about a COP of 10 rather than 6.

          See below from Rossi.

          “Very interesting question.In domestic applications we will not have multiple reactors to make up synergies as it is happening with the 1MW plant; for this reason, the low temperature E-Cats are less efficient: the COP of the Hot Cat, when utilized in mono-assemblies, is higher. As I said before, E-Cats are very complex things, much more complex than it appears.”

        • Fyodor

          Also, while we’ll see a drop in electricity costs, there’s still real capital costs involved in converting heat to electricity. And people have been trying to do that for a long time-we’re unlikely to have any huge breakthroughs any time soon.

        • Omega Z

          Frank
          I think Rossi’s interest in batteries is as a jump start for Isolated zones. Providing electricity to these zones is complex & expensive. Following is some of the issues.

          Power plants need External power to start up & for ongoing control.
          External power requires a Grid feed line over 100’s of miles along with sub stations to get to many of these zones.”$$$”

          They need, A major roadway, Railway or pipeline to transport fuel. Having invested large sum$ for infrastructure to get to this point, you usually build a large facility that also requires large quantities of cooling water(Which aren’t always available).

          You now have power for a few 100 or 1000’s of people at the cost of 100’s of millions of even in the Billion$ category. Many countries can not justify the high costs to service a few people. Especially when they are focused on the necessity of food & medical issues.

          One of the Last Things that come up in discussions in building these power plants in isolated areas is the on going fuel costs. The reason for that is the cost of everything that comes before is already so insurmountable.

          Throw in 3 or 4 small E-cat generating plants & you have a Micro-grid that supply power to each other for external power control. Being small, there economical for using cooling towers for condensing the the waste steam. Large bodies of water are not necessary nor is the infrastructure to transport fuel.

          Using a battery pack only to start up the Micro-grid & as backup should for some reason it all goes down. It requires no fuel or mechanical maintenance & is always on standby. The same can’t be said for a Genset and fuel kept on hand for a Genset also needs refreshed periodically. Gas/Diesel goes bad. Nuke plants require the dumping & replacing of this fuel like every 3 months.

          It now becomes feasible to provide electricity to isolated small villages. Requiring funding in the low millions & no ongoing fossil fuel costs. None. Not even for a Genset…

  • hunfgerh

    The h2sucofu think-tank says:

    The Primärenergieverbrauch1) of the world (energy for heating, electricity and transport) is z. Z. 522 EJ or 14.5 x 10exp13 kWh per year. This energy comes to 33% from oil, 30% from Coal, 24% from natural gas, 7% from hydroforce, 4%from uranium and 2% from
    renewable energy (Wind, solar, Nachw. Raw materials, etc.).

    Based on today’s consumption, Oil, gas and uranium to the middle of this century are consumed. This is followed by coal around the middle of the next century.

    That is to say, must by mid-century on 60% until the middle of next century about 90% of the
    previous energy sources by renewable energy – which accounts for 2% at present – to be replaced.

    Nachw. Raw Materials should be excluded in principle, as a substitute for primary energy
    production. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand are Nachw. Raw
    materials to consumption of Oil / gas and coal, the only remaining carbon
    source for many chemical Processes and industrial products, but above all they
    are food and feed source.

    The power supply of mobile assets, such as land, air and water vehicles takes
    place, in mass by Oil / natural gas (3.2 x 10exp13 kWh). Calculations to supply and
    consumption say, as already mentioned, for the middle of this century, the end
    of these energy sources ahead. A substitute for oil / natural gas, which in
    sufficient quantities for all eternity is available, is not in sight. Changes
    because nothing breaks mid-century mobility largely together. The resulting
    induced economic subsequent reactions plunge the world into chaos. With this in
    mind, we tried to date to push out. For you can go the following way:

    -Mention should once Fracking, a method to “last drop” of oil / gas
    from Rock formations to force out. This method is experiencing a real boom. To
    what extent the establishment of ad hoc chemical cocktail an has adverse effect
    on our ground water, is controversial.

    – Secondly, by admixture of hydrocarbons for gasoline, or complete replacement
    of fuel by hydrocarbons obtained from renewable resources wins. Keywords here
    are E10 and Biodiesel.

    Suitable renewable raw materials for this are mainly food and feed crops such
    as wheat, maize, sugar beet / pipe, rape, soya, among others. This humans,
    animals and machines are directly as competitors for food/ feed compared to.
    The necessary to meet demand excessive crops additionally burdened the existing
    scarce drinking water and Phosphate inventories. A rising world population, the
    rising mandatory livestock and a growing machinery entails, results in a escalation
    of this situation.

    To de-escalate the overall situation mobile systems must as soon as possible
    from resources – hydrocarbon – be decoupled. As an alternative for short journeys
    the battery is an option. For long distance come as an environmentally friendly
    and ever available resources hydrogen in question. Procedures to about 2 x 10exp13
    m3 / a hydrogen are produced. The production of hydrogen from seawater –
    desalination and over Electrolysis – however is energy intensive (to produce
    hydrogen in a m3 minimum 3 times more energy than during the combustion of a
    hydrogen m3 are released).

    Whether battery or hydrogen, where does the energy come from? Wind and
    sun is the sole supplier of energy for the necessary mass production because of
    ist depending on time of day and weather no reliable partner. For downtime
    of wind / solar energy would be nuclear energy a suitable stop-gap. The nuclear
    fission but we have just turned their backs, for understandable reasons.
    Nuclear fusion of Hydrogen – will release in a minimum 3 times more energy than
    their Activation is consumed – is currently: unfortunately only on the drawing
    board are available.

    New materials such as RT superconductors could help in solving the problems.The
    preparation and use of such superconductors has therefore the center of gravity
    of all be further considerations.

    This is a google translation from
    https://sites.google.com/site/h2sucofu/home/2050-was-nun-1

    1) http://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/article remain 122,644,763 / oil-and
    coal-and-gas

  • GreenWin

    Yes royalty used scratchy linen for buttwipes, you forgot salad in the fridge, and civil liberties are natural rights – not entitlements. But a great collection of thoughts fp! THX.

    • Omega Z

      Civil Liberties were not always considered Natural Rights.
      As a Subject of the King, You only had the rights he afforded you.
      Just saying…

      Ohh, And King can be replaced by any entity of power.

  • oaklandthinktank

    We often focus on how ‘cool that’d be’, and forget Adam Smith’s lesson: if I can grow veggies OR wool, and *so can you*, we will tend to trade with each other according to our COMPARATIVE advantage. No, not our absolute efficacy. No, not based upon high-minded ideals. I shear wool twice as well as I grow veggies; you are slightly better at veggies than you are at wool; I gather wool, and trade for your veggies.

    We muddle that in our minds, alongside the concept of HIGH CAPITAL => LOW UNIT COSTS. “If I make a factory that produces millions of these, then they’ll all be CHEAPER…” But… Cheaper isn’t what determines who does what.

    If you spend $1k on cookware, and you have fresh ingredients and seasoning, you can make a tasty meal. Spend $1mil on industrial cookware, and you have a five-star restaurant. But, $100mil on cookware does not make delicacies – that’s FritoLays. Our economy supports ALL these activities, and Frito makes a lot of money, but so do restaurants, and plenty of folks cook at home to save money, or because they can make it how they like it.

    So, the missing ingredient in analysis of LENR: comparative QUALITY. FritoLays can get more profits per month from their cookware than you do. But, everyone and their mother owns their own skillet and pot, because FritoLays cannot produce the QUALITY that you can.

    If anyone with a $10k kit can build reactors, and those reactors are of SIMILAR QUALITY as reactors made from the $10bil fabrication facility, ONLY THEN will DIY LENR bloom. Either way, you’ll still have abundant access to industrial energy utilities, just like you have access to expensive dining. And, collecting dust at home, next to your Cuisinart, will be your CF reactor.

    However, if, like the computer industry, LENR requires a minimum investment of $100mil to make a factory which produces a QUALITY product, then you are all screwed. Sure, you might be able to power you OWN home. Capitalists know to focus on PERFORMANCE specs: if your pet project won’t have a QUALITY advantage, then you will have no demand for power from your neighbors.

    Successful businesses understand that it is not so important to undercut your competitors’ PRICES. Far more valuable is to target Quality Performance, Quality Service, and being able to do things that the competitors JUST CAN’T. If international bankster industrialists find a high-quality, albeit expensive, production method, that’s exactly where public knowledge of R&D stops. Skunk works get way more funding than art projects.

    My bet? We’ll be kept dumb by police-state terrorism while industrialists charge us through the nose for power they get for free. Our best alternative? Make an organism that produces LENR filaments. ‘Wooly algae’ could produce tailored cellulose structures, and deposite all that oceanic Lithium within the lattice… pyrolysis, and Ni(CO)4 deposition… voila! CF lightbulbs from a single-celled ‘factory’ that anyone can use.

    Also, long-term value of energy production depends upon the *functions* that the energy serves. Anywhere that electricity or heat is REALLY profitable… it’s there already. LENR will sop up all the MARGINAL energy demand, and act as an ENERGY-INTENSIVE substitute for things that are COMPARATIVELY labor- or resource-intensive. These substitutions drive down demand for the labor and resources they *replace*… evaporating the income of periphery-economy nations. What are the most profitable functions served by cheap energy? They’re all going to use heavy equipment, dangerous chemicals, and big investors. And, their efficacy grows as they SCALE, but also grows with DENSITY. LENR’s mature form, in 50 years, will be state-sponsored R&D islands, where oceanic currents carry away the exajoule/hr of exhaust heat. You and your mini-cat won’t have proper clearance.

    • Omega Z

      You overlook the fact that most people are of limited ability. One may be an excellent brain surgeon, but mucks up an oil change & calls a roadside service for a flat tire because he doesn’t know how to work the jack. He says, A What?

      Also, Mass produced products are cheaper then I can even buy the materials for. They can buy bulk $20 a ton what costs me $20 for a pound at the hardware store. If I build it & it doesn’t work, I start over. If I buy it & it don’t work, they replace it under warranty. They also cover million$ liabilities that I can’t.

      This technology will have a major impact on society as a whole, but not so much at the individual level. Just everything will be cheaper.

  • Thor

    Last I checked, events 50 years in the future are well beyond the Singularity and therefore, by definition, cannot be accurately predicted 😉

    Once you get the engineering of LENR nailed down and you close the loop, you effectively have free energy. Your only costs become become fuel and maintenance. That’s disruptive enough, but what happens when you combine “free” energy with advanced robotics, AI, asteroid mining, and vertical farming?

    I don’t think we can treat LENR as though it exists in a technological vacuum. I think it’s an enabling technology that will, when combined with other disruptive technologies that are in the pipeline, drop the unit cost of EVERYTHING to near 0. I’d invest in real estate. In 20 or 30 years it’ll be about the only thing that can’t be designed, mined, manufactured and distributed by robots/AI for (effectively) free.

    • bullditnow

      Thor, well, the combination of the singularity and cold fusion, phew, a head spinner.

      If humans still exist after the singularity, then, real estate, what about large space based ships as a new form of real estate?
      But, before the singularity, cold conditions and ice don’t matter much. Russia has the largest land area, followed by Canada. Perhaps these countries will really move ahead.
      Saudi Arabia has bauxite, add cold fusion and aluminum could replace much of steel.
      Desert areas close to the sea could become lush with desalinated water.
      The roads could be clogged with RV’s, but, automated flying cars are very likely, so who wants an old slow RV any more. Will much of the roads be torn up? Will the power lines come down?

      The very first effect could be a shock, a bit like the 2008 financial shock in that it will be hard to figure out the ramifications. Stocks markets could move around a lot.
      After that it get’s hard to predict.

      Right now, the shocking reality is how the vast majority of people are unaware of what is coming very soon. Even when I let friends know, the vast majority snooze on, just don’t get it.

    • AdrianAshfield

      There is lots of ocean. Not difficult or very expensive to build “floating islands” that might group to form towns. LENR solves the problem of power supply.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Productivity and technology, has been and is going to be increasingly
    disruptive. I see it as a multiplying
    effect that probably started at the beginning of the industrial revolution, similar
    to Moore’s law. LENR might be the technology that will send the trend into
    hyper drive. There have been and will be
    huge increasing opportunities for people, so inclined, to take advantage of
    these disruptions to gain money and power. In the short run, the next twenty
    years, I think the main problem will be society/governments adjusting to the
    new realities and deciding how to divvy up the fruits of productivity and
    technology and not allow people to be too greedy by taking advantage of the disruptions. If history
    is any judge, society/governments have adjusted, but far too slow to prevent revolution
    and bloodshed. Sorry for being so
    gloomy.

  • Jimmy V

    Poverty will end–both physically and mentally. No Singularity. Machines are dead matter. They are not conscious and never will be.
    Humans will discover what Consciousness is truly about and will therefore learn how to use their minds to a much greater degree than ever before.
    All of Nature extends and entangles its consciousness with ours. Ecological unification. Ecological abundance in a profusion of fish jumping from the seas. Intelligence beyond anything considered before.
    Free energy will give humanity more room to think. And we will truly learn how. . .