We’ve been here before, waiting for an E-Cat event. Since Andrea Rossi went public in 2011 there have been various events and reports that have been widely anticipated by people interested in the E-Cat, yet to date there has not really been the breakthrough that many observers have hoped for; namely, bulletproof evidence for his technology being commercially ready energy production technology which is superior in many ways to others currently availabchle in terms of efficiency, power density and cleanness.
However, I continue to live in hope that we will reach this point, although I am experienced enough now not to make firm predictions about when that will happen. From what I can gather, based on Rossi’s comments and answers to various questions, the situation is something like this:
Rossi is working with a partner who is supporting him in his research and development on the QuarkX. The partner has agreed to provide further support if he can show the QuarkX reaction is reliable enough to be used in commercial products. The partner has set Rossi a high bar — he needs to show to a level of 5 Sigma (99.9999 per cent probability) that his QuarkX reaction is not some kind of mistake or accident. Rossi is currently collecting data from one of his QuarkX reactors with the goal of hitting the 5 Sigma mark. Rossi has There are apparently millions of ‘events’ or data points that have been recorded in the operation of one of the QuarkXs under test, and these data points continued to be recorded. If Rossi and his team eventually hit the 5 Sigma point, then it will trigger a new investment from Rossi’s new partner, which will allow for the mass production of QuarkX reactors to begin. Initially these reactors will be used to build industrial plants which will be the first commercial QuarkX products. Rossi has said that he thought it would takes months to achieve the 5 Sigma goal, but hopes he can reach it by February 2017.
According to Rossi, the current plan is, if the 5 Sigma goal is reached, he will then conduct some kind of official presentation and demonstration of the QuarkX reactor. Rossi has declined to give many details about this presentation, except that he has mentioned it will include some kind of dummy reactor.
This seems to be the current plan. We know that there can certainly be delays, changes, disappointments and surprises in this story, so whether things come off this way, we’ll have to wait and see.
I followed up with Andrea Rossi with some questions on this topic today. Here is the Q&A:
Trying to get a better picture of the 5 Sigma testing, may I ask:
1) Is the testing related to product reliability? AR: yes
2) Is each ‘event’ you are measuring some kind of activation of the QuarkX? AR: also
3) Is your partner a manufacturer? AR: yes