Thanks to bthprimo for sharing his perpective here. This was originally posted on this thread.
Hi. My first post on ECW!! I have seen a few posts here over the past few months suggesting to keep an eye on the energy markets for a hint that the Ecat report is coming. This may be the only area where I might be able to bring some insight to the ECW community.
I work on the trading floor at the CME in Chicago. I don’t trade energies (mostly trade grains), but I always have a crude oil window up and I watch it out of the corner of my eye. The other day (Sep 30th), the crude oil futures broke sharply and was down $3.50 from the previous close. There was quite a bit of chatter around the floor about it, but nobody could find a news story that would account for such a dramatic break in crude oil. There were a even few big energy traders around that were scratching their heads. The next day, the futures tried to bounce, but failed and fell off hard later in the session and the stock market got hammered. As PD noted above, we’re currently down another $1.75 in NYMEX and Brent today.
To me, this is a signal that the report is coming soon, and it is already causing ripples throughout the financial world. The people that trade the energy markets heavily are the most well informed people on the planet. The kind of people that monitor cell network congestion inside shopping malls rather than wait for a consumer spending report to come out, or spend billions installing private fiber lines to shave 7ms off their round trip times from New York to Chicago.
With all that is going on in the world in Ukraine and the Middle East, crude should be lurching it’s way toward 110 per barrel, not tumbling down to 88. I understand that it will be years before the Ecat has any real effect on gasoline consumption, but the futures markets are just a reflection of collective human emotions and perceptions.
BTW, I can’t thank Frank enough for maintaining this website, and thank you as well to all of the people who contribute their insight and wisdom in the comments section. I am extremely nervous and equally excited about the future.