This is What I Know for Sure (Roger Bird)

The following post has been submitted by Roger Bird

The following is what I am certain of with regard to cold fusion:

LENR is real:

Mike McKubre observed real LENR repeatedly at SRI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtweR_qGHEc

Pam Mosier-Boss observed real LENR repeatedly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLuTRReSIrg

This is not an exhaustive list, but it is sufficient for me to be certain that LENR exists.

As far as LENR+ and the E-Cat is concerned, the following 2 links gives me certainty:

The 2013 Ferrara report: http://arxiv.org/abs/1305.3913

The 2014 Lugano report: http://www.elforsk.se/Global/Omv%C3%A4rld_system/filer/LuganoReportSubmit.pdf

Beyond that, there are greater or lesser degrees of uncertainty, but no absolute certainty.

Did Darden and Vaughn observe excess heat? Probably.

Did the 1 year 1 MW plant fail? I don’t know, and this is the really big uncertainty.

Is Darden and Vaughn stabbing Rossi in the back? I don’t know.

Is Rossi difficult to work with? Almost certainly.

Is the value and certainty of Fabiano Fulvio’s testimony trashed? For me, thanks to this E-Cat bickering, certainly. Hopefully this is only temporary, but for now I cannot believe what he had to say.

I invite people to present links that show certainty or at least greater certainty on various aspects of the LENR and LENR+ than I have presented I am sure that I have failed to list many certainties. We need to keep track of these certainties and bring them to mind every now and then so as to not become discouraged. I will copy and save any links that improve certainty, and I will appreciate anyone giving us those links.

Respectfully submitted,

Roger Bird, aka bachcole

  • Bob

    I would have to question your listing of the Lugano report as good reason for certainty.
    .
    Almost all of the Pro-LENR scientist have dismissed this report as extremely flawed, possibly fatally so. Ranging COP from .9 to 1.2, which could still be in the percentage of error due to the extremely high energy level being measured. It is not a simple task! I visit Vortex-L frequently and there have been many very good, reasonable, “un-emotional” discussions about the Lugano report and the majority conclusion seems that it is seriously flawed. Others such as Bob Greenyer have also posted conclusions with supporting evidence that it is flawed. While emotions run high, we do need to look at the facts as you state.
    .
    The Lugano testers have gone completely silent and not responded to any questions or critiques. Normally, a testing group would answer logical and reasonable questions about their work, this is how peer review works. For some reason, nothing is heard from them at all.
    .
    The fuel analysis was extremely interesting, but also quite controversial. The fact that Rossi did not allow anyone to handle the fuel will automatically inject large uncertainly to some. To others, it is of no concern at all. However, it is a fact that must be considered. My personal take on it is that it makes the fuel analysis uncertain. Rossi has admitted before (with Defkalion) that he switched the sauce so to speak to protect his IP. He is extremely protective of it. I am not stating that he did, I am just stating that without confirmation or replication, the Lugano fuel analysis cannot be held as uncontroversial. It is suspect.
    .
    Unfortunately, if Lugano is removed, that reduces the certainty factor list by 50%.
    .
    I agree with you that Rossi seems difficult to work with. The supporting evidence is that ALL announced major companies have walked away from Rossi even though they could have been involved in the biggest discovery of the century. Seimens, National Instruments, NASA and now IH. Per Rossi’s words, these entities were intimately involved to some degree and yet they all walked away. This is quite telling.
    .
    The biggest detractor in my opinion to the eCat saga is Rossi himself. He has continuously posted about “Robotised factories” ready for production since 2012. Yet he posts in recent months that he is working with ABB to develop his production line. Posted since 2012 that the eCat will be on the market within 6 months, but never is. Even November of 2015.. if the ERV report is positive, production will start very quickly. He has posted about secret customers and tests before (again 2012) but nothing every came of it. His mode of operandi seems to be… always secret, always NDA’s, always big and important players. Yet it never really turns out.
    .
    Things do happen with projects. Sometimes snafus develop. Yet I have followed this saga for 5 years and we are no closer to knowing for sure whether the eCat works or not. This is my biggest negative. With a COP of 6, there should be no question by now. During that same 5 years, Musk has launched rockets into space and landed one on a boat! There were failures and setbacks yes! But no one doubts he did what he said he did! This story should and could be similar but it is not. That is a big negative.
    .
    At some point I had to ask myself… when will all the BS quit and the truth be known? So far, 5 years has not been long enough evidently!

    • f sedei

      Frustrating, indeed. But understandably so.Rossi’s endeavors should not be compared to Musk’s. Musk is working with known science and technology. LENR is an absolutely new and little unknown phenomenon. We really still don’t know what LENR is. It is in it’s infancy in the scientific world. Yet, to my way of thinking, enough has been accomplished through Rossi research to prove LENR is real and to gain patents. That in itself is a brilliant unrelenting accomplishment by the genius, Andrea Rossi. Patience–the best is yet to come (we all hope).

      • cashmemorz

        We, at least some of us are sure you mean “known phenomenon”. Knowledge/grammar police have spoken.

    • Lux Terrea

      Well stated. There is no iron clad evidence for Rossi’s e-cat. I wish there was. I want it to be true but nothing has yet been proven.

    • bachcole

      The Lugano report is certain enough for me. I don’t care that Pro-LENR scientists have dismissed this report.

      • Pekka Janhunen

        To me also the Lugano report is good enough. In the sense that the COP value might be somewhat overestimated in it, but their conclusion COP>1 seems robust to me.
        Everything that can be done can be done better, but also “better” is the enemy of “good”.

      • Anon2012_2014

        Roger/Bach,

        Lugano was not run for long enough and had too much internal volume (material) that could have been chemically combusted. For all we know, Lugano could have combusted the cylinder. Worse, the amount of charge in the system was not conclusively measured as the mass before and after was the same, with Rossi removing the fuel behind the curtain. This unchanged measurement suggest measurement error.

        Finally, the measurements were made on unknown emissivity of the unit.

        I will wait for a more conclusive test than Lugano. I suspect that LENR is a fact, but i can’t say proven beyond doubt.

    • Stanny Demesmaker

      You miss a few keypoints of the lugano report

      -IH build the reactor
      -Rossi had nothing to do with the test setup
      -Even on vortex the consensus was that there was excess heat
      -the testers didn’t use the SSM

      The question with Rossi is not that he can generate Kw’s of excess heat it’s that he can create a commercial ready reactor.

      • I.e., one which can be built at reasonable cost, turns on/off easily and is controllable (safe from thermal runaway), is safe and requires minimal operator attention, and from which heat can be freely extracted without quenching the nucleonic reaction.

        All in all, probably quite a jump from a bench prototype (‘quark’) or even from a running prototype (‘pilot plant’).

      • bob

        I would make a couple of corrections to your list, at least to my understanding.
        .
        1) IH may have made the reactor tube (we have nothing bur Rossi says for this), but we have no confirmation that IH made the fuel or any internal parts. Many have assumed this, but we do not know. IH responsed to the lawsuit stating they could not substantiate the eCat. I suspect it relates to the fuel, not the reactor tube.
        .
        2) Rossi certainly had much to do with the test setup. The Lugano report states that Rossi loaded and unloaded the fuel into the reactor. That they were not allowed to handle it. I am not saying that Rossi did anything wrong, but it is not correct to state that he had nothing to do with the test.
        .
        3) I would agree that the consensus on Vortex-l was that there MAY have been excess heat. but only a very small amount if any. If the question only pertained to LENR, then I would say yes, it is evidence. If the question does the eCat work at high COP for sustained periods, then the Lugano test does nothing to confirm that at all.
        .
        4) We do not have any evidence that there is a SSM, much less that they could have used it. Again, a Rossi says, but no confirmation of any kind on this! We could say that they did not use a Quark-X and produce electricity directly, but it would fall under the same category. There is no data that says SSM has ever been seen except “Rossi says”. (I believe replicator ME-356 states he has seen SSM, but I do not know how close his setup is to the eCat. It could be good evidence, I have not followed his experiment to date)
        .
        Truthfully, without the “Rossi says” posts, we would not even be here discussing this. 99% of what this blog discuss come from only one source… Rossi posts. We have to remember that even the lawsuit is a Rossi says… IH has stated it is without merit. I do not know which is right. Probably as with most things in the world, it is not black or white, but shades of gray. Bits of truth in the Rossi says and truth in what IH will say. One will have to analyze them together to see who is telling the “most truth”! 🙂

    • Michael W Wolf

      Or it could be anomalous heat. This is so big that every worth while scientist should have been interested long ago. And since they weren’t, They are the worthless scientists of the future yesteryear. A world changing energy source even hinted at should have been funded fully. It is evil what has happened in LENR. And all the BS came from LENR deniers. They have stunted the freeing of the world. And I hate them for it.

    • Omega Z

      Seimens, Consulted about minimum requirements of steam output and quality to power their smallest turbine generator. This was pre-Hot cat. Only the low temp reactor existed at that time.

      National Instruments, Was Consulted about electronic controls. It was about this time that Rossi engaged Fulvio Fabiani to build custom controls and software to control the e-cats.

      The Lugano team are doing their own research. Like most everyone else, they have little to say. I find it highly probable that should Rossi become silent, that would be used against him as evidence that he has nothing.

      People either don’t know or forget that the reason Rossi went public to begin with is due to Focardi. By late 2010, Focardi was concerned about health issues and age and wanted to see LENR go public while still around to witness it. Rossi was actually concerned that his technology wasn’t mature enough for public demo’s. Note this was stated by Focardi himself in a video.

      Bob, Your posts read much like a new energy times article. Is that where you get all your info or is Bob just a Krivit pseudonym.

      HOT FUSION: At some point I had to ask myself… when will all the BS quit and the truth be known? So far, 50+ years and hundreds of Billion$ has not been enough evidently!

      • cashmemorz

        Whether Hot fusion is BS or not is not the issue for those funding(concerned governments) hot fusion. It is a last hope for saving the environment, AT ALL COSTS. To entertain BS or scam is something that cannot be allowed to enter their consciousness. Such a truth would be too much too bear. Also lobbyists for hot fusion are continuing their hard work and it is probably getting harder for them the more success LENR shows. LENR was talked about as a possibilty on Capitol Hill last year. It didn’t seem to cause much waves. Probably the show didn’t promise enough. Based on this scenario I expect the war against LENR to increase in strength.

  • Mark Underwood

    “I invite people to present links that show certainty or at least greater certainty on various aspects of the LENR and LENR+ ”

    One video I enjoy is this one:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxBJjWzlKl0
    where various people, in particular Stanislaw Szpak, give accounts of their experience. I just love Szpak’s excitement over what he is convinced of: cold fusion is real. He is convinced because he is a seasoned experimentalist and he knows what he has seen, conventional abstract theory be damned.

    That being said, I’m no seeker of ‘certainty’ in these things. I’ve become fond of the journey of suspense and the unfolding of what has been unknown. What is really going on in ‘cold fusion’ is really unknown to me. Whether Rossi actually has a greatly enhanced version of cold fusion is uncertain to me. What I do know is that I enjoy giving people like Rossi the benefit of the doubt. He is intelligent, tenacious, passionate and industrious in energy research , and I admire that. He seems principled and and ethical to me. In short, I believe the guy.

    At the same time, I haven’t forgotten a video I viewed last year, a video taken some years ago by Krivit interviewing Rossi, showing Rossi struggling to do simple calorimetric calculations on an early version of the eCat he was demonstrating to Krivit. It remains truly puzzling to me. More contrast, contradiction, and uncertainty. Bring it on.

    • uDevil

      That’s a great video! The only thing I am certain of is uncertainty. But there are levels of uncertainty… I hope we can get a better understanding of CF. As for Rossi, he may be even more complicated than CF.

  • lkelemen

    for me the fact is enough that Rossi is suing IH

    • Alex Fenrick

      Without knowing the facts yet….it really makes no sense that the lawsuit that will expose the facts would be your actual fact to know what is going on. That just makes no sense to me.

  • adriano

    Who is Fulvio Fabiano? Is he the “I have saw unbelivable things” guy? And why his credibility is trashed also thanks to this website? Can someone answer please?

    • Frank Acland

      Yes, he is the engineer who worked under contract with Industrial Heat on the 1MW plant. I haven’t seen anything that would undermine his credibility.

      • sam

        Was he not Rossi man since 2012.
        If so why was he under contract with I.H.

  • georgehants

    It would be far more useful if instead of us being in the position of speculating on personal beliefs, to have Mr. Rossi actually do something to PROVE the reality of commercial Cold Fusion.
    Five years and counting and some people are still going along as if this whole situation does not reflect the insanity of our society’s.

    • LarryJ

      Your suggestion can only be accomplished by products in the market. Over the past 5 years we have had several convincing demos, tests and reports and they all failed to create so much as a ripple in public perception. You are suggesting that Rossi abandon his focus on bringing products to market and instead focus on convincing the world by performing more so called irrefutable useless demos, tests and reports.

      Your suggestion is very counter productive.

      • georgehants

        ll

        • LarryJ

          Your suggestion is counter productive because you think setting up an irrefutable demo is an easy task. It is not easy, in fact Rossi knows that it’s impossible. Generally speaking impossible tasks can be very time consuming. Rossi has no time to waste on pointless demos and irrefutable proofs that are meaningless in terms of reaching his goal. His competitors are now snapping at his heels and he needs to move as quickly as possible and with as great a focus as he can possibly muster. Once he has product in the market you will have your irrefutable demo and Rossi will have his place in history.

          “No previous test has been freely open for all to observe and measure independently.”

          This comment of yours illustrates perfectly why no test can ever be designed that would satisfy your criteria. No matter how he might design a test this comment is exactly how you and many others would evaluate it. No matter what he does it would become just one more seriously flawed test among many, in your view. The only flawless test is the one you can plug into your living room wall and test for yourself and fortunately for all of us, Rossi knows this.

  • Do people pay an additional 10 million dollars after they already paid 1.5 million dollars to see if something actually works and then say it doesn’t work? Certainly not.
    Do people fight over things that don’t work? Certainly not. Are people greedy? Certainly
    If the Ecat works as Rossi says it does do you think it will be easy for him to bring it to the market? Certainly not. If the Ecat works as advertised will Rossi have enemies working to stop him? Certainly. If Rossi’s Ecat works as advertised who would be his biggest enemy? Other Energy Interest (Entire Countries), most certainly.
    Does Industrial Heat have a conflict of interest when it comes to promoting the Ecat? Most Certainly.

    Is Saudi Arabia scrambling to “get off of oil” Certainly.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-21/the-2-trillion-project-to-get-saudi-arabia-s-economy-off-oil

    Is Rossi the only company racing to get out a LENR based product? Certainly Not.

    • We assume the latter must be the case, but actual evidence for the assumption is depressingly thin on the ground. That the trouble with secrecy I suppose – it’s impossible for watchers to know what’s going on.

    • Rossi Fan

      Not so fast with the $10 big ones. Nowhere in the discussion has anybody questioned Pinon’s financial state. It is awfully suspicious that the same guy who they used to verify the initial $10 was hired to evaluate the balance $90. The fact that there is only one person ERV completely taints the process and renders it questionable. Nowhere in the discussion has anybody bothered to ask Rossi whether or not IH was pressured to use Pinon after a “take it or leave it” ultimatum?

      The $10 is proof of genius. If it is a scam then Rossi is great. If it is not a scam then Rossi is great. Either way at this point the man has proved himself.

      • Tom59

        The electricity bill of the customer together with his production files would be the ultimate proof. Rumor (Mats) indicates they are positive. Let’s see…

      • LarryJ

        Penon was the agreed referee. Both parties signed off on his selection for that role and I would imagine that IH were aware of who he was. The report was never designed to validate the tech to the public so saying that the selection of a single referee tainted the process is meaningless. The ERV was selected to support the fulfilling of a contractual obligation between two parties. It is difficult to imagine Rossi pressuring IH to use a referee they did not support when so much depended on him.

      • cashmemorz

        Yes he is. Except for one ethical or moral view. One view shows AR as a great saint the other view as a great demon. My overall view of AR history tends toward the saintly side.

  • Bernie Koppenhofer

    Beware; we are entering a dangerous time for LENR. I saw and predicted this fight between Dr. Rossi and IH; on this site. Dr. Rossi, in a way, predicted what is happening right now; if you have been following his site JONP, he has been vigilant to not let Crony Capitalists (my words, Wikipedia definition) take control of his E-Cat IP. I am afraid it is happening right before our eyes, IH has hired the brightest and the best propagandists and legal minds to bend public opinion and our laws to take control of LENR. A landslide of misinformation and legal maneuvering is about to hit Dr. Rossi, his IP and E-Cat.

  • HS61AF91

    Maybe Edgar Cayce’es current reincarnation would help. That appears to be none other than David Wilcock, but suspect it may be out of his areas of expertise. His admonishment about co-operation is really pertinent, for sure.

  • HS61AF91

    Think about you own feelings, you own intuition, therein reside the grains of certainty, that becomes real!

  • Michael W Wolf

    There are no independent validators. You have those who believe in LENR and as such will be accused of being in on the scam. And those who say LENR is impossible. You call that independent? I call it conflict of interest. All these accusations directed towards people testing LENR is not legitimate. They demand proof of commercial LENR, yet don’t need proof to call people frauds and liars. LENR deniers have no business testing LENR, let alone anywhere near an LENR reactor, they had their chance and showed us all their true colors. Only believers in LENR should test LENR, and they will never be safe from slander. Why we even bother to worry about independent validators is beyond me and is like letting the fox to guard the hen house.

    • Alex Fenrick

      I think if we go on your premise that only believers in LENR should test LENR, you really set yourself up for not only slander…but biased failure. Like I have mentioned, I think a small panel of known respected individuals that do not have known first hand connections would satisfy even the skeptics. Even if any indirect connections are dug up by skeptics…I know this method would still be enough for me. I absolutely do get your perspective Michael, I just think this court case will draw out for years…and Rossi will find it harder over time to gain support unless he can bring product to market on his own (which he may very well have the means).

      • LarryJ

        Nothing will satisfy skeptics except products in the market.

        • Alex Fenrick

          Not true LarryJ….you have one right here…and I am quite sure there are many others especially in a situation I just described. Embrace the challenge of logical skeptics and ignore the trolls…it’s all part of the fringe game.

          • LarryJ

            There will always be a large group of skeptics who are more credible than Rossi. This large group of credible skeptics will scare off the press so that there will never be widespread mainstream coverage of the test or report in question.

      • Omega Z

        Alex,

        Rossi had no prior contacts with the Lugano team prior to the creation of the E-cat. He came to know them all due to independent tests.

        In essence, no one who tests the E-cat are any longer independent in the eyes of skeptics.

        Note also that 1 of Rossi’s antagonist’s was asked to participate in the Lugano test and refused. What was he afraid of.

  • Michael W Wolf

    No way, if Rossi is a fraud, he will go to jail. IH can’t go to jail. Rossi believes what he is suing for and in his mind is no fraud or he would already be long gone.

    • Bruce__H

      Why would Rossi go to jail if he loses this lawsuit?

    • Alex Fenrick

      Michael…this is not a criminal case…how and why would he go to jail? That doesn’t make sense.

  • Michael W Wolf

    Exactly right.

  • Bob

    This is a good question, and I am not sure what the protocol would be!
    You state that the judge would order a new independent test.
    .
    Who would pick the independent testers? The judge? He/she would have no technical knowledge about such things. Would MIT get appointed somehow? They are completely biased and would immediately be rejected by Rossi. I doubt that Rossi would ever accept an accredited testing agency as he has not done so in the past.
    .
    Who would build the reactor? Rossi? If so, would all the details be given and revealed? I believe this is part of the lawsuit.. IH may be claiming Rossi never gave them “the goods” so to speak.
    .
    AND who would pay for it? This would be expensive. In the tens of thousands of dollars. Is IH innocent until proven guilty? Do they have to pay to protect their reputation? Since Rossi brought the suit, would it be on him to prove it works and thus pay for it?
    (For 89 million, it would be a good return!). However, it is not trivial.
    .
    I am not sure that a judge would or could require an independent test. I am more inclined to think they would subpoena “experts” to testify whether the 1 year test was valid or not, depending on the data, how the data was collected and upon accepted theory. This of course would go against Rossi as most experts would give testimony that Cold Fusion is impossible. It would be very interesting to sit in the court room for sure!
    .
    ….So this got me to thinking on a somewhat unrelated topic…..
    .
    I wonder if I called Fox TV and offered a mini-series on the upcoming trial, I could sell them on it. Let’s see…. man once jailed in Italy for crimes, then exonerated….and now again being accused of fraud. … hmmm ….sounds a lot like the show “Making a murderer!” Elderly lone individual against “The Powers that Be”…. hmmm… sounds kind of like another recent movie as well. We have lies and subterfuge…. we have big dollars at stake… we have a touch of science fiction …. we have the Climate Change angle…. we have the Mid East oil Sultans… we have ruthless capitalists…. we have the down trodden, misunderstood, saintly man who is being warred against by the hurricane blogosphere! All the script I can take right from the posts on this site! Man, I see a #1, Oscar contending hit! Sign me up!….
    .
    🙂

    • Omega Z

      The Judge will never order another test. $$$$

      The Jury will judge the evidence already at hand. End of story…

  • Bruce__H

    Do you have legal experience? I’m trying to figure out why and on what authority a judge would do that.

  • Jerry Soloman

    Maybe Tom Darden will go to jail if it is found out there was an organized effort to defraud Rossi out of his IP.

  • Alex Fenrick

    I think in fairness it would be Darden’s pocket or Rossi’s pocket.

  • Brokeeper

    Thanks Roger. If IH somehow wins the judicial case they and all those associated with them eventually will loose public opinion and gain disgrace. Too much has been historically documented, thanks to the likes of Mats Lewans, USPTO, Lugano Report, replications, Frank Acland, and many others I should never forget, as to how and by whom the working LENR was born. No entity should ever steal an inventor’s well earned IP especially from one who will be responsible for the betterment of all societies. If what we assume to be true, I don’t know what IH/Darden is thinking to assume they will be blessed by such financial and heroic narcissism and “tricksies”.

    • LarryJ

      Don’t forget that this will be a trial by jury. It is hard to say what the judge might do but one thing he won’t do is deliver a verdict.

  • Brokeeper

    Once, not now, the E-Cat or other LENR device reaches the market you can be assured interest in all its evolution will peak and collaborated by many sectors of society.

  • Well, unfortunately they did not publish it … Only trying tp make as much sense as possible out of the information available .

  • psi2u2

    A very fair and judicious summary of the situation.

  • Mats002

    My personal investment in Woodford might be profitable then. But not the way I thought.

  • LarryJ

    By large group of skeptics more credible than Rossi I am referring to skeptics more credible to the press than Rossi. The mainstream hot fusion physicists for instance who may not be right about cold fusion and who may be concerned about the billions in funding hot fusion research would lose and without whose endorsement the press will certainly not publish positive news about cold fusion.

  • Mats002

    Ha ha! Yes the thrill they deliver is worth a fee!

  • Mats002

    This is the halleluja moment of MFMP after GS5.2 experiment:

    http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/home/mfmp-blog/519-the-cookbook-is-in-the-signal

    That run (GS5.2) was replicated by them last week (GS5.3) and the excess heat was repeated, there were some radiation again but not yet fully analysed. COP 1.1 (roughly).

  • bkrharold

    Of course there are many individuals who are either uninformed or have their own selfish reasons, but I blame corporations most of all for the suppression of LENR research and development. They hold the purse strings over most research funds, and have intimidated all but the boldest researchers from entering the field. Their iron grip on the media and its message has served them well to marginalize LENR, and discourage coverage. Of course they control many other aspects of our society not just LENR. My theory on why they hate LENR so much is because it has the potential to be truly democratizing, allowing the little guy to compete with the big corporations, and win. It could also make us all less dependent on those large conglomerates

  • “individuals who work for governments, corporations, businesses who “decide” to choose their beloved paradigm over the observations of many people, most of whom are reliable witnesses and observers. And these people choose their beloved paradigm often because they fail to self-examine their own motivations, many of which are greed, some of which are an unwillingness to change, fear of losing prestige, etc., etc.”
    But corp take just the backseat, and don’t forget corps are just people tied by common resources.